FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 10-Jun-2013

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 10-Jun-2013
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	40666	1206.07	40581	1208.39	228903	6770.25	-2.32
INDEX OPTIONS	557525	16491.62	518173	15343.71	1763334	51905.19	1147.91
STOCK FUTURES	56104	1579.98	54007	1505.11	1027699	28543.01	74.87
STOCK OPTIONS	37319	1017.35	36639	996.11	65618	1679.74	21.24
						Total	1241.70

 

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FII & DII trading activity on NSE, BSE and MCX-SX 10-06-2013

Category		Buy	Sell	Net
		Value	Value	Value
FII		2229.24	2343.24	-114
DII		764.93	834.68	-69.75

 

 

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India IT Services Honey, it’s all about the immigration bill these days ::JPMorgan

 The four largest offshore IT Services players (TCS, Cognizant, Infosys and
Wipro) presented at the JPM TMT conference in Boston last week (May 14-
16). Investor focus in the US overwhelmingly stayed put on the immigration
bill and its consequences for the Indian IT industry.
 We continue to think that the net impact of the immigration bill (more
specifically, the proposed provisions/clauses relating to visas and visa
holders) is a net negative for the offshore IT Services industry. It seems
that at the minimum, the net impact would be higher costs (increased visa
costs and realignment of non-immigrant visa wages), which is something it
seems that the various players are reconciled with and agreeable to.

Operational resilience seen; high debt a key concern Hindalco ::Centrum

Operational resilience seen; high debt a key concern
Hindalco’s standalone performance was above expectations with PAT at RSs4.8bn (up 11% QoQ and higher than our estimates by 12%). EBITDA stood at ~Rs6.4bn (margin of ~9.2%, up 70bps QoQ). Better value added product sales coupled with operational efficiencies led to 10.5% QoQ improvement in EBITDA despite flat LME realizations. Commissioning of Mahan and Utkal projects have started which is expected to drive volume growth and FRP commissioning at Hirakud is expected to result in higher VAP share in aluminium business. We remain positive on the recovery in LME prices going ahead and revise our estimates marginally to account for higher debt on books. Maintain buy.

Volumes improve marginally QoQ but VAP share increases: Aluminium production stood at 142kt, up 2% QoQ and copper production at ~85kt was up 1% QoQ. VAP share in production went up smartly from 43% in FY12 to 47% in FY13 and VAP volumes stood at 255kt in FY13 (up 4.5%). Alumina sales were up 4% YoY to 281kt in FY13.

EBIT improves for both aluminium and copper divisions: EBIT for aluminium division went up by 37% QoQ to Rs2.8bn despite flat realizations on account of higher VAP share and operational efficiencies. EBIT for copper division also increased by ~15% QoQ to ~Rs2.6bn (EBIT margin of 5.6%, up 80bps QoQ).

EBITDA margin improves sequentially: Operational efficiencies and increase in value added product share led to improvement of standalone margin to 9.2% (up 70bps QoQ). Margin for FY13 stood at 8.5% in a tough operational year marked by lower realizations and higher raw material and coal costs.

Volumes recover smartly, maintain buy NMDC ::Centrum

Volumes recover smartly, maintain buy
NMDC’s operational performance (adjusted for ~Rs4bn provisioning) was marginally below our expectations with adj. EBITDA at Rs21.5bn (margin of 67.3%) as sales volume stood at 8.2 MT (in line) but with higher export share of ~11%. NMDC made ~Rs4bn provision for e-auction sales in Karnataka done during last 18 months and fines imposed by CEC and the Supreme Court. The company announced final dividend of Rs4/share (total Rs7/share for FY13, div. yield of ~6%) and kept pricing unchanged for June. We see volume growth coming back in FY14E and expect sales volumes of 29MT/31MT in FY14E/15E. We reduce our EBITDA estimates for FY14E/15E to account for higher expenses in Karnataka and lower realizations. Maintain Buy with a reduced target price of Rs170.

Volumes recover; realizations stay flat QoQ as export volumes share increases: Sales volumes stood at ~8.2MT, up by ~29% YoY and ~55% QoQ as production and evacuation constraints eased post monsoons, in Q2& Q3FY13. Export volumes stood at ~).9MT (~11% share). Realizations stayed flat QoQ at ~Rs3886/tonne, supported by exports.

