28 Feb: Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)

It was a bad start to the trading week for the Indian markets as the bears attacked with a swift 2.73% cut. As a result Nifty has dropped below the 5300 mark as well as the 21 day EMA at 5353 and threatening to make lower lows. The index opened mildly in the positive where it was met with selling continuing from the previous week and the sellers dragged it lower every hour to close near the low of the day. It is now very close to re-testing the 13-month trend line break earlier in January at 5235 and even poses a risk of breaking lower. Although trading volumes were on the lower side, the breath was extremely negative with an A/D ratio of 1:6.5, indicative of the broad-based rout. Momentum oscillators on the hourly chart are extremely oversold (RSI at 20), and the daily oscillators maintain their bearish stance. There is an intermediate term bullish development in the form of a ‘Golden Cross’ i.e., the 50 day EMA crosses above 200 day EMA at 5179. Since the index has pierced below the 21 DEMA at 5353, expect Nifty to re-test the trend line support at 5235 and exhibit a pullback rally higher. In case of further weakness, the fall is likely to extend towards the 200 DMA of 5170. It will be prudent to reduce trading shorts on decline and possibly look at opening some longs via index options or selective stock picking. Barring the defensive buying in FMCG index (+0.29%), all other sectoral indices ended the day in the red. Among the top losers of the day were Realty (-5.29%), Metals (-4.86%) and Power (-3.97%) stocks. The broader markets were worse off than their frontline counterparts as the Mid-cap and Small-cap indices lost 3.02% and 3.26% respectively.

 Bullish Setups: ITC, INFY, PWGR, HPCL, ACEM

Bearish Setups: TATA, SESA, AXSB, UNBK, HDFCB

  

Govt approves $2.5 bn ONGC share auction, price may be set at Rs 290 a share (ET)

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India on Tuesday approved selling a 5 percent equity stake in state-run Oil and Natural Gas Corp through a share auction, Oil Minister S Jaipal Reddy said, reviving the government's faltering divestment programme. The share sale could raise as much as 121 billion rupees ($2.5 billion) at ONGC's closing price of 283.40 rupees a share on Tuesday. The shares closed 0.8 percent higher in a firm Mumbai market ahead of the announcement. "The decision is to go in for sale of shares. Now the notice needs to be given to the stock exchange," Reddy told reporters after a meeting of a panel of ministers. "The details can be divulged only after the notice is sent to the stock exchange." He said the panel had decided on a floor price but did not elaborate. The auction will be held in a couple of days, he said. The government had earlier planned to sell ONGC shares through a public offering but that plan was scrapped last October after tepid response from investors amid weak equity markets. India's stock market posted its first annual fall in three years in 2011, losing nearly 25 percent. Shares in ONGC, the second-largest listed firm in India by market value, fell 20 percent in the same period. New Delhi is widely expected to miss by a long chalk its deficit target of 4.6 percent of GDP for the current fiscal year ending March, partly due to its inability to meet the budget target for more than $8.1 billion in state company share sales. So far this fiscal year, the government has only raised about $250 million. The government will miss its share sale target for this fiscal year, Divestment Secretary Haleem Khan said earlier this month. Indian companies raised less than $10 billion through share sales last year, down from about $23 billion in 2010, according to Thomson Reuters data. The Indian markets regulator last month allowed shareholders of the country's top 100 companies by market value to raise funds by auctioning their stakes through stock exchanges, helping avoid the time-consuming public offer route.

Sesa Goa – Sterlite proposed merger ::ICICI Securities (pdf link)

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http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_Metals_EventUpdate.pdf


H u g e   d e b t   b u r d e n   o n   p r o p o s e d   n e w  e n t i t y…
Sterlite Industries, Sesa Goa and Vedanta Resources Plc have
recommended the merger of Sesa Goa and Sterlite and the proposed
consolidation and simplification of the group structure. According to the
transaction, initially there would be a merger of Sterlite into Sesa Goa,
wherein three Sesa Goa shares would be issued for every five existing
Sterlite shares. Then, Vedanta Aluminium (VAL) and Madras Aluminium
(Malco) will be 100% consolidated into Sesa Sterlite. After this, there
would be a transfer of Vedanta's direct holding of 38.8% in Cairn India
to Sesa Goa, together with the associated debt of $5.9 billion, at cost.
Post the transfer, Sesa Sterlite will have a 58.9% shareholding in Cairn
India. This deal is subject to approval by various Indian and UK
regulatory bodies.

