10 September 2012

Cement : Higher profitability to sustain, given increasing capex cost: Motilal Oswal


Top-3 maintain 8-9% volume growth guidance; seasonal price correction
below normal
We hosted ACC, Ambuja Cements and Grasim/Ultratech at the Motilal Oswal 8th Annual
Global Investor Conference. Mr Kuldeep Kaura, CEO & MD of ACC, presented at the CEO Track.
Highlights:
 Volumes are likely to grow 8-9% in FY13, driven by individual housing and expected
infrastructure push. Seasonal price correction has been sub-normal till August due to
delayed monsoon.
 Capacity addition should slow down to ~60mt over FY13-15. Increase in capex cost
necessitates sustenance of higher profitability; downside risks are limited.
 The costs of power, fuel and freight, which have been rising, are likely to stabilize at
elevated levels. The focus would remain on enhancing operating efficiencies and
maintaining margins.
 We prefer Ambuja and Grasim/Ultratech among large-caps and Shree Cement among
mid-caps.Top-3 maintain 8-9% volume growth guidance; seasonal price correction
below normal
We hosted ACC, Ambuja Cements and Grasim/Ultratech at the Motilal Oswal 8th Annual
Global Investor Conference. Mr Kuldeep Kaura, CEO & MD of ACC, presented at the CEO Track.
Highlights:
 Volumes are likely to grow 8-9% in FY13, driven by individual housing and expected
infrastructure push. Seasonal price correction has been sub-normal till August due to
delayed monsoon.
 Capacity addition should slow down to ~60mt over FY13-15. Increase in capex cost
necessitates sustenance of higher profitability; downside risks are limited.
 The costs of power, fuel and freight, which have been rising, are likely to stabilize at
elevated levels. The focus would remain on enhancing operating efficiencies and
maintaining margins.
 We prefer Ambuja and Grasim/Ultratech among large-caps and Shree Cement among
mid-caps.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 10-Sep-2012

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 10-Sep-2012 
 BUYSELLOPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY 
 No. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in Crores 
INDEX FUTURES35244931.00543731401.523603989272.31-470.52
INDEX OPTIONS2865547671.062530826734.67158103042325.49936.39
STOCK FUTURES35958941.2535716918.7193728924588.7922.54
STOCK OPTIONS27927736.5428539753.06525101405.53-16.52
      Total471.88

 


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FII & DII trading activity across NSE and BSE 10-09-2012

 BuySellNet
ValueValueValue
FII2033.661340.93692.73
DII665.1983.42-318.32

 
 

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Macro & Markets - Markets buoyant on ECB's action:: Edelweiss, PDF link


Even as the macro situation continues to remain under stress, statements from ECB have provided the much required boost for risk assets. Aided by healthy inflows (USD12.3bn for CY12 so far), India has emerged amongst the top performing markets globally. Meanwhile, the downgrades to earnings estimates resumed with 1.5% cut to FY13 EPS during August although the overall sluggish pace points to a gradual bottoming out of the downgrade cycle. With the slowdown in domestic economy spreading to consumption as reflected in latest GDP data, we have cut FY13 GDP growth forecast to 5.8% from 6.4% earlier. Rainfall meanwhile improved substantially, with seasonal rainfall deficit (Jun 01-Sept 05) now standing at ~10% below LPA (against ~20% in early August).


Gold all-time high of Rs 32,500


Gold all-time high of Rs 32,500


INFY - Lodestone deal - Motilal Oswal

Infosys today announced acquisition in consulting space of Lodestone Holding AG for an EV of CHF330mn.Acquisition is in line with Infosys guidance of expanding its expertise in consulting space. While the immediate financial impact is likely to be limited, we believe the deal is structurally positive for Infosys.

