IIP - Downturn continues : Edelweiss, PDF link

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IIP contracted in March by ~3.5% YoY against our expectation of ~1.6% expansion. Sharp contraction of ~21% in capital goods was the key reason behind the dip; but given high volatility in this component, the overall weakness may be exaggerated. Nonetheless, it is clear that industrial activity remains depressed and the uptick in IIP since late last year is not sustaining as a trend. Therefore, while the industry may have emerged from a phase of extreme weakness (May-Oct last year), recovery is weak and fragile. Q4FY12 industrial activity has also been weaker than expected. Ergo, we are downgrading our FY12 GDP growth forecast to ~6.8% from ~7.0% earlier. We reiterate that for a sustainable turnaround in business cycle, rate cuts need to be complemented with pick up in government policy action. Until then, sharp upturn in the economy will remain a pipedream.

IIP - Downturn continues

Regards,

BSE, Bulk deals, 11/5/2012

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Deal Date	Scrip Code	Company	Client Name	Deal Type *	Quantity	Price **
11/5/2012	531560	Aroma Enterprises	VARSHABEN AJAYBHAI NAIK	B	45000	12.10
11/5/2012	531560	Aroma Enterprises	KIRTI POPATJI THAKOR	S	45000	12.10
11/5/2012	500029	Autolite India	AUTOLITE MANUFACTURING LTD	B	271815	16.88
11/5/2012	500029	Autolite India	PALSOFT	S	271815	16.88
11/5/2012	530457	Cinerad Comm	PREMJI BHURALAL GALA	B	50000	13.79
11/5/2012	530457	Cinerad Comm	VIMESH ZAVERI	S	49500	13.80
11/5/2012	512379	Cressanda Sol	ABHARAJ TRADERS PVT LTD	B	628000	8.05
11/5/2012	512379	Cressanda Sol	SANDEEP TALWAR	S	628000	8.05
11/5/2012	530581	Ekam Leasing	GAJRAJ JAIN	S	80000	32.90
11/5/2012	521099	Emtex Inds	GINNI HOLDINGS LTD	B	27959	4.66
11/5/2012	521099	Emtex Inds	SUBHASH UDAIPURI CHIRANJILAL	S	27959	4.66
11/5/2012	526532	Essen Supp	GREENVIEW TRACOM PVT LTD	B	65000	21.50
11/5/2012	526532	Essen Supp	SAMIKSHA RESOURCES PRIVATE LIMITED	S	65000	21.50
11/5/2012	531820	Finalysis Cred	ASHRAF USMANI	S	35000	56.86
11/5/2012	514312	Jaihind Syn	DINESH JAYNTALAL DOSHI	S	25500	12.81
11/5/2012	530497	Marvel Capital	RAGINI NARESH SINGH	B	25000	20.90
11/5/2012	511734	Pasupati Fin	VIPUL MOHANLAL JOSHI	B	25000	22.60
11/5/2012	511734	Pasupati Fin	SITADEVI ARUNKUMAR TULSIYAN	S	25000	22.70
11/5/2012	511734	Pasupati Fin	KRISHNAKUMAR RAMCHANDRA MODI	S	25000	22.60
11/5/2012	512465	Santowin Corp	ESQUIRE ENCLAVE PRIVATE LIMITED	B	500000	13.60
11/5/2012	512465	Santowin Corp	SANJAY SRICHAND VANWARI	S	500000	13.60
11/5/2012	531695	SHREYCHEM	ARSENAL FINSTOCK SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED	S	42617	47.31
11/5/2012	530867	Suryanagri Fin	NILKAMAL PROPERTIES PRIVA TE LIMITED	B	100000	50.40
11/5/2012	530867	Suryanagri Fin	BRAIN BUSINESS PVT. LTD	B	40000	50.50
11/5/2012	530867	Suryanagri Fin	CHIMANLAL JAIGOPAL SHAH	S	150000	50.43
11/5/2012	510245	Swasti Vinay Syn	ROHIT ANIL DIXIT	B	476552	8.21
11/5/2012	510245	Swasti Vinay Syn	RAJIV OM PRAKASH BHARGAVA	B	1191751	8.33
11/5/2012	510245	Swasti Vinay Syn	SABIHA SHAIKH	S	1000485	8.33
11/5/2012	521226	Uniroyal Inds	ARVIND MAHAJAN	B	42899	4.95
11/5/2012	590111	VAISHNAVI	SAI NITHISHA PARVATHANENI	B	101201	7.10
* B - Buy, S - Sell
** = Weighted Average Trade Price / Trade Price

