15 June 2012

India Strategy: ICICI Bank CEO Chanda Kochhar: Sentiment Is Worse than Reality :: Morgan Stanley Research,


India Strategy:
CEOSpeak
Chanda Kochhar: Sentiment
Is Worse than Reality
You know your company, now know its CEO: This is
the seventh entry in our product series, which seeks to
present India’s most famous and successful CEOs and
their views on India, the industries in which they operate,
and the companies they run – plus a bit of a perspective
on what drives them in life.



FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 15-Jun-2012




FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 15-Jun-2012 
 BUYSELLOPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY 
 No. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in Crores 
INDEX FUTURES592691486.87507071289.4041901010529.23197.47
INDEX OPTIONS66089716743.8565007716458.88171591844075.19284.97
STOCK FUTURES487091225.57560301418.5094687623174.19-192.93
STOCK OPTIONS451541180.63464591211.99522391350.98-31.36
      Total258.16

 

-- 

RBI's Mid Quarter Monetary Policy June 18 Preview :Microsec




The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is scheduled to announce its Mid Quarter Monetary Policy on June 18. This time the expectation of economists, bankers and analysts on June 18 monetary policy are poles apart. As per the Bloomberg poll, 17 out of 23 economists predicts a 25 basis points repo rate cut, 2 predicts 50 basis points cut and 4 economists predicts that RBI will leave repo rates unchanged at 8 percent.


Derivatives Info Kit [For June 15, 2012] ShareKhan PDF link





DERIVATIVES INFO KIT

Click here to read report: 
Derivatives Info Kit


RBI Policy Preview - 25bps repo cut likely; CRR cut not ruled out:: Edelweiss PDF link


In the forthcoming mid quarter monetary policy review, RBI is likely to cut repo rate by 25bps, while the possibility of 50bps CRR cut cannot be ruled out. The domestic economy is operating far below potential and lag impact of high interest rates is here to stay. This will keep core inflation under check. Besides, global macro and financial market environment has worsened materially, adding to downside risks related to domestic economy while global commodity prices have softened even in INR terms. In fact, we argue that current elevated interest rates are actually becoming counter-productive. Arguments against rate cut (such as weak INR, stretched CD ratio) are not convincing, in our view. 

Regards,



BSE, Bulk deals, 15/6/2012



Deal DateScrip CodeCompanyClient NameDeal Type *QuantityPrice **
15/6/2012530901ACILB M TRADERSB15670770.13
15/6/2012530901ACILSHOBHIT KUMAR GARGB14100030.13
15/6/2012530901ACILROHNIL BORADIAS14839380.13
15/6/2012530901ACILB M TRADERSS14670770.14
15/6/2012524760Arvind Intl-$PIYUSH PVT. LTD.S10000014.38
15/6/2012512608Bhandari HosCHETAN DHIRB5200042.73
15/6/2012512608Bhandari HosDESAI SOLUTIONS & SERVICESS11126942.03
15/6/2012511710Cubical FinPAWAN FINVEST PRIVATE LIMITEDS18700023.32
15/6/2012531820Finalysis CredKALPANA MUKESH RUIAS3500063.72
15/6/2012514394Gee El WoollensSUNDEEP CREDITS PVT LTDB3000033.68
15/6/2012514394Gee El WoollensSORUS POWER PVT LTDB4720033.50
15/6/2012514394Gee El WoollensSHEFALI SURESHCHAND MEHTAS4470033.50
15/6/2012514312Jaihind SynDINESH JAYNTALAL DOSHIS3300014.42
15/6/2012512129Jayant MercDINESHBHAI D AMINB1000003.20
15/6/2012512129Jayant MercURMIL CHANDRAGUPTA MEHTAS1250003.20
15/6/2012531206Kwality CredSANIDHYA MITTALB3300055.55
15/6/2012531206Kwality CredSHASHI SURANAS5250055.50
15/6/2012531206Kwality CredESHITA SURANAS5396755.78
15/6/2012590117Mahaveer Infoway-$DALPATBHAI RAMCHANDBHAI PANCHALB2900011.11
15/6/2012590117Mahaveer Infoway-$SUNIL KUMAR GUPTAS3094311.44
15/6/2012506041Mahesh AgriRAHUL ANANTRAI MEHTAB68339.26
15/6/2012506041Mahesh AgriVIRAL PRAFUL JHAVERIS93339.26
15/6/2012530497Marvel CapitalJAGDISH SUDHAKAR KADAMS7890020.07
15/6/2012526723NTC IndSHEETAL DUGARB13354320.27
15/6/2012590074Ortin Lab-$SHARADBHAI GHANSHYAMBHAI MEHTAB2480122.75
15/6/2012505525Parichay InvestPATEL DIPAL VIRENDRAKUMARB10000168.74
15/6/2012511702Parsharti InvPUSHPA BAIB3200010.72
15/6/2012511702Parsharti InvMOHANLALB3800010.50
15/6/2012511702Parsharti InvSANJAY JETHALAL SONI HUFS3620110.51
15/6/2012533470Rushil DecorSAMIRKUMAR DIPAKBHAI SHAHB113916214.84
15/6/2012533470Rushil DecorALOK FINANCE PVT. LTD.S110000215.00
15/6/2012531794Seshachal TechSUMIT SUNIL SADHS5924415.13
15/6/2012506874Shreejal InfoPUSHPA HIRACHAND BAFNAB390001.24
15/6/2012506874Shreejal InfoSHIBU THANKAPPANS390001.24
15/6/2012531874Venus Power VenturesBALAJI TAMMINEEDIB10000024.35
15/6/2012533427VMS IndsAASHISH DEVELOPERB19349855.60
* B - Buy, S - Sell
** = Weighted Average Trade Price / Trade Price



