20 March 2012

Week of 19th March 2012: Vivek Patil Weekly Technical Analysis: ICICI Sec PDF link

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http://content.icicidirect.com/ULFiles/UploadFile_2012319101845.asp 



Weekly Technical Analysis
March 19,2012
- By Vivek Patil, India's foremost expert in Elliot Wave Analysis
 
Top Stories of the Week

  • Sensex turns volatile around Budget, ends flat however.
  • IIP growth surprises at 6.8% in 'Jan.
  • Loan recast set to hit a record Rs.1.5 lakh crs. in FY12.
  • Railway Minister proposes passenger fare hike, upsets Mamata.
  • Economic Survey predicts GDP accelerating to 7.6% and 8.6% in two years.
  • RBI dashes rate cut hopes citing inflation.
  • FM raises Excise and Service Tax by 2%. 
  • Stock market unimpressed by the Budget.

Budget Review 2012-13 Promises > Expectations; Conviction < Realism : Emkay PDF link

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Budget Review 2012-13
Promises > Expectations; Conviction < Realism
n     First impression of pro-growth and consolidation: The combination of 13.1% growth in expenditure  (vs our expectation of 10%) at Rs 14.9tn and a robust tax revenue growth 19.5%, afforded by the 200bp increase in excise duty/service tax to 12% and measures to increase service tax collections, gives an impression of fiscal consolidation in Union Budget for FY13. The fiscal deficit target for FY13 at Rs 5.1tn or 5.1% of GDP is a decline from 5.9% in FY12. In addition the higher allocation under capital account at 30% yoy also gives a first impression of a investment and growth oriented budget.

MFs eye Rajiv Gandhi Equity Savings Scheme :Business Standard,

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Indian fund managers want the proposed Rajiv Gandhi Equity Savings Scheme (RGESS) to be routed through mutual funds (MFs). Though there is no clarity yet on how the scheme would operate to attract retail investors into the equity markets, industry executives and experts say there is no other vehicle best suited for the proposed initiative except MFs, provided the product is structured well.

But, would mutual fund investments qualify for the scheme, ask market experts. “Often, new investors would prefer to come through the MF route as they may have little knowledge about investing directly in equity markets,” says Rajiv Bajaj, managing director of Bajaj Capital.

In his Budget speech the finance minister made his intentions clear that he wanted to encourage the flow of savings into financial instruments and improve depth of the domestic equity markets. He proposed to introduce RGESS, which would allow new retail investors investing up to Rs 50,000 directly in equities, an income tax deduction of 50 per cent. The scheme would have a lock-in period of three years. Investors with annual income of below Rs 10 lakh would be eligible to reap the benefits of the scheme.

But there are problem areas too, in the proposal. “Who is a new retail investor, and why investments have to be directly in equities?” asks Dhruva Chatterji, senior research analyst at Morningstar India.

Dhirendra Kumar, chief executive officer (CEO) of Value Research, says, “The proposal of RGESS has huge potential to attract funds from retail investors. But it could prove disastrous if new investors put in money directly into equities because of their inexperience. I hope that details emerge, mutual funds are made part of it.”

According to experts, the country’s stock markets could get up to Rs 50,000 crore of retail inflows per annum of long-term funds, which would exceed the funds brought in by foreign investors. The money would not only boost India’s capital markets, but also bring stability as these funds will be stickier.

Sanjay Sachdev, CEO of Tata Mutual Fund, agrees, “If MFs are made vehicles for RGESS, it will be easier and faster as the industry has an established system. This could be a variant of the existing equity-linked saving schemes (ELSS).” There are many takers for this suggestion. In post-Budget conversations with Business Standard, industry chief executives said government has chosen a good time for this product.

If further guidelines favour the MF industry as a vehicle, fund houses would roll out appropriate products, (such as Tata Mutual Fund RGESS or ICICI MF RGESS), they added. With the Direct Taxes Code (DTC) set to come into play soon, ELSS will lose its edge as tax saving havens. “Operationally, it is possible to have the existing ELSS under RGESS,” says Nimesh Shah, CEO of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund. Moreover, if MFs are made vehicles for the new scheme, investors would have a variety of options to chose from out of the existing ELSS, depending on the schemes’ track record.

Equity mutual funds have the largest investor base in terms of folios. As per statistics from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), in January overall equity folios stood at 38.4 million.