NSE, Bulk deals, 10-Sep-2012

DateSymbolSecurity NameClient NameBuy / SellQuantity TradedTrade Price /
Wght. Avg.
Price
Remarks
10-Sep-2012AMARAmar Remedies LimitedUMANG SHAILESH DESAISELL1,62,03543.90-
10-Sep-2012HOTELRUGBYHotel Rugby LtdJAIPRAKASH D AGARWALBUY92,31032.53-
10-Sep-2012HOTELRUGBYHotel Rugby LtdJAIPRAKASH D AGARWALSELL59,04532.60-
10-Sep-2012HOTELRUGBYHotel Rugby LtdSANJAYKUMAR JAIPRAKASH AGARWALBUY10,00032.60-
10-Sep-2012HOTELRUGBYHotel Rugby LtdSANJAYKUMAR JAIPRAKASH AGARWALSELL1,16,91432.60-
10-Sep-2012HOTELRUGBYHotel Rugby LtdSAVITRIDEVI JAIPRAKASH AGARWALSELL93,63432.60-
10-Sep-2012MANGTIMBERMangalam Timber Pro LtdABHI PLASTICS PVT LTDSELL98,28030.00-
10-Sep-2012MANGTIMBERMangalam Timber Pro LtdCENTURY TEXTILE & INDUSTRIES LBUY2,16,00029.88-
10-Sep-2012NUTEKNu Tek India LimitedCHHAKCHHUAK LALSANGLIANABUY14,89,6451.08-
10-Sep-2012SAREGAMASaregama India Ltd.STUISH CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDBUY95,51898.90-
10-Sep-2012SAREGAMASaregama India Ltd.STUISH CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDSELL95,51899.66-
10-Sep-2012THINKSOFTThinksoft Global Ser LtdCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.BUY61,191100.41-
10-Sep-2012THINKSOFTThinksoft Global Ser LtdCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.SELL61,191101.46-
10-Sep-2012THINKSOFTThinksoft Global Ser LtdGAJANAN ENTERPRISESBUY66,659104.66-
10-Sep-2012THINKSOFTThinksoft Global Ser LtdGAJANAN ENTERPRISESSELL65,125104.65-
10-Sep-2012THINKSOFTThinksoft Global Ser LtdINDUS PORTFOLIO (P) LTDBUY51,411105.02-
10-Sep-2012THINKSOFTThinksoft Global Ser LtdINDUS PORTFOLIO (P) LTDSELL51,411105.03-
10-Sep-2012THINKSOFTThinksoft Global Ser LtdRAHUL DOSHIBUY98,200101.82-
10-Sep-2012THINKSOFTThinksoft Global Ser LtdRAHUL DOSHISELL98,200103.01-
10-Sep-2012VADILALINDVadilal Industries LtdCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.BUY1,49,432288.53-
10-Sep-2012VADILALINDVadilal Industries LtdCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.SELL1,49,432288.68-
10-Sep-2012VADILALINDVadilal Industries LtdDINESH MUNJAL(HUF)BUY37,829284.56-
10-Sep-2012VADILALINDVadilal Industries LtdDINESH MUNJAL(HUF)SELL37,829285.92-
10-Sep-2012VENUSREMVenus Remedies LimitedCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.BUY57,154297.66-
10-Sep-2012VENUSREMVenus Remedies LimitedCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.SELL57,154297.31-

Infosys to Buy Lodestone Holding

Infosys Ltd. Monday said it will buy privately held Swiss business consulting company Lodestone Holding AG for an enterprise value of 330 million Swiss francs ($350 million), in the Indian outsourcing service provider's largest acquisition so far.

BSE, Bulk deals, 10/9/2012

Deal DateScrip CodeCompanyClient NameDeal Type *QuantityPrice **
10/9/2012526347ACCLAIM INDTARUNKUMAR GURUCHARAN BRAHMBHATTB2657045.75
10/9/2012532664Amar RemediesVORA FINANCIAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDB13455443.66
10/9/2012532664Amar RemediesVORA FINANCIAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDS13830443.66
10/9/2012530261Arcuttipore TeaBABITA AGARWALS2840019.97
10/9/2012531590BilpowerSAHELI TRADING PRIVATE LIMITEDB10000041.85
10/9/2012531590BilpowerBHAWARLAL JAJOOB7000041.85
10/9/2012531590BilpowerVIJAYMOHAN RAGAVAN NAIRS17500041.85
10/9/2012531590BilpowerNIKUNJ ALLOYS AND STEEL PRIVATE LIMITEDS10000041.85
10/9/2012531590BilpowerOMPRAKASH ENGINEERING PRIVATE LIMITEDS10000041.85
10/9/2012531590BilpowerLORRAINE FINANCE PRIVATE LIMITEDS10000041.85
10/9/2012524506Coral LabNAVIN BACHUBHAI DOSHIB2000075.00
10/9/2012524590Dinesh AllorgaGAJANAN ENTERPRISESS2688928.90
10/9/2012511636DJS StockMUKESH D MAHETALIAB5449546.03
10/9/2012511636DJS StockMUKESH D MAHETALIAS5051845.62
10/9/2012500840EIHRUSSEL CREDIT LTDB573889273.00
10/9/2012500840EIHHSBC BANK (MAURITIUS) LIMITEDS574423073.00
10/9/2012531820Finalysis CredPANKAJ JAYANTILAL DAVEB3100038.65
10/9/2012530689GREENLINE TEVIJAY KISHANLAL KEDIAB16050011.15
10/9/2012530689GREENLINE TEGIRDHAR DIDWANIAS16050011.15
10/9/2012514308Hanjer FibresBHARAT EQUITY SERVICES LIMITEDS700004.27
10/9/2012534422Monarch HealthVISHAL SHARMAB5700042.25
10/9/2012534422Monarch HealthSAGAR SHARMAB5700042.34
10/9/2012534422Monarch HealthNETWORTH STOCK BROKING LTDS11400042.29
10/9/2012590074Ortin Lab-$LOHA COMMODITIES TRADING LIMITEDB5500020.69
10/9/2012590074Ortin Lab-$RAJKUMARI HANUMANPRASAD SABOOS6881720.76
10/9/2012509874Shalimar Paint-$SAL REAL ESTATE PRIVATE LIMITEDB20000679.60
10/9/2012509874Shalimar Paint-$GAJANAN ENTERPRISESB20214681.63
10/9/2012509874Shalimar Paint-$GAJANAN ENTERPRISESS19837681.49
10/9/2012509874Shalimar Paint-$SAL REAL ESTATE PRIVATE LIMITEDS29304681.73
10/9/2012531695SHREYCHEMVISHAL BHARATBHAI SOLANKIB5052071.11
10/9/2012533121THINKSOFTCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDB61191101.49
10/9/2012533121THINKSOFTGAJANAN ENTERPRISESB57826108.33
10/9/2012533121THINKSOFTGAJANAN ENTERPRISESS53582106.90
10/9/2012533121THINKSOFTCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDS61191100.57
10/9/2012519156Vadilal Inds-$CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDB149432288.50
10/9/2012519156Vadilal Inds-$CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDS149372288.57
10/9/2012526953Venus RemediesCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDB57194297.09
10/9/2012526953Venus RemediesCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDS57194297.87
10/9/2012526441VISIONCINERAJA MOHAMAD BIN MAIDENB2000009.20
10/9/2012526441VISIONCINESRINIVAS KARROTHIS2075539.22
10/9/2012533427VMS IndsGREENBERRY NANDINI RKG PRIVATE LIMITEDB23000017.80
10/9/2012533427VMS IndsAPURVA RK HOTELS INDIA PRIVATE LIMITEDB10000017.80
10/9/2012533427VMS IndsNAVEEN KUMAR MEHTAS12500017.80
10/9/2012533427VMS IndsKANTA MEHTAS20000017.80
10/9/2012533427VMS IndsRITA MEHTAS12398817.80
10/9/2012512345Yash TradingBCB FINANCE LIMITEDB12175207.50
10/9/2012512345Yash TradingMADHUSUDAN LAXMINARAYAN DAGAS11000207.50
* B - Buy, S - Sell
** = Weighted Average Trade Price / Trade Price

