Cement Channel Check - North and Central yet to warm up; monthly update ::Edelweiss (pdf link)

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Cement prices in the North remained nearly flat compared to those on January 6, 2012, with certain pockets even feeling downward pressure on back of low demand and continued supply. Hikes in the Central region remained modest with elections impacting demand in UP. Price hike momentum is expected to gather pace in March 2012. However, prices in the East, West and South continued the uptrend with select cities in Gujarat and Maharashtra posting new peaks; we expect prices to remain firm in these regions in the near term.        

January despatches up 10.3% YoY due to low base

Industry despatches for January 2012 at 20.42mt surged 10.3% YoY due to a low base (last year, January despatches were up just 1.7% YoY). MoM, despatches rose 3.2%. YTD, FY12 industry despatch growth now stands at 6.2% YoY.

·       Region-wise summary

        We surveyed 29 cities across India to get a region-wise demand and price trend in both trade and non-trade categories. Key highlights are as follows:   

     

North: Mixed bag

Cement price trend has been a mixed bag in the North. While prices were on an uptick in Gurgaon, they were under pressure in Rajasthan (Jodhpur, Jaipur and Sri Ganganagar) due to low demand and continued supply. Demand in Punjab remained subdued due to state elections, leading to a near flat price trend. Prices remained flat even in the Delhi market.

  

East: Marginal uptick in demand

Prices in the region have increased by ~INR5-20/bag on back of marginal uptick in demand. Dealers expect further hike in prices in coming weeks. 

South: Demand yet to pick up

Though demand is yet to pick up post Pongal festival, prices remained at elated levels, having risen by ~INR5-15/bag. Prices are expected to remain flat over coming weeks.

West:  The uptick continues

With an improving demand trend, cement prices have increased further by ~INR5-31/bag. Nasik registered a price hike of ~INR35-40/bag in the trade segment and of ~INR45-50/bag in the non-trade segment due to supply shortage.

Central India: Election pangs in UP

With demand subdued in UP due to state elections, prices have seen a modest hike of INR 5-10/bag over the month. Price hikes are expected to gather pace only post elections. Prices are nearly flat in Indore while they have seen an uptick in Bhopal.

LINK for report:

Cement Channel Check – North and Central yet to warm up; monthly update

Inflation - Beyond base effect ::Edelweiss (pdf file)

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Inflation in Jan declined markedly to ~6.6% YoY from ~7.5% in Dec, reflecting not just high base effect but receding price pressures as well. Adjusting for seasonality and base effect (MoM SA, 3MMA), the data illustrates an apparent moderation in manufacturing inflation in recent months. Indeed, our re-arranged WPI basket also shows that the demand driven inflation has eased substantially, reaching its historical average. Meanwhile, the imported inflation has also lessened somewhat, but still remains elevated steered by fluctuations in INR and commodity prices.  In the coming months, we see the headline inflation hovering at current levels. The primary articles inflation is likely to normalize to 6%-7% in coming months from unusually low levels at present. This rise, however, will be negated by a further decline in core inflation amidst falling demand pressures and high base effect. As regards monetary policy, such a trend of easing price pressures should give the RBI confidence to move further on its path of reversing the monetary cycle. Therefore, given the tight liquidity deficit conditions, we expect another CRR cut by the central bank in March though as of now, a repo rate cut remains a close call with the RBI keenly watching the incoming data, particularly Q3 GDP, to assess the deterioration in the growth momentum.

