FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 01-Feb-2012

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 01-Feb-2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	52051	1353.57	68837	1780.75	443924	11605.64	-427.18
INDEX OPTIONS	450407	11649.00	431790	11154.89	1243820	32542.65	494.11
STOCK FUTURES	59253	1625.12	69997	1964.85	971277	27105.08	-339.73
STOCK OPTIONS	23158	649.14	23328	647.64	38116	1049.90	1.50
						Total	-271.30

 

 

-- 

FII & DII trading activity across NSE and BSE 01-02-2012

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Category	Buy	Sell	Net
	Value	Value	Value
FII	4997.28	3320.79	1676.49
DII	1734.93	1767.22	-32.29

 

 

Stellar Rebound Ø The S&P CNX Nifty :: CSEC Research

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Stellar Rebound

Ø   The S&P CNX Nifty recouped its losses and posted 110 points gains. The nifty closes a tad below 5200 mark.

Ø   Metals and Mining were star performers in this rally. Hindalco, Sesagoa posted more than 5 percent gains.

Ø   SBI advanced more than 3 percent as the Government of India has agreed to inject approximately Rs 7,900 crore into bank by way of preferential allotment of equity shares. ICICI bank, TITAN remained upbeat as their Q3 numbers were above street estimates.

Ø   Cement stocks gained ahead of announcement of monthly cement dispatches data for January.

Ø   Tata Global Beverages rallied 10% on forming joint venture (JV) with the world’s biggest coffee chain operator, Starbucks, to roll out its cafes on a pan-India basis.

Outlook

Ø  U.S. markets slipped into negative territory after U.S. economic data failed to live up to its billing. However, Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 recorded their best percentage jump for the month of January since 1997. The Nasdaq Composite recorded its best January since 2001.

Ø  In today’s trade Asian markets are trading mixed and SGX Nifty is trading at 5,219, below its previous day close, indicating soft opening.

 

Regards,

CSEC Research

Hold Patel Engineering ; Target : Rs 99 ::ICICI Securities

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Margin surprises but visibility remains low…
Patel Engineering’s (PEL) Q3FY12 operating performance was better than
our estimates on account of superior margins of 18% (11.8% in Q2FY12)
vs. our estimates of 13% despite lower topline of | 619.3 crore vs. our
estimate of | 793.6 crore. Consequently, PEL reported a bottomline of |
20 crore vs. our estimates of | 12.7 crore. While construction order inflow
and execution has remained sluggish  in the last couple of quarters,
providing low visibility, the volatility in margins is also inexplicable. We
maintain our HOLD recommendation on the stock.
ƒ Margins surprise positively
PEL’s Q3FY12 performance positively surprised on the margin front
where the company reported an EBITDA margin of 18% on account of
superior margins in the construction & real estate division. The
construction segment registered an EBIT margin of ~13.1% vs. 9.6% in
Q2FY12 and the real estate segment clocked EBIT margins of 28.2% vs.
21.7% in Q2FY12. We highlight that the margins have been erratic for PEL
in the last couple of quarters, which is inexplicable.
ƒ But…visibility continues to remain low on construction order book
The company has failed to bag any major orders in the last couple of
quarters. Currently, the order book stands at | 9000-10,000 crore. We still
await further clarity on the exact order inflow and order book break-up.
Nevertheless, adjusting for Andhra Pradesh (~| 2200 crore) and
contentious orders (| 1,500 crore –Kotlibel, | 300 crore from Tanzania),
the order book provides low revenue visibility of less than two years.
V a l u a t i o n
At the CMP, the stock is trading  at a P/E of 8.8x FY13E earnings.
Considering execution delays in the construction segment, volatility in
margins, lower visibility on the current order book, high debt level and
lack of clarity over tax raids, we recommend HOLD  with  an  SOTP  price
target of | 99. We have valued the construction business using
EV/EBITDA multiple in order to capture rising debt level.

