27 March 2012

Hindustan Unilever - Focus on high growth categories; visit note; Buy ::Edelweiss PDF link

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Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN, INR 403, Buy)
Our positive stance on Hindustan Unilever (HUL) was reinforced after our meeting with the companys management for its sustained aggression, high volume growth in high-margin categories (personal products), better growth trajectory in S&D, innovation in foods, increasing rural distribution and premiumisation of products. Key risks could be rising palm oil prices and weakening currency. We maintain BUY.

City Union Bank -Strong ties in south, rural & semi-urban India drive growth; Buy ::Anand Rathi

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City Union Bank’s (CUB) prudent loan growth, best-in-class
productivity and superior asset quality are likely, in our view, to drive
profitability and sustain an RoA of 1.7% over FY12-14. We initiate
coverage on the stock with a Buy rating and a price target of `68.
 Prudent growth with strong customer focus. With over 86% of its
branches in south India, ~47% in rural and semi-urban India, and its
century-old experience in the industry, CUB has forged strong customer
relationships. As a result, its NIM (3.4% in Dec ’11) is traditionally higher
than that of peers, despite a highly-secured loan book (98% of loans) and a
relatively low-cost deposit share (16.8% in Dec ’11). Management has
targeted balanced and steady business growth across credit cycles, while
preserving credit quality and profitability. We estimate 30% CAGR in loan
book over FY12-14, led by a customer-centric strategy and likely addition
of 200 branches.
 Best-in-class productivity. Operating costs have grown at a slower
pace than CUB’s balance sheet in the last five years, enabling it to enjoy an
industry-low cost-to-asset of 1.8%. The employees’ union has maintained
cordial relations with senior management, with no instances of labour
unrest since inception. We expect the strong productivity to help sustain
profitability and maintain a high RoA of 1.7% over FY12-14.
 Superior credit quality. Gross NPA (1.2% of loans) and net NPA (0.5%
of loans) are some of the lowest in the sector, as a result of its robust credit
appraisal, a highly collateralized loan book and a deep understanding of
customers’ cash-flows. NPA coverage is a healthy 76.2%, while tier-1
capital of 11.5% suffices for prudent loan growth.
 Valuation. At our Jun’13 price target, the stock would trade at a PBV
of 1.8x FY13e and 1.5x FY14e. Our price target is based on the twostage
DDM (CoE: 13.1%; beta: 0.6; Rf: 8%). Risk: Slower-thanexpected
economic growth could impact loan growth and credit quality

Persistent Systems: Rating : Buy Target : Rs. 388 :FinQuest

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Persistent Systems Ltd. (PSL) is a leading player in the niche Outsourced Product Development
(OPD) market. OPD is a high growth sector which is also highly underpenetrated at the same
time. The company's strong technical expertise and the ability to provide services across the
product life cycle differentiates it from the peers. The contribution of non-linear revenue (IP
sales) stream at ~9% offsets some volatility while cushioning PSL from margin pressures.

Earn up to 8.43% pa - Invest in IDFC infra bonds

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Highlights of the Issue:

üSecured, redeemable, non-convertible debentures with tax benefits under the Income Tax Act, 1961
üAdditional Tax benefits available for investments made up to Rs 20,000/-
ü Rated “AAA” by FITCH & ICRA respectively
üInterest Income on the Bonds is taxable 
ü
Option of Issuing either in Demat form or physical form
Issue Details:.
ParticularsOption 1Option 2
Issue OpensMonday, March 19, 2012
Issue ClosesFriday, March 30, 2012
Issue SizeRs 5000 crores
Rate of Interest8.43 % p.aN.A
Frequency of interest paymentAnnualCumulative
Rating “(ICRA)AAA” from ICRA and “Fitch AAA (ind)” from FITCH
Face ValueRs. 5,000/-
Who can applyResident Individuals / HUF
Maturity / Redemption 10 years from the Deemed Date of allotment
Lock-in period 5 years from the Deemed Date of Allotment
ListingNSE and BSE
Minimum SubscriptionRs. 10000/-
Registrars Karvy Computershare Private Limited
Maturity Amount Rs 5000/- per Tranche 3 BondRs. 11,230/- per Tranche 3 Bond
Buy Back Date  Date falling five years & 1 day from the deemed date of allotment
Buy Back AmountRs. 5,000/- per Tranche 3 BondRs. 7,495/- per Tranche 3 Bond
Tax Benefits:

