26 January 2013

We recommend to BUY Karur Vyasa Bank (KVB)::Motilal oswal,


We recommend to BUY Karur Vyasa Bank (KVB) with a 12month
price target of `725 , valuing it at 2.25x P/ABV multiple on FY14
estimated book.
INVESTMENT ARGUMENTS:
Reasonable Presence:
Karur Vyasa Bank (KVB) is a 96 years old private bank headquartered
at Karur, Tamil Nadu with a network of 514 branches and 1400 ATMs
with business size of `58,000crs. Tamil Nadu/AP/Maharashtra has
45%/17%/13% of its branch network. KVB's 58% of the branches
are located in rural and semi-urban areas. Corporate advances/
Commercial/Agriculture contribute 42%/ 34%/15% of total loan
book.
Robust business growth:
KVB's loan book grew at 35% during FY12. KVB's deposit and loan
book grew at CAGR of 28% during the last 5 years ending FY12 v/s
18% and 19% respectively for the industry. We expect the bank to
deliver NII & PAT CAGR of 22% and 19% respectively during FY12-
14. Business growth is likely to remain strong for KVB as
management has guided for increasing branches to 700 from 514
by FY16. Asset quality is very good with restructured loans and net
NPA as % to loan book standing at 2.7% and 0.33% respectively.
Future Plans to aid profitable growth:
KVB has drawn up a road map to increase its business 2x from
`58000Cr currently to `125000Cr in FY16 by focussing on (a)
Significant Improvement in CASA ratio (b) Thrust on management
of stressed portfolio along with recovery of NPAs (c) Improvement
in fee based income by launching new products (d) Increase pan
India branch presence.
Valuation and View
KVB trades at 2x/1.7x FY13E/14E P/ABV, which is at discount of ~
10% to other listed in Private Banks (ex-Hdfc Bank). KVB has
consistently maintained payout of ~30% , which results in dividend
yield of ~3%, which is the highest amongst all private sector banks.
We believe, discount to Private Banks will vanish owing to a very
consistent performance, high dividend yield and better than
industry growth rates. New capital raising seems to be away by
more than 18 months. We recommend BUY with 12 month target
price of `725 (P/ABV 2.25x FY14E, P/E 11x FY14E).

We recommend to BUY Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri -- Motilal oswal,


We recommend to BUY Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri Limited
(TBZ) with a price target of `330.
INVESTMENT ARGUMENTS:
India - the largest jewellery market, highly unorganized, huge
potential to organize: India is the largest consumer of gold in the
world. According to a CARE Report, the Indian domestic gems and
jewellery industry has the potential to grow from an ~ `2,20,000Cr
(Gold Jewellery share ~80%) in FY12 to ~`3,00,000 Cr by FY14,which
implies a CAGR of 14% with the organized sector expected to grow
by ~30% during the same period. Currently market is fragmented across
the value chain. There are ~ 450,000 unorganised players across the
gems and jewellery sector. The Organized National Jewellers and Large
Regional Jewellers account for ~ 6% and ~10% of this market
respectively. Changing demographics, fast urbanization, more women
in work force and reliable quality of gold will lead to sustained increase
in the share of organized market. We believe, companies such as TBZ
will be a natural beneficiary of this change. (Data Source: CRISIL
and CARE)
Strong brand, huge expansion to drive profit growth: TBZ is a
148 year old brand in premium and wedding jewellery. Promoters are
in the business of jewellery for the last 4 generations. Jewellery is a
business of customer's trust and therefore vintage with a credible track
record gives jewellers immense competitive edge and moat. The
company makes money primarily by making charges and mark up it
levies on the gold and diamond. TBZ raised `200 crore from the IPO
in year 2012 and plans to use funds for expanding its retail presence to
57 stores spread across 43 cities by FY2015 from 19 stores currently.
High brand recall for wedding and fashion jewellery along with
aggressive expansion will drive net profit growth during the years
to come.
Valuations & View: TBZ has delivered 65% CAGR in net profit
during FY08-FY12. We expect profit CAGR of 40-45% over FY12-
FY16E on the back of huge expansion in retail presence. Stock currently
trades at PE and EV/EBIDTA of 13.5x and 9x FY14E, which looks
reasonable considering the growth potential. Listed peer like Titan
trades at ~27xFY14E. We believe, high double digit growth, high
RoE(25%+) and good and visible brand will lead to rerating of the
stock valuation over time. Recommend BUY with a target of `330
(19xFY14E EPS and 12xFY14E EV/EBIDTA)