Hold Vardhman Textiles; Target : Rs 186::ICICI Securities

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P o s i t i v e   s u r p r i s e :   o p e r a t i n g  ma r g i n s   e x p a n d…
Vardhman Textiles’ (Vardhman) Q2FY12 numbers were a mixed bag.
While revenues came in lower than our expectations, the operating
margin and PAT were ahead of our estimates. In Q3FY12, revenues
remained flat (both sequentially and YoY) at | 984.0 crore (I-direct
estimate: | 1,173.1 crore). Unlike Q2FY12, this time the yarn segment
revenues remained flat (up 1.9% YoY) at | 827.6 crore (yarn segment
grew by 25.8% YoY in Q2FY12). Notably, the fabric segment revenues
(contributing 28% to the topline) grew by 16.6% YoY to | 319.7 crore.
The company positively surprised us on the EBITDA margin front.
Vardhman reported an EBITDA margin of 17.3% (up 282 bps higher
sequentially), 246 bps higher than our estimate on the back of lower raw
material expenses. However, due to a lower operating margin on a YoY
basis and higher interest costs, PAT halved from | 135.6 crore in Q3FY11
to | 60.3 crore in Q3FY12.
ƒ Segmental performance
Yarn: The yarn segment, which grew 25.8% in Q2FY12, posted flat
YoY growth in Q3FY12 (up 1.9% YoY). For nine months ended
December 2011, the yarn segment grew 19.6% to | 2,569.8 crore.
The segmental EBIT margin improved from 7.9% in Q2FY12 to 9.9%
in Q3FY12. Operating margin for the nine months ended December
2011 were lower at 4.4% due to the loss incurred in Q1FY12.
Fabric: In the fabric segment, sales increased by 16.6% and 19.3%
to | 319.7 crore and | 916.3 crore in Q3FY12 and 9MFY12,
respectively. The segmental EBIT margin also improved from 7.5%
in Q2FY12 to 11.8% in Q3FY12. For nine months ended December
2011, EBIT margins stood at 8.8%.
V a l u a t i o n
At the CMP, the stock is currently trading at 14.2x and 9.5x FY12E and
FY13E EPS of | 13.5 and | 20.4, respectively. Notably, the company has
come out of the difficult situation of Q1FY12 and reported better numbers
sequentially. We maintain a HOLD rating on the stock with a target price
of | 186 (based on an average arrived at by assigning a multiple of 0.7x
FY13E book value and 4.5x FY13E EPS).

Buy Torrent Pharmaceuticals; Target :Rs 620 ::ICICI Securities

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E x p o r t s   r o b u s t ,   d o m e s t i c  b u s i n e s s   s t i l l   l a g s …
Torrent Pharma reported a mixed set of numbers for Q3FY12. While it
recorded revenue growth of ~21% YoY (I-direct estimate of 17.3%), the
EBIDITA margins were compressed at 17.4% vis-à-vis 20% in the
corresponding quarter last fiscal and  against I-direct estimate of ~20%.
The pressure on margins was on account of higher operating expenses.
As a result, the EBIDTA and PAT growth was restricted to 6% and 8%,
respectively. The topline growth was fuelled by exports whereas
domestic formulations continued to languish at around 8-9% growth rate.
We maintain our BUY rating on the stock although sluggish domestic
growth is emerging as a matter of concern.
ƒ Exports continue to register robust growth
Exports grew by 33% to | 394 crore YoY on the back of strong
growth in the core Brazilian market (27% growth), the US (67%
growth) and Europe ex-Germany/RoW (37% growth). Germany
based Heumann grew 14% during the quarter. Growth was driven
by favourable currency impact and new launches.
ƒ Domestic business growth remains sluggish, CRAMS growth flat
Domestic formulations grew just 8% to | 229 crore, marking the
fourth consecutive quarter of sluggish growth. This is attributable to
~4% growth in acute therapies. CRAMS growth also remained flat
at 3%. Torrent recorded a licensing income of | 9.8 crore during the
quarter.
V a l u a t i o n
We expect Torrent’s sales, EBIDTA and PAT to grow at a CAGR of 17.4%,
24.9% and 22.2%, respectively, between FY11 and FY13E. What bothers
us is the slowdown in domestic formulations for such a long span despite
a major presence in the fast growing chronic therapies. We have altered
our FY13E growth estimates for domestic formulations from ~16-18% to
12-14% due to lack of management clarity. We have ascribed a target
price of | 620 (earlier | 678), based on 13x FY13E of | 47.7.