NSE, Bulk deals, 11-May-2012

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Date	Symbol	Security Name	Client Name	Buy / Sell	Quantity Traded	Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price	Remarks
11-May-2012	BARTRONICS	Bartronics India Limited	RELIGARE FINVEST LTD	SELL	3,15,529	26.21	-
11-May-2012	HDIL	Housing Development and I	GENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT LTD	BUY	25,61,194	63.80	-
11-May-2012	HDIL	Housing Development and I	GENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT LTD	SELL	25,61,194	63.83	-
11-May-2012	HOTELRUGBY	Hotel Rugby Ltd.	DARSHANA MAHENDRA THACKER	SELL	1,50,000	14.80	-
11-May-2012	KFA	Kingfisher Airlines Ltd.	TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.	BUY	48,92,000	13.91	-
11-May-2012	KFA	Kingfisher Airlines Ltd.	TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.	SELL	48,92,000	13.92	-
11-May-2012	RUSHIL	Rushil Decor Limited	NIRAJ REALTORS & SHARES PVT LTD	SELL	74,859	227.74	-

Revised Schedule VI: Disclosures galore; benefits to accrue :Edelweiss, PDF link

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Changing face of financial statements

Indian corporates are increasingly getting innovative in the preparation of financial statements. With a view to bring about greater transparency to investors and readers of financial statements, the Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) has modified the existing ‘Schedule VI’ format (‘old format’) of Companies Act, 1956. Schedule VI lays down the format for the presentation and disclosure of Balance Sheet (BS) and Profit & Loss account. The ‘new format’ named ‘Revised Schedule VI’ is yet another step in the right direction for ultimately migrating towards IFRS.

Franklin India Opportunities: Switch :Business Line,

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Benefit of indexation available for cost of improvement :Business Line

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I want to sell an inherited non agricultural land (converted from agricultural to non agricultural land in 2010) which was transferred in my name in 1993. The date of Deputy Commissioner Order for non agricultural land (residential) is February 15, 2010 and the date of the Record of Right (7/12 utara) is March 27, 2010. Please confirm which date will be considered for the land to be effective. Also, the cost of acquisition of the previous owner is zero and has been acquired before April 1, 1981. For the purpose of long term capital gains, which market value would be considered?

— Aarti M

The response is framed assuming that the agricultural land was situated either in an area within the jurisdiction of a municipality having population of more than 10,000 according to the last preceding census or within 8 km from the local limits of any municipality.

Hence it qualifies as a capital asset prior to its conversion to a NA land. Therefore, the date to be considered for the NA land to be effective is not relevant from the perspective of calculating capital gains under the tax laws in India. The land has been acquired by the assessee under inheritance, accordingly the period of holding, in order to determine whether the asset is a long term/short term capital asset, will be calculated including the holding period of the previous owner.

Since the property was acquired by the previous owner before April 1, 1981, hence the capital asset will be regarded as held by the assessee for a period of more than 36 months, and the gain arising from its transfer would be considered as long term capital gains.

The land was acquired by the previous owner prior to April 1, 1981 and his cost of acquisition was zero; therefore Fair Market Value of the land as on April 1,1981 shall be considered as the cost of acquisition of the assessee. There are authorised Government valuers who can assist in calculating the value. In addition, any expenses incurred by the assessee on conversion of the agricultural land to NA land shall be treated as the cost of improvement for the purposes of calculating long term capital gain. Benefit of indexation will be available for the cost of acquisition and the cost of improvement as the asset qualifies to be a long term capital asset.

(The author is partner, KPMG.)