Syndicate Bank, Lower Provisions and Tax reversal props -Karvy


Lower Provisions and Tax reversal props
Profits
In Q3FY13, Syndicate Bank’s performance came better than our
expectations with PAT growing at 50.4% YoY (up 9.7% QoQ) to Rs5.1 bn,
owing to higher than expected tax write back and lesser than expected
credit costs. NII grew 6% YoY (up 1% QoQ) and NIM declined 4 bps QoQ
at 3.29% due to decline in yield on advances. Asset quality improved
during the quarter owing to lesser slippages. However, balance sheet
growth continues to remain moderate.
 Moderate loan Growth: Advances grew at 17.3% YoY (up 6.2% QoQ)
and Deposits grew 14.6% YoY (up 5.3% QoQ). Consequently, C‐D ratio
increased 70 bps to 82.1%. The management has guided 15‐16% credit
growth for FY13.
 Asset Quality promising: Syndicate Bank’s asset quality showed further
improvement during the quarter, as net incremental slippages declined
by Rs 186 mn and fresh slippage ratio declined to 2.7% from 3.3% in
H1FY13. Gross NPA ratio declined by 16 bps to 2.31% and net NPA ratio
reduced by 7 bps to 0.85%. The provision coverage ratio is maintained at
83%. The bank restructured loans worth Rs1 bn and the cumulative
restructured loan book stood at Rs 100 bn (7.4% of loan book).
 Contraction in NIMs: NIMs declined 4bps sequentially to 3.29% as yield
on advances declined 31 bps sequentially to 9.17%. This was partially
offset by decline in cost of deposits by 30 bps to 6.7%. We expect NIM to
remain around 3.25% in FY13.
Outlook & Valuation
At the CMP the stock is trading at 4.0x and 3.8x FY13E and FY14E EPS, and
at 0.8x and 0.7x FY14E and FY15E P/ABV respectively. We have maintained
our estimates and our price target at Rs175 valuing the stock at 0.9x FY15 and
maintain BUY rating on the stock.

Sintex Industries Ltd:: IFCI research


Clouds beginning to clear!
We believe Sintex Industries Ltd (SIL) is all set for re-rating from current levels as the short term issue of repayment of Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds (FCCB) has been resolved. From the long term perspective, we believe there is a concerted effort on the part of the management to focus on balance sheet strength and quality of earnings. We therefore initiate coverage on SIL with a BUY rating and TP of Rs91 per share.  Short term concern of FCCB repayment issue resolved: SIL is required to repay US$292mn by Mar’13. It has unutilised deposits of US $110mn and has raised funds through three modes for repayment of FCCB - Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP – Rs1.72bn/ US $31.7mn), Preferential Warrants to promoters (Rs2.1bn/US $38.5mn) and New Step down FCCB (Rs7.6bn/US $ 140mn – interest for first two years fixed at 7.5% and reduced to 3.75% for the next three years i.e. YTM of 5.37%). Due to this, the equity will be diluted by 13% in FY13, 4% in FY14 and 21% in FY16 and FY17.  Focus on quality of earnings and stable growth: During period FY07-10, SIL aggressively targeted top line growth, which affected balance sheet health and impacted cash flow once the environment turned cloudy. Realising this, SIL has shifted its focus towards quality earnings and stable growth.  Custom moulding to support growth for next two years: SIL is a domestic leader in the custom moulding / composites business. The company has a portfolio with diversified applications and has all the major global technologies available for manufacturing of composites. The management plans to leverage on acquisitions and focus on expansion of client base in India with cross selling of products and technologies in the automotive sector. We estimate custom moulding business to grow 15% YoY in FY13 and in FY14.  Focus on high growth and high return prefab business: Prefabricated structures are building structures fabricated in the factory and delivered as turnkey projects. Over the past five years, government spending on medical and public health, housing urban development and education has increased at 20% CAGR. Government focus on these social initiatives is expected to continue in the near term (FY13 and FY14) as well. We expect the prefab business to grow at 20% YoY in FY13 and FY14 respectively.  Monolithic Business: Cash flow improvement and stable order inflow: SIL introduced plastic composite based monolithic construction in India and does activity for slum rehabilitation, state housing boards etc. In the last few years due to the unearthing of multiple scams, and the resulting cautious approach of the government (from investment perspective). SIL witnessed slowdown in cash receivables and order inflows. It has therefore exercised deliberate restraint in the monolithic business to improve the working capital cycle.  Valuation: At CMP of Rs70 the stock is trading at 4.6x FY13E earnings and 5.0xP/E, 0.6x P/BV and 5.4 x EV/EBDITA of FY14E. We initiate coverage on the stock with a “BUY” rating and value the stock at 6.5x EV/EBDITA multiple of FY14 with a target price of Rs.91 per share.