Under section 80C of Income Tax Act, any amount not exceeding Rs. 20,000 per annum, paid or deposited as subscription to long term infrastructure bonds during the previous year relevant to the assessment year beginning April 1, 2011, shall be deducted in computing the taxable income. This is over and above the Rs. 1,00,000 tax benefit available under section 80C.
Tax rateSeries 1Series 2Series 1**Series 2**
10.310.11%9.61%11.23%10.81%
20.612.08%10.95%14.50%13.54%
30.914.45%12.50%18.39%16.74%
**Assuming Buy-Back of Bonds on Buy-Back date

Market Summary - 27.03.2012: Angel Broking, PDF link

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Market Outlook - 27.03.2012: Angel Broking, PDF link

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MAHINDRA HOLIDAYS & RESORTS Still some way to go: Edelweiss

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We met with the management of Mahindra Holidays & Resorts (MHRIL)
recently. The company is expecting a significant rise in membership
additions driven by increased communication with existing members,
improving their overall experience through blackout of key resorts to
non‐members, acquisition of new resorts (250 rooms expected to be
added over next few days) and introduction of a strong referrals
programme. However, EBIDTA margins are likely to remain under
pressure in the near term which will also keep earnings growth in check.
We maintain ‘REDUCE’, given its rich valuations.
Uptick in membership additions likely
The new senior management team is taking a number of steps to improve the overall
performance which has already been reflected in the last couple of quarters in terms
of better membership additions. The key disappointment this year so far has been low
new room additions (144) as against the expected 600 rooms at the beginning of the
year. However, with 250 rooms expected to be added shortly, this could give a further
fillip to an improving net membership trend. We are estimating a membership
addition of ~20,000 in FY13 (versus 17,500 in FY12E).
EBIDTA margins to remain under pressure
EBIDTA margins for the 9mFY12 period are down 500bps YoY. Key reasons for the
decline, particularly in Q3FY12, have been expenses incurred on renovation in few
resorts and a blackout of non‐members from key resorts (higher margin). A rebound in
margins to earlier levels, however, looks unlikely given the fact that new resorts ‐
coming up shortly ‐ will take time to break even.
Outlook and valuations: Cautious; ‘REDUCE’
We will watch closely the success of the strategy adopted by the new team to increase
membership additions. We continue to value MHRIL, using DCF methodology with
target price of INR242. We maintain our ‘REDUCE’ recommendation on the stock.

Derivatives Report - 27.03.2012: Angel Broking, PDF link

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27 March: Stocks in News :Edelweiss

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Stocks in News
RIL, BP likely to submit devpt plan for KG-D6 gas finds by Oct. (ET)
Jindal Steel plans to scale down steel, Pallet plants in Bolivia. (ET)
BG may tap new investors to sell Gujarat Gas stake. (ET)
GMR raises INR 15 bn debt from ICICI Bank for Energy boost. (ET)
ICICI Bank asks Kingfisher to top up security cover for loans. (BS)
Coal India 180 projects await govt nod. (BS)
IDBI Bank to get INR 8.10-bn capital infusion. (BS)
Maharastra Budget: tax rate to go up by 4% and 2% on diesel and petrol cars resp. (ET)
AB Nuvo to issue warrants to raise INR 14.85 bn. (MINT)

