FII & DII trading activity on NSE and BSE 24-01-2013

Category		Buy	Sell	Net
		Value	Value	Value
FII		4522.58	3496.26	1026.32
DII		1198.24	1950.5	-752.26

 

 

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TRACKING TECHNICALS -MTT BUY CALL ON MAHINDRA AND MAHINDRA FINANCIAL SERVICES:: Anand Rathi

Talwalkars Better value fitness -Value Pick:: Anand Rathi

Talwalkars Better Value fitness

CMP 188                 Reco: Buy                Expected Value 242             Nifty Level 6058                     

- Pioneer in the Fitness Industry

One of the oldest and largest fitness brand in India.

 - Aims to become a holistic Fitness player

1.      Broadened its scope by introducing NuForm fitness studios, 2) ZUMBA® Fitness Program and 3) Reduce – weight loss diet program.

2.      Increasing focus on optimizing service offerings to leverage the existing infrastructure and enhance customer portfolio.

How to Have a Year that Matters - HBR Article

Excellent Read : http://blogs.hbr.org/haque/2013/01/how_to_have_a_year_that_matter.html

CanFin Homes - Initiating Coverage - Centrum

Initiating Coverage

CanFin Homes

Buy

Target Price: Rs240

CMP: Rs163         

Upside: 47%

Catch it young

Can Fin, a retail focussed HFC boasting robust RoA (10yr avg of 1.7%) and 0% NNPA, is ready to move to the next orbit. Renewed vigour to expand balancesheet and branches along with mammoth housing finance opportunity imply a compelling case for re-rating. At current valuations (0.8x FY14E ABV), Can Fin is the cheapest housing finance company and is trading at a steep discount to the next comparable peer (GIC Housing). We initiate coverage with Buy for an upside of 47% to fair value estimate of Rs240 (1.1x FY14E BV).

What a travel insurance policy covers ::Business Line

Today, travel insurance is becoming very important for business trips and holidays. However, the awareness of buying this product is low in India.

Travellers simply buy a plan that suits their travel purpose the best, and which is easy on their budget.

But with the multitude of plans on offer, it is wise to be aware of the benefits covered, as well as those that are not, before buying any travel policy.

Oil & Gas Upsides contingent on staying the course:: Prabhudas Lilladher

Government action to curtail rising under-recoveries and prevent ‘dieselization’ of
the economy, and its intent to cap subsidies by raising prices for the second time this
year, could act a significant game changer for the sector. We view the Government’s
decisions to (1) revise diesel prices by small amounts periodically and (2) fully
deregulate prices of bulk diesel as a big positive for all the oil PSU stocks. We believe,
while the stocks have reacted positive to the development, further rerating will be
contingent on implementation of the gradual continuous price increase of diesel.
‘Implicit assumption ‘of Rs0.45/litre hike in diesel prices for the non-bulk user
segment over period of 6-7 months could save Rs 200-240bn (22%-25% of pre
announcement diesel subsidy), including elimination of bulk user subsidy (~17% of
diesel consumption).
! Impact on FY14 under‐recovery estimates: Originally, we expected FY14 fuel
under-recoveries at Rs1.24tn assuming a Brent crude price of US$105/bbl,
INR/USD exchange rate of Rs53 and no further fuel price increases. Hence
assuming (a) Rise in LPG cap to 9, (b) Diesel sold to Bulk buyers at market rate
and (c) Diesel price for other consumers is increased by Rs0.45/litre every month
for next 6 months, FY14 fuel under-recoveries would be reduced by 21% to
Rs982bn.
! HPCL room for more upside, BPCL largely priced in: We believe the OMCs offer
further re-rating prospects if the gradual price hikes were to be continued for a
longer period. Amongst the OMCs; HPCL would be prime beneficiary of the
move given its significant leverage to the policy action. We Recommend
Accumulate on the stock with Target price of Rs404/share (12% upside). Though,
in terms of quality of earnings, we like BPCL as it offers E&P portfolio play.
However, upside from the current levels seems capped in case of BPCL.
! Upstream valuations pricing in ~US$60/bbl net realizations: Although, a decline
in the subsidy would also be significantly positive for upstream PSUs (such as
ONGC and Oil India), as it would increase their net realization, we would be
cautious on the subsidy sharing ratio and quantum of benefits flowing to
upstream companies. We see benefits to upstream PSUs resulting in net
realisation increasing to ~US$60/bbl. However, current upstream valuations
seem to be factoring in most of the positives, we downgrade OIL to Accumulate
with a Revised Target price of Rs609/share, while maintain accumulate on ONGC
with a Revised Target price of Rs361/share.

India Infrastructure Planning Commission sets stretch targets for 12th Plan period:: JPMorgan

