18 December 2014

Crude Oil & Indian Market !!! :: IIFL

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Dear Sir 

Indian Equity markets have been in turmoil over the last one week owing to concern about the effects of plunging Crude oil prices on oil exporting countries .As lower oil prices may transform into significant inventory losses initially and may have ripple effect on the earning of oil companies in the near term.

We believe that Crude oil being within US$60 to US$70/bbl range shall be positive for equity markets .However ,Crude oil dropping below US$50/bbl may be adverse in the near term for equity markets ,as it may have contrary effects on countries like Russia ,Brazil ,etc .That may trigger outflows from Indian Markets .

Indian being a net importer of Crude oil shall structurally benefit from lower oil prices in the long term ,Since it improves Government finances ,reduces inflationary pressures to a large extent and improves Current Account Balances .However ,these improvements come into effect with a lag ,and till that time market sentiments could be negative .And this does not change our long term positive view on equities, and we continue to believe that equities will generate reasonable returns over the next three years .

We believe that a sharp fall in the equities markets ,owing to sentimental setback ,has given an opportunity for investors to invest in equities .We strongly recommend investors to invest today and continue investing over the next 8 to 9 months in equity funds .

OUR TOP RECOMMENDATIONS:               

 For conservative investors 
Inception
AUM (Cr.)
Returns

Scheme Name




1D
1W
1M
3M
6M
1Y
2Y
3Y
YTD
YTM(%)
AAA & Equiv(%)
Birla SL Dynamic Bond Fund-Ret(G)
Sep-04
10025
120.5
48.6
34.8
27.4
15.2
15
10.9
10.7
15.4
--
99.7
HDFC High Interest Fund-Dynamic Plan(G)
Apr-97
928
139.3
57
38
31.9
17.3
17
11.2
10.8
17.3
8.3
96.7
ICICI Pru Dynamic Bond Fund-Reg(G)
Jun-09
688
121.6
52.9
29.6
25.9
14.7
14.4
10.2
9.8
14.5
7.9
92.6
Reliance Dynamic Bond(G)
Nov-04
4278
141.2
52.9
39.3
31.2
16.7
16
10.5
10.9
16.3
--
95.4

FOR  AGGRESSIVE INVESTORS 

Scheme Name
Inception
AUM (Cr.)
Returns
Asset Allocation


1D
1W
1M
2M
3M
6M
1Y
2Y
3Y
LC (%)
MC (%)
Debt & Cash (%)
DSPBR Micro-Cap Fund-Reg(G)
Jun-07
1682
-3.3
-3.3
-2.0
10.6
9.4
33.8
102.7
40.0
38.6
4.6
53
4.9
HSBC Midcap Equity Fund(G)
May-05
290
-2.1
-2.8
-2.0
6.9
4.4
18.9
89.3
30.2
33.9
22.9
56
5.4
ICICI Pru Midcap Fund-Reg(G)
Oct-04
1066
-2.0
-3.7
-1.8
10.4
6.0
22.6
89.7
38.0
37.6
57.0
27
8.7
Reliance Small Cap Fund(G)
Sep-10
1320
-3.1
-2.3
-1.7
4.7
4.6
28.9
101.6
44.5
42.5
12.2
30
14.9
-- 

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