31 July 2013

Axis Bank :: Initiate coverage: Microsec

Axis Bank Ltd
Source: Company, ACE Equity, Microsec Research
Axis Bank is the third largest Private Sector Bank (in terms of business and
profitability) to have begun operations in 1994. As on 31st March 2013, the
Bank’s balance sheet size crossed over INR3.4 trillions with strong distribution
network of 1947 branches and 11245 ATMs spread across the country. It also
has overseas offices in Singapore, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Colombo, Dubai and
Abu Dhabi. It differentiated itself from other players in the industry through its
excelling in customer delivery through insight, empowered employees and
innovative use of technology coupled with its ubiquitous branches and ATMs.
Axis Bank is one of the few Indian Banks, which has smartly managed to
transform itself into a true financial conglomerate with its presence in core
banking besides, Insurance, Asset Management, Mutual Fund, Broking, Home
Finance etc.
We Initiate Coverage on Axis Bank with a BUY rating. Our rating underpins
the Bank’s strong business growth momentum, diversified revenue stream,
healthy low cost deposits (CASA) base which leads to improve in Net Interest
Margin (NIM), improving core income with healthy profitability, strong risk
management, improving asset quality with healthy Provision Coverage Ratio
(PCR), in-depth assessment of capital with strong Capital Adequacy Ratio
(CAR), improving cost efficiency, healthy Return Ratios and last but not least,
well aligned bank with the regulator’s guideline.
Axis Bank has managed to keep return ratios healthy. Among its peers it is
better placed in terms of strong return ratios. It has delivered ROE and ROA of
~19% and 1.7% respectively in FY13. We believe that Axis is likely to maintain
its return ratios over the next couple of years and may deliver ~1.6% and ~18%
ROA andROE respectively in FY15E .
On the basis of P/BV, Axis Bank is trading at lower valuation amongst top five
Private Banks. At the CMP of INR1190, the stock is trading at FY13 P/BV of
1.68x. The current valuation of 1.46x FY14E and 1.27x FY15E Book Value looks
attractive. We recommend a BUY on the stock with a target price of INR1458
(1.55x FY15E BV) with an upside potential of ~23% from the current level with
an investment horizon of 12-15 months.

Cairn India – Q1FY14 Result Update :: LKP

Cairn India – Q1FY14 Result Update
Cairn’s Q1FY14 adjusted net profit of Rs24.5bn was lower than our estimate of Rs28.2bn on account of lower other income and higher exploration costs. Revenue for the quarter declined by 8.5% on annual basis to Rs40.6bn (qoq +6.9%) as profit petroleum pay out increased from 20% to 30% resulting additional outflow of Rs3.26bn. Average gross production for the quarter was at 212kboepd (yoy +2.6%, qoq +5.2%) while average oil price realization stood at $94.6/bbl (yoy -6.3%, qoq +6%). Production from Rajasthan fields increased by 3.8% yoy to 173.5kbpd (qoq +2.9%). Cairn is currently producing 180kbpd from its Rajasthan fields. The management guided Rajasthan exit production rate at 200-215kbpd for FY14, driven by production from Barmer Hill, NI and NE fields. We maintain our BUY rating on Cairn with a revised SOTP based target price of Rs366. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 6.2x and 3.9x FY15e EPS and EBITDA respectively.

ASIAN PAINTS Volumes surprise; new capacity causes blips:: Edelweiss

Asian Paints’ Q1FY14 sales growth (at 11.6% YoY) came in line with
estimates though PAT was lower than estimates. Key positives were (i)
double digit volume growth in domestic decorative business (likely
gained share) despite heavy rainfall in June (which had impact on
demand in southern and western regions of India); and (ii) expansion in
gross margins in both, consolidated (148bps) and standalone (76bps)
businesses. Key negatives were (i) compression in EBITDA margin by
119bps YoY due to higher employee costs (increase in provisions for
gratuity and leave encashment), other expenses (commissioning of new
plant, diesel costs, ad spends). The company has already announced a 1%
price hike from August 1, 2013. Exchange rate movement and diesel price
hikes are key monitorables. Maintain ‘BUY’ on dips.

SME Stocks look before you leap ::Business Line