27 March: Sales Traders Commentary :Edelweiss

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Sales Traders Commentary
On Monday, Indian equity markets ended with a massive loss due to rising bond yields, falling rupee, GAAR issues and selling pressure on higher levels. Both Sensex and Nifty dipped more than 1.70% each, with Nifty closing below 5200 levels. Selling pressure was seen across the sectors, major losers were realty, power, financials, metal, and PSU stocks, which were down more than 2% each.  The Sensex closed at 17052, down 309 points while the Nifty slipped 94 points to end the day at 5184. Major losers were ICICI Bank (4.30%), Sterlite Industries (India) (4.16%), Cipla (4.10%), Tata Power Company (3.77%), D L F (3.59%), NTPC (3.53%), ONGC (2.11%), SBI (2.10%), and TCS (1.76%). The Realty index was down 3.58%. Major losers were D B Realty (7.45%), Housing Development and Infrastructure (7.02%), D L F (3.59%), Godrej Properties (3.28%), and Anant Raj Industries (0.09%). The Power index slipped 2.56%. Major losers were Crompton Greaves (3.24%), Bharat Heavy Electricals (3.03%), GVK Power & Infrastructure (2.51%), Adani Power (2.28%), and Reliance Infrastructure (2.05%).
The Bankex was down 2.44%. Major losers were Canara Bank(3.61%), Bank Of India (1.97%), Bank Of Baroda (1.7%), H D F C Bank (1.04%), and Federal Bank (0.47%). The PSU index was down 2.19%. Major losers were Andhra Bank (4.67%), Allahabad Bank (2.01%), Bank Of India (1.97%), Bank Of Baroda (1.7%), and Balmer Lawrie & Company (1.49).
Major losers in the mid–cap space were Alstom Projects India (2.48%), Aban Offshore (2.28%), A I A Engineering (1.14%), A B G Shipyard (0.85%), and Alfa-Laval (India) (0.12%).
Major losers among small caps were Aanjaneya Lifecare (4.22%), A B G Infralogistics (2.33%), A2Z Maintenance & Engineering Services (2.24%), Aarti Industries (0.84%), and Trident (0.67%). Globally, Asian indices ended on a positive note, while European indices were trading mixed.

Technical Report - 27.03.2012: Angel Broking, PDF link

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Hurdles to long-term investment ::Business Line

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The mutual fund industry has failed in branding and marketing its products.
With returns of 15-30 per cent per annum during the last ten years, equity mutual funds have delivered the goods for investors who stayed wedded to them. Despite this, the industry has failed to convince investors that mutual funds are a good option for their long-term goals.

What's in store for consumption stocks ::Business Line

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Inflation continues to be high. The Budget has hiked excise duties, and manufacturers are likely to pass on this additional cost. Indeed, Tata Motors has already hiked product prices by up to Rs 35,000.
Service tax too has been hiked besides moving to bring all services, save a few, under the tax net. Eating out, for example, is going to become more expensive. Next, interest rates are yet to soften. The monthly loan payment burden for consumers will remain high.
These suggest that consumers, whose disposable incomes are already stretched, will have to further realign spending. Rural demand too is beginning to show signs of cooling off. Deficient monsoons and provisional data pointing to a sedate rabi crop may result in lower rural spending. The MGNREGA employment scheme, which had put money directly in rural hands, has seen an 18 per cent cut in outlay for the next fiscal.

WHO WINS

The ongoing trends in consumption, therefore, look set to continue for the next few quarters. Under the circumstances, companies that can effect increases in their selling prices and yet hold on to their sales volumes are the ones likely to win. For instance, HUL's dominance in soaps and detergents has allowed it to raise product prices successfully. Likewise, Page Industries has held on to good growth.
Companies with non-discretionary products or which don't take up a large share of consumer wallets may also sustain sales. A presence across price points or product lines, such as Shoppers Stop, also helps in stemming the impact of a spending slowdown. Maintaining margins, even as input prices rise, as was the case for last year, is another plus.
Overall, segments or companies with pricing power, strong rural demand or which take up a smaller wallet share, such as FMCGs, two-wheelers or small appliances, could manage to maintain revenue growth.
A decrease in interest rates could be the catalyst to boost spending. As disposable incomes are freed up, and credit becomes more attractive, an uptick in spending across categories could emerge.

Tax clarity - speically for readers ::Business Line

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Is filing tax returns mandatory for a non-resident Indian whose gross income is less than Rs 1.5 lakh in 2011-12? — Shivram
A person is mandatorily required to file a return of income for financial year 2011-12 if his total income (including income of any other person for whom he is assessable) exceeds the income exemption limit prescribed for the year.

