Crystal Ball gazing 2013:: Motilal oswal,

Key Highlights
3 Inter-market and Macro Economic Indicators extend long term consolidation
3 Nifty trends up with positive funds flow. Trailing support - 5650
3 Cyclicals to outperform Defensives
1st January, 2013
Nifty : 5,905
􀂄 India is placed as a leader on the Global Equity rotation chart
􀂄 Funds flow has been driving the market up
􀂄 Multiple technical indicators like - Gann Angles, Point & Figure, etc are coinciding with support at 5650
􀂄 Crucial point of resistance derived by the Elliot Wave theory is placed at 5970 / 6400
􀂄 Economic Indicators indicate consolidation in long term trend
􀂄 Depreciation in rupee despite positive funds flow remains a concern
􀂄 Cyclicals like - Auto, Realty, Infra are expected to outperform defensives


Sector Outlook
Auto Positive
Infra Positive
Realty Positive
Mid-Cap Positive
Banks Positive
Media Positive
IT Negative
Energy Negative


Nifty Vs .... Correlation
Global Equity Positive
Global Commodity Positive
Nominal GDP Positive
Fiscal Deficit Negative
USDINR Negative
India Vix Negative


Large Cap CMP Target
Maruti 1490 1730
NMDC 165 217
DLF 230 286
Indusind Bank 417 500


Mid - Cap CMP Target
Karur Vysya 560 725
GMDC 216 284
Mcleod Russel 350 410
Canfin Homes 152 230

Equities, in retail investor’s blind spot!: Business Head Retail at Emkay Global Financial Services: Business Line

Once considered to be an important wealth enhancer for retail investors, equity as an asset class, has been continuing to fall out of favour during the past couple of years!

In fact, an argument in favour of equities has no feet to stand on, considering the fact that the past five years absolute returns have been negative…while investment options such as property and gold, historically considered safe investments, have given multi-fold returns during the same period.

As a result of all this, the retail investor has ended up questioning the basic logic of wealth creation through long-term investments in equities.

Buy Eros International; Target : | 267 ::ICICI Direct

High growth potential; de-risked model!!!
Eros International, a leading producer/distributor with the largest film
library is best positioned to capitalise on changing dynamics of the film
entertainment industry. While increasing penetration of multiplex screens
& higher average ticket prices will lead to robust growth in theatrical
revenue, advent of premium TV, pay per view, online media & rise in cost
of satellite rights on the back of imminent digitisation will help monetise
the long tail more effectively. Bundled deals with satellite channels and
guaranteed 39% cost recovery from its parent make the company’s
business model relatively de-risked. A consistent track record in
delivering three to four movies in the top 10 grosser at box office each
year & strong movie slate lends stability & visibility to future earnings.
Eros is expected to post revenue & PAT CAGR of 19.4% and 19.1%,
respectively, over FY12-15E. Eros is cheaply valued compared to other
media businesses. Given the structural shift in film entertainment space, a
re-rating is on the cards. We initiate coverage with BUY and TP of | 267.

Petronet LNG, Flat earnings profile but strong long-term fundamentals:: Daiwa

Flat earnings profile but strong
long-term fundamentals
• Slow processing volume ramp-up at the Kochi terminal, but
capacity utilisation likely to remain high at the Dahej terminal
• We project a flat earnings profile for FY13-15, due mainly to the
capitalisation of the new Kochi terminal
• Raising target price to INR175 but downgrading to Outperform
post good share-price run since May 2012

Tata Motors Ltd. Think Indian, Buy global: BUY:: BofA Merrill Lynch,

Tata Motors Ltd.
Think Indian, Buy global:
Upgrading from Neutral to Buy
􀂄 Raising PO to Rs360
We upgrade Tata Motors from Neutral to Buy and raise our PO by 26% to Rs360.
This is solely driven by JLR, reflected in (1) increase in profit forecasts by 15-25%
on better sales mix, and (2) consequent re-rating to 4x EV/EBITDA (from 3.3x),
implying 20% growth premium (30% EBITDA CAGR) to global peers (10%
CAGR). We retain Buy on Class A shares (XTXMF) with our PO raised to Rs234.
JLR: Global transformation underway
Despite falling short of expectations in 1H (161,000 units), we expect JLR (80% of
cons EBITDA) to meet full-year sales expectations of 363,000 units (+15.5%) and
also sustain momentum over the forecast period. This will be driven by a slew of
products with far more market potential and improved pricing than anticipated
earlier. We therefore raise our profit estimates by 15-25% over FY14-15.
India business: Amidst downturn but closer to trough
Although the near-term outlook seems uncertain, prompting a sharp cut in core
profit forecasts, M/HCV (i.e. truck/bus) which is the key contributor could be closer
to trough, in our view. LCV is growing ahead of peers and Utility vehicle (UV) is
piggy-backing on structural uptrend. Cars, the often-repeated weak business link,
may not recover but lowered expectations are already built into forecasts.
Despite outperformance, key pick in autos
Despite stock outperformance, we justify a Buy rating now because deliverables
seem sustainable (profits, cash flows) and valuations still attractive. Risks include
global economic slowdown, pricing and currency fluctuations impacting JLR
profitability and delayed cyclical recovery in India, currently assumed for FY15.