NSE, Bulk deals, 15-Jun-2012



DateSymbolSecurity NameClient NameBuy / SellQuantity TradedTrade Price /
Wght. Avg.
Price
Remarks
15-Jun-2012ARSSINFRAARSS Infra Proj. LtdIFCI LTD.SELL1,22,56145.01-
15-Jun-2012HOTELRUGBYHotel Rugby Ltd.ANIL CHHOTUBHAI DESAIBUY3,00020.29-
15-Jun-2012HOTELRUGBYHotel Rugby Ltd.ANIL CHHOTUBHAI DESAISELL89,73218.70-
15-Jun-2012KFAKingfisher Airlines Ltd.TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.BUY34,25,83713.75-
15-Jun-2012KFAKingfisher Airlines Ltd.TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.SELL34,25,83813.75-
15-Jun-2012SAVERASavera Industries LtdLOK PRAKASHAN LTDBUY54,00037.00-
15-Jun-2012SAVERASavera Industries LtdRAVIRAJ DEVELOPERS LTDSELL54,21436.99-
15-Jun-2012TIJARIATijaria Polypipes LtdSTELLAR CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDBUY1,23,3937.80-


Gujarat Pipavav Port -- An anchor in a new era :GEPL



Investment Rationale
Rich Background of promoters
GPPL is managed by APM Terminals and is part of APM Moller–Maersk Group. It is the largest
container ship operator and supply vessel operator in the world since 1996 and operates in and
around 130 countries. APM Terminals offers the global shipping community a geographically
balanced, integrated Global Port, Terminal and Inland Services Network which includes current
operations in 56 ports and terminals in 37 countries. With such a rich experience, we believe
that the management team is very well equipped and has an expertise in handling of containers.


Pantaloon Retail - Finding its way out of debt trap; visit note; Hold: Edelweiss PDF link



Pantaloon Retail (PF IN, INR 165, Hold)
We met Mr. C.P. Toshniwal, CFO, Pantaloon Retail (PRIL), in the backdrop of the company recently cracking significant back-to-back deals to cut its burgeoning debt. These steps will trim the company’s interest expenditure and more such deleveraging exercises are on the cards as lowering debt is the company’s prime priority currently. However, our key concerns on slow SS growth (compared to peers like Shoppers Stop), sale of higher margin ‘Pantaloon format’, high attrition in top management and higher inventory days remain. Maintain ‘HOLD’.


Birla Sun Life Dynamic Bond: Invest ::Business Line




Fund Talk: Give SIPs time to work ::Business Line




SIP returns have declined over the period beginning October-November 2009, as markets fell in 2011.
I started investing in HDFC Top 200 (growth) through SIP in 2009. From Rs 1,000 initially, I increased the SIP to Rs 4,000 a month to save for my children's education. I want to invest for at least another 10 to 12 years. The capital invested is Rs 80,000 but current value of investment is Rs 75,000.
I want to increase my savings by Rs 1,000. Given the current performance of the fund, can I build enough wealth for my children's education or should I move to another fund?
— Arunkumar



LKP LIKES : MARUTI SUZUKI (Buy, Target Rs.1225)



MARUTI SUZUKI (Buy, Target Rs.1225)

Ø  Maruti has been feeling the pain in its petrol portfolio due to the wide gap between petrol and diesel prices and this coupled with the fact that its diesel portfolio has been facing constraints on account of diesel engine capacities has kept the stock depressed at levels of 1100
Ø  Now with the merger of Suzuki Powertrain which to our mind would ensure better operational efficiencies and supply chain management we believe that the diesel portfolio constraint should get addressed and improve margins
Ø  Given its huge distribution network spanning across India and fuel efficient products , we believe that cooling of  interest rates makes Maruti trading at 14x current years expected earnings  a profitable trade at current levels with a price target of 1225


