03 April 2012

3/4/12: Categories Turnover (BSE) (Rs. crore) Clients NRI Proprietary Trade Data

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Categories Turnover (BSE)
(Rs. crore)
ClientsNRIProprietary
Trade DateBuySalesNetBuySalesNetBuySalesNet
3/4/121,468.621,488.50-19.872.410.471.94517.51515.651.85
2/4/121,269.401,271.29-1.895.530.245.29497.45471.8725.59
30/3/121,445.011,563.08-118.070.950.580.38509.15451.6757.49
Apr , 122,738.022,759.78-21.767.950.717.231,014.96987.5227.44
Since 1/1/12121,611.81123,485.94-1,874.1384.0582.881.1743,491.9242,227.021,264.90

  Disclaimer:
  • DII and FII turnover is consolidated information of BSE and NSE.
  • BSE data is compiled on the basis of marking of 'client type' while executing orders on BOLT-TWS in equity segment.
  • NSE Data has been compiled on the basis of trading codes entered by the trading members at the time of order entry and corresponding client category classification provided by the trading members as part of unique client code details upload.
  • NRI - Non Resident Indians
  • FII - Foreign Institutional Investors
  • DII -Domestic Institutional Investors (Includes Bank, DFIs, Insurance, New Pension Scheme and MF).

3 April: NBCC, MT Educare IPO: Grey market premium

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Company Name
Offer Price (Rs)
Expected Listing Price Premium



National Buildings Construction Corporation (NBCC)
Rs 90/- to Rs 106/-
(retail 5% discount)
None. Expected to list at IPO price. Retail may expect 5% as they get discount.
MT EDUCARE
Rs.74 to Rs.80
Discount


3/4/12: DII trading activity on BSE and NSE on Capital Market

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DII trading activity on BSE and NSE on Capital Market Segment.
DII trading activity on BSE and NSE on Capital Market Segment(In Rs.Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSale ValueNet Value
DII3/4/121,096.77896.49200.28


  • DII trading data across BSE and NSE collated on the basis of trades executed today by Banks, DFIs,Insurance and MFs on BSE and NSE.
  • This trade data is provisional and subject to change, inter-alia, on account of custodial confirmation process, modifications etc.

3/4/12: FII trading activity on BSE and NSE on Capital Market

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FII trading activity on BSE and NSE on Capital Market Segment

FII trading activity on BSE and NSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSale ValueNet Value
FII3/4/121,995.031,662.56332.47

  Disclaimer:
  • FII trading data across BSE and NSE collated on the basis of trades executed today by FIIs on BSE and NSE.
  • This trade data is provisional and subject to change, inter-alia, on account of custodial confirmation process, modifications etc. 

Jagran Prakashan Reco: ACCUMULATE -Target Price: Rs 116 :Emkay PDF link

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Jagran Prakashan
Reco: ACCUMULATE
CMP: Rs 99
Target Price: Rs 116
NaiDuniya to strengthen MP & Chhattisgarh portfolio
·      Jagran acquires Suvi Info Management Pvt. Ltd which owns NaiDunia. The deal is valued at Rs2.25bn. Net payout for Jagran would be ~Rs1.5bn as it would get tax benefit of ~Rs750mn (in FY13E) on accumulated losses of Rs2.5bn   
·      NaiDunia had Rs1.0bn revenue and EBITDA loss of Rs250mn in FY11. JPL confident to reduce losses by Rs80-90mn from year one, led by cost rationalization 
·      This acquisition would be value accretive in the long-term, given the size of ad market, cost synergies and cost rationalization efforts by Jagran management 
·      We believe the acquisition was much needed to expand in MP& Chhattisgarh markets for Jagran. At EV of Rs2.25bn NaiDuniya is valued at 2.25x EV/sales, at par with Jagran’s EV/sales of FY12E


