02 March 2012

Automobiles, Fertiliser, Oil and Gas, Disinvestments, External Trade, LTRO-2, Bond Vector:: Edel PDF link

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    Auto Sales Update - Cars and trucks steal the show
    Fertiliser - Cabinet approves FY13 NBS rates for non-urea fertilizers
    Oil and Gas - Crude spikes on Iran concerns
    Disinvestments - Cabinet approves PSU buyback
    External Trade - Trade deficit widens on higher crude
    LTRO-2 - Diminishing returns   
    Bond Vector

Update - Insurance :: ShareKhan PDF link


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Insurance     
APE jumps 37.6% YoY in January 2012
Key points 
  • The annual premium equivalent (APE) of the life insurance industry showed a jump of 37.6% year on year (YoY) and 10.4% month on month (MoM). The year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in the APE was mainly contributed by the Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC), which reported a robust growth of 41.3% YoY. The private players also witnessed a rise of 31.5% YoY in their APE. The life insurance sector has started reporting growth on a Y-o-Y basis mainly due to the subsiding of the high base of the previous year (as new regulations were introduced from September 2010 onwards). However, on a year-till-date (YTD) basis (ie April 2011-January 2012), the APE of the industry continued to contract with the private players showing a higher decline (down 22.3% YTD) compared to a 3.9% growth shown by LIC.
  • The market share of the private players declined to 33% levels in January 2012 while that of LIC expanded to 67%. Among the private players, SBI Life's market share decreased to 10.9% from 13.7% in January 2011 while that of Reliance Life declined to 6.1% from 8.4% in January 2011.The market share of HDFC Standard Life Insurance grew to 13.7% from 12.5% in January 2011 whereas that of ICICI Prudential Life Insurance remained stable at 18%. The share of Max New York Life Insurance also grew to 7% as against 6.7% in
    January 2011.
  • In terms of APE growth for January 2012, 14 out of 20 private players posted a decline Y-o-Y with Tata AIG Life Insurance Company showing the highest contraction of 32.8%. ICICI Prudential Life Insurance showed a growth of 53.5% YoY. On a YTD basis, the life insurance industry continued to report a decline in APE as the new unit-linked insurance policy (ULIP) guidelines set in and insurers awaited the clearance from the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (IRDA) for launching new products. Though premium collections will remain healthy in the next two month of the current fiscal (due to seasonality), the overall growth for FY2012 is likely to remain lower than in FY2011.

Click here to read report: Investor's Eye
 

2 March: Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
    Nifty drifted lower by 0.80% on the first day of March continuing its weak trend since the past two weeks. The index opened on a softer note following the weak Global cues and gradually slid lower to briefly break below the 5300 mark. The pullback thereafter was pretty strong in the final hour where it once again failed to hold on to the gains and managed a close at 5339. Price action of the past few days suggests the index is poised to get restricted into a trading range of 5300-5550. Trading volumes were relatively lower and the market breadth was marginally in favour of declines. Momentum oscillators continue to paint a mixed picture due to the choppy price action and hence intraday volatility is likely to be the order of the day. With the bulls attempting to defend the 5300 mark, the index in all likelihood might recover towards 5400 in today’s final session of the week. For the short-term though crucial support and resistance for the index is pegged at 5200 and 5450.
    Barring the Healthcare index (+0.25%), all other sectoral indices ended the day in the red. The prominent losers of the day were Realty (-3.29%), Cap Goods (-1.62%) and Banking (-1.20%) indices. Broader market Mid-cap and Small-cap indexes fared marginally better than their frontline peers ending the day with loss of -0.53% and -0.38% respectively.

