31 March 2012

Strategy: Recommendations turn positive as the horizon rolls forward :: Kotak Securities PDF link

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http://www.kotaksecurities.com/pdf/indiadaily/indiadaily27032012.pdf


Strategy: Recommendations turn positive as the horizon rolls forward
` Whizdom: The framework in brief
` Whizdoms key recommendations: Positive recommendations move up to
59%
` Changes in recommendation due to rolling of the horizon period to
FY2014E from FY2013E

Economy: Industrial growth remains subdued; inflation increases :: ShareKhan PDF Link

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Monthly economy review  
Economy: Industrial growth remains subdued; inflation increases
  • In January 2012, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 6.8%, which was significantly higher than the market's expectations. The higher than expected performance was led by a strong growth in the manufacturing sector (up 8.5% year on year [YoY]) and a sharp jump in the non-durable consumer goods sector. 
  • The Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation for February 2012 came in at 6.95%, higher than the Street's expectations. The inflation rate for December 2011 too has been revised upwards to 7.74% from the provisional figure of 7.47%.
  • The growth in exports remained weak showing an increase of 10.1% YoY (up 6.7% in December 2011). Imports grew by 20.3% YoY (up 19.8% in December 2011). The trade deficit for January 2012 came in at $14.7 billion, higher than the trade deficit level recorded in December 2011. The trade deficit increased by 117.9% YoY. 
Banking: CRR cut by 75 basis points; interest rates likely to decline in Q1FY2013
  • In its last policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had maintained the status quo on the interest rates. However, prior to the monetary policy the RBI had reduced the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 75 basis points (125 basis points since January 25, 2012). However, at the March 15th mid quarter policy review the RBI kept the rates unchanged. Going ahead, if inflation moderates or the government initiates steps for fiscal consolidation the RBI may reduce the repo rates in the April 17th policy review meeting.
  • The credit offtake registered a growth of 16.4% YoY (as on March 9, 2012), which was higher than the growth of 15.8% recorded in the previous month (as on February 10, 2012). The credit growth is in line with the RBI's guidance of 16%.
  • The deposits registered a growth of 13.9% YoY (as on March 9, 2012), which was lower than the 15% year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth seen during the previous month (on February 10, 2011). The growth in the deposits has fallen due to the higher yields offered by the other debt instruments.
  • The credit-deposit (CD) ratio was at 76.7% (as on March 9, 2012), higher compared with the 75.6% CD ratio as on February 10, 2012. Meanwhile, the incremental CD ratio increased to 109% for the period, which was higher than the ratio seen during the previous month, reflecting a slower deposit growth and tighter liquidity in the market. 
  • The yields on the government securities (G-Secs; of ten-year maturity) stood at 8.6% as on March 28, 2012, in line with the previous month's levels. The G-Sec yields across the long-term maturities have increased on a month-on-month (M-o-M) basis.
Equity market: FIIs remain buyers 
  • During the MTD period in March 2012 (March 1-26), the FIIs were net buyers of equities and the domestic mutual funds were net sellers of domestic equities. For the MTD period in March 2012 (March 1-26), the FIIs bought equities worth Rs8,702 crore while the mutual funds sold equities worth Rs1,081 crore.



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ITC: 'Predictability-thesis' at play :: Kotak Securities PDF link


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http://www.kotaksecurities.com/pdf/indiadaily/indiadaily28032012.pdf

‘Predictability-thesis’ at play. We reiterate that ITC is going through a phase of
predictable and rational taxation, which augurs well for medium-term volume growth
(and hence higher quality of profit growth). We highlight the Government’s policy of
increasing taxes on bidis and chewing tobacco at a rate higher than cigarettes. After a
manageable 15% excise hike in the Union Budget, eight states left VAT on cigarettes
unchanged in their budgets. These states contribute ~55% to ITC’s sales. HP, Kerala
and Karnataka increased VAT by ~2%. Our positive view stays, ADD.