Click here to read report: Event Update

Jagran Prakashan Acquisition of Nai Dunia ::Centrum

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Jagran Prakashan

Acquisition of Nai Dunia
Jagran Prakashan (JPL) has acquired Suvi Info Management (Indore) Pvt Ltd which is the holding company of Nai Dunia Media engaged in publishing Nai Dunia daily in MP and Chhattisgarh markets. The acquisition is at an EV valuation of Rs2.25bn (Rs1.5bn net of tax). We believe this acquisition will help JPL enter the second biggest Hindi market and position itself to be #2 player in that market. We expect JPL to turn around the business and make it EBIDTA positive within the first year of operation. Maintain BUY.
m  Entry into MP and Chhattisgarh market: With this acquisition, JPL will get access to the lucrative Madhya Pradesh (Rs4.5bn ad market) & Chhattisgarh (Rs1bn ad market) markets where readership penetration is less than 15% even though the literacy rate is above 70%.
m  Aiming to be a strong #2 player: Nai Dunia has recently become #3 player in the MP market behind Dainik Bhaskar and Patrika. It has an AIR of 1.52mn compared to 1.6mn for Patrika and 3.8mn for Dainik Bhaskar. The company currently has a circulation of 5lac copies. In the state of MP it has 5 editions in Indore, Bhopal, Jabalpur, Gwalior and Ujjain. In Chhattisgarh it has 2 editions in Raipur and Bilaspur. Nai Dunia has a share of 22% in readership and 15% in ad revenue in these two markets. Company plans to steadily increase its circulation and become a strong #2 player in these states.
m  Strong synergies to emerge: We believe there are strong synergies between the existing operations of JPL and these two states. MP is the second biggest Hindi ad market and shares the border with UP. With this JPL would have a strong presence in all Hindi speaking states.  JPL plans to reduce costs to the tune of Rs90mn immediately with saving of Rs40mn in newsprint procurement, Rs20mn by sharing office space, Rs30mn by employee rationalization. 
m  Nai Duniya to be operating positive in 1st year: Nai Dunia currently has revenues of ~Rs1.05bn while it is making an operating loss of ~Rs0.25bn with PAT loss of ~Rs0.32bn. Currently, advertisement revenue for the company is Rs0.75bn, circulation revenue Rs0.25bn while remaining is from job works. JPL plans to make the company operating positive within 1st year by reducing cost to the tune of Rs100mn while increasing national advertisement pie from current 20-25% to 40% similar to Dainik Bhaskar.
m  Deal valued at EV of Rs2.25bn: JPL has acquired the company at an EV of Rs2.25bn and will be fully funded from internal accruals. The company has debt of Rs200mn and will have tax benefit of ~Rs0.75bn. JPL plans to merge this company with itself in FY13 for utilizing the tax benefits.
m  Valuations: JPL is currently valued at 12.6x FY13E EPS of Rs7.95. We currently have a BUY rating on the stock with a target price of Rs135. We will change our estimates once we get the financials and data of the acquired company from the management. 

Thanks & Regards, 

Derivatives Report - 03.04.2012 - Angel Broking - PDF link

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Market Outlook - 03.04.2012 - Angel Broking - PDF link

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Market Summary - 03.04.2012 - Angel Broking - PDF link

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Technical Report - 03.04.2012 - Angel Broking - PDF link

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CNBC-CRISIL Awards - HDFC is Best Equity, Best Fund House, Birla Best Debt Fund house

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HDFC Mutual Fund bagged the Best Fund House and Best Equity Fund House awards while Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund walked away with the Best Debt Fund House of The Year Award. Reliance Gold Savings Fund, which allows investors to invest through SIP without a demat account, won the Most Innovative Fund Of The Year Award.

The winners

Large Cap Equity Funds 
Fidelity Equity Fund
Diversified Equity Funds 
Mirae Asset India Opportunies Fund
Small and Mid Cap Equity Funds 
HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund
Equity Linked Savings Schemes 
Fidelity Tax Advantage Fund
Index Funds 
Kotak Sensex ETF

Balanced Funds 
HDFC Balanced Fund
Income Funds 
UTI Bond Fund
Monthly Income Plans 
HDFC Monthly Income Plan

Income Funds
Short Term  JPMorgan India Short Term
Ultra Short Term Fund
Retail  HDFC  Cash  Management
Liquid Funds
Retail  Principal Cash Management

Q4FY12 Results Preview: Beginning of sales growth slowdown cycle ::Emkay PDF link

