21 April 2012

Next Saturday: Special session for Live trading on Saturday, April 28, 2012

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The Exchange is upgrading the capacity of Futures and Options trading system hardware and
software to the next generation system to improve processing capability and handle increased
activities in the market. Existing Trading system architecture will be revamped by using a
distributed processing concept. Towards this, the Exchange is conducting a special live trading
session on Saturday, April 28, 2012.
Market timings for special live trading session on Saturday, April 28, 2012 in Capital market
segment will be as follows:
Saturday, April 28, 2012  Time
Pre-open order entry open time 11:00 hrs
Pre-open order entry close time (with random closure in last one
minute)
11:08 hrs
Pre-open order Matching will start immediately after close of
pre-open order entry
Normal / Odd lot / Retail Debt Market Open 11:15 hrs
Normal / Odd lot / Retail Debt Market Close 12:45 hrs
Block Deal Session Open  11:15 hrs
Block Deal Session Close  11:50 hrs
Closing session start  12:55 hrs
Closing session end 13:05 hrs

Power T&D Channel checks – transmission line players better placed: IDFC Sec

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We recently met Indian, Chinese and Korean vendors in the T&D space to get a sense of ordering activity (especially
PGCIL) and competitive intensity in the T&D space. Ordering seems to be peaking, with awards from PGCIL likely to
remain largely flat in the next 2-3 years and awards from SEBs/ industry slowing. Competitive intensity aggravated in
FY12, particularly in the 765kva transformer, reactor, and substation segments. PGCIL data reveals that incumbents like
Crompton and ABB have lost market share in the transformer and reactor space as also in substations over the past
two years. Moreover, the Chinese are setting up capacity in India, while players like Transformers & Reactors India
(TRIL) are increasing capacity to enter the 765kva segment. With the overall ordering activity expected to be largely flat,
we see competitive pressure rising and utilization levels under pressure. On the other hand, competitive intensity in the
transmission-line space has reduced since February 2011 with PGCIL having rejected bids by many players for nonperformance
(17% of the bids in FY12 rejected). Consequently, we like transmission line/ tower players as they face
little competition from international companies and possess a diversified geographical mix of revenues (~50% from
international markets). So, we reiterate Outperformer on KEC (7.4x FY13E earnings), Kalpataru (7.2x FY13E earnings)
and Jyoti Structures (3.9x FY13E earnings). However, given rich valuations and risk to earnings of transformer players,
we reiterate Crompton (13.5x FY13E earnings) and ABB (52.5x CY13E earnings) as Underperformer and EMCO (21.9x
FY13E earnings) as Neutral.

4QFY12 Pharmaceutical Sector Preview: Nirmal Bang

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Another Strong Quarter Likely
We expect another strong quarter for the Indian pharmaceuticals sector led by revival in
domestic market growth, launch of products having marketing exclusivity in the US and
integration of recently acquired companies. Overall, we expect revenue/EBITDA/PAT to
grow 16%/44%/23%, respectively. After the tepid performance in the 9MFY12 period,
domestic market growth picked up in January and February 2012, at 16.5% and 18.4%,
respectively, as per the recent All India Organisation of Chemists and Druggists’
(AIOCD) AWACS data. On the other hand, despite a 4% sequential appreciation in the
rupee against the greenback, US revenues are likely to benefit from niche launches like
Lipodox (Sun Pharmaceutical Industries), Geodon (Lupin Laboratories), and Lexapro
(Cipla). Also, integration of recently acquired companies like IROM (Lupin Laboratories)
and Biochem (Cadila Healthcare) will aid revenue growth. After the recent
outperformance (BSE Healthcare Index’s 13% returns versus BSE Sensex, 12% during
4QFY12) and higher valuation, we believe 4QFY12 earnings assume further importance
and leave little room for error. We prefer a selective approach and rate Torrent
Pharmaceuticals as our top pick.
Revival in domestic growth: Following the pick-up in industry growth, we expect revival in
domestic growth for Cipla and Torrent owing to the recent restructuring undertaken by them.
On the other hand, Lupin (strong chronic focus + Eli Lilly portfolio), Cadila (Biochem
acquisition) and Sun Pharma (chronic focus) are likely to report better than industry growth. We
expect another quarter of moderate growth for Glenmark Pharmaceuticals owing to inventory
rationalisation.
Launch of products with marketing exclusivity in the US: Despite sequential appreciation
in the rupee against the US dollar during the quarter, launch of exclusive products i.e. Lipodox
(Sun Pharma), Geodon (Lupin) and Lexapro (Cipla) will drive US revenues for these
companies. However, higher price erosion in Taxotere and lack of new product approvals will
hurt revenues of Cadila. Glenmark’s performance will largely depend on the recent launch of
oral contraceptives.
Improvement in margins: Higher contribution from the domestic market and less competitive
launches in the US is expected to lead to strong improvement in margins of all companies
under coverage universe although, sequentially, we believe margins would be negatively
impacted by rupee appreciation. We expect Glenmark to report Rs700mn of forex gains on its
outstanding loans during the quarter, while Cadila is likely to reverse some of its earlier forex
losses that were routed through its balance sheet.
What to watch out for: Recent data from the AIOCD is encouraging and company
managements’ comments on the same will be closely monitored. Also, we seek clarity on tax
guidance, updates on product launches in the US, the impact of contraction in EU/emerging
market economies and the outlook on margins.