Consumer products: Bazaar Bytes #6: Indian jewelry retail :: Kotak Securities PDF link


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http://www.kotaksecurities.com/pdf/indiadaily/indiadaily26032012.pdf

Bazaar Bytes #6: Indian jewelry retail. We review the jewelry retail industry, which is
witnessing a significant shift in terms of (1) mandatory hallmarking, (2) increasing share
of the organized segment, (3) erstwhile regional players going national, (4) a host of
players (PCJ, TBZ, Joy Alukkas etc.) tapping the capital market to fund expansion plans,
(5) erstwhile jewelry exporters/wholesalers entering the retail market with their own
brands and (6) innovative product/brand launches to encourage casual purchases. Titan
(rated ADD) with first-mover advantage is likely to benefit most.

Automobiles: Auto demand resilient in March :: Kotak Securities PDF link


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http://www.kotaksecurities.com/pdf/indiadaily/indiadaily26032012.pdf

Automobiles
India
Auto demand resilient in March. Our interaction with dealers and financiers indicates
demand for cars and commercial vehicles is likely to be strong in March while twowheeler and tractor demand is likely to moderate. Strong demand for diesel cars and an
increase in diesel-engine capacity led to a pick-up in car demand in February and
March. Commercial vehicle demand is also holding up well due to good crops and
resilient domestic consumption.

State Bank of India: Driving our NIM call :: Kotak Securities PDF link

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http://www.kotaksecurities.com/pdf/indiadaily/indiadaily26032012.pdf


State Bank of India (SBIN)
Banks/Financial Institutions
Driving our NIM call. We believe that SBI’s NIMs are unlikely to compress significantly
as policy rates may not decline sharply, outlook on credit costs has not changed
materially and capital continues to remain a constraint despite the recent
announcements. We build moderation to factor a marginal shift in pricing power. We
expect the bank to deliver 16% CAGR and RoEs (post dilution) at 17% levels.
Attractively valued at 1.5X book and 10X FY2013E EPS (SOTP of `2,450). Maintain BUY

Sharekhan's top SIP fund picks :: ShareKhan PDF Link


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Sharekhan's top SIP fund picks
Large-cap fundsMulti-cap funds
Principal Large Cap FundICICI Prudential Discovery Fund - IP
Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity Fund - Plan ABirla Sun Life Dividend Yield Plus
Tata Pure Equity FundTata Dividend Yield Fund
Birla Sun Life Top 100 FundUTI Opportunities Fund
Reliance Top 200 Fund - RetailQuantum Long-Term Equity Fund
BSE SensexBSE 500
Mid-cap fundsTax saving funds
SBI Magnum Sector Funds Umbrella - Emerg Buss FundHDFC Taxsaver
DSP BlackRock Small and Midcap FundFidelity Tax Advantage Fund
Sundaram Select MidcapFranklin India Taxshield
IDFC Premier Equity Fund - Plan AReligare Tax Plan
Sundaram SMILE FundICICI Prudential Taxplan
BSE MidcapS&P Nifty


Fund focus
  • Principal Large Cap Fund
 

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Paper on 2G spectrum auction: ICICI Securities, PDF link

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http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_TelecomSector_EventUpdate.pdf


C o n s u l t a t i o n   p a p e r   o n  2 G   s p e c t r u m   a u c t i o n …
The recent ruling of the Supreme Court on cancellation of 122 licenses,
which were awarded on or after January 2008, has set an important task
for Trai – to decide the nature of  the auction of spectrum of cancelled
licensee as well as spectrum already available with the government. As a
response, Trai came out with a consultation paper requesting comments
from all stakeholders on some major issues in the 2G spectrum auction.
Some of the major issues that were to be discussed are:

Industrials: Nuclear power - A dream still quite far :: Kotak Securities PDF link


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http://www.kotaksecurities.com/pdf/indiadaily/indiadaily28032012.pdf

Nuclear power - A dream still quite far.  Big contribution from nuclear (20 GW by 2020)
remains difficult on back of (1) high capital cost (>Rs100 mn/MW) and time (>70 months) with
upside risks to both, (2) technology (stage-III of India’s nuclear programme is long way off while
pending international regulatory issues still limit access) and (3) negative public perception. Fresh
projects start-ups (Jaitapur-Areva, incremental units in Kudankulam and other indigenous plants)
may provide EPC opportunity, but may be some time away. Kudankulam (2 GW, Russian) is
complete and Rajasthan and Gujarat (1.4 GW each indigenous) have been ordered out already
(L&T, HCC, BHEL, Punj etc.). Globally capacity addition is marginal (post Chernobyl; receding in
Germany/Japan) apart from China (27 GW under construction).