 Planning Commission issued the draft 12th five year plan (FY13-17)
document, recently. The USD1trillion investment target in infrastructure
remains intact and implies an ambitious 18.7% CAGR in infra spending (or
2.36x previous plan capex). The power sector (incl. renewables) accounts
for 32% of plan investments, roads 17%, telecommunications 17%, railways
(incl. MRTS) 11%, irrigation/water supply & sanitation 13% and others 9%.
The draft plan proposes a V-shaped recovery in fixed investment rate after
sequential decline through five years of the 11th Plan period.
 A slow start to the plan, with high backended growth expectations:
Planning Commission’s base case incorporates 8.2% GDP growth over the
12th Plan period. The plan has opened to a slow start. J.P. Morgan
Economics team estimates India's GDP growth at 5.2% in FY13 and 5.8%
in FY14, well below Planning Commission estimates of 6.7% and 8.1%,
respectively. The base-case scenario incorporated in the draft plan is titled
'Strong Inclusive Growth'- it is a projection of what is possible if early steps
and policy actions are taken to reverse the current slowdown and aid growth.
The 12th Plan growth rates can fall short in the event of ‘Insufficient Action’
(6-6.5% GDP growth) or worse ‘Policy Logjam’ (5-5.5%).
 11th Plan report card lends confidence: 93% of previous plan target infra
spend (USD470bn at current prices) is anticipated to have been achieved, as
per Planning Commission data. Infra investment CAGR in 11th Plan period
was a healthy 15.8% (or 2.1x previous plan capex). Telecom and roads
overshot 11th Plan target by 20% and 15% respectively, while railway,
irrigation and port capex fell short by 25%, 23% and 60% respectively.
 Private sector outperforms in the 11th Plan: In previous plan, private
sector capex exceeded target by 13%, while public spending fell short by
16%. Private sector exuberance was most notable in power (64% higher vs.
target) and telecom (35% higher). Private sector share of 12th Plan spending
is expected to be ~48%, up from 37% in 11th Plan and 22% in 10th Plan.
Notably the share of central govt. in 12th Plan infra capex is down to 29%
vs. 42% in 10th Plan; this points to reducing role of union budget in tracking
progress of plan spending.
 The funding challenge, healthy capital market sentiment is key: Funding
sources envisaged for USD1trillion, include an even mix of debt and nondebt.
Planning Commission pegs the gap in identified sources of debt at
USD93bn or 18% of total requirement. In our assessment progress on
Infrastructure Debt Funds (IDF), and long term ECBs are potential means to
shore up debt funds. Securing equity fund requirement by private sector
(pegged at USD153bn over 12th Plan) is a bigger concern as, (a) delays in
sorting out fuel, tariff, land, regulatory and environmental uncertainties
could depress internal accrual projections, (b) highly levered private
corporates are in need of a dose of equity infusion, healthy capital market
sentiment/ PE fund appetite shall prove key for them to push ahead with
growth plans.

India Macroscope-- The Capital Question Citi

India Macroscope
The Capital Question
 Rising Need of Capital Flows — India's capital requirements across the
government and private sector have risen, with overall Debt-GDP ratios at 136%.
While public debt/GDP has moderated from 88% to 70%, private sector leverage
has risen faster from 33% of GDP to 66% currently, with growing recourse to
external sources of funding. The current sweet spot in equity/debt flows is positive
and has helped boost markets but given record high current account deficits,
fundamentally India's dependence on capital flows has gone up.
 Domestic Capital Is as Critical and as Much of a Challenge – While foreign
capital flows get the headlines, domestic flows are just as important as (1) Savings
rates have fallen, (2) There is a continued shift to physical savings and (3) Most
recent deposit growth numbers are at near historic lows of 11% YoY. Recent steps
on the debt market are positive, but more needs to be done given its impact on the
domestic and external front. The need for and pressure on capital will only rise,
which highlights (a) the dilemma of the RBI of responding to industry demands of
lowering rates to boost growth and (b) the need for reining in the fiscal deficit and
consequently inflationary expectations. Under these circumstances, monetary
easing in 2013 will likely be limited to 75bps.
 Incremental Reform Momentum Positive – The winter session was relatively
better than expected with the passage of banking/companies bill and the cabinet
approving the committee on investment. A key test is how it would manage the
current roads controversy. While the passenger rail-fare hike and the possibility of
further reform on fuel pricing is positive, key to note that crucial bills on GST, land
bill and FDI in insurance/pensions are still pending.
 Maintain Estimates on the Macro — (1) Maintain our 5.4% and 6.2% GDP
estimates for FY13 and FY14, (2) Deficits, both current account and fiscal, to
remain elevated in FY14, keeping the INR in a Rs54-56 range, (3) WPI Inflation to
average 6.5%-7%. Decontrol of diesel would increase WPI by 1%.

SGX Nifty: 6,067.00 -8.00; Markets to open DOWN

SGX  Nifty:  6,067.00 -8.00;  Singapore exchange
8:15 AM India time
Jan 24, 2012
Markets to open DOWN

HDFC MIP – Long Term Plan: Invest :: Business Line

Pursue all goals with different investment horizons :: Business Line

You may have to pursue multiple investment objectives during your working life. But are you forced to decide on whether to cut your current lifestyle and save more or maintain your current lifestyle and give up on one or more of your investment objectives? In this article, we discuss why you can pursue all or most of your objectives despite the capital constraint, as long as these objectives have different investment horizons.

CAPITAL CONSTRAINT

It is not atypical for you to have multiple objectives. You may want to send your children to graduate school 10 years hence, buy a house 5 years hence and retire in 25 years. The problem arises when your initial savings and capital contributions during the investment horizon are not enough to pursue all the objectives.

Suppose you need Rs 1 crore to send your children to graduate school. You may have to invest Rs 45,000 every month for the next 10 years earning 9 per cent a year, assuming you have an initial savings of Rs 5 lakh to contribute to the education fund. And if your household monthly income is Rs 2.5 lakh and living expenses are Rs 1 lakh, you may have limited room to pursue other objectives as well.

You should, however, consider pursuing all or most of your objectives. How can you do that? First, prioritise your objectives. Your most important objective would be your education fund. Why? You can postpone your retirement date but not your children’s admission date to a graduate school. Second, allocate the required investment capital to achieve the education objective based on your risk appetite and investment horizon. Third, pursue other less-important objectives with reduced allocation instead of pursuing one or more objectives with full required allocation. Our suggestion is based on two factors — one logical and one behavioural.