09 June 2013

Top 20 must have stocks for your portfolio: Brokerage views By ECONOMIC TIMES

The benchmark indices failed to break out of the narrow range in this week, weighed down by weakness in the Indian rupee and US Federal Reserve's plans on quantitative easing.

Signs of strength in the US economy fuelled fears that the Federal Reserve might soon begin tapering its massive stimulus program, which might not be positive for the equity markets.

Most analysts are of the view hat that the end of quantitative easing by the central banks might result in a 'risk-off' sentiment which means trouble for the equity markets.

The Indian markets wrapped up the week ended June 07, 2013 in the red zone, reversing the gaining trend of the previous week. The Sensex ended 1.67 per cent lower, while the Nifty fell 1.75 per cent in the week.

While the GDP data for the quarter ended March 2013 came at sub 5 per cent levels along with easing inflation rates, all eyes are on the Reserve Bank of India which will hold its next policy meet later in the month to ease policy rates.

However, with the rupee depreciating below 57, most analysts think it might just be a tall task for the Reserve Bank of India to ease policy rates in this month.

"The picture is getting more and more difficult for the RBI because of the inflation having dropped significantly which will not help in managing the fiscal deficit," Indranil Pan of Kotak Mahindra Bank said in an interview with ET Now.

In line at operational level; tax write back boosts PAT Godawari Power & Ispat:: Centrum

In line at operational level; tax write back boosts PAT
Godawari Power & Ispat’s (GPIL) operational performance was
largely on expected lines with EBITDA at Rs768mn and margin of
12.3% (above our estimate of Rs758mn). Iron ore production
improved by 12.5% QoQ and stood at ~6.9lakh tonne for FY13.
Sponge iron sales at ~49kt (up ~25% YoY) surprised positively.
Realizations remained lower by 2-6% QoQ across steel products due
to low end user demand and that could have prompted GPIL to sell
more of sponge iron and power. PAT was higher on account of tax
write back on power operations earnings for the last few years
(which were exempted under AITA). We expect growth in pellet
volumes through 1.2mtpa expansion (which is ahead of schedule) to
provide support to operating profits and margins. We revise our
realization estimates lower and reduce our earnings estimates for
FY14E/15E by 10.2%/8%. Maintain Buy.
 Volumes increase in sponge and power, as steel realizations weaken further: Iron
ore production went up by ~12% QoQ to reach 1.6 lakh tonne and sponge iron sales
jumped by ~25% YoY to 48.9kt. Billet sales were lower by ~5.5% QoQ and HB wire
sales also dropped by ~12% QoQ as steel product realizations continued to fall amidst
weak demand and were lower QoQ by 2-6% across product categories. Power sales
continued to be strong at 20.1mn units (up ~49% YoY).
 EBITDA largely in line: EBITDA at Rs768mn was higher QoQ by 9.8% and marginally
higher than our estimate of Rs758mn. Due to pressure on realizations across products
and higher share of low margin sponge iron sales, EBITDA margin stood at 12.3%
(lower by 250bps YoY and up 70bps QoQ).

Surge in volume growth Colgate :Centrum

Surge in volume growth
Colgate posted Q4FY13 revenues above expectations with 18.3%YoY (2.4% above expectations) growth on the back of 11%YoY volume growth in the toothpaste category and 12% (8% in Q3FY13) overall, coupled with market share gain across categories. Operating profit was down by 2.7% YoY (15.2% below expectations) on the back of higher admin and A&P spends. Adj PAT was down by 5.8% YoY to Rs1232mn. We maintain Neutral rating on the back of steep valuations and increasing competitive intensity which will mute margin expansion.

Robust revenues but margins under pressure: Colgate posted 18.3% revenue growth to Rs8116mn on the back of 12%YoY overall volume growth and 11% (v/s 10% expectation) in the toothpaste category. Operating profit was at Rs1487mn down by 2.7%YoY as operating margin contracted by 397bps. PAT was at Rs1232mn (down 5.8% YoY) 15.7% below expectations.

Volume growth returns: Volume growth in the toothpaste category was 11%YoY against 8% in the last quarter as market share increased by 130bps to 55.4% from 54.1% last year. Toothbrush market share also improved from 37.7% to 41.5% during the quarter, while mouthwash market share was at 26.5%, up 30bps YoY.

Increasing focus on premiumisation: 2.5-3% of the growth was on account of premiumisation and change in product mix during the quarter. The company is slowly upgrading its premium product offerings to customers as Sensitive toothpaste market will now have a 5% market share. Products such as Colgate Visible White, Colgate Total Pro Gum Health, Colgate Sensitive Pro-Relief Multi-Protection, Colgate Max Fresh Ice and Colgate Total Advance were some of the launches during the year. The company has also been aggressive in the toothbrush space with multiple new launches.

Investment cycle to pick up pace in FY14: Christopher Wood, CLSA in ET

India's investment cycle could pick up steam before the end of the current fiscal just ahead of parliamentary polls, with the government showing resolve in passing key reforms in the energy and power sectors, and the Cabinet Committee on Investment playing a decisive role in clearing projects.

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