Zee Entertainment:: Strong growth Zee Entertainment Enterprises reported strong topline in Q3FY13 results on the back of 24.4% YoY ad revenue growth and 25.6% YoY subscription revenue growth (33% domestic and 9.4% international). Operating margins jumped sequentially on the back of lower programming cost with sports losses under check. We have increased our earnings estimates and upgraded the stock to BUY. --- centrum,


Strong growth
Zee Entertainment Enterprises reported strong topline in Q3FY13
results on the back of 24.4% YoY ad revenue growth and 25.6% YoY
subscription revenue growth (33% domestic and 9.4% international).
Operating margins jumped sequentially on the back of lower
programming cost with sports losses under check. We have increased
our earnings estimates and upgraded the stock to BUY.
Strong results: ZEEL posted 24.4% YoY increase in net sales to Rs9389mn
backed by strong advertising revenue growth of 28.8% to Rs5094mn.
Subscription revenues were up 26%YoY to Rs4098mn led by domestic
revenues which were up by 33% YoY. Operating profit was up by 21% to
Rs2612mn on the back of lower sports loss. PAT was 2.5% above our
expectations at Rs1941mn, up 42.8% YoY.

Sun TV,-Ad revenue growth bounces back:: centrum,



Sun TV Network posted healthy 14.3%YoY growth in revenues on the
back of 20% YoY ad revenue growth along with 28% YoY growth in
analog subscription revenues. Digitisation in Chennai and
implementation of Phase-II will help the company grow its DTH and
analog subscription revenues. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.
Q3FY13 above expectations: Revenues grew by 14.3% YoY to Rs4859mn
on the back of 20%YoY growth in advertising revenues and 27%YoY
growth in analog subscription revenues. Operating profit was up 10% YoY
to Rs3763mn as margins contracted by 279bps. Profitability was up by
13.1%YoY to Rs1899mn, 8.7% above expectations.
Healthy advertising growth: Advertisement revenues grew by 20%YoY
during the quarter on the back of strong festive season demand with
growth across sectors. We have modeled 8.8% growth for FY13 and 15%
for FY14E.
Subscription revenues to grow: On a sequential basis analog subscription
revenues grew by 8.8% and 28% YoY. On the back of strong DTH offtake, DTH
subscriber numbers have increased by 5% QoQ to 8.3mn and hence the
company posted 5% sequential growth in revenues. International
subscription revenues were flat on a sequential basis.

