Zee Entertainment Enterprises (Z IN, INR 154, Buy)
Most investors are still grappling with ZEE’s 18% YoY ad growth in Q1FY13 and want to know if this is a one-off. The ad growth looks particularly impressive in the backdrop of most print companies posting negative to low single digit ad growth (DB Corp: -0.6%, HT Media: -3% and HMVL: 6%). An improvement in market share has been critical for ZEE, especially in lieu of the recent downgrade in TV ad growth forecast to 5.6% YoY in 2012 by GroupM. Our analysis of declared Q1FY13 results of three consumer companies (HUL, Dabur and Colgate) suggests that on a combined basis, these companies have hiked ad spends by a massive 33.6% YoY. Overall media intensity for FMCG has increased from an indexed base of 103 in Q4FY12 to 107 in Q1FY13 due to expansion in gross margins. Because FMCG contributes ~53% to ZEE’s ad revenues, its ad growth appears sustainable. Also, ZEE will be one of the safest and most attractive stocks to play the digitisation theme. Maintain ‘BUY’.