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Q4FY12 Results Preview: Beginning of sales growth slowdown cycle
(April 02, 2012)

Results Preview
n         Earning expectation for Q4FY12E for Emkay Universe indicate continued moderation, with APAT growth of 1.6%YoY (ex financials & oil). This will be a marked deceleration from the actual 5.6%YoY in Q3FY12
n         Contrasting to previous quarters, Q4FY12 is likely to show sharp deceleration in sales growth. For our Universe sales growth is expected to decline to 15.9%YoY vs 20% in Q3FY12
n         Expected moderation in sales and APAT growth is likely to reflect in sustained decline in EBIDTA margin for our Universe, which is expected to contract nearly 100bp YoY at 19.3%. While there are clear signs of eroding pricing power upside risks to cost could imply downside surprise to earnings growth
n         The Small Cap Emkay Universe seems to be impacted more adversely with expected sales and APAT growth at 6.6%YoY and -15.4%YoY respectively. Likewise, Emkay Universe ex-Top 5 companies is expected to experience moderate sales growth at 11.4% YoY and APAT contraction of 9.2%YoY 
n         Almost 50% of our coverage companies are expected to show YoY contraction in APAT during Q3. But there are also a good 26% who are likely to exhibit 30%+ expansion
% yoy growth
Sales
EBIDTA
APAT
Q3FY12A
Q4FY12E
Q3FY12A
Q4FY12E
Q3FY12A
Q4FY12E
Emkay Universe
19.8%
15.9%
12.5%
10.5%
5.2%
1.6%
Emkay Large Cap
20.0%
16.1%
12.5%
9.9%
7.0%
1.5%
Emkay Mid Cap
19.7%
15.5%
12.5%
15.3%
-4.6%
5.1%
Emkay Small Cap
16.9%
6.6%
10.8%
9.8%
-8.0%
-15.4%
Source: Company, Emkay Research
n         Outside of Financial and Oil sectors, robust APAT expansion is expected for Autos (30% YoY) & Auto ancillaries (29%), Consumers (25%), IT (20%) and Pharma (72%).  Stress is likely to be visible markedly in Engineering and Cap goods (-1% YoY), Metals & Mining (-43%) and Telecom (-7%)
n         For Consumer Goods space APAT growth will likely be contributed by price increases in recent months but we think volume growth may disappoint. Conversely the Engineering & Capital goods are expected to exhibit the impact of macro slowdown in the form of longer execution cycles, unfavorable revenue mix and cost pressure 
n         In line with the Q3 guidance, IT services sector is likely to see subdued sales growth in Q4FY12 with Tier I IT companies estimated to show modest 1.1-3.2% QoQ US$ revenue growth
n         Our automobile universe is expected to show sales growth of 29% driven by volumes and pricing action. But large portion of the jump is expected form Tata Motors. Ex-TML subs, sales growth is expected to be much weaker at 15%. Similarly, while the EBIDTA is expected to rise 16%, ex-TML subs it is likely to remain muted at 4%
n         Telecom sector is expected to see positive spill over from tariff hike and higher contribution from non-voice segment
n         Key things to watch for:  Management concerns are likely to around (a) High interest rates, (b) Lack of infrastructure (c) Policy logjam (d) Input cost pressures & uncertainty in commodity prices, (e) weakening demand and (f)  continued volatility in rupee. Hence, management guidance in the backdrop of the above uncertainties and the Budget announcement, on demand outlook, future price actions and external demand will be critical
     * Note: ex Banks & FS, FS - Others and Oil & Gas # Nos in bracket are % yoy change in PAT
Q4FY12 Strong Results
Large Caps
Mid Caps
Small Caps
Adani Power
Apollo Tyres
Unichem Labs
Allahabad Bank
CESC