Media: 4QFY12 ratings update: Zee strengthens, Sun weakens :: Kotak Securities PDF link


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http://www.kotaksecurities.com/pdf/indiadaily/indiadaily17042012.pdf

Media
India
4QFY12 ratings update: Zee strengthens, Sun weakens.  Zee improved its ratings
performance in 4QFY12 post a weak 3QFY12 (lagged impact to 4QFY12 financials).
Additionally, market share data mask GRP gains in Hindi, Marathi and Bengali, the three
key markets for Zee. Sun faces more structural issues across its markets as competition
is increasingly active; Star’s success with KBC in Kannada and Tamil (modest) impacted
Sun somewhat. However, Sun’s proactive reaction with its own game show ‘Are You
Ready?’ found success in Tamil and Telugu, its two key markets. Retain positive view on
broadcasters led by (1) industry consolidation, (2) digitization gains and (3) reasonable
valuations. Advertising recovery is likely to be the key trigger.

Agriculture Medium-term hiccups :: Kotak Securities PDF link

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Agriculture
Medium-term hiccups.  The profitability of Indian farms has stagnated after an initial
boost due to a big increase in MSPs in 2008. Input cost inflation, led by labor, has offset
much of the gain from higher MSPs. Despite potential for long-term growth, we see
moderating medium-term growth for agri-inputs as farm incomes leave little for
investment. We see opportunity in agri-chemicals, where usage is low and in the
formulations segment, where RoCEs are high (>20%). We initiate coverage on Rallis
with a BUY rating (TP Rs160; 16.5X Sept 13 EPS). We have a SELL rating on
Coromandel (TP Rs260; 12.5X Sept 13 EPS) as valuations are expensive.

21 April: Economy News  : Kotak Securities PDF link

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Economy News
 Despite weak demand in traditional export markets such as the US and
the European Union, India’s export shipments crossed the $300-billion
official target set for the fiscal.
 India has allowed aviation companies to borrow up to $1 billion from
overseas to meet their working capital requirement for one year (ET).
Corporate News
 The government has approved Cairn India's proposal to ramp up output
from its Rajasthan block by another 25,000 barrels per day after its
partner in the block,state-owned  ONGC, endorsed the view that
increasing production would not damage the reservoir and the
infrastructure is adequate to handle about 16% jump in crude oil output
(ET).
 Kingfisher Airlines  has secured permission from the Directorate
General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) to import aviation turbine fuel (ATF)
directly. The UB group airline, which is struggling to raise funds and has
curtailed its operations to 100-120 flights each day, was the first to
demand direct import of ATF last November (BS).
 Hindalco Industries plans to raise $580 million in 10-year bonds at
9.55%. Standard Chartered Bank and HDFC Bank are likely the arrangers
to the deal (ET).
 Techno Electric has envisaged Rs 10 bn investment to raise power
generation capacity over six fold in the next five years. The company
plans to increase our generation capacity to 1,250 Mw by the end of the
12th Five Year Plan period entirely through non-conventional sources (BS)
 The Comptroller & Auditor General of India (CAG) has said the
Maharashtra government's City and Industrial Development Corporation
(Cidco) extended undue benefits of about Rs 4.6 bn to Larsen & Toubro
(L&T)  on incomplete projects on the development of an integrated
complex at the Seawood railway station in Navi Mumbai (BS).
 Mahindra Satyam  will invest $240 million globally to set up
infrastructure and support services for its clients over the next three
years (ET).
 Ranbaxy Laboratories and its parent Daiichi Sankyo has said that they
will launch Sevikar,a hypertension drug in Romania under their
collaborative business strategy. Terapia Ranbaxy, a subsidiary of Ranbaxy
in Romania will launch the drug there (ET).

BHEL:: : REDUCE TARGET PRICE: RS.269 :: Kotak Securities PDF link

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http://www.kotaksecurities.com/pdf/dmb/MorningInsight18042012.pdf


BHEL
PRICE: RS.262 RECOMMENDATION: REDUCE
TARGET  PRICE: RS.269 FY13E P/E: 10.3X
We resume coverage on BHEL with a Reduce rating and a target
price of Rs 269
 Sharp drop in Order intake in FY12 reflective of subdued investment outlook in the power sector. Revenue visibility lowest since FY06. Growth
outlook remains subdued
 Sector Outlook - Industry heading towards a prolonged period of overcapacity
 Consequently, we forecast revenues to decline by 3% in FY13 to Rs 490
bn. Revenue outlook beyond FY13 also appears to be subdued due to
likely decline in order backlog.
 At the current price, BHEL is trading at a 10.3x FY13 earnings. Based on
FY13E, the stock is trading at 6.0x EV/EBITDA multiple.  The stock is trading at a discount to its past trading range. While the valuation looks attractive, but we note that the profit growth in the medium-term is likely
to remain modest (may be even negative). This may restrict potential for
rerating.
SECTOR OUTLOOK
Industry heading towards a prolonged period of overcapacity
The ministry of power has scaled down the power capacity addition plan for 12th
plan from 100000 MW to 76000 MW. For the 13th plan, the ministry is targeting
addition of 93000 MW.
We estimate total power capacity under construction to be ~ 100000 MW out of
which BHEL's share would stand at ~ 60000 MW. Thus we believe that the ordering
for 12th plan period would be largely completed, implying weak demand scenario in
the near-term.
Recent bids quoted by domestic players in the NTPC bulk tender indicated heightened competitive intensity. Lowest bid for boilers in the 660 MW bulk tender were
lower by 14% compared to the 800 MW bulk tender.
The industry appears to be heading towards a prolonged period of overcapacity as
total manufacturing capacity would increase to around 36000-39000 MW in the next
24 months significantly higher than the annual ordering of power projects

