27 September 2012

Buy Ranbaby, Bhel:: IIFL


BHEL (BUY, above Rs255, Target Rs265):
BHEL on the daily chart has negated ‘Hanging Man’
pattern on candlestick after prices managed to
post a positive closing despite lower opening on
Wednesday. A move past Rs255 would ensure that
rally has good potential to test levels of Rs269
which turns out to be long term resistance. The
RSI despite entering into overbought position no
showing signs of faltering out and momentum
could extend higher in coming days. We
recommend buying BHEL above Rs255 with
stoploss of Rs250 for Target of Rs265.
(Duration 7 days).
Ranbaxy (BUY, above Rs536, Target Rs552):
Ranbaxy has been consolidating near the support
zone of Rs525 after it peaked out at Rs568 in
early September 2012. Currently stock price has
been hovering near the support of 50 DMA from
which sharp rally is expected in the near term.
Recent volumes is also on the higher side with
daily candlestick taking shape of ‘Bullish Harami’
formation. A move past Tuesday’s high has decent
potential to trigger sharp rally in the counter. We
recommend buying Ranbaxy above Rs536
with stop loss of Rs528 for Target of Rs552.

TTK Prestige:: A Pricy Kitchen King :: Karvy


A Pricy Kitchen King
TTK Prestige (TTKP) has transformed itself from a single product company
to a “total kitchen appliances company” in the last five years. It is the market
leader in pressure cookers and also commands numero uno position in
induction cook‐tops with a market share of 20%.

Bajaj Finance Ltd- Carving its own path…. BUY ::KRChoksey

We initiate Bajaj Finance with BUY rating and target price of Rs1314 (potential upside 17.8%). Unique business model, comprehensive product range, higher than industry growth outlook, decline in wholesale rates and sustainable return ratio are key investment arguments for the stock in our view. Higher-than-expected credit losses and tight liquidity condition are key risks to our recommendation.

September 2012 – “3 days that shook the World”:: Ice Cap


Shaking the World is fun
Elvis Presley was the King. Whenever he jumped on stage and got “all shook up” the World took notice. His kind of shaking was fun for everyone.
On the other hand, American President Kennedy and Soviet Premier Khrushchev didn’t quite get to shake the World, but they certainly forced the World to hold its breath over a tense 13 days. Unlike the King’s version, this kind of shaking wasn’t fun for anyone.
Meanwhile, in September 2012 the World’s central bank super powers are at it once again. This time however, the orchestrated shaking is intended to provide the best of both Worlds – fun for everyone who chooses to play along with the money printing schemes, and not so much fun for those who recognise the stress it is creating throughout the World’s financial system.
To fully appreciate this current shaking, one must first understand the simple law of diminishing returns.
The Law of Diminishing Returns
While there are plenty of complex laws to keep lawyers happily billing forever, there is one law that is very simple and is never mentioned by those responsible for the good health of our global economy - the law of diminishing returns.
This un-billable law becomes a nightmare for anyone trying to produce more of anything. It occurs when despite putting
September 2012 3 days that shook the World
increasingly more effort into an activity, the desired outcome becomes less and less rewarding.
Case in point, one just has to consider America’s growth of borrowed money and the resulting growth in GDP over the last 50 years.
Chart 1 on the next page shows that in the 1950s, America had to borrow just $1.36 to grow their economy by 1 extra dollar. That’s not so bad until you consider that over the next 50 years America had to borrow more and more to produce less and less GDP. In fact, during the 2000s America had to borrow $5.76 to grow its economy by an extra buck – that’s progress.
Now, we’re sure that over the years all of this borrowed money was put to great use. After all, the future never comes so why worry about it. Unfortunately, the future is today and the “credit cliff” is quite steep (see chart 2 page 3). The debt reaper is knocking on the door and he wants his money back. There’s just one minor problem – no one has the money to repay him.
No problem, the central banks & governments have plenty of money tools available to beat back any financial challenges presented by the debt reaper.
To make you feel more uncomfortable, let’s review the tricks in their money bag:

Economy & Strategy:: Lights, Camera, …. ::Ambit


Lights, Camera, ….
Our sources suggest that the Government is about to launch a wave of
reforms over the next month as part of a strategy which is likely to
culminate in General Elections a year hence. With significant progress
now being made on critical structural issues such as the Coal-Power-
SEB mess, we: (a) Maintain our FY13 GDP growth estimate at 6.3%; (b)
Introduce our FY14 GDP growth estimate at 7.1%; (c) Raise our Sensex
target of 19K (a target first published in our Jan ’12 research) to 23K.
Given that a number of investors have been caught on the wrong foot
by the Indian Government’s appetite for reform, we expect panic
buying of Indian equities over the next month or so followed by a
cooling off during the Winter Session of Parliament in late Nov-Dec.