"Global Pulse" : ArcelorMittal - Improving outlook; Q1CY12 Result Excerpts :Edelweiss, PDF link

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In its Q1CY12 commentary, ArcelorMittal has marginally toned down its global apparent steel consumption growth estimate for 2012 to 4.0-4.5% from 4.5-5.0% estimated in Q4CY11. It, however, maintained its previous quarter view of end of de-stocking, improvement in global economic indicators and continued risk in Europe. In Q2CY12, it expects shipments to remain flat (YoY and QoQ) and profitability to improve QoQ. Adjusted EBITDA/t of its European flat steel business reported a loss of USD4 from a loss of USD22 in Q4CY11 on back of 21% QoQ increase in shipments. For Tata Steel Europe (TSE), we have assumed 4% volume growth and EBITDA/t of USD7 (for Q1CY12) from a loss of USD1 in Q4CY11. Considering ArcelorMittal numbers, TSE estimates look achievable.

Stocks in News : 11 May: Edelweiss

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Stocks in News

RBI tell exporters to sell dollars to give Re a leg up (ET)
Supply coal to all new power plants : Govt to Coal India (ET)
Warburg in talks to acquire Future Capital (ET)
Pharma Cos deny charges of irregularities in drug trails (ET)
Passenger car sales growth slows to 3.4% in April (ET)
Allahabad Bank plans to revive $500mn bond sale (ET)
Suzlon bags 39MW order in Poland (BS)
Unitech moves CLB against Uninor (BS)

Institutional Ownership Trends - A cyclical turn :Edelweiss, PDF link

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Post a gloomy Q3FY12, the sudden upsurge in global risk appetite led to massive FII inflows in Q4FY12 (at a staggering USD8.9bn). Rate cyclicals (banks and capital goods) were the biggest beneficiaries (attracting ~53% of the flows) as core defensives fell out of favour (attracting ~11.0% of the flows). It was, in fact, the best ever fiscal ending quarter in terms of FII inflows as reflected in the market rally as well. On an average price basis, we estimate FIIs to have bought into HDFC, Infosys and TCS while selling Bharti Airtel and LIC Housing Finance among others. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of USD4.4bn. Top DII buys were ONGC and PSU banks while top sells were Infosys, TCS and RIL. Outlook for flows is subdued owing to the rising global aversion in Q1FY13 and low cash levels with domestic funds.

Do comprehensive financial planning, when young :Business Line,

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I am 29 years old and recently had a child. My net salary is Rs 1 lakh a month.

I purchased a house last year with a loan of Rs 27.95 lakh. The EMI is Rs 31,000 for 15 years.

I have a monthly surplus of Rs 40, 000. Starting last year, I have started investing in PPF with Rs 40,000 as the contribution. I wish my daughter studies to become a doctor, for which I need to accumulate a sum in the next 18 years.

Also, I want to invest in MFs through SIPs and wish to buy an insurance cover for Rs 1 crore.

Do I need to take a medical insurance policy? I am also planning to build a house for my parents next year, for which I may take a loan of Rs 10 lakh. How do I save for my daughter's education?

— Kalyan Pawar

When the age is on your side , it is always better to look out for a comprehensive financial plan.

When you start saving early for retirement, due to the compounding factor, you need to save less. Since you have adequate surplus, start factoring retirement goals along with your daughter's education and marriage.

EDUCATION

A management quota seat for an MBBS degree costs over Rs 20 lakh. If inflation continues to average at 7 per cent, when she turns 18, the cost will be Rs 68 lakh. If you save Rs 6,840 a month and if your investment earns 12 per cent, you can reach the target. If household expenses are inflated at 7 per cent you should have a retirement corpus of Rs 3.4 crore. The assumption made is that you will need at least 70 per cent of your current monthly expenses post retirement. To reach there, you need to save a sum of Rs 11,000 for 348 months and it should earn 12 per cent returns. This will help you to sustain yourself till you turn 80.

INSURANCE

With another home loan, your liability itself will be Rs 40 lakh. Hence, take a term insurance for Rs 1.25 crore to protect all your goals. Since you have no medical cover, take a floater medical insurance policy for Rs 4 lakh.