Grey market premium, Feb 28 :MCX IPO

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Grey market premium :MCX IPO

Price Band MCX IPO: Rs 860 to Rs 1,032

 Latest GMP MCX ipo Rs 350- Rs 360
 Kostak Buyer of Rs 3,000



Click here to get tentative MCX IPO Share allocation for retail investor 

BSE, Bulk deals, 28/2/2012

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Deal Date	Scrip Code	Company	Client Name	Deal Type *	Quantity	Price **
28/2/2012	533296	Agre Developers	VIKASH SOMANI SECURITIES PRIVATE LTD	B	125000	34.75
28/2/2012	533296	Agre Developers	LAMBODAR TRADERS	B	275000	34.75
28/2/2012	533296	Agre Developers	RATNABALI CAPITAL MARKETS LIMITED	S	400000	34.75
28/2/2012	531678	Anand Credit	SHAH DAKSHA PRAVINCHANDRA	S	58783	2.50
28/2/2012	531560	Aroma Enterprises	ADROIT TRADELINK PRIVATE LIMITED	S	40000	8.44

NSE, Bulk deals, 28-Feb-2012

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Date	Symbol	Security Name	Client Name	Buy / Sell	Quantity Traded	Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price	Remarks
28-Feb-2012	CREWBOS	Crew B.O.S. Products Limi	MEHROTRA LAXMI NATH	SELL	89,278	34.14	-
28-Feb-2012	KALINDEE	Kalindee Rail Nirman (Eng	KSHITIJ-PORTFOLIO-PVT.-LTD.	BUY	87,778	113.92	-
28-Feb-2012	KALINDEE	Kalindee Rail Nirman (Eng	KSHITIJ-PORTFOLIO-PVT.-LTD.	SELL	37,778	115.47	-
28-Feb-2012	KALINDEE	Kalindee Rail Nirman (Eng	QUADEYE SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITED	BUY	76,925	116.27	-
28-Feb-2012	KALINDEE	Kalindee Rail Nirman (Eng	QUADEYE SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITED	SELL	76,925	116.41	-
28-Feb-2012	KSOILS	K S Oils Limited	CVCIGP II CLIENT ROSEHILL LIMITED - DR A/C	SELL	27,68,460	8.04	-
28-Feb-2012	PGEL	PG Electroplast Ltd	JHAVERI TRADING AND INVESTMENT PVT LTD	SELL	93,500	199.83	-
28-Feb-2012	REFEX	Refex Refrigerants Ltd	WAZIR FINANCIAL SERVICES PVT.LTD.	SELL	1,16,200	6.21	-
28-Feb-2012	RUSHIL	Rushil Decor Limited	JHAVERI TRADING AND INVESTMENT PVT LTD	BUY	83,900	189.67	-

28/2/12: Categories Turnover (BSE) (Rs. crore) Clients NRI Proprietary Trade Data

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Categories Turnover (BSE)

(Rs. crore)
	Clients			NRI			Proprietary
Trade Date	Buy	Sales	Net	Buy	Sales	Net	Buy	Sales	Net
28/2/12	1,825.41	1,851.54	-26.12	0.39	0.49	-0.10	744.48	694.99	49.49
27/2/12	1,671.87	1,561.56	110.31	2.38	3.71	-1.34	689.90	697.17	-7.27
24/2/12	1,917.50	1,866.57	50.92	0.82	0.68	0.14	797.88	773.82	24.06
Feb , 12	41,938.68	43,414.49	-1,475.82	25.38	27.65	-2.27	16,211.39	15,576.62	634.76
Since 1/1/12	76,871.13	78,609.28	-1,738.15	42.31	47.59	-5.29	28,208.13	27,188.88	1,019.25

MCX IPO: Shares allocation for retail category (tentative)

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MCX IPO: How many shares should retail category expect to get?

MCX IPO: Shares allocation for retail category (tentative)

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MCX IPO: How many shares should retail category expect to get?