Buy Abbott: Target Price 1808.00: First Call


Abbott India Ltd is a development,
manufacture and marketing of
pharmaceutical, diagnostic, nutritional &
hospital products in India.
Abbott India has received CE Mark for
XIENCE (Xpedition™ Everolimus Eluting
Coronary Stent System) & the company is
launching the product immediately in CE
Mark countries.
Abbott India has signed an agreement to
collaborate with Astellas Pharma Global
Development in a Phase 3 clinical trial for
TransVax™.
Abbott's Omnilink Elite® Vascular
Balloon-Expandable Stent System
receives FDA approval for Treatment of
Iliac Artery Disease.
Abbott India receives FDA Approval for
Healon EndoCoat Protective Gel for
Cataract Surgery.
During the quarter, the robust growth of
Net Profit is increased by 72.63% to Rs.
295.20 million.
Abbott India has declared a quarterly
dividend of 51 cents per share. The cash
dividend is payable on Nov. 15, 2012, to
shareholders.
Net Sales and PAT of the company are
expected to grow at a CAGR of 26% and
42% over 2010 to 2013E respectively.

Jubilant Foodworks::Core holding in India consumption basket :: Nomura research,


Core holding in India consumption basket
Moderating returns, but still an
attractive franchise to own

Godrej Consumer :Geographically diversified portfolio: Nomura research,


Geographically diversified portfolio
International strategy delivering
on the promise; more to come
in the next two years

ITC- Still smoking… Nomura research,


Still smoking…
Continues to deliver despite
tough regulatory environment;
Reiterate BUY

Nomura research, Hindustan Unilever -Move to Neutral– Look for a better entry point


Move to Neutral– Look for a better entry point
Levers working well again;
Upgrade to Neutral; would wait
for a better entry point

Consumer will continue to be king:: Nomura research,


Consumer will continue to be king
Valuations likely to remain at a
premium; Prefer ITC and GCPL
within our coverage

8 financial forecasts that went WRONG ::Morningstar


Irving Fisher
Morningstar has compiled a series of predictions about the stock market and the economy by legendary stock market experts and economists that fell flat.
It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future," said the inimitable Yogi Berra. And history is replete with instances where commentators -- many of whom had otherwise illustrious careers -- made predictions that were later proved completely wide off the mark.
While the likes of the Titanic being unsinkable or, more recently, apocalyptic forecasts about the Y2K bug are the stuff of legend, financial history offers several examples of its own that are now considered epic.
And even as research such as the one conducted by psychologist Philip Tetlock, who studies forecasts, has suggested that experts, on average, get it only slightly better at getting right than -- in the professor's words -- "chimps throwing darts" or someone making random choices, investors continue to seek out talking heads in the financial media to know where the stock market, a particular stock or the economy will head.
Here we pick forecasts that have gone down in history books for the wrong reasons. A fact that stands out is many of the calls were made at a market or an economy's inflection point -- or just when it is about to top or bottom out -- which drives home the point that even the so-called pros are not immune to falling prey to mental behavioural biases.
Financial predictions that fell flat
1. Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.
The greatest on the list of infamous predictions on the stock market came from Irving Fisher, the man whom legendary economist Milton Friedman called "the greatest economist the United States has ever produced".
Fisher, who made significant contributions to concepts such as utility theory and general equilibrium, said this three days before the Black Thursday crash in 1929 plunged America into the Great Depression.


DLF: Poised for re-rating on favorable macro impetus:: Motilal Oswal



DLF
: Poised for re-rating on favorable macro impetus
Operating consolidation, large ticket divestments to pay off

-      DLF is a major beneficiary of recent policy reforms and favorable macro trends.
-      Expect meaningful improvement in operating cash deficit (break-even by FY14) on the back of (1) re-aligning core operations to premium business mix, (2) focus on margin protection, and (3) execution ramp-up.
-      Success in large divestments implies higher potential to de-leverage, making DLF a strong play on rate downcycle. Expect net DER at 0.8x/0.69x in FY13/14.
-      The stock trades at 1.4x FY14E BV and 18% discount to NAV. Buy with TP of INR286.