INVESTMENT STRATEGY

Since you are a beginner in equity investments, start with large-cap funds such as Franklin India Bluechip, DSP BR Top 100 or HDFC Top 200. For the first year allocate 60 per cent of the savings in equity and as you gain confidence scale it to 70 per cent. Continue with your PPF investments.

I am 39 years old. I have been making SIP investments in the following mutual funds and ETFs.

DSPBR Top 100 Equity VIP for Rs 5,000 since December 2010.

I also do SIPs in Franklin India Bluechip - Rs 5,000, Rs 2,500 in IDFC Premier Equity and one gram in Gold BeES from January 2012.

The total value of investments in Reliance Equity Opportunities is Rs 59,000.

I have started an investment of Rs 5,000 in the New Pension Scheme with 50 per cent allocation to equity.

My monthly expenses are about Rs 20,000.

How much do I need to save for my retirement, if I finish working at 55. I may live till 80.

I have Rs 10 lakh in bank fixed deposits to take care of my son's educational expenses after 7 years.

I am willing to invest an additional Rs 15,000 a month.

I have three Jeevan Anand policies with sum assured of Rs 5 lakh each, Komal Jeevan policy with sum assured of Rs 2 lakh. Both mature in 2029.

I have paid a one time premium of Rs 1.5 lakh in a ULIP. I have mediclaim for Rs 3 lakh.

— V.Srinivasa Rao

If you are eager to save for your retirement through MFs, you should do so judiciously.

If your present annual household expenses are inflated at 7 per cent, at retirement you will need Rs 7 lakh.

Assume you need 70 per cent of this annually after retiring, at 55, you should have a corpus of Rs 1.1 crore.

This amount should earn inflation-adjusted return of one per cent for you to sustain till 80 years.

Invest a sum of Rs 12,500 through SIPs, and it should earn 12 per cent return.

Then, after 192 months you can reach a corpus of Rs 72 lakh.

If your investment in MF reaches the target well ahead of your retirement, shift the proceeds to debt.

If your investment in NPS delivers average returns of 9 per cent, your retirement kitty will be Rs 21 lakh.

To meet the shortfall, invest your surplus in balanced debt-oriented funds.

Since you have adequate investments in insurance, allocate higher surplus towards retirement, once your son's education is completed.

Four years before your retirement, increase your medical insurance to Rs 8 lakh.

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) 11 May

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)

Weakness below 5000 continued for another day as bullish attempts failed after a smart rally in the first half yesterday. The index opened in the green and rallied towards 5039 helped by the RBI’s measures on keeping a lid on the appreciating dollar, however the index was unable to trade above the 21 hourly EMA and resulted in a sharp down to test the 4950 mark. Trading volumes were lower and the market breadth remained in faovur of declines. A minor dip was seen in volatility tracked by the India VIX. Momentum oscillators in the immediate term are showing a deep oversold reading, suggesting a sharp pullback is expected in a session or two as Nifty approaches its cluster of support between 4950 and 4900. On the weekly chart, the index is set for its third consecutive decline. On the upside, the 200 DMA at 5106 remains the key resistance in the near-term.
Most of the sectoral indices ended the day in red. The biggest knock was taken by stocks from Metal (-1.02%), Auto (-0.89%) and Power (-0.75%) sectors. The only sector to end up on the gaining side was Oil & Gas (+0.62%) index. Broader market Mid-cap and Small-cap indices managed to marginally outperform the benchmark index with 0.06% and -0.24% respectively.