MCX IPO: Shares allocation for retail category (tentative)

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MCX IPO: How many shares should retail category expect to get?

28/2/12: FII & DII Turnover (BSE + NSE) (Rs. crore)

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FII & DII Turnover (BSE + NSE)

(Rs. crore)
	FII			DII
Trade Date	Buy	Sales	Net	Buy	Sales	Net
28/2/12	2,937.55	2,209.96	727.59	1,283.87	1,871.08	-587.21

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 28-Feb-2012

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 28-Feb-2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	91970	2478.78	56946	1538.43	486662	13192.31	940.35
INDEX OPTIONS	549242	14717.46	512155	13669.75	1462804	39314.30	1047.71
STOCK FUTURES	62625	1842.05	80012	2334.10	948371	27974.36	-492.05
STOCK OPTIONS	25056	709.92	24596	705.64	36501	1067.97	4.28
						Total	1500.29

 

Property: Bengaluru: commercial today, residential tomorrow : Kotak Securities (pdf link)

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http://www.kotaksecurities.com/pdf/indiadaily/indiadaily27022012.pdf

Property
India
Bengaluru: commercial today, residential tomorrow. Bengaluru absorbed 11.7 mn
sq ft of commercial space in CY2011, 33% of the overall absorption of India’s top
seven cities. Strong demand for commercial space augurs well for residential volumes in
coming years. In CY2011 Bengaluru created 0.12 mn (assuming 100 sq ft of space per
person) future customers for residential space, who can potentially consume 70 mn sq
ft (1,200 sq ft per person assuming 50% will buy) of residential space in coming years.
CY2011 residential absorption of 49 mn sq ft was more than any Indian city. BUY
Sobha with a target price of Rs360.

Metals & Mining: Unsustainable rally : Kotak Securities (pdf link)

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http://www.kotaksecurities.com/pdf/indiadaily/indiadaily27022012.pdf

Metals & Mining
India
Unsustainable rally. Steel equities rallied 23-45% over the past three months, against
1-20% in other markets, led by factors such as (1) the likelihood of resumption of ironore supplies from Karnataka; (2) a smart recovery in European steel prices and (3) signs
of domestic recovery. It helps that soft raw material prices and a rebound in steel prices
are likely to result in a strong March 2012 quarter. We recommend a cautious view of
the sector due to (1) expensive valuations, with stocks trading at 6-8X FY2013E EBITDA;
(2) a soft steel market in Asia and (3) overcapacity in the domestic market.

Tele-tracker – February : ICICI Securities, pdf link

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S u b s c r i b e r   a d d i t  i o n   r i s e s   a g a i n …
Subscriber addition rises again…
After increasing last month, subscriber additions in the telecom industry
continued to rise in January 2012.  The industry added 8.4 million GSM
subscribers in January 2012 as against 7.6 million in December 2011. The
total GSM subscribers for the industry stood at 648.1 million.
While net adds for Uninor increase that for Idea decline!
While Uninor saw a rise in its subscriber addition from 2.1 million in
December 2011 to 2.5 million in January 2012, Idea witnessed a steep
decline from 2.4 million to 1.7 million. Uninor had a share in net adds of
29.5%, while Idea managed 20.7%. Idea and Uninor have been sharing
the top two spots since September. While the former has added 9.7
million subscribers since September with a share in net adds of 26.7%,
the latter has added 11.1 million with a share in net adds of 30.5%.
Bharti up; Vodafone stagnant!
While Bharti Airtel reported net adds of 1.3 million in January 2012 as
against 1.0 million in December 2011, Vodafone reported flat net adds of
0.9 million. The share in net adds increased from 12.7% to 15.4% for
Bharti and decreased from 12.0% to 10.1% for Vodafone.
Others
While net adds for BSNL increased from 0.4 million to 0.9 million in
January, Aircel’s net adds increased from 0.7 million to 0.8 million
subscribers. Other operators cumulatively saw their net adds increasing
from 0.1 million to 0.4 million.
Subscribers growing fastest in A and B circles…
The net adds in ‘A’ circles declined from 2.9 million in December 2011 to
2.8 million in January 2012 representing a 2.2% decline. The net adds in
Metros, B Circles and C circles increased from 0.7, 2.9 and 1.1 million to
1.0, 3.4 and 1.2 million subscribers, respectively. Again ‘B’ and ‘A’ circles
commanded the highest share in net adds of 40.8% and 33.0%,
respectively.
Industry Outlook
The recent Supreme Court ruling of cancelling 122 licenses, which were
awarded on or after January 2008 and re auctioning them within four
months, has brought some regulatory clarity in the industry. While Bharti
and RCom are insulated from this ruling, Idea stands to lose 13 of its
licenses in its new circles. We expect Bharti to be a beneficiary of this
ruling as it gives the incumbents a chance to acquire subscribers of the
new operators whose licenses stand cancelled. Also, with higher capex
for acquiring licenses, which stand cancelled, in sight, we expect more
rationality to reflect in the pricing in the industry. The final NTP 2011 has
been in lines with Trai recommendations except that the one-time
spectrum charges would be decided by market prices during auctioning
of licenses freed by the new operators. With huge debt on the books of
players, we expect the bidding to be rational and the auction prices to be
significantly lower than those recommended by Trai based on 3G auction
price. We expect the one-time license fees for spectrums above 6.2 MHz
to be significantly lower for Bharti and Idea. We continue to rate Bharti,
Idea and RCom as BUY, HOLD and SELL, respectively.