BSE, Bulk deals, 25/01/2013

Deal DateScrip CodeScrip NameClient NameDeal Type *QuantityPrice **
25/01/201353302220 MicronsVIJETA BROKING INDIA PRIVATE LIMITEDS77,392145.2
25/01/201353302220 MicronsVIJETA BROKING INDIA PRIVATE LIMITEDB77,392145.46
25/01/201353302220 MicronsDOBARIYA ASHVINBHAI THOBHANBHAIS254,165145.29
25/01/201353302220 MicronsDOBARIYA ASHVINBHAI THOBHANBHAIB254,165145.36
25/01/201353302220 MicronsCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDS72,301142.66
25/01/201353302220 MicronsCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDB72,301141.63
25/01/201353302220 MicronsARSENAL FINSTOCK SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDB145,000147.52
25/01/201353302220 MicronsJINESH HARESH SHAHS100,000138
25/01/201353302220 MicronsJAYNEEL SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITEDS79,027144.54
25/01/201353302220 MicronsJAYNEEL SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITEDB80,368142.87
25/01/201353302220 MicronsCHIRAG PADSHAH HUFS174,992145.41
25/01/201353302220 MicronsCHIRAG PADSHAH HUFB181,792144.09
25/01/2013530621Akar ToolsPANKAJ BABULAL SHAHS29,50025.92
25/01/2013531519Ankush FinstockASHRAF H. HALAIB110,00011
25/01/2013531519Ankush FinstockANKIT PANKAJBHAI SHAHB52,11211.49
25/01/2013531519Ankush FinstockALPESH V SOJITRAS30,72911.41
25/01/2013506074Arshiya IntlGAJANAN ENTERPRISESS984,83638.28
25/01/2013506074Arshiya IntlGAJANAN ENTERPRISESB999,83038.17
25/01/2013506074Arshiya IntlCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDS450,24039.64
25/01/2013506074Arshiya IntlCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDB450,24039.94
25/01/2013590114Arunjyoti EnterprisesVIMAL RAJ MATHURB35,50014.06
25/01/2013531568Ashutosh PaperELESH HASMUKHLAL SANGHAVIB34,50051.85
25/01/2013531568Ashutosh PaperMALAY CORPORATE SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDB63,65054.99
25/01/2013531568Ashutosh PaperPATEL NITABEN SHAILESHBHAIB37,00053.73
25/01/2013531591Bampsl SecPOKHRIYAL INFIN PRIVATE LTD.S2,394,773.63
25/01/2013531591Bampsl SecACHINTYA SECURITIES PVT. LTD.B2,494,934.63
25/01/2013531458BOSTON BIOVIPUL JIVANLAL PATELB50,0004.34
25/01/2013531458BOSTON BIONISHABEN ASHOKBHAI AGARWALB50,0004.34
25/01/2013531327Charms IndsSAMIR SURESHBHAI DESAIS30,0005.28
25/01/2013511668Fact EnterpriseOFFERLINK INFRAPROJECTS PRIVATELIMITEDB92,0743.13
25/01/2013521167Frontline BsnsPOOJA JINESH BHATTS54,781221
25/01/2013521167Frontline BsnsPOOJA JINESH BHATTB54,681220.03
25/01/2013524754Gujarat MediPRAMOD MAHESHWARIS54,54617.3
25/01/2013524754Gujarat MediOM PRAKASH MAHESHWARIS32,58417.27
25/01/2013524754Gujarat MediMAHESHWARI BROTHERSS35,00017.25
25/01/2013532873HDILCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDS2,968,57478.35
25/01/2013532873HDILCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDB2,970,95778.17
25/01/2013530273Liberty PhosRAJASTHAN GLOBAL SECURITIES LIMITEDB156,172216.81
25/01/2013530273Liberty PhosBLUE DEEBAJ CHEMICALS LLCS590,000214.27
25/01/2013530273Liberty PhosRAJASTHAN GLOBAL SECURITIES LTDB150,315212.15
25/01/2013530273Liberty PhosCREDIT SUISSE (SINGAPORE) LIMITED A/C CREDIT SUISSE (SINGAPOB300,000221.97
25/01/2013530273Liberty PhosMORGAN STANLEY ASIA SINGAPORE PTEB217,350217.55
25/01/2013530273Liberty PhosDEUTSCHE SECURITIES MAURITIUS LIMITEDB145,000220.04
25/01/2013500284Lords ChloroSRISHTI DHIRB2,500,00013.5
25/01/2013500284Lords ChloroALOK DHIRS2,500,00013.5
25/01/2013511688Mathew EasowURMILA GARGB50,00033.5
25/01/2013511688Mathew EasowALIPORE COMMERCIAL PRIVATE LIMITEDS39,80333.5
25/01/2013590074Ortin Lab-$RAJKUMARI HANUMANPRASAD SABOOS40,81534.23
25/01/2013590074Ortin Lab-$RAJKUMARI HANUMANPRASAD SABOOB38,69833.78
25/01/2013511734Pasupati FinPAWAN KUMAR AGGARWALS55,01311.69
25/01/2013511734Pasupati FinORION STOCKS LTDS31,10611.58
25/01/2013511734Pasupati FinORION STOCKS LTDB62,70211.64
25/01/2013513403PM TelelinnksPATEL NITABEN SHAILESHBHAIS51,93421.7
25/01/2013531228Rander CorpBAHUBALI PROPERTIES LIMITEDS75,00089.55
25/01/2013504378Ravinay TradGRACEUNITED REAL ESTATE PVT LTDS47,200267.04
25/01/2013531886SCOPE INDSRIHARICHARAN DAMARAJUB77,60018.81
25/01/2013523359Sharp IndsYADUKA FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITEDS187,40610.43
25/01/2013513515SR IndsNILESH KARWAS150,2985.15
25/01/2013513515SR IndsAVN CORPORATE RESEARCH PRIVATE LIMITEDB196,6885.16
25/01/2013510245Swasti Vinay SynSABIHA SHAIKHS410,2712.12
25/01/2013590111VAISHNAVIGANGADHARA RAO ILAPARTIS150,0007.08
25/01/2013590111VAISHNAVIGANGADHARA RAO ILAPARTIB100,0007.05
25/01/2013590111VAISHNAVIAGADHANDI SAI KRISHNAS315,4217.05
25/01/2013590111VAISHNAVISAI NITHISHA PARVATHANENIB281,0357.11
25/01/2013526441Vision CinemasSRINIVAS KARROTHIS245,52110.87
25/01/2013526441Vision CinemasSRINIVAS KARROTHIB249,66210.64
25/01/2013526441Vision CinemasSRINIVAS KARROTHIS322,08110.67
25/01/2013526441Vision CinemasSANJAY BABULAL PANDYAS150,00010.5
25/01/2013533427VMS IndsTRIPURARI PROPERTIES PRIVATE LIMITEDB120,00035.7
25/01/2013503675WAGENDAASHISH DEVELOPERS759,00020.22