Inflation - Beyond base effect

14/2/12:: Categories Turnover (BSE) (Rs. crore) Clients NRI Proprietary Trade Data

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Categories Turnover (BSE)

(Rs. crore)
	Clients			NRI			Proprietary
Trade Date	Buy	Sales	Net	Buy	Sales	Net	Buy	Sales	Net
14/2/12	2,273.18	2,356.80	-83.62	1.16	1.06	0.09	841.19	788.95	52.24
13/2/12	1,957.03	1,950.82	6.21	0.99	0.84	0.14	788.34	730.54	57.80
10/2/12	2,325.70	2,323.75	1.94	2.00	1.13	0.87	892.15	877.74	14.41
Feb , 12	21,746.41	23,359.17	-1,612.76	13.03	11.83	1.20	8,291.71	7,881.65	410.06
Since 1/1/12	56,678.86	58,553.96	-1,875.09	29.96	31.78	-1.82	20,288.45	19,493.90	794.55

BSE, Bulk deals, 14/2/2012

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Deal Date	Scrip Code	Company	Client Name	Deal Type *	Quantity	Price **
14/2/2012	526347	ACCLAIM IND	ARIHANT INVESTMENTS AND SECURITIES	B	45000	28.50
14/2/2012	526347	ACCLAIM IND	MAJESTIC GARMENTS PRIVATE LIMITED	S	50000	28.50
14/2/2012	512355	Anukaran Comm	MOUNTAIN VIEW DEVELOPERS PRIVATE LIMITED	B	50000	49.20
14/2/2012	531448	ARROW SECURI	NIRAV PRAVINCHANDRA SHAH	B	42760	13.70
14/2/2012	531448	ARROW SECURI	AMBUSINH PUNJAJI GOL	S	32360	13.69
14/2/2012	532435	Asia HR Tech	MITESH MAHESH PUJARA	B	50000	5.40
14/2/2012	532435	Asia HR Tech	DINESH KANAYALAL MAKHIJA	B	60000	5.26
14/2/2012	532435	Asia HR Tech	MEENAKSHI MALAYANDI	S	153900	5.35
14/2/2012	512149	Avance Tech	VORA FINANCIAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED	B	3345831	0.16
14/2/2012	512149	Avance Tech	LIFECODE MERCANTILE PRIVATELIMITED	S	5100000	0.16
14/2/2012	509053	Banas Finance	SEJAL JIGNESH SHAH	S	574928	52.90
14/2/2012	531270	Dazzel Conf	YOGESHKUMAR SURESHBHAI PARMAR	B	1674291	4.65
14/2/2012	531252	Farry Inds	ARIHANT INVESTMENTS AND SECURITIES	B	30000	21.90
14/2/2012	531252	Farry Inds	MAJESTIC GARMENTS PRIVATE LIMITED	S	40981	21.91
14/2/2012	512493	Garnet Intl	VINODKUMAR MELARAM AGARWAL	B	25000	90.65

14 Feb: Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)

Indian markets continued the consolidation phase into the sixth day as the Nifty traded in a tight range of 70 points and ended the day near the close with minor gain of 0.16%. The index opened on a flat note, devoid of any cues globally and witnessed some selling in the morning, however by afternoon the losses were recouped to form an intraday high of 5421 which was again unsustainable. After the steep rally in January, the markets have lost momentum to carry the Nifty sustainably above 5400 thus getting into a sideways consolidation, putting traders into quandary about the next move. Trading volumes were relatively lower and the market breadth was absolutely neutral indicating a tough tussle between bulls and bears. Short-term momentum oscillators too have started to roll bearish warning of profit taking activity. The 200 DMA at 5176 and the break of the 14-month trend channel above at 5260 remain the important pivot points for the uptrend that began from the start of the year. We continue to maintain our stance and expect Nifty to break the range (5430-5320) higher for a test of 5500, before prices begin to roll down on profit taking.

 Sectoral trend were mixed with gains coming from Metals (+1.01%), Auto (+0.84%) and Banking (+0.36%). On the losing side were Cap Goods (-0.75%), IT (-0.26%) and FMCG (-0.05%) shares. The Mid-cap and Small-cap indices too closed in the positive with gains of 0.46% and 0.18% respectively.