Buy Supreme Infra; Target : Rs 316 : ICICI Securities, PDF link

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http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_SupremeInfrastructure_InitiatingCoverage.pdf


’  S  u p  r e m e  ’   v a  l u e   p o t e  n t i a  l …
Supreme Infrastructure (Supreme)  is a Mumbai based mid-sized
construction company with a presence primarily across roads, bridges,
and buildings. With a strong order book of | 3772 crore as on Q3FY12,
2.8x book to bill on a TTM basis, we expect Supreme’s revenues to grow
at 30% CAGR during FY11-14E. It enjoys superior margins vis-à-vis its
peers through access to quarries and own RMC, asphalt and crushing
plants, which lends it comparative  advantage in terms of cost of
aggregates. Supreme also has a portfolio of nine BOT projects, the equity
of which is largely tied up, providing us comfort over funding of the
projects. We are initiating coverage on the stock with a BUY rating.

Eight in ten households in India own a home ::Business Line

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REDUCE SHREE CEMENTS LTD : target RS.2746: Kotak PDF link

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http://www.kotaksecurities.com/pdf/dmb/MorningInsight26032012.pdf


SHREE CEMENTS LTD
PRICE: RS.2959 RECOMMENDATION: REDUCE
TARGET  PRICE:  RS.2746 FY13E (P/CEPS): 9.1X
q We spoke to the company management regarding outlook on the cement
sector and power projects.
q Cement prices stayed firm during Q4FY12; however prices in northern region are still lower than other regions. Cost pressures continue to remain
high.
q Power plants have now commissioned but company has not tied up for
long term PPAs from these new units
q We tweak our estimates to factor in better than expected cement volumes and prices in northern region, decline in pet coke prices and also
attach valuations of power project.
q We however continue to maintain our cautious stance on the company
due to its valuations and recommend REDUCE. We would look for better
entry points to invest in the stock.

Economy Release Calendar - April : Edelweiss PDF link

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Given below is a calendar indicating significant economic events/releases due in April 2012:
·       For India, monetary policy announcement, industrial production data and inflation data will be of significance.
·       Globally, monetary policy announcements, data released on inflation, manufacturing indices and unemployment statistics will continue to be keenly awaited.
       

BUY Cox & Kings; Target : Rs 195 : ICICI Securities, PDF link

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http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_CoxKings_InitiatingCoverage.pdf


B e t t i n g   o n   s y n e r g i e s …

Cox & Kings (C&K) is one of the leading and oldest (established in 1758)
players in the travel & tourism industry that caters to the overall travel
needs of Indian and international travellers. The company has a presence in
more than 19 countries besides India through subsidiaries and JVs. Opting
for the inorganic route to grow exponentially, C&K has done seven
acquisitions in the past six years (including the Holidaybreak Plc.
acquisition), which has made it an integrated player globally with quality
products and services. With its recent HBR acquisition, we expect return
ratios  to  improve  post  FY12E  as  it  has provided synergies in terms of
geographic diversification, widening its product portfolio and cross-selling
opportunities, amid challenges in terms of effective integration. We are
initiating coverage on the stock with a BUY rating.

Buy McLeod Russel ; Target : | 305 : ICICI Securities, PDF link

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http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_McLeodRussel_EventUpdate.pdf


P o s i t i v e   o u t l o o k   f o r   i n d us t r y   t o   a i d   r e a l i s a t i o n …
McLeod Russel (MCL), the largest tea producer of India, is expected to
record higher earnings (FY13E) on the back of improving tea prices led by
increasing demand and shortfall in global tea production. MCL would
benefit from a decline in production in Kenya and Sri Lanka that would
boost export demand from India, thereby supporting better realisations.
Further, the company’s bid for tea gardens in Uganda would aid MCL’s
volume sales (increase by ~5.5 mkg) in the coming years. Hence, we are
revising our target price, maintaining a BUY rating on the stock.