Of this, ELSS constitured over eight million.

According to industry officials, since there is a substantial investor-base in ELSS, the proposed scheme should be moulded in a way that existing retail investors in tax-saving equity products can continue under a new name of RGESS.

Media - In brief hiatus; sector update ::Edelweiss PDF link

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·       2011 was a mixed year for Media & Entertainment (M&E) industry : 1st half high growth, 2nd half challenging
·       As per Pitch Madison, ad industry grew just 8% in 2011 compared to projection of 17%
·       Adopting a cautious approach, Pitch Madison expects ad growth of just 9% in 2012
·       Advertisers will remain guarded in H1CY12 and there will be revival in ad spends in H2CY12

The run up to the budget was mixed with markets looking forward to reforms:: CSEC Research

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The run up to the budget was mixed with markets looking forward to reforms. However, markets were left stranded with little coming by way of reforms. Expectations of a hike in indirect taxes were met while a whole gamut of services was brought under the tax net in one swoop. Personal taxes slabs were raised leaving more income in the hands of the common man, albeit marginal. The governments teetered on Direct taxes code by failing to announce a timeline for its implementation. The government reduced targets on disinvestment proceeds to Rs 300bn crore which appear more realistic than the Rs 400bn crore for the previous year; however, even this appears unassailable unless a deal is worked out with the Anil Agarwal group that has offered Rs 170 bn for the Government’s stake in Hindustan Zinc and Bharat Aluminium.

Outlook

The much talked about rate cut is unlikely to come in the upcoming RBI’s policy meet. The RBI is likely to follow inflation rather lead it, given uncertainty in global commodity prices, forex and the loop effects of the hike in excise duty and service taxes. Lack of reforms is yet another dampener, however, various measures in thermal power projects is likely to augur for independent power producers.

With the Sensex at 13 times FY 13 earnings, markets from a valuation standpoint remain reasonable. Crude oil prices, inflationary pressure from hikes in excise duty and forex volatility are amongst the headwinds that the markets face.  Given reasonable valuations and possibility of rate reductions in the later part of the year, we recommend investors to focus on companies with strong balance sheets. Consumer oriented growth stocks can be looked at from an earnings growth point of view.

Regards,
CSEC Research

MF agents laugh more on the way to the bank (Business Standard)

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Having been battered by life-changing regulatory moves for over a couple of years now, mutual fund distributors finally have something to smile about. The finance minister has given a significant relief by exempting their services from the ambit of service tax of 12 per cent.

Poverty data is faulty, admits planning commission (HT)

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The day BJP and CPI(M) accused the government of coming out with fraudulent poverty figures, the planning commission admitted of a serious flaw in the National Sample Survey data and national accounts which led to pegging the poverty line at Rs 28 per capita daily consumption in cities.


 
Plan panel deputy chairperson Montek Singh Ahluwalia said the discrepancy between the consumer survey, on whose basis the poverty number are derived, and national accounts was a serious statistical problem.
 
The commission on Monday had released poverty data based on the 66th round of the National Sample Survey (2009-10) data on household consumer expenditure survey. The national accounts, which provide data for national income, is prepared by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO).
 
According to new estimate, number of poor in India were 29.8% in 2009-10, down from 37.2% in 2004-05. These were based on the daily per capita consumption of Rs 28 in urban cities and Rs 22 in rural areas in 2009-10. The same for June 2011 would be Rs 32.2 for urban areas and Rs 25.3 for rural areas.
 
“There is not much difference in what we told the Supreme Court last year and the figures released on Monday,” Ahluwalia said, shunning the criticism in section of media that the panel has fudged poverty norms.
 
He also said that the decline in poverty during the UPA government rule was twice than in the previous 11 years. This came in wake of the opposition parties accused the panel of fudging with poverty line to show a huge decline. “Can finance minister and Prime Minister survive on Rs 28 a day?” asked BJP’s S S Ahluwalia.
 
If the positive trend continues, the panel was confident of eradicating poverty in the next 20 years. “Anyone can calculate by when poverty will vanish as per the present methodology,” said panel member Saumitra Chaudhari, in-charge of estimating poverty. But, it may not happen as the panel would be revising methodology to including the changing consumption pattern.
 