BSE, Bulk deals, 27/9/2012

This data was last updated on Thursday, September 27, 2012  5:55:23 PM
Deal DateScrip CodeCompanyClient NameDeal Type *QuantityPrice **
27/9/2012524412Aarey DrugsDEEPIKA JASMIN SHAHB18449151.36
27/9/2012524412Aarey DrugsRIDHISIDHI FINANCIAL ADVISORY PRIVATE LIMITEDS7029950.37
27/9/2012524412Aarey DrugsDEEPIKA JASMIN SHAHS19640750.13
27/9/2012531519Ankush FinstockJAGRUT SAIDAS VANJAREB3690811.62
27/9/2012530261Arcuttipore TeaSEEMA GARGB2600027.52
27/9/2012533163Arss Infra ProjCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDB13466652.81
27/9/2012533163Arss Infra ProjCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDS13466652.97
27/9/2012530407Epic Energy-$KKK INVESTMENTS LIMITEDS11948511.96
27/9/2012526568Longview TeaLAXMI KANTB5904910.75
27/9/2012526568Longview TeaUCO BANKS6619710.75
27/9/2012534422Monarch HealthVISHAL SHARMAB4800042.26
27/9/2012534422Monarch HealthNETWORTH STOCK BROKING LTDS4800042.26
27/9/2012532606Parekh AlumPACIFIC CORPORATE SERVICES LTDB68176319.99
27/9/2012511734Pasupati FinPAWAN KUMAR AGGARWALB5000018.32
27/9/2012511734Pasupati FinCHARISHMA ENGINEERING LIMITEDS3300018.13
27/9/2012533581PG ElectroplastSATISH GOGIAS85000219.85
27/9/2012531646RFL IntlSANTOSH KUMARB740008.18
27/9/2012531646RFL IntlBHAILAL DEVRAJBHAI PATELS740008.18
27/9/2012532498Shriram City UniSBI MUTUAL FUND AC MSFUEBFB456666750.00
27/9/2012532498Shriram City UniVAN GOGH LIMITEDS456666750.00
27/9/2012519483Tai Inds-$JAI PITRESHWAR VYAPAAR PRIVATE LIMITEDB849056.24
27/9/2012519483Tai Inds-$CAMBERLEY INVESTMENTS LIMITEDS1060026.24
27/9/2012512101Triochem ProdMEHRANGARH FINANCIAL ADVISORS PRIVATE LIMITEDB670014.70
27/9/2012512101Triochem ProdRAMESH RAJARAM PATILS670014.70
27/9/2012507458United Brew HldgCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDB860439150.64
27/9/2012507458United Brew HldgCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDS865274150.49
* B - Buy, S - Sell
** = Weighted Average Trade Price / Trade Price