* B - Buy, S - Sell 
** = Weighted Average Trade Price / Trade Price 

HUDCO tax free bond --1.83x oversibscrobe as on 25 Jan 2013 at 1700 hrs

HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION LIMITED
Sr. NoCategoryNo.of Bonds/NCDs offered/ reservedNo. of Bonds bid forNo of times subscribed
1Category I18,75,00045,02,0502.4
1(a)Public Financial Institutions200
1(b)Scheduled Commercial Banks41,01,850
1(c)Provident Funds with minimum corpus of Rs.25 crores0
1(d)Pension Funds with minimum corpus of Rs.25 crores0
1(e)Insurance Companies registered with the IRDA4,00,000
1(f)National Investment Fund0
1(g)Mutual Funds registered with SEBI0
1(h)Alternative Investment Funds0
1(i)State Industrial Development Corporations0
1(j)Insurance Funds set up and managed by army/navy or air force of the Union of India0
1(k)Insurance Funds set up and managed by the Department of Posts0
1(l)Foreign Institutional Investor0
1(m)FII Sub Account Corporate/Individual0
1(n)Others0
2Category II11,25,0008,71,0450.77
2(a)Companies and Bodies Corporate authorised to invest in the Bonds8,71,045
3Category III15,00,00019,09,9631.27
3(a)Resident Indian individuals more than Rs.10 lacs16,70,663
3(b)Hindu Undivided Families more than Rs.10 lacs49,700
3(c)NRI (Repatriation Basis) more than Rs.10 lacs25,300
3(d)NRI (Non - Repatriation Basis) more than Rs.10 lacs1,64,300
4Category IV30,00,00064,63,8522.15
4(a)Resident Indian individuals upto Rs.10 lacs60,38,931
4(b)Hindu Undivided Families upto Rs.10 lacs2,97,222
4(c)NRI (Repatriation Basis) upto Rs.10 lacs77,212
4(d)NRI (Non - Repatriation Basis) upto Rs.10 lacs50,487
Total75,00,0001,37,46,9101.83
Updated as on 25 Jan 2013 at 1700 hrs