The additional data released by the panel on Tuesday showed the number of poorest of poor has increased and the gap between the richest and poorest was increasing. “The bottom 15 % has not benefited from inclusive growth,” Chaudhari said. “There is a need to re-look at how the policies are being implemented.”
 
The panel also said gender divide in poverty had increased and it was higher in urban areas as compared to rural India. “Around the world urban inequality is higher,” Ahluwalia said. 

BSE, Bulk deals, 20/3/2012

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Deal DateScrip CodeCompanyClient NameDeal Type *QuantityPrice **
20/3/2012530513Accurate TransVARSHA B SHAHS1804644.76
20/3/2012503675Agarwal HoldUMA CANPIPES PRIVATE LIMITEDB50000204.96
20/3/2012524075Albert David-$LOK PRAKASHAN LIMITEDB2900084.00
20/3/2012524075Albert David-$RAVIRAJ DEVELOPERS LIMITEDS2895084.00
20/3/2012531720Alpha GraphicAVENUE DEALESRS PVT.LTD.B17558927.00
20/3/2012531560Aroma EnterprisesVICKY RAJESH JHAVERIB956009.62

BSE, Bulk deals, 20/3/2012

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Deal DateScrip CodeCompanyClient NameDeal Type *QuantityPrice **
20/3/2012530513Accurate TransVARSHA B SHAHS1804644.76
20/3/2012503675Agarwal HoldUMA CANPIPES PRIVATE LIMITEDB50000204.96
20/3/2012524075Albert David-$LOK PRAKASHAN LIMITEDB2900084.00
20/3/2012524075Albert David-$RAVIRAJ DEVELOPERS LIMITEDS2895084.00
20/3/2012531720Alpha GraphicAVENUE DEALESRS PVT.LTD.B17558927.00
20/3/2012531560Aroma EnterprisesVICKY RAJESH JHAVERIB956009.62

20/3/12: Categories Turnover (BSE) (Rs. crore) Clients NRI Proprietary Trade Data

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Categories Turnover (BSE)

(Rs. crore)
ClientsNRIProprietary
Trade DateBuySalesNetBuySalesNetBuySalesNet
20/3/121,791.551,778.7412.810.750.650.10579.29552.0627.23
19/3/121,617.441,511.14106.301.151.51-0.36520.01554.87-34.86
16/3/122,249.492,197.7051.790.970.530.44858.27897.99-39.73
Mar , 1225,092.6525,073.7118.9421.8320.831.008,767.238,701.0666.16
Since 1/1/12104,165.70105,862.66-1,696.9765.5970.73-5.1337,876.1336,763.941,112.19

  Disclaimer:
  • DII and FII turnover is consolidated information of BSE and NSE.
  • BSE data is compiled on the basis of marking of 'client type' while executing orders on BOLT-TWS in equity segment.
  • NSE Data has been compiled on the basis of trading codes entered by the trading members at the time of order entry and corresponding client category classification provided by the trading members as part of unique client code details upload.
  • NRI - Non Resident Indians
  • FII - Foreign Institutional Investors
  • DII -Domestic Institutional Investors (Includes Bank, DFIs, Insurance, New Pension Scheme and MF).

Poverty line at 28.65: Planning Commission faces criticism for figures (ET)

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 Planning Commission today faced criticism inside and outside Parliament for its description of poor and resultant fall in people below the poverty line with Opposition parties saying it was making a "dishonest" attempt to conceal reality through "fraudulent" estimates.

BJP hit out at the government and the Planning panel for the conclusion that the number of people living below the poverty line has fallen by seven per cent, alleging that the Manmohan Singh administration appeared to be setting a "starvation line".