CASTROL INDIA : ACCUMULATE TARGET PRICE: RS.570 :: Kotak Securities PDF link

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CASTROL INDIA LTD. (CIL)
PRICE: RS.538 RECOMMENDATION: ACCUMULATE
TARGET  PRICE: RS.570 CY13E P/E: 18.3X
 Castrol's net profit is exactly in line with our estimates. The Company
has reported a PAT of Rs.1.23 Bn as against our estimate of Rs.1.22 Bn.
 PAT has increased by 15.1% QoQ but was lower by 10% YoY. On a sequential basis, Castrol's bottom line has increased mainly due to 1).
Higher other income, 2). Lower staff cost, 3). Better sales mix and 4).
Marginally lower depreciation cost.
 In Q1CY12, Castrol has launched Castrol GTX Modern Engine. It has also
re-launched its flagship brands Castrol CRB plus and Castrol CRB Turbo
with "Durashield Booster" that provide up to two times engine life. The
full benefit of the same is expected to come in next few quarters, which
will improve volumes and margins.
 The company is also focusing on driving volume growth through increasing distribution reach and strengthening advocacy amongst key stakeholders. Wider distribution network will improve the sales volume of the
Company, going forward.
 Revenue has grown both in the automotive and non-automotive segment on YoY and QoQ basis. Higher net revenue growth was witnessed
in the non-automotive segment as compared to automotive segment.
Further, it must be noted that non-automotive segment enjoys higher
operating margins.
 Other Income (OI) has increased by 10.6% YoY and by 127.9% QoQ to
Rs.335 Mn. OI has increased party due to some provisions written back
and partly due to higher cash balance, along with this higher interest
rates brought in higher interest income. Also, note that other income to
PBT has increased by 3.3% YoY to 18.2% in Q1CY12.
 Its PAT margin was up by 180 bps but fell by 250 bps YoY to 15.7% in
Q1CY12.
 Blended operating margin up by 20 bps QoQ but fell by 380 bps YoY to
20.1% in Q1CY12. Going forward, we expect ease in raw material prices
and better realization due to better sales mix and expected price hike.
 The Company's management has indicated the lubricant market growth
has been slower due to the economic slowdown and inflationary pressures. This has been compounded by continuing input cost pressure and
rupee depreciation which have impacted margins.
Outlook and valuation:
 Our revised earnings estimate with EPS of Rs.23.1 CY12E and 29.3 CY13E. We
expect raw material prices to fall along with the crude oil prices. Also, management has indicated for price hike going forward. In Q1CY12, average Base oil
prices have fallen to $1300/ MT from average $1450/MT in Q4CY11. This shows
that raw material cost pressure is easing and margins can improve going forward.
 On the basis of our estimates, the stock at current market price of Rs.538 is fairly
valued at 16.1x EV/EBIDTA, 23.2x P/E and 19.7x P/BV on the basis of CY12E
earnings.
 Based on our DCF valuation model, the 12-month target price of Castrol is
Rs.570 (Rs.430 earlier) and we now recommend ACCUMULATE (earlier REDUCE) because we expect raw material prices to fall significantly. We are bullish
on Castrol's healthy balance sheet, wide product portfolio and established brand,
which will help in boosting volumes. Castrol is a zero debt company and has
cash of ~Rs.5000 Mn in its books.

Hold ACC; Target : Rs 1337 ::ICICI Securities, PDF link

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http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_ACC_Q1CY12.pdf


H i g h e r   v o l u m e s ,   r e a l i s a t i o n s   l i f t   p r o f i t …
In Q1CY12, ACC reported net sales of | 2860 crore (up 19% YoY, ~14%
QoQ) and EBITDA margin of 21.5%, which were in line with our
respective estimates of | 2964 crore and 21.8%. The increase in sales and
margins was led by higher volumes and realisations. The reported PAT of
| 155.4 crore was below our estimate on account of retrospective onetime exceptional expense due to a change in the depreciation policy for
captive power plants. However, the adjusted PAT of | 386 crore was in
line with our estimate of | 409 crore. Sales volumes and realisations
remained strong during the quarter led by a pick-up in demand from
construction activities and increase in prices. The EBITDA/tonne has
increased significantly on a QoQ basis to | 917/tonne (our estimate:
| 960/tonne) due to increased realisation. Going forward, we estimate
EBITDA/tonne of | 755 in CY12E and | 840 in CY13E against | 722/tonne
in CY11.

INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES: ACCUMULATE TARGET PRICE: RS.2599 :: Kotak Securities PDF link

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http://www.kotaksecurities.com/pdf/dmb/MorningInsight16042012.pdf


INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES LTD
PRICE: RS.2400 RECOMMENDATION: ACCUMULATE
TARGET  PRICE: RS.2599 FY13E P/E: 14.8X
 4Q results were disappointing with volumes down by 1.5% QoQ. The
revenue guidance for FY13 suggests a volume growth of about 8% -
10%, which is also below expectations.
 These numbers reflect the impact of the continuing sluggishness in the
sector, unexpected scale-downs at the quarter end and also the
company's strategy of focusing on high quality growth. The muted comments of the management on the macro scene are of concern and will
likely weigh on sentiments in near term.
 The quarter end issues are transient, in our view. The management
changes at the client end have impacted scale ups, which will likely restart in due course. Also, the scale-downs due to reduced urgency on
compliance / regulatory issues may be substituted by spend in other areas like mobility, productivity, etc. We note that, the guidance suggests
pick-up in growth in the quarters following 1Q.
 The management's focus on high quality revenues has likely had some
impact on the revenue growth. However, we believe this will hold the
company in good stead over the longer term. Infosys has a TCV (total
Contract Value) outstanding of about $350mn already in its Products,
Platforms & Solutions business, which is encouraging. It continues to
win large deals (5 in 4Q) and has also added a record 52 clients in 4Q.
 We make changes to our FY13 estimates. We have assumed the rupee at
50/USD in FY13. We expect the EPS to be Rs.162 (Rs.169 earlier) in FY13.
We accord valuations similar to the average valuations of previous lowgrowth phase (FY10).
 We remain structurally positive on the long term prospects of Infosys.
The stock is expected to remain range-bound in the short term in the
absence of any triggers and any further fall in price can be utilized to
buy the stock with a medium - to - long term perspective. ACCUMULATE
(BUY) with a PT of Rs.2599 (Rs.3034 earlier).
 Recessionary conditions in the developed economies and a sharp appreciation in the rupee beyond our estimates are the key risks to our revised
earnings estimates and recommendation.