Health Check -March 2012 : ICICI Securities, PDF link

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http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_HealthCheck_March2012.pdf


P f i z e r   b l o w   t o   B i o c o n ,   l i ce n s e   b o o s t   t o   N a t c o …
In a major disappointment for Biocon, Pfizer has decided to conclude its
partnership with the company to market four Insulin products globally.
Although Biocon is expected to retain a major part of ~US$200 million,
the news has delivered a substantial blow to the future prospects as the
company has to scout for new alliances.
In another development, Natco Pharma (and for that matter other generic
players) received a shot in the arm when the Indian patent office issued a
license to the company to market a generic version of Bayer’s patented
cancer drug Nexavar by invoking provisions of compulsory licensing for
the first time since 1970 when the patent regime was first introduced.
The Union Budget 2012-13 extended the R&D benefits for five more years
giving a major boost to all major R&D spenders. However, it proved to be
a dampener for Sun and Cadila as the budget proposed to bring limited
liability partnership (LLP) entities, which were hitherto exempted from
any tax provisions, under the purview of MAT. This provision will
increase the tax liabilities for Sun and Cadila substantially.
On the new launches, Dr Reddy’s and Lupin launched generic versions of
Pfizer’s Geodon (anti-schizophrenic) in the US. Ranbaxy launched generic
Lipitor in Italy, Sweden and the Netherlands.
Finally, the domestic formulations market continued the growth
momentum by growing at 18.5% in February driven mainly by chronic
therapies such as CVS and anti-diabetics as per the latest AIOCD data.
With an extended winter, acute therapies also performed well. Sun,
Glenmark, Ipca and Pfizer continued their strong run while Cadila, Lupin,
Indoco and Cipla also joined the bandwagon.

Market's risk-reward ratio balanced right now: Daiwa MF ( CNBC-TV18)

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In an interview to CNBC-TV18, David Pezarkar, head - equity, Daiwa Mutual Fund says that the global markets are consolidating now. He stressed that there is no reason to be ultra-bullish on Indian markets. He feels that capital goods might not outperform because of many uncertainties in the sector, but there could be individual standouts that need to be looked at.

Below is the edited version of the transcript. Also watch the accompanying video.

Q: Liquidity and global market support has been working in our favour. Do you see that peter off in next couple of months?
A: Global markets are some sort of consolidating now. As of now, there is no reason to be ultra bullish on our markets. Most of the optimism has faded away. The markets will stay in a sort of range.
Investors would be advised to try and look at panic kind of reactions to add on to their equity positions in large cap, well managed companies with strong balance sheets. I think that will again be the focus after the January and February rally of high beta stocks.

Q: How would you approach capital goods now?
A: Performance of all the sectors in March has been a complete reversal when compared to their outperform show in January and February. There has been a move towards risk aversion.
Sectors such as FMCG and pharma which were outperformers in 2010-2011 have again started outperforming. Capital goods might not outperform. We would have to look at individual stock ideas. The unbridled optimism which was created in earlier months might not sustain. There are too many uncertainties for the sector as a whole, but there could be individual standouts and those will have to be looked at.

Q: We have reached the lower end of the trading range. Do you think the risk reward is in favour of investments?
A: The risk reward is sort of balanced as of now. There is some amount of nervousness around but we are not seeing the kind of pessimism that we saw in November-December last year.
If we see that kind of pessimism or we see similar kind of selloff, then it will give a extremely good investment opportunity. At this point it is better to look at the large well managed companies and trade in a range of 7-10%. 

Whenever a stock is down around 5-6% from its high, one can look at it. Unfortunately that's how the markets will behave for next two or three months or unless we see strong policy action or oil cooling off substantially.