Jaiprakash Associates -TP: INR103 Buy :Motilal Oswal



 4QFY12 EBITDA/PAT above estimates: During 4QFY12, Jaiprakash Associates reported standalone revenues of
INR41b (up 4% YoY), EBITDA of INR10b (up 32 % YoY), and net profit stood of INR2.8b (down 3.3% YoY). Reported
EBIDTA/PAT is better than our estimate of INR32b and INR6.8b, respectively. Operating performance is driven
by higher EPC / RE division, while performance of Cement division was muted. Interest cost for the quarter
was higher at INR5.8b (vs INR4.5b QoQ), which negated gain on operational front. Lower Tax/PBT ratio (9%)
however arrested PAT de-growth (PBT down 19% YoY).
 Cement business performance muted: Cement division sales for 4QFY12 stood at 4.25m tons (flat QoQ)
pertaining to JAL (Gujarat cement plant divested in Jaypee Cement - 100% subsidiary). Realisation / EBIDTA
for the division was up by INR25/ton and INR82/ton QoQ. EBIT for the division however stood flat at INR2.1b
owing to higher depreciation.
 E&C business performance driven by higher margin: EPC division performance was driven by superior margin
(EBIT margin at 24%, while revenue down 1% YoY) due to completion of Yamuna Expressway, Karcham Wangtoo
project, etc. Real estate division revenues picked up after 3-quarters of lull performance, which along with
higher EBIT margin (45% for 4Q) led to higher positive contribution QoQ.
 Focus on deleverage (consolidated FY12 net DER at 3.8x): For JPA group, the earnings/cashflows will be driven
by commissioning of projects across its cement (10m tons), power (1.5GW), infrastructure (toll road project,
INR133b cost) and real estate (traction in launches, bookings) business. JPA group plans to focus on
consolidation and de-leveraging (consolidated net DER of 3.8x as at March 2012) and is exploring various
options.
 Downgrading FY13/14E estimates, maintain Buy: We marginally downgrade (2-4%) our earnings for JPA to
factor in higher interest cost, which is partially set-off due to strong cement realisation, EPC/RE business
traction. We now expect JPA to report standalone net profit of INR8.2b in FY13E (down 20% YoY) and INR11.1b
in FY14E (up 37% YoY). Maintain Buy with TP of INR103/sh.


Bajaj Electricals Margins under pressure – Consumer appliances growth a silver lining:: ITI research



BJE’s Q4 FY12 Results was broadly in line with below our expectation which grew by 8%
YoY at Rs 10,602mn. The operating margin however was marginally below our
estimation remained at 8% a de growth of 200 bps YoY. The decline in the EBITDA
margin was due to raw material cost as % of sales climbed to 78% from 75% QoQ.
We expect current rupee deprivation would impact margins as input costs rise and BJE
will find it difficult to pass on the increased cost given the current demand scenario.
Along with that E& P BU continues to be a drag on the overall business as we see no
significant improvement in the margins given that Q4 is the best quarter for the
business. The segment reported an EBIT margins of 6% only 200bps improvement in
QoQ. We were expecting around 300‐350 bps improvement.
We are confident about the top line growth of 13‐14% for the BJE, as the focus on Tier 1
and Tier II cities will help them fight the demand slowdown in urban areas for consumer
appliances and Fans and also lighting business is expected to grow at 15‐20% range. BJE
has a total order book size of Rs 610cr and another contract of Rs 650cr is expected to
be added as they are the L1 bidder.
We retain Accumulate with a TP of Rs 195


Hathway Cable & Datacom - Padding up for the digital revolution: Edelweiss PDF link


Hathway Cable & Datacom (Hathway) is well equipped for the impending June 30 deadline for Phase 1 of digitisation. As per Ministry of Information & Broadcasting (MIB) data, only ~24% (2.9mn) set top boxes have been seeded, out of the total 12.3mn required. Out of these, Hathway alone has seeded 0.9mn boxes (40% penetration of its universe) and is the best prepared MSO. Even though the government, as of now, remains firm on meeting the Phase 1 deadline, we expect a ~3-6 months’ delay. This delay is a minor hiccup as major stakeholders remain committed to digitisation. Also, Hathway will now offer 20 HD channels, one of the highest amongst both MSOs and DTH operators, which will aid digitisation and improve ARPU. Though the stock has outperformed the Sensex ~43% since our initiating coverage report on January 17, 2012, we remain positive on the stock over the longer term. Maintain ‘BUY’.  