Insurance- APEs flat in March : ShareKhan PDF link

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Insurance
APEs flat in March  
  • During March 2012, the annual premium equivalent (APE) of the life insurance industry remained flat on a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) basis but grew by 118.5% month on month (MoM) as volumes are generally higher towards the end of the fiscal. The Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) reported a robust growth of 15.1% year on year (YoY) while the same was offset by the private players whose APEs declined by 15.5% YoY. For full year FY2012, the APE of the industry declined by 3.4% due to a decline of 19% by private players while LIC registered a growth of 7.6%.
  • For FY2012, the market share of the private players grew to 34.3% levels while that of LIC declined to 65.7%. Among the private players, SBI Life Insurance Company (SBI Life)'s market share decreased to 11.4% from 13.3% in March 2011 while that of Reliance Life Insurance Company (Reliance Life) declined to 6.4% from 8.3% in March 2011. The share of Max New York Life Insurance (MNYL) grew to 6.9% as against 6.3% in March 2011.
  • In terms of APE growth for March 2012, 9 out of 18 private players posted a decline Y-o-Y with Tata AIG showed the highest contraction of 57%. Bajaj Allianz showed a growth of 32.4% YoY followed by MNYL which showing a growth of 30.4% YoY. For FY2012 the life insurance industry reported a decline of 3.4% in its APE as the new unit-linked insurance policy (ULIP) guidelines set in and insurers awaited the clearance from the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (IRDA) for launching new products. 
APE remains flat Y-o-Y but expands 119% MoM 
The APE for the life insurance sector has started recording growth on a Y-o-Y basis from September 2011 onwards as the effect of the previous year's high base wore off. However during March 2012 the APE of the industry remained flat annually but grew by 118.5% MoM as there is lumpiness towards the end of a fiscal. LIC reported a growth of 15.1% YoY whereas the private players witnessed an APE contraction of 15.5% YoY. On a month-on-month (M-o-M) basis, the APE of the private players increased by 127.2% compared with a 113.3% growth recorded by LIC.

Click here to read report: Investor's Eye

Sun Pharmaceuticals: Prandin patent case: A positive win  Reliance Sec

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Prandin patent case: A positive win
 Event: The US Supreme Court ruled in favor of Caraco, US subsidiary of Sun
Pharma, in its patent litigation against Novo Nordisk’s diabetes drug Prandin.
The court concluded that Caraco can seek correction of Novo’s inaccurate
use-codes over the drug; however, the court’s ruling on whether the correction
applies to Caraco’s labeling is still pending.
 Background: Prandin is approved by the USFDA for three specific uses, but
Novo’s original patent covered only one usage. Thus, post filing the ANDA for
gPrandin, Caraco also filed a section 8 statement which seeks approval for two
other uses not covered by the patent listed in the Orange Book. Novo then
changed its use-code for the ‘358 patent’, broadening the scope of the usecode
to cover all the three approved uses. Usually, the USFDA approves the
generic drug within the scope of the use-codes and does not determine the
scope of the same. Post favorable ruling, Caraco could get approval for the
two other uses without infringing Novo’s patent.
 About Prandin: Prandin (known as Repaglinide is used to cure diabetes) has a
market size of US$230mn in US and its patent is held by Novo Nordisk till
2018. Caraco holds an FTF status on the drug and is still awaiting the final
approval from the USFDA (post the site transfer).
 Impact: We believe that Sun Pharma can clock US$30mn in terms of revenues
from the gPrandin supply during exclusivity. While, Novo has filed its appeal
against Caraco in 1QCY2012, the final approval could take some time, leaving
options open for an “at-risk launch” for Sun Pharma.
Outlook and Valuation
We view this ruling as a benchmark for the generic companies where they can
appeal for either invalidity of the patent and/or counterclaim brand’s inaccurate use
codes. This procedure could stall the unnecessary delays caused to stop generic
companies in marketing their drugs.
We believe that the positive ruling could pave way of faster approval for gPrandin.
Along-with strong product pipeline (Uroxatral, Duloxetine, Pregablin, Eszopiclone,
Memantine) spread across FY2013E and FY2014E, such incremental opportunities
would boost the gains of the company. We remain positive on Sun Pharma, given
its steady performance, superior brand franchise in the domestic market, growth
prospects in the US market and the excellent M&A track record.
We factor high tax liability post the budget in our FY2013E numbers and introduce
FY2014E numbers in this note and roll over our target price on new projected EPS.
We recommend Accumulate on the stock with the price target of Rs650. Sun is
currently trading at 25x and 20.4x its FY2013E and FY2014E EPS respectively.
Risks to the view
 Delay in product approvals and higher than expected liability on Protonix
litigation
 Lower than expected performance from Taro

20 April: Stocks in News :Edelweiss

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Stocks in News
    Cairn gets Govt nod to increase Rajasthan output by 16%. (ET)
    P&G to build largest Indian plant in Hyderabad. (ET)
    Hindalco plans to raise INR 30 bn via bonds. (ET)
    Govt allows airlines to borrow USD 1 bn from overseas. (ET)
    CAG raps Cidco, L&T on Navi Mumbai project. (BS)
    Satyam to invest USD 240 mn in infrastructure. (BS)
    Strides arm gets US nod for cisplatin injection. (DNA)
    Coal India set to miss FSA deadline again. (DNA)
    GVK Power, Videocon seek PFC refinance. (DNA)

Hindustan Zinc Ltd :Q4FY12 First Cut :: GEPL PDF link

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  Hindustan Zinc Ltd :Q4FY12 First Cut     
  • Net sales for Hindustan Zinc Ltd for Q4FY12 stood at Rs. 31.35 bn, showing a decline of 3.2% on Y-o-Y, driven by decline in production volume as well as realisation for Zinc.
  •  EBIDTA margin for the quarter declined by 790bps to 52.9%, this was on account of more than proportionate increase in costs (16% Y-o-Y) as compared to realisation.
  • Net profit declined by 20.3% Y-o-Y.
  