Day-trading is a very serious proposition- CEO, CapitalVia Global Research ::Business Line

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We don't want to get into broking as that would hinder our research. Our business would then depend on the frequency of trades put in by our clients. Research has to be unbiased and we want to play to our core strength. — Mr Rohit Gadia, CEO, CapitalVia Global Research
Day-trading is a very serious proposition, says Mr Rohit Gadia, CEO, CapitalVia Global Research. In an interview with Business Line, he chats up how organised trading can help bring about a radical change in the way Indians day trade. Excerpts:
What is your business model?
More often than not, traders in the Indian markets base their trades on speculation. It is, therefore, irrational, as there isn't much discipline and risk-management behind it. But trading is a very serious proposition. It's a full-time business and requires a lot of commitment. Our business is to create an organised industry of day-traders by educating our clients in trading nuances.
We give trading recommendations to day-traders, and not to investors. We give the day-traders inputs on markets, trading tips with entry and exit points, stop-losses and do their complete handholding. Our recommendations are completely based on technical analysis of the market. Apart from the standard tools available, we use our own algorithms also.
Our business is based on subscription basis. We charge our customers on a subscription basis — monthly, quarterly and annually.
What is the subscription base now? And typically what's the profile of your clients?
We have more than 2,500 subscribers now. When we started we had only five (2008). We closed last year with 1,400 subscribers and are hoping to close next year with close to 6,000.
Our clients are all professional day-traders, and not someone who is a lawyer, doctor or a business man, looking to trade part-time. We do an initial risk-profiling of our customers. On an average, our subscribers are in the 28-36 years age bracket and are spread across India.
Typically what are the subscription charges? And what is your success ratio?
Our subscriptions start from Rs 4,000 a month and goes up to Rs 25,000 a month. It depends on product-to-product.
Our trading recommendations are live. We have over 50 people doing technical analyses. When we give a ‘Buy' we have specific reasons that back our recommendations. While our recommendations are based purely on technical analysis, we also check on the fundamentals. Our hit ratio is about 75 per cent on an average.
What are your expansion plans?
We are a standalone, pure-play research company, that's not into broking, PMS, MF, insurance or even demat and trading accounts. And we plan to keep it like that. We don't want to get into broking as that would hinder our research, as our business would then depend on the frequency of trades put in by our clients. Research has to be unbiased and we want to play to our core strength.
As for expansion, we are now planning to set up physical presence across country, as lot of our customers have started demanding local support.
We plan to open up 13-15 branches in the next 15 months. Local presence will help us manage our customers better. We are currently talking to a couple of VCs for funding these.
At a time when a lot of market advice is given for free across media, do you see people willing to shell out money for trading tips?
If you ask a 15-year old kid in India what he/she would like to become when they grow up, you would typically get a doctor or an engineer as the answer. But ask a 15-year old in US or Europe, and you are sure to get, say a bond trader or equity trader as one of the replies. That's the seriousness with which the profession is seen in developed financial markets. This kind of seriousness is only now emerging in our markets.
So when people truly understand the product, they are more than willing to pay for it. Besides, they could lose a lot more in a casual trade!

Home loan EMIs: Beware of your last instalment ::Business Line

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Pleased that you are close to settling your home loan, with just the last few EMIs remaining? Well done, but do take note of what you pay as the last instalment.
An EMI is a fixed amount paid by the borrower to the lender, every month, over the tenure of the loan.
But for those who have made part-prepayments on the loan and have chosen to keep the EMI constant, there may be a surprise.
The last payment instalment instead of being the same as earlier instalments should be a lower amount.
This is because the final payment is a balancing figure - comprising only the principal amount outstanding the month before, along with applicable interest.
Let's consider an example. Say, you had taken a loan of Rs 20 lakh for 15 years at the rate of 10 per cent a year.
Paying an EMI of Rs 21,492, the outstanding principal at the end of 14 years would be Rs 2,44,462. At this point, assume you prepay Rs 50,000 but keep the EMI same at Rs 21,492.
The outstanding principal will reduce to Rs 1,94,462 and the remaining tenure of the loan declines from 12 months to around 10 months.
At the end of the 9th month (just before the last instalment), the principal outstanding will be only Rs 9,540.
This, along with the interest cost of Rs 79 works out to an instalment due of Rs 9,619 in the 10th month, much lower than the EMIs for the earlier months (Rs 21,492).
There have been instances of lenders charging the same EMI amount in the last instalment even in cases such as those mentioned above.
This results in borrowers paying much more than warranted. In the example above, the same EMI in the 10th month as in the earlier months translates into the borrower paying a total of Rs 2, 06,335 as principal payment in the 15th year against the principal outstanding of Rs 1, 94,462. Paying more than what is due is not logical.