NSE, Bulk deals, 27-Sep-2012

DateSymbolSecurity NameClient NameBuy / SellQuantity TradedTrade Price /
Wght. Avg.
Price
Remarks
27-Sep-2012ARSSINFRAARSS Infra Proj. LtdCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.BUY1,34,66652.89-
27-Sep-2012ARSSINFRAARSS Infra Proj. LtdCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.SELL1,34,66652.83-
27-Sep-2012BALRAMCHINBalrampur Chini MillsAMRABATHI INVESTRA PVT LTDBUY14,26,52766.43-
27-Sep-2012BALRAMCHINBalrampur Chini MillsAMRABATHI INVESTRA PVT LTDSELL10,57,23366.78-
27-Sep-2012BALRAMCHINBalrampur Chini MillsBARCLAYS CAPITAL MAURITIUS LIMITEDSELL48,40,04666.10-
27-Sep-2012COREEDUTECCORE Education & Tech ltdBERMACO ENERGY SYSTEMS LIMITEDBUY9,29,986331.26-
27-Sep-2012COREEDUTECCORE Education & Tech ltdBERMACO ENERGY SYSTEMS LIMITEDSELL3,50,000335.09-
27-Sep-2012GPPLGujarat Pipavav Port LtdFRANKLIN TEMPLETON INVESTMENT FUNDSBUY45,58,26050.25-
27-Sep-2012GPPLGujarat Pipavav Port LtdICICI PRUDENTIAL MUTUAL FUND / ICICI PRU INFRASTUCTURE FUNDBUY34,81,20950.25-
27-Sep-2012GPPLGujarat Pipavav Port LtdICICI PRUDENTIAL MUTUAL FUND A/C ICICI PRU DISCOVERY FUNDBUY34,81,21050.25-
27-Sep-2012GPPLGujarat Pipavav Port LtdIDFC INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDSELL100,00,00050.28-
27-Sep-2012GPPLGujarat Pipavav Port LtdIDFC INFRASTRUCTURE FUND 2SELL100,00,00050.25-
27-Sep-2012HDILHousing Development and INIKHIL SECURITIES LIMITEDBUY26,64,11498.80-
27-Sep-2012HDILHousing Development and INIKHIL SECURITIES LIMITEDSELL26,64,11498.83-
27-Sep-2012HOTELRUGBYHotel Rugby LtdSANJAYKUMAR JAIPRAKASH AGARWALBUY72,54831.86-
27-Sep-2012HOTELRUGBYHotel Rugby LtdSANJAYKUMAR JAIPRAKASH AGARWALSELL4,33431.58-
27-Sep-2012HOTELRUGBYHotel Rugby LtdSAVITRIDEVI JAIPRAKASH AGARWALBUY1,28,08231.36-
27-Sep-2012HOTELRUGBYHotel Rugby LtdSAVITRIDEVI JAIPRAKASH AGARWALSELL1,21,63231.23-
27-Sep-2012IVRCLINFRAIVRCL LimitedBARCLAYS CAPITAL MAURITIUS LIMITEDBUY20,00,00046.99-
27-Sep-2012IVRCLINFRAIVRCL LimitedSOCIETE GENERALEBUY16,00,00046.88-
27-Sep-2012IVRCLINFRAIVRCL LimitedSWISS FINANCE CORPORATION (MAURITIUS) LIMITEDSELL27,50,00046.84-
27-Sep-2012KFAKingfisher Airlines Ltd.ALIVE CONSULTANTS ALIVEBUY109,10,93116.75-
27-Sep-2012KFAKingfisher Airlines Ltd.ALIVE CONSULTANTS ALIVESELL109,10,93116.77-
27-Sep-2012KFAKingfisher Airlines Ltd.AMBIT SECURITIES BROKING PVT. LTD.BUY45,84,11516.74-
27-Sep-2012KFAKingfisher Airlines Ltd.AMBIT SECURITIES BROKING PVT. LTD.SELL45,69,73416.78-
27-Sep-2012KFAKingfisher Airlines Ltd.TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.BUY130,16,82816.75-
27-Sep-2012KFAKingfisher Airlines Ltd.TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.SELL130,16,83916.76-
27-Sep-2012LAKSHMIEFLLakshmi Energy and FoodsBALBIR SINGH UPPALBUY6,25,00016.90-
27-Sep-2012LAKSHMIEFLLakshmi Energy and FoodsPBR IMPEX PRIVATE LIMITEDSELL6,25,00016.90-
27-Sep-2012MTNLMaha Tel Nigam Ltd.CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.BUY16,66,61534.47-
27-Sep-2012MTNLMaha Tel Nigam Ltd.CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.SELL16,66,61534.44-
27-Sep-2012MTNLMaha Tel Nigam Ltd.GOLDMAN SACHS INVESTMENTS MAURITIUS I LTDBUY17,93,48432.98-
27-Sep-2012MTNLMaha Tel Nigam Ltd.GOLDMAN SACHS INVESTMENTS MAURITIUS I LTDSELL2,19,02238.34-
27-Sep-2012MTNLMaha Tel Nigam Ltd.JAYNEEL SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITEDBUY26,12,11733.98-
27-Sep-2012MTNLMaha Tel Nigam Ltd.JAYNEEL SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITEDSELL25,97,11733.75-
27-Sep-2012MTNLMaha Tel Nigam Ltd.MORGAN STANLEY ASIA SINGAPORE PTEBUY31,75,00032.75-
27-Sep-2012MTNLMaha Tel Nigam Ltd.PASHUPATI CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.BUY1,39,99033.18-