  


Ambuja Cements: Realizations decline in peak construction season :: Kotak Securities PDF link


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Results
Hindustan Zinc: Good quarter; silver to drive growth in FY2013E
Ambuja Cements: Realizations decline in peak construction season
ACC: Muted price rise could weigh on 2QCY12E as well
IndusInd Bank: Another strong quarter

Sector
Insurance: Business traction improves in last month of FY2012

Strategy
Strategy: No escaping GAAR

RBI discussion paper on the Dynamic Provisions ::ICICI Securities, PDF link

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http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_DynamicProvision_EventUpdate.pdf


D y n a m i c   p r o v i s i o n   -   s ti l l   t i m e   t o   c o  m e
The RBI discussion paper on the Dynamic Provisions (DP) framework
specifies the need to make a counter cyclical buffer in the name of “stock
of DP”. This would be created during favourable economic conditions,
which can be utilised for covering higher defaults during a slowdown or
an economic downturn. The objective  is to prevent volatility in the
earnings profile of the banks owing to uncertain provisioning during
slowdown and favourable economic conditions.
On implementation, total provisions will include only dynamic provision
(DP) and specific provision (SP) instead of the currently existing specific,
floating and general provisions. Further, on implementation of the policy
the provisioning requirements will increase considerably.
Banks that have maintained higher provisions mainly the specific
provisioning and have lower credit default history will be impacted the
least. Despite the short-term hitch such a frame work augurs well for the
banking sector in the long term as it will smoothen the earnings profile.
We have tried to calculate the impact of DP on FY13E RoA. The impact on
RoA shall be viewed as just an indicator and the quantum of impact on
RoA may not be reliable as the exact asset mix may be different and all
parameters are not yet clear. Some banks may use their own parameters
i.e. historical data, credit profile and model to calculate DP while others
may use the RBI guidelines. However, we do not expect the norm to be
implemented soon and it may spill over to FY14.
For banks under our coverage, FY13E RoAs may be impacted by 10 - 40
bps depending on their asset mix and existing provisioning policy.
However, the actual impact may be slightly lower than our calculation as
lack of data remains a constraint. If the DP norms are implemented in the
current form, it will be negative for the banking sector in the initial year of
implementation as it impacts RoA negatively. This can have a bearing on
P/ABV multiples that banks are currently trading at. However, on the
positive side, it will reduce the volatility in earnings.

Buy Infosys; Target :Rs 2,720 ::ICICI Securities, PDF link

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http://www.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_Infosys_Q4FY12.pdf


I n f y   s e t s   f l o o r   f o r   F Y 1 3 E   g r o w t h …
Infosys reported its Q4 revenue/earnings below its guidance and our
estimates. US dollar revenues declined 1.9% QoQ vs. our 0.5% QoQ
growth estimate while rupees revenues declined 4.8% QoQ vs. our 1.3%
decline estimate. That said, FY13E US$ revenue growth (8-10%) and EPS
guidance (| 158.8 –161.4, | 156 our estimate) was a revelation. Rationale
for the soft Q4FY12 and FY13E guidance include delay in anticipated
project ramp-ups, ramp-downs for select US financial services customers
and subdued insurance vertical performance coupled with uncertainty
over CY12E IT budget spending patterns. Albeit, Infosys still hired 4,727
laterals and 5,949 freshers (both gross) in Q4FY12. Noticeably, Q4 lateral
additions were the largest for any Q4 since Q1FY04 and second highest
among all quarters since Q1FY04 (the highest being 5,212 in Q3FY11). We
believe Infosys likely set the floor for FY13E  growth by guiding
lower, relative to Street, with an opportunity for upward revision in
subsequent  quarters. We  introduce FY14E;  modestly raise FY13E
revenue/EPS estimate to |38,427 crore/| 159.6 vs. | 37,763 crore/| 156
earlier and consensus at | 39,672 crore/| 169 & maintain our BUY rating.

IndusInd Bank- Firing on all cylinders :Prabhudas Lilladher,

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IndusInd reported better‐than‐expected PAT of Rs2.23bn (up 30% YoY) led by a
beat in loan growth and stronger‐than‐expected fee income momentum. Apart
from improving profitability and strong growth, IIB continues to deliver on all its
cycle II growth strategies, and like HDFCB, is well placed to deliver strong PAT
growth in FY13. Current valuations at 3.1x FY13 book are not cheap but consistent
and all round performance inspires confidence. Hence, we maintain our ‘BUY’
rating, with a revised PT of Rs400/share.
ô€‚„ Surprise in top‐line performance: NII was ~4% higher-than-expected due to
strong sequential loan growth (8% QoQ) and surprise in margins, with ~5bps
accretion QoQ v/s a marginal contraction expected. Fee income growth has
been exceptionally strong at ~60% YoY growth in Q4FY12, with growth across all
segments. With margins expected to improve in FY13, we believe IIB will be able
to sustain its top-line growth momentum in FY13.
􀂄 Delivering on all its cycle II growth drivers: After the 08-11 growth phase,
management had laid out it’s cycle II growth drivers and we continue to see
management delivering on most counts including (1) improving liability
franchise with ~2.5% SA accretion post SA re-regulation (2) filling up the product
gap (LAP/credit cards) on the retail side and most importantly (3) gaining
significant fee income traction in personal distribution and IB business.
􀂄 Strong PAT growth to sustain in FY13: With a large fixed rate asset base, we
expect margins to improve by ~15-20bps in FY13 and drive profitability
improvement. We increase FY13/14 estimates by ~7-8% on higher growth and
margins and with credit costs at ~75bps for FY13, there could be further upsides.
ô€‚„ Maintain ‘BUY’, with a PT of Rs400/share: Current valuations at 3.1x FY13 book
are not cheap but high loan growth, strong fee income momentum and very
limited asset quality risk inspire confidence. We maintain our positive view on
IIB.