 Bullish Setups: STLT, ONGC, ACEM, DABUR, PWGR, CRG

 Bearish Setups: BHEL

14/2/12: FII & DII Turnover (BSE + NSE) (Rs. crore)

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FII & DII Turnover (BSE + NSE)

(Rs. crore)
	FII			DII
Trade Date	Buy	Sales	Net	Buy	Sales	Net
14/2/12	2,955.58	1,925.46	1,030.12	1,109.31	1,517.95	-408.64

14 Feb: Stocks in News ::Edelweiss,

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 Stocks in News

Reliance, BP to draw up new field development plan for D6 block. (ET)

TCS secures multi-year deal from Danish Telco. (ET)

HCL Tech manage IT infra for Norway’s Statoil. (ET)

Petrol prices may rise by INr3/litre after UP elections. (ET)

Ministry for hike in minimum road tax to 6%. (ET)

NTPC told to raise output from reallocated coal mines. (ET)

Lakshmi Vilas Bank raises INR 250 cr through bond sale. (ET)

Trai wants FDI cap on tower cos cut to 74%. (ET)

IVRCL bags orders worth INR 1430 cr. (BS)

DLF’s Aman Hotel sale may go into 2012-13. (BS)

ONGC, BHEL stake sale decision is likely to be taken at a meeting of the EGoM on Wednesday. (BS)

Jain Irrigation to cut MIS exposure in south. (DNA)

NSE, Bulk deals, 14-02-2012

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Date Symbol Security Name Client Name Buy / Sell Quantity Traded Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price Remarks 14-Feb-2012 GATI GATI Limited THE INFRASTRUCTURE FUND OF INDIA LLC FDI SELL 5,96,847 38.28 - 14-Feb-2012 NESCO Nesco Limited CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD. BUY 1,01,929 736.00 - 14-Feb-2012 NESCO Nesco Limited CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD. SELL 1,02,832 737.55 - 14-Feb-2012 NESCO Nesco Limited SHREE NAMAN SECURITIES & FINANCE PVT. LTD BUY 72,641 733.81 - 14-Feb-2012 NESCO Nesco Limited SHREE NAMAN SECURITIES & FINANCE PVT. LTD SELL 72,280 735.11 - 14-Feb-2012 RADICO Radico Khaitan Limited RELIANCE LIFE INSURANCE CO.LTD. BUY 25,00,000 111.00 - 14-Feb-2012 RADICO Radico Khaitan Limited VENUS INFOSOFT PVT LTD SELL 10,00,000 111.15 - 14-Feb-2012 RKDL Ravi Kumar Distilleries NANDLAL VYAPAAR PRIVATE LIMITED BUY 2,25,000 16.14 - 14-Feb-2012 ZYLOG Zylog Systems Limited SRIPRIYA SRIKANTH BUY 12,540 517.28 - 14-Feb-2012 ZYLOG Zylog Systems Limited SRIPRIYA SRIKANTH SELL 88,833 516.31 -

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 14-Feb-2012

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 14-Feb-2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	57298	1548.89	50203	1357.959	561833	15219.19	190.93
INDEX OPTIONS	504502	13483.42	518678	13836.83	1563328	42324.29	-353.41
STOCK FUTURES	79953	2451.835	95778	2896.727	1067130	31318.8	-444.89
STOCK OPTIONS	26211	793.7773	27521	828.7138	62499	1811.965	-34.94
						Total	-642.30

 

 

-- 

SpiceJet Ltd (SJET) UW(V): No surprises in 3Q12 results:: HSBC Research

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SpiceJet Ltd (SJET)
UW(V): No surprises in 3Q12 results, key concerns remain
 3Q12 loss driven by higher costs and lower loads, in line
with expectations at the operational level
 Outlook – upbeat on demand, but concerns on capacity,
costs and rising debt remain; book value fast eroding
 Reiterate UW(V) and maintain TP at INR15, based on 9x
EV/EBITDAR; policy risks key

How stock exchanges came into being ::Business Line

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Markets have come a long way from a few people huddled under a tree haggling and shouting out their buy or sell prices.