NBFC - RBI's voice: Eye on gold loan NBFCs' processes; visit note:: Edelweiss PDF

We interacted with the Reserve Bank of India’s Department of Non-Banking Supervision to get the regulator’s perspective on: (i) operations of gold loan NBFCs (GLCs); (ii) relative importance of NBFCs within the financial system; and (iii) increased bank credit flowing to smaller NBFCs. With respect to GLCs, we are given to believe that besides growth, lax processes, weak internal controls, and increased customer complaints did not go well with the regulator. However, the regulator did not seem to be too uncomfortable with higher yields and cash involvement in gold loan disbursements. The committee report related to gold loan NBFCs under the guidance of Mr. K.U.B Rao is expected soon. For the regulator, increased bank funding to NBFCs is still not a cause of concern, though rising real estate exposure of NBFCs is creating some nervousness. RBI believes NBFCs continue to be systemically important in the Indian financial system due to their reach, customer relationships, etc; however, their supervision and norms need to be tightened a tad.

Infosys management call takeaways:Nomura research


We had a call with Infosys IR Mr. Sandeep Mahindroo on 30 August,
2012. Key takeaways from the call are:
Overall demand – in line with guidance, discretionary demand
remains spotty
The company does not see any broad-based pickup in discretionary
demand; although some pockets like Manufacturing or Retail are holding
up well, while other verticals including BFSI continue to be challenged.
Infosys has not seen discretionary deals getting bundled with cost
efficiency deals.

How to select bond funds :Hubbis


Henry Wong of BEA Union Investment Management Limited explains
the decision-making process and considerations for investors when
they buy individual bond funds, and looks at what can go wrong.

Fundamentals alone prevail :: Emkay in Business Line


Equity prices are determined by demand and supply, just like in any other market. If demand for a stock is more than its supply, its price moves up. Demand for the stock comes from availability of liquidity (or money). In the short term, therefore, stock price is more a function of liquidity than valuations. Years ago, a client summed it up very well: “Don’t try to fight liquidity.”
Valuations, on the other hand, serve as a tool to understand whether the price of the stock justifies the ability of its underlying business to provide expected returns. Hence, valuations are governed by two variables: the ability to predict future income generation, and to understand what the expected return is.
Liquidity has taken the central role in determining how the markets should trade in the recent past as governments all over have been pumping trillions to stimulate their economies hoping that the money cover provided will help them come out of trouble. It has caused imbalances elsewhere.
Liquidity has chased risk assets such as commodities, equities and high-yield bonds. It has caused turmoil in the currency markets and inflation in many emerging markets, the effects of which are beginning to be felt in our country.