27-Sep-2012MTNLMaha Tel Nigam Ltd.PASHUPATI CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.SELL19,77,46734.64-
27-Sep-2012MTNLMaha Tel Nigam Ltd.QUANT BROKING PRIVATE LIMITEDBUY1,20,00035.90-
27-Sep-2012MTNLMaha Tel Nigam Ltd.QUANT BROKING PRIVATE LIMITEDSELL16,32,00033.20-
27-Sep-2012MTNLMaha Tel Nigam Ltd.SANDEEP SATISH SABOOBUY29,96,49934.51-
27-Sep-2012MTNLMaha Tel Nigam Ltd.SANDEEP SATISH SABOOSELL30,00,73534.52-
27-Sep-2012MTNLMaha Tel Nigam Ltd.SSD SECURITIES PVT. LTD.BUY3,21,77135.81-
27-Sep-2012MTNLMaha Tel Nigam Ltd.SSD SECURITIES PVT. LTD.SELL43,36,07933.25-
27-Sep-2012MTNLMaha Tel Nigam Ltd.TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.BUY13,76,14334.14-
27-Sep-2012MTNLMaha Tel Nigam Ltd.TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.SELL13,92,74334.16-
27-Sep-2012NEHAINTNeha International LtdBRAJDHAM MARCANTILE PVT LTDBUY1,00,00023.00-
27-Sep-2012NEHAINTNeha International LtdINFINITY COMTRADE PRIVATELIMITEDBUY20,11523.00-
27-Sep-2012NEHAINTNeha International LtdINFINITY COMTRADE PRIVATELIMITEDSELL93,51122.99-
27-Sep-2012NORBTEAEXPNorben Tea & Exp Ltd.PALLAVI DAGABUY71,3005.05-
27-Sep-2012NORBTEAEXPNorben Tea & Exp Ltd.RAMESH KUMAR SHARMABUY8,7375.10-
27-Sep-2012NORBTEAEXPNorben Tea & Exp Ltd.RAMESH KUMAR SHARMASELL71,3005.05-
27-Sep-2012ONMOBILEOnMobile Global LimitedCREDIT SUISSE (SINGAPORE) LIMITED A/C CREDIT SUISSE (SINGAPBUY6,05,58545.14-
27-Sep-2012ORCHIDCHEMOrchid Chemicals Ltd.GOLDMAN SACHS INVESTMENTS MAURITIUS I LTDSELL5,80,000111.65-
27-Sep-2012PRAKASHCONPrakash Constrowell LtdASHROJ CREDIT INDIA PRIVATE LIMITEDBUY64,685133.36-
27-Sep-2012PRAKASHCONPrakash Constrowell LtdASHROJ CREDIT INDIA PRIVATE LIMITEDSELL64,685131.90-
27-Sep-2012PRAKASHCONPrakash Constrowell LtdJAYNEEL SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITEDBUY91,426134.75-
27-Sep-2012PRAKASHCONPrakash Constrowell LtdJAYNEEL SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITEDSELL1,06,732132.93-
27-Sep-2012RAJOILRaj Oil Mills LimitedANKIT KAMLESHBHAI SHAHBUY11,34,7558.23-
27-Sep-2012RAJOILRaj Oil Mills LimitedANKIT KAMLESHBHAI SHAHSELL11,34,7558.04-
27-Sep-2012RAJOILRaj Oil Mills LimitedBLACKHORSEMEDIA ANDENTERTAINMENT PRIVATELIMITEDBUY6,77,4148.68-
27-Sep-2012RAJOILRaj Oil Mills LimitedBLACKHORSEMEDIA ANDENTERTAINMENT PRIVATELIMITEDSELL6,77,4148.49-
27-Sep-2012RAJOILRaj Oil Mills LimitedPARK HABITATS PRIVATE LIMITEDSELL8,66,7538.22-
27-Sep-2012RUCHISOYARuchi Soya Inds Ltd.AVENTIS BIOFEEDS PRIVATE LTD AVENTIS BIOFEEDSBUY32,72,22482.59-
27-Sep-2012RUCHISOYARuchi Soya Inds Ltd.BARCLAYS CAPITAL MAURITIUS LIMITEDSELL22,56,00072.52-
27-Sep-2012RUCHISOYARuchi Soya Inds Ltd.MOEBIUS CREDIT AND CAPITAL PRIVATE LIMITEDBUY20,00,00083.40-
27-Sep-2012SHRIRAMCITShriram City Union FinancSBI MUTUAL FUND A/C SBI CONTRA FUND (036)BUY7,50,014750.00-
27-Sep-2012SHRIRAMCITShriram City Union FinancSBI MUTUAL FUND A/C SBI GLOBAL FUND (021)BUY3,50,000750.00-
27-Sep-2012SHRIRAMCITShriram City Union FinancVAN GOGH LIMITEDSELL9,35,000750.00-
27-Sep-2012SKUMARSYNFS. Kumars Nationwide LtdTRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.BUY20,00,74320.44-
27-Sep-2012SKUMARSYNFS. Kumars Nationwide LtdTRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.SELL21,76,74220.47-
27-Sep-2012TULIPTulip Telecom LimitedSUNIL CAPITAL CAPITAL & SECURITIES PVT LTDBUY7,36,30143.50-
27-Sep-2012TULIPTulip Telecom LimitedSUNIL CAPITAL CAPITAL & SECURITIES PVT LTDSELL7,11,30143.82-
27-Sep-2012UBHOLDINGSUnited Breweries (HoldingCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.BUY8,64,676150.39-
27-Sep-2012UBHOLDINGSUnited Breweries (HoldingCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.SELL8,67,483150.66-
27-Sep-2012UBHOLDINGSUnited Breweries (HoldingJAINAM INVESTMENTSSELL3,70,000148.18-