Buy Bank of Baroda ; Target : Rs 954 ::ICICI Securities

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A s s e t   q u a l  i t y   s t r e s s   v i s i b le ,   r e s t r u c t u  r i n g   r i s e s …
A significant rise of 70% YoY in non interest income booked in all
segments, i.e. portfolio gains, forex as well as fee income led to net profit
growing 20% YoY to | 1289 crore despite higher provisions. Margins
declined 8 bps QoQ to 2.99% from 3.07%. Asset quality surprised
negatively. Deposits grew 24% while advances grew 26% YoY slightly
ahead of our estimates mainly due to international book growth of 45.8%
YoY. However, we continue with our 20% growth in credit and deposit for
FY12E. We estimate 16% CAGR in PAT over FY11-13E to | 5681 crore.
ƒ Asset quality surprises negatively, provisions surge…
GNPA increased to | 3895 crore  from | 3402 crore sequentially.
Slippages were at ~| 920 crore  and increased mainly due to
aviation sector NPAs. Also, the restructured book grew by | 2116
crore QoQ in absolute terms and increased to 3.8% of the loan book
due to one large telecom infra player getting restructured. Nearly
13% of restructured assets have slipped to NPA till date. These
restructured assets (RA) comprise 65% wholesale banking, 20%
SME, 9% agriculture and 6% retail. Hence, NNPA rose to | 1325
crore from | 1118.6 crore rising to 0.51% from 0.47%. Asset quality
is expected to remain under stress. Hence, we have factored in
GNPA and NNPA reaching 1.6% and 0.5%, respectively by FY13E.
Provisions grew 175% YoY to  | 837 crore marred by higher
slippages, provision on RA of ~| 150 crore and | 78 crore of
increased prudential provisions on secured sub standard assets to
20% vs. 15% (as per RBI) to maintain PCR above 80%.
ƒ Non interest income growth supports bottomline…
Non interest income surged 70% YoY to | 1149 crore though core
commission fee based income grew only 20% YoY to | 293 crore.
Some withdrawals for MF investments led to gains of ~| 300 crore
leading to trading gains of | 385 crore from | 85 crore in Q3FY11.
Forex income also grew to | 240 crore vs. average of ~| 140 crore
every quarter.
V a l u a t i o n
Though NPA concerns have risen, we  expect BoB’s strong profitability
record to enable it to maintain profit growth of 16% CAGR with RoE and
RoA above 20% and 1.2%, respectively. We maintain our TP of | 954

Buy Yes Bank; Target :Rs 369 ::ICICI Securities

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S t r e n g t h e n i n g   r e t a i l   p r e s e n c e …
Yes Bank registered healthy PAT growth of 32.9% YoY to | 254.1 crore (I
direct estimate: | 237.6 crore) on the back of a strong all-round
performance. NII surged 32.3% YoY to | 427.6 crore as it maintained NIM
YoY at 2.8% (10 bps QoQ dip). Non-interest income grew a healthy 30.8%
YoY to | 211.4 crore. C/I ratio was stable at 37.6%. The bank continues to
have best in class asset quality as  it reported GNPA ratio at 0.2% and
NNPA ratio at 0.04% with PCR of 80%. GNPA grew 4.7% QoQ in Q3FY12
while restructured assets remain sequentially flat at | 175.7 crore.
Provisions dipped 10.4% YoY to | 22.4 crore. We have revised our credit
growth (from 30% to 14.7%) and investment growth (from 30.8% to
45.3%) for FY12E as the bank is witnessing higher credit substitute
demand. We estimate PAT CAGR of 32.8% to | 994 crore, over FY11-13E.
ƒ Retail presence strengthens both on liability and asset side…
A savings rate hike has led to an improvement in the CASA ratio by
160 bps QoQ to | 12.6% in Q3FY12. The bank now holds about 31%
of deposits in the form of either CASA or branch banking term
deposit. In line with the version 2.0 strategy, the bank has added 26
branches during Q3FY12 taking the total count to 331.
Retail share in advances has augmented from 4.5% in Q1FY11 to
15.2% in Q3FY12. Retail credit witnessed robust 73.5% YoY growth
to | 5452 crore compared to total credit growth of 15.3% YoY.
ƒ Credit growth subdued at 15.3%, customer assets grow 28.1% YoY
Credit growth remained muted with 15.3% YoY growth to | 35868
crore while total customer assets (advances + credit substitutes via
investments) grew 28.1% YoY  to | 43750 crore. The bank has
witnessed higher demand for credit via CP and bond as they provide
liquidity and are simpler to get into fixed rate contracts. We expect
this trend to continue till Q4FY12E. Hence, we have revised credit
growth from 30% to 14.7% and investment growth from 30.8% to
45.3% for FY12E.
V a l u a t i o n
The bank has been consistently delivering RoA of 1.5%+ & RoE of 20%+
for 13 consecutive quarters. We maintain our BUY recommendation with
a target price of | 369, valuing the bank at 2x FY13E ABV.