Buy Ashok Leyland; Target :Rs 36 : ICICI Securities, PDF link

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http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_Ashok%20Leyland_InitiatingCoverage.pdf



P u r e   C V   p l a y ;   r e - r a t i n g   i n   s i g h t ! ! !
Ashok Leyland (ALL) is one of the few pure play major commercial
vehicle manufacturers in India. ALL is the second largest player across
various segments with an overall market share of ~23% YTD. It has
remained highly cyclical in terms of revenues/earnings (MHCV led) as it
remains highly dependent on macros like GDP growth/interest rates.
However, the foray into various segments including LCV segment is
expected to provide lot of sustainable revenue streams. We believe ALL
would witness volume growth at ~19% CAGR (FY12E-14E) as both
MHCV/LCV witness higher than historical growth rates as the
investment cycle starts to take precedence over consumption. On
financials, we find ALL’s earnings potential on a free cash basis pretty
attractive as large capex is over. On earnings, we expect revenue &
profit to grow at ~14% & 28% CAGR over FY12E-14E to ~| 16,732 crore
& ~| 800 crore, respectively. On valuations, we assign a higher up-cycle
multiple of ~11x and initiate coverage on the stock with BUY rating.

Balance of Payments - Slips into deficit :Edelweiss Research PDF link

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Balance of Payments (BoP) slipped into deficit of USD12.8bn in Q3FY12, first time since December 2008, as weak capital flows (USD6.6bn) could not fund the widening Current Account Deficit (CAD) of ~USD19.4bn (4.3% of GDP). Trade deficit widened to 10.5% of GDP (from ~9.9% in Q2), as exports slowed in the wake of deteriorating external economy and imports held up on rising gold imports. Invisibles, however, improved on account of rise in software exports and flow of remittances during the quarter. Meanwhile, capital flows, particularly ECB and short-term loans, were subdued reflecting escalation of stress in EU banking system although FDI flows were healthy.
In Q4, BoP situation should stabilize as CAD narrows with seasonal improvement in exports and recovery in capital flows. Nonetheless, CAD is expected to reach an elevated level of ~3.8% of GDP in FY12.

Regards,

Commercial Vehicles - All is not well! Centrum

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Commercial Vehicles


All is not well!

We interacted with commercial vehicle manufactures, fleet operators and body building units to understand the implications of the announced excise duty hike on truck chassis. This will lead to an increase in chassis price for transporters by 4%. Based on our interactions with fleet operators, we believe this increase will put further stress on their profitability. Though the move is aimed at incentivizing the sale of completely built units (CBUs) by OEs and organised body builders, we understand that currently CBUs account for only 15% of OE sales. Our interaction with fleet operators also suggest that more than 95% of body-building work is done at local garages/unorganized units due to cost savings and greater flexibility in terms of customization to specific needs. As a result, the impact of 4% will be felt by most fleet owners. 
Though OEMs have raised prices to the extent of excise duty hike, we believe that given the weak demand and continued pressure on fleet operators’ profitability, OEMs will have to give discounts to support demand. Within the CV segment, we expect partial under-recovery especially in the M&HCV goods segment. However, given the strong demand environment in the LCV segment (we also hold positive view driven by under penetration, low investment and last mile transport), we expect the price hike to get absorbed in the market place.
We continue to maintain our volume growth estimate for M&HCV segment at 8-9% for FY13E (in-line with 8-9% for FY12E). However, we foresee downside risks to our FY13E numbers given the stress on fleet operators’ profitability (Our Oil and Gas analyst expects diesel hike in April 2012) and macro indicators still suggesting lack of pick-up in the investment cycle. We wait for macro indicators to show meaningful signs of revival to review our cautious view.
Within the Commercial Vehicle space, we continue to maintain Sell call on Ashok Leyland (CMP Rs.29, TP Rs.27, downside of 8%) and Hold rating on Tata Motors CMP Rs.273, TP Rs.300, Upside of 10 %).
m  Budget proposal: The recent budget has proposed increase in the excise duty for chassis from earlier 10%+ additional Rs.10,000 to 15% now (standard excise duty increased from 10% to 12% and Rs.10,000 has been replaced by an additional 3%). Chassis sales account for more than 85% of overall trucks sales.
m   …Impact on vehicle cost: This would lead to an increase in chassis cost for transporters by 4% and 2-2.5% for CBUs (if a transporter buys from OEM or gets the body built by organized players).
m  …Our take: We believe that given the soft demand outlook for M&HCV goods segment coupled with negligible rise in fleet operators’ pricing power, it would be difficult for OEMs to pass on the excise hike in full. This would lead to partial under-recovery and impact margins. Even if OEMs decide to completely pass on the hike, we believe it will have to be compensated by discounts.
m  Neutral on the CV segment: We continue to maintain our Sell rating on Ashok Leyland and Hold on Tata Motors.