BPCL
Chambal Fertilisers

Cipla
Dewan Housing

Dr. Reddy's Lab
India Cements

HPCL
Jubilant FoodWorks

Indian Oil
KSK Energy

Jaiprakash Power Ventures
Manappuram General Finance

Marico
Mindtree

Ranbaxy Labs
South Indian bank

Shree Cements
Sterlite Tech

State Bank of India
Torrent Pharma

Sun Pharma


Tata Chemicals


Tata Motors


Tech Mahindra


Titan Industries


Q3FY12 Weak Results
Large Caps
Mid Caps
Small Caps
Grasim Industries
Blue Star
Godawari Power
Hindalco
IRB Infrastructure
Gujarat Industries Power
JSW Energy
IVRCL
HBL Power Systems
JSW Steel
Prestige Estates
JK Paper
Sesa Goa
Punj Lloyd
Tamilnadu Newsprint
Sterlite Industries
Sintex Industries

Tata Steel


Possible Surprises – Positives
Name of the company
EPS (Rs)
yoy gr (%)
Reason
Ashok Leyland
1.1
-4.8
Margins to expansion led by higher production from Pantanagar and operating leverage
Bhushan Steel
13.6
-0.1
Higher volume and realizations; Progress in Orissa phase III expansion and any guidance on iron ore availability key drivers
Chambal Fertilisers
3.5
249
Higher realizations on IPP linked production. Strong revenue growth from fertilizer and trading revenues to increase
Cipla
2.6
-2.3
Commencement of Lexapro formulation to Teva this quarter which is estimated to contribute USD60mn in revenues. Growth in domestic formulations is expected to be higher at 19% YoY
Godrej Consumer
5.2
17.7
(1) strong traction in domestic home care segment and (2) continued momentum in soaps and hair color business. International business to report strong constant currency growth and also gain from translation benefit.
Greaves Cotton
1.6
-4.1
Expect improvement after a dismal Q3FY12, (1) Healthy revenue growth from Engines, ramp-up in sales to Tata Motors and Infrastructure
GSK Consumer
27.1
2.9
Gain from a blend of volume-led growth, price-led growth and mix-led growth
Hero MotoCorp
34.3
36.5
Margins to benefit from favorable forex, moderation in metal prices and operating leverage benefits.
Marico
1.4
300
Robust growth in Parachute and Saffola and International business to trigger revenue growth; Margin expansion
Mindtree Ltd     
13.9
77.9
Margins expected to improve aided by stable currency realization and operational leverage
Punjab National Bank
42.8
13.0
20% YoY NII grow; Slippages to ramiain high but will matched by higher recoveries, resulting in decline in provision cost
Reliance Power
0.8
21.0
Robust topline growth and strong pricing power, resulting in robust APAT growth
South India Bank
1.1
57.9
Expect NII growth of 31% YoY driven by 30% loan growth.  Things to watch out -commentary on the gold loan portfolio 2) Impact of higher rates on  NRI deposit mobilization and cost of funds
Sun Pharma
6.4
50.7
Strong revenue growth led by domestic formulations, Taro US revenues and new launches in US viz.Allegra OTC, Ultram and Lipodex. Operating margins likely to expand substantially
Possible Surprises – Negatives
Name of the company
EPS (Rs)
yoy gr (%)
Reason
Bajaj Auto
27.9
17.5
Lackluster quarter driven by vol growth
Maruti Suzuki
19.4
-14.8
Positive on volume growth know but margins could decline 210 bps YoY due to full impact of adverse forex rates and higher royalty payment
M&M
9.8
5.6
Adjusted EBITDA margins to decline 20 bps QoQ/ 120 bps YoY due to higher production from MVML; Impact of slowing tractor demand
Reliance Industries
12.3
-25.4
Contraction in PAT despite reasonable revenue growth. Sequential decline in margin. Expect Gross Refining Margin (GRM) at $6.6 per bbl for Q4FY12E
Rallis India
1.2
2.9
Weakening opricing power leading to margin contraction and weak APAT growth
Voltas
2.0
-18.0
Expect weak performance from Voltas led by (1) muted revenues amidst pressure on EBITDA margins and (2) another round of provisioning on Sidra Medical project (Qatar)
United Phosphorus
3.9
-30.3
North American revenues are expected to decline by 10% yoy to Rs 3.7bn. Europe is likely to report revenue decline of 2% yoy while RoW revenues are expected to increase by 10% yoy. APAT of Rs 1.8bn, a contraction of 27% yoy

Click here to read report: Results Preview