Global Markets Outlook and Strategy ::JPMorgan

The Economy
Rising PMIs and capex signal that global growth could be set to rebound even
as the US fiscal cliff should first slow the US economy. Monetary policy to
move into more intense QE mode. 2.4% global growth in 2013, but 2.9% on
Q4/Q4 basis.
Asset allocation
Value, or still high-to-attractive risk premia, outright and vs. delivered
volatility, is at the core of our long equity, credit, and carry strategy. DM
equities near 10% return and credit in the 5% to 7.5% range. Government debt
in EM and DM near zero returns, when hedged into USD. We are long EM
across asset classes, and UW US in equities vs. Europe and Japan, the latter
currency hedged.
Cross asset volatility strategy
Our average implied volatility measure across five asset classes reached a new
post-Lehman low. We view the very low level of implied volatility and the
relentless compression of volatility risk premia as signs of complacency,
which makes us reluctant to recommend outright short vol trades.
Fixed income
We forecast slightly negative government bond returns next year, for the first
time since 1994. We are short duration in DM, but focus most risk on
overweighting the Euro area periphery.
Credit
We stay long credit into 2013. In US HG we focus on BBBs and financials. In
US HY we prefer single-Bs, and bonds to loans. In Europe we prefer HY to
HG, and in EM we focus on NEXGEM sovereigns.
Equities
An underweight in US equities remains our main regional theme for 2013. We
opened an OW in Topix vs. S&P500 currency hedged on Nov 16th. We see
this trade as a theme for 2013. Euro area peripheral countries should
outperform next year as the Euro debt crisis subsides. Favor a long in IBEX35
and MIB vs. DAX for 2013.
Currencies
2013 should see a gradual slide in the dollar versus Europe, and a 10% return
on EM currencies versus the USD.
Commodities
Our 2.9% global growth projection, Q4/Q4 is consistent with a return on
commodities near 10%. We stay long base metals on improving global
economic data and short agriculture on likely higher future production. We
also open a long in US natural gas.

Geometric Inorganic venture – Step in the right direction:: Prabhudas Lilladher,

Geometric has acquired 100% stake in Munich (Germany) based ‘3Cap Technologies
GmbH’, a specialist in automotive embedded system for ~€11m. The acquisition is inline
with the company’s stated objective of strengthening revenues from Europe,
Automotive vertical and Embedded System. We retain our “Accumulate” rating.

INDIA INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE tax free bond: Subscribe 0.64x

INDIA INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE COMPANY LIMITED
Sr. No	Category	No.of Bonds/NCDs offered/ reserved	No. of Bonds bid for	No of times subscribed
1	Category I	2250000	6007600	2.67
1(a)	Public Financial Institutions		0
1(b)	Scheduled Commercial Banks		6007600
1(c)	Provident Funds with minimum corpus of Rs.25 crores		0
1(d)	Pension Funds with minimum corpus of Rs.25 crores		0
1(e)	Insurance Companies registered with the IRDA		0
1(f)	National Investment Fund		0
1(g)	Mutual Funds registered with SEBI		0
1(h)	Alternative Investment Funds		0
1(i)	Multilateral and Bilateral Development Financial Institutions		0
1(j)	State Industrial Development Corporations		0
1(k)	Insurance Funds set up and managed by army/navy or air force of the Union of India		0
1(l)	Insurance Funds set up and managed by the Department of Posts		0
2	Category II	2250000	418069	0.19
2(a)	Companies and Bodies Corporate authorised to invest in the Bonds		418069
3	Category III	4500000	936770	0.21
3(a)	Resident Indian individuals more than Rs.10 lacs		936770
3(b)	Hindu Undivided Families more than Rs.10 lacs		0
4	Category IV	6000000	2204756	0.37
4(a)	Resident Indian individuals upto Rs.10 lacs		2118827
4(b)	Hindu Undivided Families upto Rs.10 lacs		85929
	Total	15000000	9567195	0.64
Updated as on 04 Jan 2013 at 1700 hrs

Bear call spread on Nifty:: Business Line

Technicals- Sterlite Industries, Subex, PSL, Foseco India, Balrampur Chini,Fresenius Kabi Oncology:: Business Line

10 investment ideas for 2013: BofA Merrill Lynch,

10 investment ideas for 2013:
1. Companies over countries (redux)
2. Buy neglected US multinationals
3. Buy small-cap Tech stocks
4. Add exposure to European equities
5. EM: stay long the consumer & scarce yield
6. Buy higher-beta credit sectors, especially financials
7. Focus on high-yielding sectors in munis
8. Long precious metals
9. Buy assets tied to US housing recovery
10. Continue to hedge risk (esp. in 1Q13)

Tax Talk- Jan 6:: Business Line

Kindly clarify the deduction of Rs 10, 000 in respect of interest on savings account with banks under section 80TTA of the Income-tax Act.

— Prashant Balakrishnan

MBL Infrastructures - BUY:: Business Line

Cipla Ltd - HOLD:: Business Line

Sizzling Stocks: Gitanjali Gems, Indian Bank :: Business Line