Gilts unchanged amidst low volumes : Edelweiss

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Gilts unchanged amidst low volumes
The total traded volume in G-Secs today was abysmally low at INR 55bn as position
building was avoided in the run-up to the fiscal year end. As a result, yields were largely
unchanged even though the underlying sentiment is negative with risk of FY13 fiscal
slippage and intense borrowing. This trend could continue till the year end, given that
there is no new paper supply hitting the market in the next 2 weeks and year end position
management might prevent yields from rising significantly.
Though the 10-Y benchmark moved in a range of 5bps, it eventually ended at the
previous day's close of 8.42%. The above mentioned year end support might have helped
the pullback from the day's high of 8.45%. The post-budget expectation of yields heading
above 8.50% is likely to materialize only in April with the onset of the FY13 bond sale
program.
The OIS market also suffered from a lackluster session as the 1Y OIS ended flat at 8.20-
8.26% and the 5-Y swap was also unchanged at 7.59-7.65%.
Non-SLR Market
Andhra Bank placed 1Y CD worth INR 8.65bn @ 10.75%. SBP placed 3M CD worth INR 5bn
@ 11.35%. UCO Bank placed same tenor @ 11.50% for INR 18bn.
Money Market
The liquidity scenario still looks strained as the LAF borrowing continues at high levels of INR
1.6tn. Call rates on the other hand eased to a WAR of 8.95% after Friday’s jump to 9.06%.

20/3/12: DII trading activity on BSE and NSE on Capital Market Segment.

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DII trading activity on BSE and NSE on Capital Market Segment.
DII trading activity on BSE and NSE on Capital Market Segment(In Rs.Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSale ValueNet Value
DII20/3/12994.501,114.85-120.35


  • DII trading data across BSE and NSE collated on the basis of trades executed today by Banks, DFIs,Insurance and MFs on BSE and NSE.
  • This trade data is provisional and subject to change, inter-alia, on account of custodial confirmation process, modifications etc.

Gold drops as economic optimism boosts dollar; India's jewellery strike cuts demand (ET)

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 Gold fell on Tuesday, hurt by strength in the dollar which profited from the growing view in the market that the US economy is on a firmer footing, ending a three-day rally in the bullion price.

The dollar benefited from wariness in the market stemming from talks between Italy's government and unions on the reforms needed to turn around the euro zone's third largest economy, which kept the euro under pressure and dented equities.

NRIs with unexplained wealth may land in income tax trouble (ET)

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The government today said the Income Tax Department will "bother" only those non-resident Indians who have unexplained funds.

"If any money is found to be of some person and then it comes to our knowledge, then if it is legitimately explained he doesn't have to bother, but if it is unexplained then we will have to bother and we will bother," CBDT Chairman Laxman Das said at an interactive session with Ficci members here.

Finance Secretary R S Gujral, who was chairing the session, said there is no intention that NRIs should not return or should not bring back their assets to the country.

"I do not think there is any doubt. Obviously, if they have earned money and they are not required to file a return in India and they have assets abroad, they are not the undisclosed assets...," he added.

The two Finance Ministry officials were replying to a query on the impact of the proposed amendment to the Income Tax Act.

But, Gujral said, if a person is employed as a clerk abroad and comes back after two years with $ 1 billion in pocket, the person would have to explain the amount.

"But generally it is very clear that there is no such intention. India wants to attract NRI investment, NRI remittances and we welcome the NRIs even coming back," Gujral added.

Regarding reassessment of income in relation to any asset located outside India, the government in Budget, has proposed reopening of assessments of up to 16 years, against six years at present.

Besides, it also plans to make it compulsory reporting requirement in case of assets held abroad.

"The time limit of six years is not sufficient in cases where assets are located outside India because gathering information regarding such assets takes much more time on account of additional procedures and laws of foreign jurisdictions," the Budget Memorandum had said.

"The 16-year thing is an enabling provision where it is found that... the person whether NRI or anybody is not able to explain as to how he acquired and whether taxes has been paid on those money, whether in India or abroad. It is never the government's purpose to trouble people who are explaining money abroad," Das said.

Experts said that such a move could create unnecessary reporting requirements and harassment for NRIs who have returned to India after staying abroad for long.

20/3/12: FII trading activity on BSE and NSE on Capital Market Segment

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FII trading activity on BSE and NSE on Capital Market Segment

FII trading activity on BSE and NSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSale ValueNet Value
FII20/3/122,110.501,999.41111.09

  Disclaimer:
  • FII trading data across BSE and NSE collated on the basis of trades executed today by FIIs on BSE and NSE.
  • This trade data is provisional and subject to change, inter-alia, on account of custodial confirmation process, modifications etc

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 20-Mar-2012

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 20-Mar-2012 
 BUYSELLOPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY 
 No. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in Crores 
INDEX FUTURES601281572.64672791765.9661273016178.74-193.32
INDEX OPTIONS82474021777.0679737321128.82185565048938.10648.24
STOCK FUTURES818122445.78736522205.24104559829968.83240.54
STOCK OPTIONS18638536.0418716542.21575631627.00-6.17
      Total689.29