    Bullish Setups: PWGR, HPCL, ACEM, CNXBANK, SHRS
    Bearish Setups: ITC, BHEL, LT DLF, TATA, ONGC

Stocks in News :2 March :: Edelweiss

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 Stocks in News
    Sterlite offers INR 160,000-mn for Govt’s stake in Hindustan Zinc & Balco. (ET)
    Development Credit Bank plans to raise over INR 1,500-mn. (ET)
    Tata Communications may bid for UK’s Cable & wireless worldwide. (ET)
    Steel Ministry, Industry discuss plan to increase Import Duty to 5%. (ET)
    HCL Infosystems pips TCS to win Aadhaar’s INR 22,000-mn contract. (ET)
    Dish TV ties up with neighbourhood operators to push Dish TV set-top boxes in cable households, distribute and install connections. (ET)
    Subsidy cut for P&K fertilisers approved (ET)  
    SBI has increased the rate of interest it will offer on ‘unfixed’ deposits to 9% from 8.5%  (DNA)
    Wind turbine maker Suzlon energy its wholly owned subsidiary REpower systems SE had arranged syndicated loan worth INR 49bn (BS)

Update - Power equipment :: ShareKhan PDF link

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SECTOR UPDATE

Power equipment     
NTPC order - BGR shines, BHEL gets fair share, L&T misses yet again
Event: Bids open for NTPC's bulk order; BGR emerges as lowest bidder 
BGR Energy Systems (BGR) has emerged as the lowest bidder (L1) for the supply of supercritical boilers and turbine-generators (TG) respectively for the 7260MW (11x 660MW) National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) power projects. It is likely to get 7 units of boiler orders worth Rs6,500 crore at a realisation of Rs1.4 crore/MW.
  • Here, Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL) is likely to get Rs3,700 crore worth of orders due to favourable NTPC tendering specifications, provided it matches the L1 quotations. 
BHEL (CMP Rs299, Hold) - to get fair share of order 
Power sector reforms and possible levy of import duty to improve competitive environment could result in re-rating of multiples.
The recent few developments/reforms in the power sector seem to be working in favour of BHEL after a spate of bad news in CY2011.
  • Price target revised to Rs328: The above positive developments and resulting containment in overseas competition would augur well for the company. Hence we are slightly increasing the target multiple to 12x (from the earlier 10x). Our revised price target stands at Rs328 (roll-over of the target multiple on average of FY2013 and FY2014 earnings estimate). We maintain our Hold rating on the stock.
L&T (CMP Rs1,278, Buy) yet to open its account with NTPC
  • L&T appears to have lost out to BGR and BHEL in its price bid in the super-critical bulk tender order from NTPC. 
  • We feel that this was in accordance with the company's focus on the sustenance of healthy margins. The company has been earlier disqualified in the first round of 11x660MW equipment bid on technical ground. In the 9x800MW segment the company emerged as L2; the order was given to the joint venture of JSW Energy with Toshiba. 
  • L&T currently has a well-diversified order book of Rs145,768 crore in M9FY2012, of which only 29% is contributed by the power sector. Hence, the shortfall in this sector could partly be compensated by contributions from other sectors. At the current market price the stock is trading at 11.9x its FY2014 consolidated earnings estimate. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock on its diversified business exposure and attractive valuations.


Click here to read report: Investor's Eye
 

When will MCSX IPO shares get alloted? likely March 5

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When will  MCSX IPO shares get alloted? likely March 5



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MCX IPO: Shares allocation (tentative) for retail category


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MCX IPO: How many shares should retail category expect to get?




External Trade - Trade deficit widens on higher crude:: Edelweiss (PDF link)

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Trade deficit widened to ~USD14.8bn in January 2012 compared to ~USD12.7bn in December 2011 on account of higher crude imports as non-oil trade deficit remained stable at USD2.5bn. Notably, sequential momentum in both imports and exports has posted a healthy uptick in the past two-three months which is consistent with the recent improvement in industrial activity (e.g., IIP, PMI etc.). In April-January FY12, trade deficit has already clocked ~USD148bn versus ~USD106bn in the corresponding period last year. Going forward, monthly trade  deficit is expected to be around current levels, which means that FY12 trade deficit will likely be in the range of ~USD175-180bn.