Sell Reliance Communication; Target : Rs 84:: ICICI Securities, (pdf link)

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http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_RelianceCommunication_Q3FY12.pdf


S u b d u e d   t r a f f i c   g r o w t h …
Reliance Communication reported its Q3FY12 numbers, which were
below our expectations on the topline front. Revenues for the quarter
stood at | 4824.1 crore against our expectation of | 5066.1 crore primarily
on account of lower than expected growth in traffic, growing 0.7% QoQ.
The EBITDA for the quarter stood at | 1383.1 crore against our
expectation of | 1483.5 crore, growing 1.9% QoQ. The EBITDA margin for
the quarter stood at 28.7% expanding by 35 bps QoQ. However, on the
bottomline front, the company reported better than expected numbers.
Net profit for the quarter stood at | 186.2 crore against our expectation of
| 165.3 crore primarily due to higher other income, which stood at | 228
crore against our expectation of | 100 crore.
Highlights of quarter
The traffic on the network grew marginally by 1.0% QoQ to 99.9 billion
minutes while the ARPM remained stable at 45 paisa. ARPU and MoU,
however, continued with their declining trend, falling from | 101 and 227
minutes to | 100 and 224 minutes, respectively. Subscriber net adds
continued to decline with the company adding 3.0 million wireless
subscribers in this quarter. Data revenues contributed to over 20% of the
total revenues.
V a l u a t i o n
The quarter was marked by subdued growth in traffic suggesting price
elasticity among subscribers. In the wake of higher interest cost in the
future as guided by the management, we have revised our estimates for
FY13 from | 4.0 to | 3.8. At the CMP of | 94, the stock is trading at 26.5x
FY12E EPS of | 3.5 and 24.9x FY13E EPS of | 3.8. We have valued the
stock using the DCF methodology and arrived at a target price of | 84,
assuming 4.7% CAGR in revenue over FY11E-FY20E and terminal growth
rate of 3%. Due to the recent rally in the stock, we rate it as SELL.

Chennai Petroleum: Poor fare; but bottom closer ::Elara

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Poor fare; but bottom closer
Forex losses continue to hit hard
CPCL reported another poor quarter with in-line revenue of INR111bn
but forex losses hitting the EBITDA and bottom-line. The Q3FY12
EBITDA came in at INR619mn, significantly below Street estimates of
INR1.5-2.0bn, while CPCL reported a net loss of INR634mn. The
company reported GRMs of USD3.36/bbl, below our estimate of
USD4.3/bbl. The Q3FY12 throughput was also affected marginally due
to the cyclone hitting the east coast leading to a standstill in crude
supply around Dec’11-end.
Key takeaways from concall: GRMs break-up and refinery plans
􀂃 The inventory gain for Q3FY12 was INR1.48bn (USD1.48/bbl),
while the exchange related losses net of crude (INR2.23bn) and
product gains (INR0.20bn) were INR2.03bn (USD2.04/bbl). With
the reported GRMs of USD3.36/bbl, our analysis suggests that the
operational margin was ~USD3.9/bbl. We expect better Q4FY12
GRMs, as well as FY13 due to recovery in spreads of light products.
􀂃 CPCL achieved ~70% of distillate yield in Q3FY12 (22% light and
47.9% middle distillates) while the fuel and loss was higher 9.8%
due to additional fuel consumption for secondary units. Post the
residue upgradation project in FY13, CPCL expects the distillate
yield to reach 85-90%. Also, CPCL would be taking a 2-month
shutdown in Jun/Jul 2012, post which another 0.6MMT of
capacity will be blended in through debottlenecking.
􀂃 Capex for FY12 so far stands at INR3.2bn, and it should be INR5bn
for FY12 and around INR8bn for FY13.
Still some pain left, but bottom getting closer; Upgrade to Reduce
We upgrade CPCL to Reduce from Sell as we see the stock bottoming
out after declining 14% and under-performing the Sensex by 23%
since our downgrade in Oct’11. We see operational concerns hurting
earnings for another 2-3 quarters, which should keep CPCL under
pressure. In the near term, we would turn positive only if CPCL corrects
another 10-12% from the current levels. CPCL trades at 6x EV/EBITDA
on FY14 estimates, a slightly rich multiple for a simple refiner. We value
CPCL at 5.5x EV/EBITDA, revising our TP to INR160/sh.