Issue Details : TBZ IPO

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Issue Details : TBZ IPO
Anchor Book Opens and closes : Monday, April 23, 2012
Issue opens for all categories:  Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Issue Close for all categories: Thursday, April 26, 2012
Issue size: Total Issue of Rs. 2.00 bn to Rs 2.10 bn
Price Band: Rs. 120 to Rs. 126 per equity share
Application lot size:  45 shares
Total # of shares issued at the above price band: 16,666,667
Dilution at the above price band: 25%
Max no of Anchor Shares: 2,499,999 shares
QIBs portion: Not more than 8,333,332 shares (of which 291,667 shares i.e. 5% of QIB portion is available for allocation on a proportionate basis to Mutual Funds only and the remainder i.e. 5,541,666 shares is available for allocation on a proportionate basis to all QIBs, including Mutual Funds)
Post issue number of shares: 66,666,667 shares 
Post Money Valuation at the above price band: Rs. 8.0 bn (USD 154 mn) at Rs. 120 / Rs. 8.4 bn (USD 162 mn) at Rs. 126
BRLMs: IDFC Capital and Avendus Capital
Registrar : Karvy Computershare
Maximum number of shares that can be applied for by MUTUAL FUNDS 6,666,660 shares (10% of Post Issue Share Capital, as adjusted for the lot size)
Maximum number of shares that can be applied for by each FII & sub account: 6,666,660 shares (10% of Post Issue Share Capital, as adjusted for the lot size)
Maximum number of shares that can be applied by FII investing on behalf of its sub account which is a foreign corporate or an individual3,333,330 shares (5% of Post Issue Shares, adjusted to lot size)
Maximum number of shares that can be applied for by QIBs OTHER than MUTUAL FUNDS, Insurance co’s & FIIs as mentioned above: Total issue of 16,666,650 shares, as adjusted for the lot size (but subject to investment limits prescribed for them by applicable laws and their internal regulations)
Please Note : FVCIs, multilateral and bilateral financial institutions and QFIs are not permitted to participate in this Issue. No Non-Resident investor/ entity other than SEBI registered FIIs and Eligible NRIs can participate in this Issue. 

Monetary Policy Update (April 2012) ::ICICI Securities, PDF link

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http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_RBIActions_April2012.pdf


Positive surprise of 50 bps but future cuts?
Key policy statements….
ƒ The RBI surprised us with a repo rate cut of 50 bps to 8%. However,
the central bank indicated that future rate cuts may be limited due to
upside risks in inflation
ƒ The central bank kept the CRR unchanged 4.75%
ƒ The marginal standing facility (MSF) borrowing limit was raised by
100 bps to 2% of NDTL while the MSF rate was changed to 9.0%
ƒ GDP growth target for FY13 was  projected at 7.3%. Also, FY12
growth is expected to be 7%
ƒ M3 growth for FY13 is projected at 15% whereas it has fallen to 13%
as on March 2012
ƒ The path of inflation in FY13 could remain sticky around current
levels due to high oil prices, large suppressed inflation, exchange
rate pass-through, impact of freight and tax hikes, wage pressure
and structural impediments to supply response. Inflation is expected
to be 6.5% for FY13
ƒ Growth in non-food credit of SCBs is projected at 17%. FY12 credit
growth of 19.3% came way above RBI’s projection of 16%, thanks to
last 20 days lending in March 2012.
ƒ Aggregate deposits of SCBs are projected to grow by 16 %.
Developmental steps announced…
ƒ Banks cannot levy foreclosure charges/pre-payment penalties on
home loans on a floating interest rate basis
ƒ The final guidelines on the implementation of Basel III capital
regulations will be issued by end-April 2012
ƒ The final guidelines on liquidity risk management and Basel III
framework on liquidity standards will be issued by end-May 2012,
after taking into account the suggestions/ feedback received
ƒ To check finance to NBFCs predominantly engaged in lending
against gold via reduction of their regulatory exposure ceiling in a
single  NBFC,  with  gold  loans  to  the  extent  of  50%  or  more  of  its
total financial assets, from the existing 10% to 7.5% of bank’s capital
funds
ƒ To issue final guidelines on securitisation by end-April 2012
ƒ To issue guidelines on licensing for setting up new urban
cooperative banks (UCBs) by end-June 2012. Also, in order to
facilitate enhanced priority sector lending, the RBI has decided to
permit UCBs to utilise the additional limit of 5% of their total assets
for granting housing loans up to | 25 lakh, which is covered under
the priority sector

SC accepts CEC recommendations ::ICICI Securities, PDF link

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http://www.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_MetalsMining_EventUpdate.pdf