Derivatives Report :: 2 March: Angel Broking (pdf link)

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Technical Report:: 2 March: Angel Broking (pdf link)

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Market Outlook :: 2 March: Angel Broking (pdf link)

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Market Summary:: 2 March: Angel Broking (pdf link)

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Market Summary

Support placed at 5200-5225 levels ::Emkay PDF link

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Support placed at 5200-5225 levels


View: Despite the fact that most indicators continue to suggest cautious sentiment prevailing, we believe strong support for the index is placed at around the 5200 levels.  We suggest taking profits in short positions on any decline to 5200-5225 levels.
Open interest in Nifty March futures declined to 25.58 million shares from 26.04 million shares. FIIs data indicates closure of long positions being observed. FIIs remained net sellers to the tune of Rs3.52 billion along with a decrease of around 2.66% shares in open interest. Interestingly, the premium of Nifty March futures over Nifty spot has started declining. Currently, the premium stands at 51 points (95.51 basis points) as against 54 points (100.83 basis points) observed in the penultimate session. Historically, such a large premium has resulted in sharp corrections.
Nifty put call ratio of open interest declined sharply to 1.22 levels from 1.31 levels. The level stands lowest since February, 2012. It has been observed that the Nifty has a direct correlation with the ratio. Like in the previous calendar year, the ratio is unable to sustain above higher levels of 1.35-1.45.  Any reversals from those levels have been followed by selling in the Nifty.
NSE VIX continues to move northwards. Currently, the volatility index stands at 27.67%, highest level in the current calendar year. The current level stands 0.94 standard deviation higher than 60-day average of 25.36%. Historically, the NSE VIX tends to make a high at around the 2 standard deviation. With 60-day standard deviation at 2.45%, an up move till 30%-30.50% cannot be ruled out. The increase in NSE VIX is largely attributed to the fact that outcome of key events are expected in March series.
Among Nifty March put options, maximum open interest is accumulated at 5200 strike with an open interest of 7.43 million shares (Rs39.25 billion). The prevalence of significant open interest at a particular strike suggests strong support prevailing at lower levels.

Click here to read report: Emkay Alternate Intelligence
Content:

Nifty Futures Open Interest Change
Top 10 Long Dated Options by Volumes
Ratio – Stock Volatility Vs Nifty Volatility
Sectoral Futures Open Interest Change
Select Global Volatility
Shareholdings Pledged/Revoked
Stock-wise Futures Open Interest Change
Nifty Volatility (Comparison of IV, HV, VIX)
Insider Trades
Nifty Options Accumulation Pattern
Nifty Intraday Volatility
Nifty Put-Call Ratio of Open Interest
Nifty Options Open Interest Change
Nifty Volatility Over Period
Dividend Watch
Top 15 Nifty Options by Volumes
Institutional Flows in Equity Segment
Rollover
Top 50 Stock Options by Volumes
FIIs Flows in Derivatives Segment



Thanks & Regards,
Emkay Equity Advisory

Update - Automobiles :: ShareKhan PDF link


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SECTOR UPDATE
Automobiles     
On a bumpy road
Maruti Suzuki - The show-stopper in Feb 2012 
Maruti Suzuki (Maruti) surprised positively with domestic sales breaching the 1 lakh unit mark yet again in February 2012. The Swift and the recently launched compact Dzire evoked a good response from the market leading to healthy sales. An improvement was also witnessed in the multi purpose vehicle (MPV) segment which had been under pressure a couple of months ago.
Hard landing in tractors; worst performance in a seasonally high month
A slowdown was witnessed in the tractors segment with Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) reporting a drop in volumes by 21% year on year (YoY) in February 2012. The growth in the tractor industry for April 2011-January 2012 has slipped to 15.5% YoY from a growth of 19.8% YoY witnessed in the April 2011-October 2011 period. Going by the market leader M&M's tractor numbers in February 2012, the year till date (YTD) growth (April 2011-February 2012) is estimated to further slip to 12-13%. 
Higher interest rates and an increase in input costs for farmers are the key reasons attributable to a slow down in the growth of tractor sales. Overall, the industry is estimated to grow by about 10% in FY2012, which is about half the growth rate witnessed in H1FY2012.
LCVs shine; continue to outperform other auto segmentsThe light commercial vehicle (LCV) segment has been the star performer showing no signs of a slowdown. The hub and spoke model adopted in the logistics industry has fuelled demand for LCVs towards last mile connectivity. LCVs continue to grow in excess of 25% YoY, growing 26.3% YTD in the domestic market.
Moderation seen in two-wheelersGoing by TVS Motors' and Hero MotoCorp's February 2012 volumes; two-wheelers are also witnessing a moderation in growth. Reports indicate higher dealer inventory with no waiting period. While the super bike segment is expected to grow well on a small base, the entry and executive segments are likely to grow in single digits. For Bajaj Auto, we expect an 8.5% YoY growth in February 2012 volumes.
No pre-budget buying seen; consensus building for rollback of excise concessions Given a general perception of a higher duty on automobiles in union budgets, we did not see any major advancement in buying. There is an impending risk that overall sentiments may deteriorate further if there is a rollback of excise from 10% to 12% and if there's an additional duty levied on diesel vehicles.