Institutional Ownership Trends - Q3FY12- Risk aversion continues ::Edelweiss (PDF Link)

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Post a tepid Q2FY12, overall investment climate remained gloomy in Q3FY12 as well with net institutional inflows of just USD0.2bn (lowest since Q3FY09). Between the peak of the market in Q3FY11 and the trough in Q3FY12, we estimate FIIs have lost more than a third of their equity portfolio in BSE 500, driven down more by declining prices and depreciating rupee, than by actual selling. On sectoral basis, FIIs added more of software and consumer stocks to their portfolio while the DII portfolio has remained fairly stable. On stock specific basis, we estimate FIIs to have added positions in ITC, TCS and Tata Motors while selling ICICI Bank, L&T and Coal India.

THERMAX Cautious Outlook::Edelweiss

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We recently met the top management of Thermax (TMX) to understand
its industry outlook on both captive power & large utility equipment
businesses. Management expects revival across business segments over
the next 12‐15 months, led by expected cut in interest rates, and better
coal and land availability. Overall growth rate could however pick up
gradually, it believes. We maintain ‘HOLD’ on TMX with a TP of INR 462.
Heating & cooling up 8‐9%; market share intact
TMX’s heating and cooling (H&C) segment, comprising 30% of sales, has grown 8‐9%
for 9mFY12, driven largely by stable industrial ordering especially from food processing
and pharma industries. TMX commands 30% market share in heating, while it has more
than 80% market share in the cooling and chillers business, given strong customer
references, robust product portfolio and healthy execution track record. Its heating
business is likely to gain further momentum; given an expected rate cut going ahead.
Ordering slides owing to intensifying competition
TMX has seen a sharp decline in ordering, given a lull in large power plant orders in the
past 6‐8 months due to various macro‐economic challenges and coal and land
availability issues. Boilers segment for 9mFY12 has seen a major slowdown in ordering
and has had an average order inflow run rate of INR 5 bn/quarterly on a steady state
basis (ex‐large plants). This further slowed down to < 1 bn INR in Q3FY12. Management
does not expect to attain the normalized run rate of 5 bn INR in the next 2‐3 quarters,
given expectation of a gradual uptick and higher competition from the likes of BHEL in
the ‘heat recovery & steam generation’ and utility segments.
Outlook and valuations: Cautious; maintain ‘HOLD’
While we like TMX’s diversified business model with strong internal check mechanism
w.r.t. cash flow & client appraisal system, we believe the gradual uptick in captive &
power equipment market and sharp run‐up in recent times limit upsides in the stock.
We, therefore, maintain ‘HOLD/Sector Performer’ rating on TMX. The stock on a
consol basis trades at a P/E of 17.0x & 17.5x its FY12E &FY13E earnings respectively.