K a r n a t a k a   i n c h e s   c l o s e r   t o   r e s t a r t  mi n i n g…
The Supreme Court (SC) has accepted most of the recommendations of
the Central Empowered Committee (CEC). However, the apex court has
placed certain conditions before mining activity can be resumed. The SC
has directed the reclamation & rehabilitation (R&R) activity to start
immediately under the supervision of the CEC. The mines are likely to
resume production only when  the R&R activity undertaken by
respective miners is complete and approved by a certified authority. We
expect mining activity for mines classified in “A” category to restart in
three to five months. The SC has also accepted the recommendations of
the CEC to cap mining with a production ceiling of 25 million tonnes
(MT) for Bellary and 5 MT for Chitradurga and Tumkur together.
Key highlights
The implementation of R&R Plans for  all three categories shall start
immediately. The preparation, implementation and monitoring of the R&R
Plan will be under the supervision of the CEC.
The sale of iron ore would continue in the e-auction route.
In next week’s April 20, 2012 hearing, the CEC with regard to stockyard is
also likely throw some light on the start of preparatory work for category
“A” mines.
V i ew
This is a positive development for steel plants operating in Karnataka. This
move will lead  to improved availability of iron ore in the state. On the
back of improvement in iron ore availability the JSW Steel plant is likely
to operate at higher capacity utilisation level, going forward. However,
prices of iron ore are expected to stay at elevated levels. We await any
further details from the Supreme Court. The next hearing is scheduled on
April 20, 2012. We are keeping the estimates and target price for both
JSW Steel and Sesa Goa unchanged. We have a  HOLD rating on both
stocks with a target prices of | 682 for JSW Steel and | 200 for Sesa Goa.

Hindustan Zinc Buy Target Price: Rs151 : Centrum

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Hindustan Zinc

Buy
Target Price: Rs151
CMP: Rs126
Upside: 19.9%
Silver lining in operations remains, maintain buy
Hindustan Zinc (HZL) reported better-than-expected Q4FY12 results with net sales of Rs30.9bn, up by 12.6% QoQ and PAT of Rs14.1bn, up by 10.9%QoQ. EBITDA stood at ~Rs16.6bn with margin at 53.6% (against our expectation of 52.7%), 250bps higher QoQ as new capacities in lead and silver stabilised and operational costs began to rationalise. We expect robust lead and silver volumes ahead as stabilisation process of new capacities is almost complete and maintain our positive stance on the stock on account of sound operations and attractive valuations. We factor in 50% increase in royalty from FY14E and revise our FY14E estimates lower by ~7%. Reiterate Buy with a revised lower target price of Rs151.
m  Lead and silver volumes increase more than expected: Lead and silver sales went up sequentially by ~30% and ~56% respectively as both the lead smelter and silver refinery stabilisations were faster than our expectations. Zinc volumes remained subdued with closure of high cost Vizag smelter and due to falling grade in Rampura Agucha zinc mine.
m  Margin shows sequential improvement: EBITDA improved by ~18% QoQ to Rs16.6bn and EBITDA margin stood at 53.6% (lower than our estimate of 52.7%) as operational costs were rationalized on account of stabilization of new capacities in lead and silver. Also, closure of high cost Vizag smelter and improvement in LME realizations helped in margin improvement QoQ.
m  Conference call highlights: New lead smelter of 100ktpa operated at ~80% capacity utilization in Q4FY12 and HZL expects 90% utilization in FY13E but would require some concentrate purchase from outside. Silver refinery of 350 tpa is fully commissioned and higher silver production is expected as SK mine ramps up to 2 mtpa. Expansion at Kayar mine is progressing well and mining at Rampura Agucha is expected to go underground by Q4FY14E with cost of production at ~US$300-310/tonne. The company closed its Vizag smelter and plans to make up for its ~30000 tpa zinc capacity from its Rajasthan smelters going forward. For FY13E, zinc production is expected to remain flat whereas lead and silver integrated production is expected at ~110 lakh tonnes and 350 tonnes respectively. Total lead and silver production expected is ~150 lakh tonnes and 400 tonnes respectively in FY13E.  Dividends at 20% of PAT are expected going forward.
m  Earnings revised downwards for FY14E on royalty increase: We revise our earnings estimate for FY14E as we factor in ~50% increase (against proposed 100% increase in mining bill) in royalty on zinc, lead and silver from FY14E. We revise our zinc volume estimates lower for FY13E/14E and remain conservative on our LME zinc and lead realization assumptions but see upside risk to the same going forward as demand starts to improve globally. Our EBITDA and PAT for FY14E are revised downwards by ~8% and ~7% respectively. We have revised FY13E estimates upwards due to higher silver and lead volumes and cost savings on account of closure of Vizag smelter.
m  Valuations remain attractive, Reiterate Buy: We continue to like the stock due to expected strong volume growth in lead and silver, lower overall cost proposition, improvement in LME zinc and lead prices going forward and attractive valuations with favorable risk-reward. We continue to value the stock at 5x FY14E EV/EBITDA. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a revised target price of Rs 151.

Thanks & Regards, 

-- 

Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri, IPO -details you need


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Issue Terms
 
Issue price / Floor Price (Rs)
120-126
Application per share (Rs)
120.00
Minimum investment amount (Rs)
5,400.00
Minimum bid (no of shares)
45 shares and in multiples of 45 thereafter
Maximum Shares for Retail
1665-1575


Ambuja Cements Ltd :Q1CY12 First Cut :: GEPL PDF link

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Ambuja Cements Ltd :Q1CY12 First Cut
  • Net sales for Q1CY12 grew by 19.7% on Y-o-Y basis to Rs 26,609 mn. This was mainly driven by higher volumes and better realisation.
  • EBIDTA Margins for Q1CY12 stood at 29%, showing an increase of 80 bps on Y-o-Y basis and 995 bps on Q-o-Q basis.
  • Net profit for Q1CY12 declined by 23.4% on Y-o-Y basis to Rs 3,122 mn, the decline was attributable to Change in depreciation method for fixed assets pertaining to captive power plant from SLM (straight line) method to Written down value method (WDV). As a result of this company has recognized an additional depreciation of Rs 2,890.8 mn. Amount relating to earlier years has been disclosed as exceptional item amounting to Rs 2,791.3 mn.
  • The PAT would have been higher by Rs 1952.9 mn if the cmpany continued to use earlier method of depreciation.
  