Click here to read report: Investor's Eye
 

BSE, Bulk deals, 2/3/2012

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Deal DateScrip CodeCompanyClient NameDeal Type *QuantityPrice **
2/3/2012531560Aroma EnterprisesPARULBEN DEVJIBHAI PATELS280008.24
2/3/2012532435Asia HR TechSABOO PRADEEPB500007.32
2/3/2012532435Asia HR TechNITA KAPIL BHUPATANIS660007.32
2/3/2012530355Asian OilfieldPASHA FINANCE PVT. LTD.B10000034.40
2/3/2012530355Asian OilfieldMATANGI TRADERS & INVESTORS PVT. LTD.S10000034.40
2/3/2012523319Balmer LawrRUCHIT BHARAT PATELS82899503.79
2/3/2012531591Bampsl SecPOKHRIYAL INFIN PRIVATE LTD.B20000001.69
2/3/2012531591Bampsl SecPOKHRIYAL INFIN PRIVATE LTD.S21444041.73
2/3/2012511672Clarus FinanceAKSHAYA J M B PROPERTIES PVT LTDB14400038.60
2/3/2012511672Clarus FinanceANMOL FINPRO PRIVATE LIMITEDS9000038.60
2/3/2012511710Cubical FinHILL QUEEN INVESTMENT (P) LTDB11400042.87
2/3/2012511710Cubical FinASHWANI KUMAR GUPTAS10000042.40

NSE, Bulk deals, 02-Mar-2012

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DateSymbolSecurity NameClient NameBuy / SellQuantity TradedTrade Price /
Wght. Avg.
Price
Remarks
02-Mar-2012EIDPARRYEID Parry Ltd.RELIANCE MUTUAL FUNDSELL10,39,859196.00-
02-Mar-2012FEDDERLOYDFedders Lloyds CorporatioMORGAN STANLEY MAURITIUS COMPANY LIMITEDSELL8,00,00055.00-
02-Mar-2012FEDDERLOYDFedders Lloyds CorporatioRAJUL ESTATE PRIVATE LIMITEDBUY2,07,53355.00-
02-Mar-2012FEDDERLOYDFedders Lloyds CorporatioZENITH IMPEX PRIVATE LIMITEDBUY4,80,00055.00-
02-Mar-2012GOENKAGoenka Diamond&Jewels LtdKRISHNA TRADE & COMMERCE PVT. LTDBUY2,77,77057.00-
02-Mar-2012HGSHinduja Global Sols LtdAASIA CORPORATIONBUY4,00,000313.50-
02-Mar-2012HGSHinduja Global Sols LtdHINDUJA ESTATE DEVELOPERSSELL4,00,000313.50-
02-Mar-2012KITPLYINDKitply Industries LtdJHUMARMAL RAJENDRA KUMAR HUFSELL2,45,7353.35-
02-Mar-2012KITPLYINDKitply Industries LtdVINOD DUGARBUY3,73,7553.31-
02-Mar-2012PRAENGPrajay Engineers SyndicatCLSA (MAURITIUS) LIMITEDBUY53,36,1349.50-
02-Mar-2012PRAENGPrajay Engineers SyndicatMERLIN SECURITIES LIMITEDSELL53,36,1349.50-
02-Mar-2012RANKLINRanklin Solutions LimitedRAGHU CHEKKASELL37,0009.50-