Provisioning done for sales in Karnataka through auctions: NMDC took a provision of ~Rs3.4bn in Q4 towards 10% contribution of revenue generated from e-auction (since Q3FY12) with regards to CEC recommendation and ratification of the same by the Supreme Court recently. Penalty of ~Rs0.7bn was also expensed. We expect Rs2.5bn expense for 10% revenue share on 8MT volume sales in Karnataka in FY14E

Adj. EBITDA margin lower than expected on higher exports: Adjusted for provisions, EBITDA margin stood flat QoQ at 67.3% and EBITDA stood at ~Rs21.4bn (EBITDA/tonne of ~Rs2613, flat QoQ). Margin was lower than our expectation of 72.1% on account of larger share of exports in the sales mix which led to increase in freight and export duty costs.

Cadila Healthcare: Buy :: Business Line

Bad performance continues, maintain sell SAIL ::Centrum

Bad performance continues, maintain sell
SAIL’s operational performance continued to disappoint as realizations were muted (down ~9% YoY but flat QoQ) and sales volumes were flat at 3.2MT in a competitive domestic market with low demand and high competition. EBITDA stood at ~Rs9.2bn and margin remained dismal at 7.6% (multi year low) on account of higher conversion and fixed costs and high cost inventory sales. Adj. PAT stood at Rs4.4bn (down ~60% YoY). Progress of expansion projects remains slow and incremental production guidance is of 1MT in FY14E. We continue to believe that SAIL’s competitive strength remains low among large domestic steel producers and see profitability remaining under pressure going ahead as inventory (~1.2MT) is slowly depleted going ahead. We have revised our volume estimates lower for FY14E/15E to 12.2MT/14.2MT. We reduce our target price to Rs49 and maintain sell.

Realisations stay muted and volumes flat: SAIL’s blended realizations were muted at Rs38008/tonne (lower by 9% YoY) on account of subdued domestic demand and stiff competition from peers. Steel sales volume stood at a muted 3.2MT (in line with estimates but flat YoY). SAIL added ~0.3 MT of finished steel inventory in FY13 and as a result finished steel inventory reached ~1.2 MT by the end of FY13 in addition to semi product inventory.

EBITDA remains dismal: EBITDA stood at Rs9.2bn, down by ~51% YoY on account of lower realizations and high expenses as inventory clearance increased overall expenses. EBITDA margin of 7.6% was down by 640bps YoY and SAIL continued to remain the highest cost converter among large domestic steel players on account of high operational costs. Inventory sales going forward could keep margin subdued in the coming few quarters also.

BHEL: Hold :: Business Line

Technicals- HDIL, CORE Education, Godrej Ind, Zee Entertainment, Indraprastha Gas, SIB, :: Business Line

What’s a ‘Hindu’ rate of growth :: Business Line

The recently released GDP growth of 4.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2013 has all but shut the door to double-digit growth dreams. It has also opened the window to the deprecating term – Hindu rate of growth.

Professor Rajkrishna, an Indian economist, coined the term ‘Hindu rate of growth’ in 1978 to characterise the slow growth and to explain it against the backdrop of socialistic economic policies.  

POLICY OF CONTENTMENT

Besides numeric metrics of growth, the attitude of policy makers and citizens towards economic growth may also have been factored in the Hindu rate of growth. It was generally considered that India was ‘content’ with the low growth rate, post independence. While the other countries clamoured for more growth, Indian fatalism was cited as a possible reason why policy makers were not seeking ways to boost the economy.

However, GDP data estimates by Paul Bairoch, a Belgian economic historian, published in 1982 questions this contentment. This data, later confirmed by British economist Angus Maddisson, showed that India held close to a quarter of the world’s share of GDP in 1750. After colonisation started, India’s share dropped to 20 per cent by 1800 and fell precipitously to three per cent in 1880.  

Small rate of growth alone does not characterise Hindu rate of growth. Prolonged low growth rate, albeit not an economic contraction, is not sufficient to be deemed as the Hindu rate of growth.

For example, the global GDP growth has only averaged three per cent since 1970s and the growth rates of the UK and the US have been under three per cent since 1980s. These growths were not termed as Hindu rate of growth.

In addition to growth being low and extending over a long period of time, the term also captures a low per-capita GDP, by factoring in the population growth.

India’s annual population growth rate was over two per cent in the 1980s and the per-capita GDP growth rate, with 3.5 per cent GDP growth, was a meagre one per cent. Annual population growth has been on a decline and is around 1.4 per cent currently, helping higher per capita income growth.

 So while the phrase Hindu rate of growth may have characterised a phase, it cannot be considered a generic jargon for India’s growth rate. In an open global economy, we cannot get back to this phase, even if we try. The phrase may have been obsolete in a few years of being coined, as we entered the neo-Hindu cycle of growth – being in tune with the global economy.