  

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) :20 April

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
    Indian markets traded higher for the fourth consecutive session as the Nifty ended with gains 0.61% in a narrow range session. After a positive start the index dipped below 5300 briefly and immediately pulled back higher to close near the high of the day. With that it has confirmed a breakout above the ‘falling wedge’ pattern after a re-test of the breakout level. Trading volumes were low and the market breadth was neutral, however volatility declined further, tracked by the India VIX. The consolidation structure of the past two months has resolved higher and the index should exhibit a rally towards the start of the pattern i.e. at 5630. Short-term momentum oscillators have rolled bullish and are in sync with the bullish intermediate oscillator setups. The index is expected to close the week on a positive note and will form a ‘bullish outside bar’ following previous weeks’ negative trend. On the downside 5200/5180 has emerged an important support with the index exhibiting rallies thereof. Traders can look to initiate longs with stop below 5180, for a target of 5630 and can even add positions on a close above 5340.
    Among the key sectoral movers for the day were Autos (+2.05%), Healthcare (+1.18%) and FMCG (+0.96%) on the gainers list. The prominent losers of the day were Cap Goods (-0.89%), Power (-0.78%) and Oil & Gas (-0.59%). The broader market indices were underperformers with Mid-cap index and Small-cap index gaining 0.25% and 0.27% respectively.

    Bullish Setups: CNXBANK, GNP, COAL, JSTL, PWGR
    Bearish Setups: DLF, IDEA, BHEL, BPCL

Buy Sun Pharmaceutical Industries -Prandin ruling to set good precedent for generics : ShareKhan PDF link

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Sun Pharmaceutical Industries
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs631
Current market price: Rs598
Prandin ruling to set good precedent for generics
Key points
  • Sun Pharma gets favourable ruling on Prandin: The US Supreme Court unanimously ruled in favour of generic player, Caraco Pharmaceuticals (Caraco; US subsidiary of Sun Pharmaceuticals [Sun Pharma]), which can file a lawsuit against Novo Nordisk for throwing up roadblocks that prevented the generic drugmaker from seeking the US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA)'s approval for generic Prandin. The ruling by the US Supreme Court on Prandin (a brand of Novo Nordisk) is set to establish a precedent for the generic players who are being tactically barred by innovators through overloaded patent description. This is a first-of-its-kind case where generic players have been allowed to sue a brand owner for broad-basing the patent description. The ruling would pave the way for the generic players to sue brand owners or patent holders, if the latter are not accurate in their description for which they have been granted patent. Although Caraco has yet to get the USFDA's approval for this product, circumstances seem to be in favour of Caraco and Sun Pharma. Prandin is indicated for type-II diabetes and has annual sales of $230 million. 
  • Broad basing of patents not allowed: Through this ruling, patent owners are told to limit the description and be accurate about the indications for which patent protection is being sought. It has been the practice for brand owners (patent holders) to first broad base the description of a patent to cover multiple uses of drugs that could be produced through a combination of one or more drugs and then prevent generic players that attempt to get approval for even products remotely related to the patented products. Ideally, these combinations of drugs which are indicated for the same or different diseases should be patented separately. The broad-basing of description in a patent prevents the generic players from getting the approval for drugs that combine even one element of the patented products. The ruling says that the generic players can counter-claim a patent holder for broad-basing patent description which could prevent the generic players from getting the approval for combination drugs. 
  • Facts of the case: There were three uses approved for Prandin: (a) monotherapy; (b) in combination with metformin; and (c) in combination with thiazolidinediones. But the only patent listed for Prandin in the Orange Book (which contains patent information for the USFDA) was monotherapy in combination with metformin. Caraco sought the USFDA's approval under a provision of the Hatch-Waxman Act that allows generic drugmakers to market a drug for uses not covered by patents held by branded drugmakers. (In such circumstances, a generic drugmaker is granted what is known as a carve-out label for its medicine.) However, Novo Nordisk submitted a new description of its patent which, Caraco argued, was overly broad and, therefore, amounted to patent misuse. The US Supreme Court sided with Caraco and allowed the latter to sue Novo Nordisk for broad-basing patent description. 
  • Caraco has to wait longer for launch of this product: Caraco has yet to get the approval for the abbreviated new drug application (ANDA) for this product from the USFDA. Also, a separate appeal concerning the validity of patents on Prandin is pending before the court of appeals for Federal Circuit after a lower court ruled in favour of Caraco. Therefore, Caraco has to wait longer to launch this product. 
  • We are not factoring potential revenue from Prandin at this stage: Despite the positive court ruling in Prandim, we are not factoring the potential upside from this product in our revenue model, mainly due to the uncertainty over the timing of the approval and launch. 
  • We maintain Buy on Sun Pharma: The combination of Sun Pharma and Taro Pharma offers an excellent business model for Sun Pharma, as was reflected in the Q9FY2012 performance of Sun Pharma (net profit growth of 25% year on year [YoY]). Sun Pharma along with Taro Pharma has one of the richest pipelines of generic products which will drive its US revenues. We expect a 20% revenue compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over FY2011-14. However, the profits would be affected during FY2013 and FY2014 due to a higher tax incidence. We expect a 16% profit CAGR over FY2011-14.
    The stock is currently trading at 25.2x and 21.8x FY2013E and FY2014E earnings respectively. Though there is a limited upside from the current market price, but we maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs631, which is 23x FY2014E EPS. We will re-visit the price target after the announcement of the Q4FY2012 results of the company.

Click here to read report: Investor's Eye

Infotech Enterprises - conference call transcript :PDF link courtesy Edelweiss

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Dear Sir/Madam,
Please find enclosed the transcript of the conference call with Infotech Enterprises held on 18th April, 2012.