Hold Gujarat Gas; Target :Rs 394 : ICICI Securities, pdf link

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B a d   q u a r t e r … o n l y   a n   a b e r r a t i o n …
Gujarat Gas reported a disappointing set of results for Q4CY11 with PAT
declining 70.2% YoY from | 82.5 crore to | 25 crore. Sharp rupee
depreciation, higher gas costs as well as lower than expected realisations
dented profits for the current quarter. However, revenues for Q4CY11
increased 26.8% YoY to | 651 crore mainly on account of higher
realisations to pass on the costs. EBITDA margins declined 2060 bps YoY
and 1340 bps QoQ to 4.6% on account of a decrease in gross margins
from | 5.0 per scm in Q3CY11 to | 2.6 per scm in Q4CY11. The volumes
stood at 315 mmscm (3.4 mmscmd) for Q4CY11. We have revised our
volume estimates to 3.6 mmscmd (1332.4 mmscm) in CY12E factoring in
volume growth at higher LNG prices. The gross margins would improve
as the company has increased sales prices to pass on higher LNG costs to
customers. We estimate a 34.8% and 29.2% increase in revenues and net
profits, respectively in CY12E. We recommend a HOLD rating on the stock
with a price target of | 394.

HDFC Ltd: Management Meet Not: ICICI Securities, pdf link

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G r o w t h   m o m e n t u m   t o   c o n t i n u e …
We met the management of HDFC Ltd (HDFC) to get an insight into its
growth plans, the state of the  housing finance industry and the
company’s current state of affairs. HDFC is the largest mortgage finance
company in India with an outstanding loan book of | 1322 billion as on
Q3FY12 mainly providing loans for the purchase or construction of
residential houses to individuals. It has a pan-India network of 304 outlets
including 74 outlets belonging to its wholly owned distribution company.
Over  a  period  of  time,  it  has  also  emerged as a financial conglomerate
with interests beyond mortgages (as depicted in exhibit 4). It has a track
record of consistent growth in business, strong asset quality, stable
margins, ability to raise funds easily and healthy return ratios, which
enables it to command high valuations.
ƒ Credit growth to continue undeterred
The management has reiterated that  HDFC’s standalone operations will
continue to grow at 15-20% in the next  four  or  five  years  (grew  at  25%
CAGR in the last five years), owing to improved affordability, increasing
urbanisation, favourable demographics, tax incentives and housing
shortage in India. Mortgages as a percentage of GDP in India are just 9%
compared to China, Korea, the US and UK where it is 20%, 26%, 81% and
88%, respectively, indicating huge potential for growth. During 9MFY12,
the loan growth was 21% to | 1322 billion.
ƒ Asset quality to remain solid
As on Q3FY12, HDFC had witnessed the 28th consecutive quarter
wherein percentage of non-performing loans has been lower than the
corresponding quarter in the previous year. GNPA was at 0.82% while
NNPA was nil as on Q3FY12 with PCR of 100%. This has been possible
due to a conservative loan profile wherein maximum loan to value is 80%
(average loan to value is 66%), an experienced appraisal team, cash flow
based lending and strong in-house recovery and follow up team. We
believe HDFC will continue to have a healthy asset quality.
ƒ Well established subsidiaries to add to future profit and valuation
HDFC has three major subsidiaries namely HDFC Standard Life, HDFC
Asset Management and HDFC Ergo  General Insurance, which already
have a strong foothold and market share in the country. Its current stake
in HDFC bank is 23.2%

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation: Weak results overseas : Kotak Securities (pdf link)

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http://www.kotaksecurities.com/pdf/indiadaily/indiadaily27022012.pdf

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC)
Energy
Weak results overseas. OVL reported sharply lower net income of `6.5 bn in 3QFY12
versus `12.8 bn in 2QFY12 led by (1) surprisingly lower crude price realizations,
(2) lower oil sales volumes and (3) higher DD&A expenses (write-off in Nigeria).
However, ONGC’s 9MFY12 consolidated EPS was marginally higher than its FY2011
EPS. We retain our BUY rating on ONGC given (1) inexpensive valuations of 8.1X
FY2013E EPS and (2) 16% potential upside to our revised target price of `330 (`350
previously) based on 9X FY2013E estimates plus the value of investments.