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) 15 June


Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
After previous day’s indecisive session, the index finally slipped down to 5050 levels in yesterday session on the back of profit taking at higher levels. Nifty opened on a flat note and traded in a tight range in the morning session and started to crack down once it closed below its 21-hourly EMA, and went down to settle near its 50-hourly EMA at 5052. The bearish momentum oscillators on the hourly charts had warned of correction, however the index now seems to be close to its strong support levels of 5010 / 5000 from where it has room to move higher. Volumes were dismal in yesterday’s session and the breadth was strongly in favour of declines. Volatility climbed up to 25.71, tracked by the India VIX. The daily MACD has managed to move into positive territory which is a positive sign. Since we are in the final session of the week, Nifty needs to manage a close above 5068 for a continuation of the one week uptrend, whereas a weekly negative close could signal further profit taking into the next week. Using 5000 as a bullish pivot, one can look to create trading longs for a test of the 50% retracement levels of 5200.

Barring the IT index (+0.33%), all other sectoral indices ended the day in the red. Among the top losers of the day were stocks from Realty (-2.91%), Banking (-2.82%) and Cap Goods (-2.79%) indexes. Broader market indices too ended lower as the Mid-cap index shed 1.27% and the Small-cap index lost 0.67%.

Bullish Setups: CNXBANK, REC, HUVR, DRRD, SIEM
Bearish Setups: INFO, HDFC, MM
  
Regards,
Edelweiss Research



Multi Commodity Exchange -CEO Stepping Down, Turnover Stepping Up  Citi Research



Multi Commodity Exchange Ltd. (MCEI.BO)
CEO Stepping Down, Turnover Stepping Up
 CEO stepping down end on June 12, replacement soon — MCX’s current CEO, Mr
Lamon Rutten, will not seek an extension to his current term (ending June 2012) due to
family reasons; however, will continue to be present on its Board (as a non-executive
director). We believe the company is operationally stable and is expected to announce
a replacement soon, which will need the regulator’s (FMC) approval as well.


Sales Traders Commentary : 15 June: Edelweiss


Sales Traders Commentary
The Indian markets dropped over 1% on Thursday on concerns that higher-than-expected inflation will reduce possibility of aggressive monetary easing by RBI on June 18. Weak European markets further intensified the selling pressure.
While the Sensex closed at 16677, down 203 points, the Nifty slipped 67 points to end the day at 5055.
Major gainers were Infosys Technologies (1.08%), Cipla (0.36%), I T C (0.25%), and Sterlite Industries (India) (0.15%).
Major losers were Tata Motors (4.60%), Larsen & Toubro (3.92%), I C I C I Bank (3.70%), NTPC (3.66%), State Bank Of India (3.06%), and Maruti Suzuki India (2.82%).
The IT index jumped 0.25%. Major gainers were Tech Mahindra (1.43%), Infosys (1.08%), Hexaware Technologies (1.06%) and CORE Education and Technologies (0.76%).
The Realty index slipped 3.04%. Major losers were Indiabulls Real Estate (6.93%), Anant Raj Industries (4.8%), D B Realty (2.35%), D L F (2.2%) and Godrej Properties (2.16%).
The Bankex was down 2.94%. Major losers were Canara Bank(4.65%), Bank Of Baroda (3.32%), Bank Of India (3.16%), Federal Bank (1.6%) and H D F C Bank (1.23%).
The Capital Goods index slipped 2.89%. Major losers were Alstom Projects India (3.2%), A I A Engineering (1.97%), BEML (1.95%), Bharat Electronics (1.39%) and A B B (0.36%).
Major losers in the mid–cap space were Alstom Projects India (3.2%), A I A Engineering (1.97%), A B G Shipyard (0.66%), Alok Industries (0.55%) and Aban Offshore (0.17%).
Major losers among small – cap were A2Z Maintenance & Engineering Services (3.35%), Reliance MediaWorks (2.23%), Adhunik Metaliks (2.23%), A B G Infralogistics (1.4%) and Trident (0.21%).
Globally, Asian indices ended on a lower note while European indices were trading in the red.



Stocks in News : 15 June: Edelweiss



 Stocks in News
DoT to bargain with Telcos for lowering reserve price (ET)
Coal India sees INR 60 bn revenue loss a year post fuel supply pacts (ET)
Tata Commumnications in talks to buy big stake in Prizm payments (ET)
Birla, Lafarge eye JP cements plants (ET)
Tata Power puts on hold new imported coal-fired projects (ET)
Sesa investors urged to vote against merger of Vedanta group cos (ET)
Govt defers Urea price hike by 10% (ET)
Gas output from RIL’s D6 block drops to 31.5 mmcmd (ET)
HPCL keen to partner ONGC for refinery (DNA)