Media - Q1FY13 Preview - Centrum

Q1FY13 Results Preview

Media

Slowdown in ads continues

We expect Q1FY13 results to be subdued on the back of weak advertising environment coupled with economic slowdown. Ad revenue growth is expected to be in 0% – 7% range. Margins are expected to shrink on the back of high cost which would impact profitability. We expect a positive surprise from ZEEL on the back of strong rating improvement, Balaji Telefilms on the back of cost rationalisation and Jagran Prakashan while expecting  a negative surprise from HT Media and Sun TV Network.

TOP PICKS , Strategy Report – July 2012 :Centrum

Strategy Report – July 2012

Summary of Views

m  Positive on the markets – Expect Sensex to breach 20,500 by March end 2013

m  Key Overweight – Banking and Pharma sectors and Midcap Space

m  INR should see bottom at 57/USD and appreciate closer to 54 levels post presidential election

m  Monsoons remain a concern but real impact on economy diminishing

m  Expect government action on FDI in multi-brand retail and passage of Bills (pertaining to Insurance, Banking & Pension) due to mounting pressure from weak macro, drawdown of forex reserves and recent political realignment

Angel Broking - Result Update on HDFC Ltd.

HDFC Ltd - RU1QFY2013

JBF Industries Ltd - Detailed Independent Equity Research report :Crisil

JBF Industries Ltd Moving a step ahead by going backward Fundamental Grade        3/5 (Good fundamentals) Valuation Grade         5/5 (CMP has strong upside) Industry         Chemicals                                                                                                    Date: July 10, 2012

Polyester chip manufacturer JBF Industries Ltd (JBF) is backward integrating to produce PTA (purified terephthalic acid) to ensure a steady supply of raw material for its chips plant. Post integration, it will benefit from lower raw material and freight costs along with lesser working capital requirement. This will make it cost competitive and improve its operating margin. We maintain our fundamental grade of 3/5, indicating that its fundamentals are goodrelative to other listed securities in India.

Banking Asset quality to remain key focus area :Centrum

Q1FY13 Results Preview

Banking

Asset quality to remain key focus area

Incremental restructuring and future pipeline will continue to dominate the attention of investors even as other asset quality matrices are likely to remain largely stable. Relatively higher provisioning cost for PSBs led by slippages and incremental restructuring should lead to continuation of the divergent earnings performance trend among private banks and PSBs. HDFC Bank & ICICI Bank should lead the large caps while FED & CUB should fare relatively better among small cap banks.

Cement - Q1FY13 Results Preview - Centrum

Q1FY13 Results Preview

Cement

Sequential contraction in margins despite higher prices

We expect aggregate sales volumes of our coverage universe to grow 5.6% YoY to 29.5mt driven by improved demand in the East and West regions in the quarter. Average cement realization is expected to improve 7.1% YoY (and 2.6% QoQ) to Rs4,112/tonne led by sharp improvement in cement price in the Central and East regions. Though volume and realization are expected to increase, rising costs would lead to 1.6pp contraction in average EBITDA margin of our coverage universe. Industry despatches during the quarter is expected to increase 8.4% YoY to 58.3mt.  Though manufacturers are able to pass on the rising costs to consumers, we are not expecting margin expansion in the near future due to rising costs for players. Slowdown in housing and real estate construction activities along with economic slowdown which has kept capex cycle of industries under pressure remain a concern for sustainable demand growth. We believe sales volume and realization will be under pressure in the monsoon season and expect weakness in cement prices as seen in last two years. We remain concerned on the higher valuation of the top 3 players (ACC, Ambuja and Ultra Tech) which are trading in the range of 10-11x FY13E EV/EBITDA compared to their historical average of 7-8x and maintain Sell rating on these stocks.

Gruh Finance Q1FY13 result first cut: Microsec

Gruh Finance Ltd has announced its Q1FY13 result on July 12, 2012. The company’s top line decreased by 10.84% QoQ and increased by 29.60% YoY to INR147.77 crores. Whereas, bottom line decreased by 51.92% QoQ and increased by 30.02% YoY to INR26.72 crores.

BofA Merrill Lynch, - US credit vs. European uncertainties ::PDF link

BOAML - US credit vs. European uncertainties