Thanks & Regards, 

Sharekhan Mutual Fund Finder March 2012: PDF link

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Sharekhan Mutual Fund Finder
  • Top equity picks
  • Top SIP picks
  • SIP calculator
  • Crorepati calculator
  • Fund of the month: Principal Large Cap Fund
  • Performance of debt funds and ETFs

     
     

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  • Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a postition in the companies mentioned in the article.


    Commodities close mixed: ShareKhan PDF link

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    Commodities close mixed
    A day after surging on Mr Bernanke's "accommodative" policy comments, commodities took a breather yesterday; commodities closed mixed as markets gauge the possibility of further easing by the US Fed amid not so encouraging global macro-indicators...


    Click here to read report: Commodity Buzz(Metal & Energy)

    Nifty testing 200 DMA Ø CSEC Research

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    Nifty testing 200 DMA

    Ø    Key benchmark indices edged lower, as weak global stocks weighed on sentiment.

    Ø    Interest rate sensitive i.e. banking stocks declined on fears banks' bad loans could increase in a slowing economy. Among banking stocks, Bank of India, Kotak Mahindra Bank, IndusInd Bank, Punjab National Bank, Bank of Baroda, IDBI Bank and Axis Bank dropped by 0.94% to 4%.

    Ø    Cairn India tumbled 4.16% after the company's chief executive officer told the media that a proposed 80% increase in cess on crude petroleum oil produced in India could discourage the firm's expansion plan.

    Ø      Gold financing companies gained on bargain hunting after steep recent slide triggered. Manappuram Finance gained 2.5% while Muthoot Finance rose 2.97%.

    Outlook
    Ø    U.S. stocks fell for a second session as investor’s dumped energy and other stocks closely tied to global growth. Durable-goods orders stood below street estimates which also aided the fall.

    Ø     In early trade Asian markets are down nearly a percent. The SGX Nifty is trading below 5200 mark. Going ahead Indian market is likely to open on a soft note with a negative bias.
     
     
    Regards,
    CSEC Research

    Buy Jaiprakash Associates; Price target: Rs105 :: ShareKhan PDF Link


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    Jaiprakash Associates
    Cluster: Ugly Duckling
    Recommendation: Buy
    Price target: Rs105
    Current market price: Rs77
    New orders in bag, execution a key challenge
    The company has bagged orders worth Rs913 crore in Bhutan for construction of 720MW hydroelectric projects. The expected margin in the newly awarded projects is around 20-21%, which we believe is positive for the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) division of the company. Further, the company has successfully completed two mega projects, namely the Karcham Wangtoo project and the Yamuna Expressway project, and will start generating revenue in the near term. Further, the cement division has posted a robust 40% volume growth for February 2012 due to an improvement in the cement demand and capacity addition. With the increase in the price of cement in the past couple of months, the realisation and EBITDA per tonne of cement in Q4FY2012 are expected to improve on a sequential basis.

    Valuation: We continue to like JAL due to its diversified business model and aggressive expansion plan. However, the cost pressure in the cement division and the fluctuating profitability in the construction division will be the key risks. In terms of valuation, we continue to value the stock using the sum-of-the parts (SOTP) valuation method and arrive at a value of Rs105 per share. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs105. At the current market price, the stock is trading at PE of 25.1x FY2012 and 18.5x FY2013 earnings estimates.


     

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    NSE, Bulk deals, 30-Mar-2012

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    DateSymbolSecurity NameClient NameBuy / SellQuantity TradedTrade Price /
    Wght. Avg.
    Price
    Remarks
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