Bullish Setups: GNP, LT, BPCL
Bearish Setups: DLF, BHEL, JSP, CAIR, AL, COAL

Sales Traders Commentary : 11 May: Edelweiss

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Sales Traders Commentary

On Thursday, the Indian equity market closed flat after shedding all gains in the last couple of hours of trade due to weak European cues. Sensex and Nifty dipped marginally, shedding 0.20% each. Metal, auto, and power stocks faced selling pressure while oil&gas and consumer durables evinced buying interest.
The Sensex closed at 16420, down 60 points, while the Nifty slipped 09 points to end the day at 4966.
Major gainers were D L F (2.25%), Bharat Heavy Electricals (1.46%), Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (1.27%), Tata Consultancy Services (0.99%), Cipla (0.91%), and H D F C Bank (0.83%).
Major losers were Maruti Suzuki India (3.18%), Jindal Steel & Power (2.68%), State Bank Of India (2.32%), Hero MotoCorp (1.53%), Sterlite Industries (India) (1.50%), and Coal India (1.50%).
The Consumer Durables index jumped 0.30%. Major gainers were Rajesh Exports (1.77%), Bajaj Electricals (1.6%), Whirlpool Of India (0.6%), C.Mahendra Exports (0.58%) and Blue Star (0.03%).
The Metal index slipped 1.02%. Major losers were Jindal Steel & Power (2.68%), Coal India (1.5%), Hindalco Industries (1.34%), Sesa Goa (1.16%) and Hindustan Zinc (0.12%).
The Auto index was down 0.89%. Major losers were Apollo Tyres (3.31%), Exide Industries (2.02%), Ashok Leyland (1.96%), Hero Motocorp (1.53%) and Bajaj Auto (0.45%).
The HC index dipped 0.33%. Major losers were Aurobindo Pharma (3.25%), Lupin (3.19%), Ipca Laboratories (3.13%), Glaxo SmithKline Pharmaceuticals (0.81%) and Divis Laboratories (0.33%).
Major gainers in the mid–cap space were Hexaware Technologies (4.89%), Amara Raja Batteries (4.65%), Amtek Auto (1.59%), Arvind (1.23%) and Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (0.39%).
Major losers among small caps were A2Z Maintenance & Engineering Services (4.17%), Adhunik Metaliks (1.77%), Trident (1.47%), Aarti Industries (0.36%) and INEOS ABS (India) (0.11%).
Globally, Asian indices ended on a negative note while European indices were trading in the red

Fund Talk: Set timelines for your goals:Business Line

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If your portfolio is tilted towards mid-cap funds, it can lead to increased volatility in returns.

 I have been investing through SIPs in the following schemes for the past one year: Birla Sun Life Dividend Yield Plus Rs 8,000, IDFC Premier Equity Plan B Rs 6,000 and ICICI Pru Focussed Blue Chip Equity Rs 5,000. Please let me know if the above funds are good. I wish to remain invested for a 10-year period. Let me know if any change of funds is necessary. I find that you have not recommended Birla Sun Life Dividend Yield Plus whose performance appears to be exceptional right from its inception.

Raju

It is nice to note that you have given yourself a long time horizon of 10 years for your investments to ripen. But there seems to be no specified goal or corpus size towards which you wish to save. This is important in deciding your time and investment avenue. Another point to be noted is that you are investing as much as Rs 19,000 in SIPs. So you can add at least another couple of funds for such a sizeable monthly investment.

GOOD PICKS

The funds you hold have a fairly impressive track record over the past 3 to 4 years. But the amounts parked in each of them are on the high side. Also, your portfolio is tilted towards mid-cap funds and can lead to increased volatility in returns.

Invest Rs 3,000 each in the three funds you already hold. Add HDFC Top 200 to the portfolio and invest Rs 5,000 in it. Park the balance Rs 4,000 in Canara Robeco Equity Diversified. This portfolio will give you a blend of large-, mid- and multi-cap funds. Review your portfolio periodically to weed out underperformers and rebalance.

Coming to your query on Birla Sun Life Dividend Yield Plus, we have indeed recommended the fund many times. We may not have specifically suggested the fund in this column as each portfolio is unique and needs to be treated accordingly to incorporate the risk-returns expectations of a particular reader.

That said, we have not asked any of the readers to exit the fund if already held. The fund definitely has had a good run. But we want to be cautious on two counts: one on whether the ‘dividend yield' theme will continue to pay off going forward and, two, whether the fund's mid-cap concentration can lead to volatility in returns.