SETTLE BEFORE LAST INSTALMENT

Borrowers should be alert and bring such discrepancies to the notice of lenders.
Better still, borrowers should consider settling the outstanding principal soon after the penultimate EMI payment, to avoid the possibility of being overcharged in the last instalment.
Another alternative is to change the EMI amount after the part-prepayment, such that the remaining liability is evenly spread over the balance tenure. For instance, in the case above, a change in the EMI amount to Rs 20,349 at the beginning of the 15th year would translate into the outstanding principal being settled in the same 10 months without the borrower being overcharged. In essence, if the borrower partly prepays but changes the EMI accordingly, she can avoid the risk of paying more than warranted in the final instalment.
The problem of excess payment in the last instalment also does not arise when the borrower settles his loan according to the originally agreed payment schedule, without making part-prepayments in between.

BSE, Bulk deals, 26/3/2012

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Deal DateScrip CodeCompanyClient NameDeal Type *QuantityPrice **
26/3/2012531161ABM KnowledgeAEGIS TRANSPORTATION PRIVATE LIMITEDB15000079.00
26/3/2012531161ABM KnowledgeLIPSITA PROPERTIES PVT. LTD.S15000079.00
26/3/2012590114Arunjyoti EnterprisesDHRUV SAWHNEYB4000025.60
26/3/2012590114Arunjyoti EnterprisesPUKHRAJ HANJARIMAL MEHTAS4000025.60
26/3/2012509053Banas FinanceVORA FINANCIAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDS69800016.05
26/3/2012512608Bhandari HosREKHA UPESH SHAHB5708935.75
26/3/2012512608Bhandari HosALPESH DINESHBHAI KANABARB8000035.09
26/3/2012512608Bhandari HosVALUE PLUS SHARES N SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITEDS6500135.00
26/3/2012512608Bhandari HosALPESH DINESHBHAI KANABARS8000035.75
26/3/2012526853Bilcare-$PASHA FINANCE PVT. LTD.B245022182.75
26/3/2012526853Bilcare-$ORANGE MAURITIUS INVETMENTS LTDS245022182.75
26/3/2012523054Binayak TexHEERADEVI PACHERIWALAB31309305.00
26/3/2012523054Binayak TexTARUN NANDKUMAR SEKSARIAS6773305.00
26/3/2012523054Binayak TexN K SEKSARIA FAMILY TRUSTS7536305.00
26/3/2012523054Binayak TexHARSH NANDKUMAR SEKSARIAS7000305.00
26/3/2012523054Binayak TexSUDHA MOHTAS10000305.00
26/3/2012531327Charms IndsPRATIKSINGH JAYENDRASINGH SOLANKIB270835.07
26/3/2012531327Charms IndsROHNIL BORADIAB708005.00
26/3/2012531327Charms IndsNILESH KANUBHAI SHAHS274005.01
26/3/2012531327Charms IndsNEETABEN NILESHBHAI SHAHS371005.00
26/3/2012531327Charms IndsPRATIKSINGH JAYENDRASINGH SOLANKIS270835.08
26/3/2012511696Chartered CapMOHIB NOMANBHAI KHERICHAB2926546.13
26/3/2012511696Chartered CapSHAH BHUSHANKUMAR PRANLALS2926546.13
26/3/2012531358Choice IntlSWASTIVINAYAKAREALESTATE DEVELOPMENT LTDB5750033.72
26/3/2012531358Choice IntlSWASTI VINAYAKA INVESTECH LIMITEDS5750033.63
26/3/2012533407CIL Nova PetroCHIRIPAL EXIM LLPB50000021.00
26/3/2012533407CIL Nova PetroNANDAN EXIM LIMITEDS50000021.00
26/3/2012511672Clarus FinanceCONTINENTAL FISCAL MANAGEMENT LTDB10000028.35
26/3/2012511672Clarus FinanceCOMFORT DEALCOM PRIVATE LIMITEDB10000028.35
26/3/2012511672Clarus FinanceSUMANGALAM FINANCIAL ADVISORY PRIVATE LIMITEDB10640028.35