-- 

NSE, Bulk deals, 20-Mar-2012

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DateSymbolSecurity NameClient NameBuy / SellQuantity TradedTrade Price /
Wght. Avg.
Price
Remarks
20-Mar-2012ATLASCYCLEAtlas Cycles (Haryana) LtCHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS P. LTDBUY19,776433.37-
20-Mar-2012ATLASCYCLEAtlas Cycles (Haryana) LtCHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS P. LTDSELL19,776434.41-
20-Mar-2012ATLASCYCLEAtlas Cycles (Haryana) LtCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.BUY1,29,134432.75-
20-Mar-2012ATLASCYCLEAtlas Cycles (Haryana) LtCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.SELL1,30,147433.56-
20-Mar-2012ATLASCYCLEAtlas Cycles (Haryana) LtDINESH MUNJAL(HUF)BUY19,079435.45-
20-Mar-2012ATLASCYCLEAtlas Cycles (Haryana) LtDINESH MUNJAL(HUF)SELL19,604436.34-
20-Mar-2012ATLASCYCLEAtlas Cycles (Haryana) LtINDUS PORTFOLIO (P) LTDBUY22,504434.47-
20-Mar-2012ATLASCYCLEAtlas Cycles (Haryana) LtINDUS PORTFOLIO (P) LTDSELL22,504434.65-
20-Mar-2012ATLASCYCLEAtlas Cycles (Haryana) LtMANSUKH SECURITIES & FINANCE LIMITEDBUY24,851429.40-
20-Mar-2012ATLASCYCLEAtlas Cycles (Haryana) LtMANSUKH SECURITIES & FINANCE LIMITEDSELL24,851430.15-
20-Mar-2012ATLASCYCLEAtlas Cycles (Haryana) LtNARAYANA KURUP KBUY21,521433.29-
20-Mar-2012ATLASCYCLEAtlas Cycles (Haryana) LtNARAYANA KURUP KSELL21,521433.28-
20-Mar-2012ATLASCYCLEAtlas Cycles (Haryana) LtSHREE AERAN MARKETING PVT. LTD.BUY32,767431.58-
20-Mar-2012ATLASCYCLEAtlas Cycles (Haryana) LtSHREE AERAN MARKETING PVT. LTD.SELL32,767432.36-
20-Mar-2012KARURVYSYAKarur Vysya Bank LtdGOLDMAN SACHS INVESTMENTS MAURITIUS I LTDBUY9,00,834375.00-
20-Mar-2012MOTOGENFINMotor & Gen Fin LtdGROSVENOR ESTATE PVT LTDSELL2,00,00034.71-
20-Mar-2012MOTOGENFINMotor & Gen Fin LtdMGF ESTATES PVT. LTDBUY2,06,06934.71-
20-Mar-2012PERIATEAPeria Karamalai TeaBIKEWIN TRADING PVT LTDSELL26,914158.37-
20-Mar-2012PERIATEAPeria Karamalai TeaHARI FINANCE & TRADE (P) LTDSELL33,863169.67-
20-Mar-2012PERIATEAPeria Karamalai TeaMAHARAJA SHREE UMAID MILLS LTDBUY1,11,645162.64-
20-Mar-2012PERIATEAPeria Karamalai TeaPAYAL COMMERCIAL COMPANY LIMITEDSELL50,437160.22-
20-Mar-2012RAJTVRaj Television Network LiSHANMUGASUNDARAM SUBRAMANIANSELL65,000125.00-
20-Mar-2012RKDLRavi Kumar DistilleriesBILPOWER LIMITEDSELL2,00,00012.25-
20-Mar-2012RKDLRavi Kumar DistilleriesFIRST FINANCIAL SERVICES LTDBUY2,00,59012.49-
20-Mar-2012RKDLRavi Kumar DistilleriesSUJATA RAVI NAIRBUY1,30,00012.21-
20-Mar-2012RKDLRavi Kumar DistilleriesSUJATA RAVI NAIRSELL1,25,00012.50-
20-Mar-2012VIKASGLOBVikas GlobalOne LtdHIGH VALUE TRADERS PRIVATE LTDSELL65,00065.97-