***

I am 38 years old and work in a public sector company. I want to invest Rs 10,000 in mutual funds for the long term (20 years). They are for my son's education, marriage and for my retirement. I am new to mutual funds. So I request you to suggest how many funds I can hold through SIPs. How much will I be able to accumulate if I invest this amount for 20 years?

Sriram

Your time horizon is a very long one for wealth accumulation. If you are able to invest Rs 10,000 every month for a period of 20 years, you will be able to accumulate over Rs 1 crore, if the portfolio earns 12.5 per cent per annum.

And if the funds manage to deliver 15 per cent (challenging over a 20 year period), you can even amass Rs 1.5 crore.

SEGREGATE GOALS

You have not stated the age of your son or when he would go for higher studies or marry. So it would be difficult to design a plan for the goals. But you would do well to segregate your goals according to timelines and save for each goal separately. That will mean allocating different amounts in various funds with varying timelines.

Since you are new to mutual funds, we suggest you go for less-aggressive funds with a steady track record over the long term. Invest Rs 3,000 each in HDFC Top 200 and Quantum Long-term Equity. Invest Rs 2,000 each in IDFC Premier Equity and HDFC Prudence.

Now, as and when you have a higher surplus, you can invest in HDFC Children's Gift Fund – Investment Plan. This fund is specifically meant for investment in the name of minors till they turn adults. It has an exceptional track record of delivering steady returns.

For your retirement, along with equity, you must invest in debt instruments, gold and, if possible, real estate for a balanced portfolio. Review the performance of your funds at least once a year. At least six months to a year before your target date, move your funds to safer avenues, such as bank deposits.

11 May: Business News Tablet (click on link to read article) : IFCI Financial Services Limited

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Business News Tablet (click on link to read article)

Economic Times		Business Standard
Ø  Greece sovereign debt rating could fall more: S&P Ø  RBI tells exporters to sell dollars to give re a leg up Ø  Greek instability can take mkts lower: ING Investment Mgmt Ø  RIL acquires shares in ICICI, SBI & others for long-term 'investments' Ø  Mahindra Satyam expands partnership with Alfresco Ø  CAG for new framework for revival of sick PSUs		Ø  RBI fights to arrest rupee fall Ø  High fuel cost hits NTPC profit Ø  US jobless claims fall, trade gap widens Ø  Gold declines for fourth day s dollar strengthens Ø  FIIs net buy Rs 317cr, DIIs net sell Rs 144cr Ø  Coal firms to supply fuel to power plants via MoU route
Business Line		Mint
Ø  RBI's forex move may hit small IT firms Ø  Aerospace, defence poised for good run this year too, PwC says Ø  Maharashtra's sugar output pegged at 89.5 lakh tonnes Ø  Kingfisher needs Rs 3,000 crore to stay afloat: Bank official Ø  Canara Bank Q4 net down 7.7% as expenses mount Ø  D.B. Corp's offer-for-sale sails through		Ø  UPA suspends FDI hike in insurance Ø  Cabinet approves microfinance regulation bill Ø  Volvo-Eicher Motors JV to invest Rs 1,000 cr Ø  Lupin aims more US launches as Q4 net falls Ø  GSK starts $2.6 bn tender offer for Human Genome Ø  India eyes govt deals to shift wheat surplus
Financial Express		Financial Chronicle
Ø  Fuel sellers creak under R10k-cr interest burden Ø  India to grow at 7.5% in 2012-13: UN Ø  India's trade deficit lowest in 12 months Ø  United Breweries Q4 net profit dips 84% Ø  Apollo Tyres Q4 net profit falls 18% Ø  Jubilant FoodWorks net up 52%		Ø  No pressure from US on import of oil from Iran: Govt Ø  Unitech moves court against Uninor's May 23 board meeting Ø  Escorts net profit down 75% in Jan-Mar quarter Ø  Strides gets USFDA nod for injectable Acetazolamide Ø  Car sales growth to remain tepid till festive season sets in Ø  Tata Tele loses over 2% market share in 1 year

   (Click on link to view article)

Thanks and Regards

IFIN: IFCI Financial Services Limited