Ranbaxy Labs ::Strong Margins Outlook – Upgrade to Buy ::Emkay

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¾ Q4CY11 Results - Revenues at Rs38bn (up 78% YoY), EBITDA
at Rs16bn (up 550%) and APAT was Rs15bn (up 10x)
¾ Base business was flat in USD terms and grew by 14% in
Rupee terms. Lipitor contributed USD300mn in revenues.
India business grew by 8%
¾ Base business margins expanded by 400bps YoY and 160bps
QoQ to 10% mainly due to Rupee depreciation
¾ Going forward base business is expected to grow by 27% and
margins are expected to expand by 400bps to 12% on back of
strong growth in US and Rupee depreciation benefit
¾ With strengthening of base business, we upgrade stock to
Buy from Accumulate with a target price of Rs504

RBI unlikely to cut CRR by 75 bps: Lakshmi Iyer, Kotak Mutual Fund

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In an interview with ET Now, Lakshmi Iyer , Head of Products & Fixed Income , Kotak Mutual Fund , talks about fiscal deficit and what can be expected from RBI's monetary policy on 15th of March. Excerpts:

ET Now: The deficit in the financial system has climbed to Rs 180,000 crore. How much worse do you believe it is going to get? Do you believe that when refunds from the MCX IPO start coming back, the situation could look a little better?

Lakshmi Iyer: The MCX IPO is one of the problems which have added to the further liquidity issue. However, that is a thing of the last couple of days. We have seen this liquidity go into the negative zone significantly beyond the RBI's comfort zone for quite sometime now.

Our take is that if there is no CRR cut on March 15th, which is the next monetary policy date, this liquidity situation could further aggravate. This is due to the advance tax which is likely to be in the band of about Rs 50,000 to Rs 60,000 crore and that could take the number to anywhere between the Rs 2,20,000 to Rs 2,30,000. So, the combination of CRR cut and open market operations is what would lead to better liquidity numbers from here on.

ET Now: Montek Singh Ahluwalia said that the interest rate is going to be determined predominantly by what is likely to happen to the fiscal deficit. Where do you see interest rates stabilising in light of that and what is your reading of the yield on the 10 year bond?

Lakshmi Iyer: Fiscal deficit is definitely a challenging situation for the government for FY12 and it would continue to remain a predominant factor determining the direction of rates for 2013. This is because the fiscal deficit is funded through government borrowing programme. Moreover, it is subscribed to buy Indian investors predominantly and to a certain extent FIIs.

So, our take is that if the borrowing programme is likely to shoot up for FY13, which is a resultant of the higher fiscal deficit, we could see some more upward pressure on the 10-year benchmark rates from these levels. It is currently trading at about 8.2%. It could back up by about 10 to 15 bps, taking it on to 8.35%. So, we need to wait and watch out. We are likely to see near term volatility at the shorter end because of liquidity and the longer end because of the uncertain fiscal outlook.

ET Now: Do you believe that the RBI could surprise on the upside by coming out with a higher than a 50 bps CRR cut on the 15th? Do you think that RBI will cut CRR by 75 bps or even a 1% cut to address the challenges that the market is facing?

Lakshmi Iyer: I am not sure that is something which the RBI would want to do right now given that it continues to do open market operations. Today the open market operations figures have topped Rs 1 lakh crore and we still have liquidity continuing to be in the deficit mode.

My sense is that 50 bps is what we are likely to see as a CRR cut. RBI may introduce it in graded phases - may be 25 now and 25-25 in three tranches. This will probably total to 75 bps. But at a stretch going into 75 looks a very low probability given the fact that RBI continues to be committed to do OMOs. Today's market situation clearly warrants open market operations.

ET Now: Do you believe that a combination of that plus CRR cut would likely to sooth liquidity and also bring yields to stable levels?

Lakshmi Iyer: The CRR cut will give some respite on liquidity. It will not lead to a significant soothing on the yield curve front because March is a typical period of historical tightness and liquidity and this March will not be an exception. The liquidity situation is likely to ease only towards the last week of March or probably in the first week of April. So, that is when we could see a transition of the current high state of yield curve to a softer yield curve in the first quarter of FY13.

We are not expecting significant respite even if there were to be a CRR cut of 50 bps or 75 bps on March 15th. If the market gets a sense that the current open market operation trend is likely to continue, then we could see some small respite at the longer end of the GSEC yield curve.