Hold Idea Cellular; Target : Rs 99 ::ICICI Securities

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E x c e p t i o  n a l   K P I s ;   n e a r   t e rm  p o l i c y   o v e r h a n g…
Idea’s Q3FY12 results were better  than our estimates. The company
reported a topline of | 5030.8 crore against our expectation of | 4853.5
crore, posting growth of 8.9% QoQ and 27.2% YoY. While the traffic on
the network grew 7.3% sequentially, the ARPM grew by 1.4% to 43 paisa.
The subscriber base grew 6.2% QoQ to 106.4 million. EBITDA stood at |
1344.6 crore (I-direct estimate: | 1267.2 crore), growing 13.3% QoQ and
41.8% YoY. The EBITDA margin increased 104 bps QoQ to 26.7%,
primarily due to higher operational efficiency on account of seasonality.
PAT for the quarter stood at | 201.0 crore growing 90.0% QoQ albeit on a
comparatively lower base.
Highlights of the quarter
The ARPU for the quarter grew by 2.6% to | 159. MoU per user stood at
369 minutes, growing 1.4% from 364  minutes in Q2FY12 signalling a
seasonally strong quarter after a weak Q2FY12. ARPM rose by 1.4% from
42.7 paisa in Q2FY12 to 43.3 paisa in Q3FY12 as the effect of the recent
price hike has started showing in the ARPM. The subscriber base grew
6.2% (6.2 million) to 106.4 million subscribers. After decreasing in the last
quarter, total traffic also grew by 7.3% to 114 billion minutes.
V a l u a t i o n
All the KPIs posted an improvement in this quarter representing a strong
season. Though it signals a reduction in the competitive intensity, the
management indicated that the competitive intensity is far from over. The
growth is expected to come from Tier I and Tier II cities. However,
spectrum pricing may remain a policy overhang on the stock in the near
term. Assuming revenue CAGR of 12.6% over FY11E–FY20E and terminal
growth of 3% thereon, we have arrived at a target price of | 80/share for
the core business. We have valued the Indus contribution at | 19/share to
arrive at a target price of | 99/share. We maintain our HOLD rating on the
stock

Making card transactions more secure :: Business Line

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Plastic money has made life much easier for all of us. But unless we have had a personal experience, we don't realise how much of a security nightmare it can be. Here are a few things that will make our card transactions safer. Unlike magnetic stripe cards, chip cards (also called EMV cards) use superior technology that helps guard against skimming and cloning.

It is a question of confidence more than anything else: PRAVEEN KADLE, MD & CEO, TATA CAPITAL: Business Line

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Superior working-capital management and more efficient use of capital have helped companies report reasonably good results.PRAVEEN KADLE, MD & CEO, TATA CAPITAL

Low business confidence, rather than high interest rates, seem to be deterring companies from expanding ambitiously and consumers from borrowing more, says Mr Praveen Kadle, MD & CEO, Tata Capital Limited. In this interview with Business Line Mr Kadle talks of how Tata Capital is carving a niche for itself in corporate finance and why this business will sustain even in a sluggish economy.

Excerpts from the interview:

Many NBFCs occupy a niche to deliver growth-used commercial vehicles, gold loans, and so on. Tata Capital seems to have a number of businesses in its kitty. What is the focus?

Tata Capital has two broad categories of customers — retail and corporate — and for each of these categories, Tata Capital wants to be a holistic solutions provider. Between the two segments, the corporate finance segment currently constitutes a larger part of our book.

We were one of the first movers in this segment. Within the corporate segment, we provide loans to fund working capital and capital expenditure, help corporates raise money through equity, debt and structured loans via our investment banking arm and help clients raise money from international markets through tie-ups. We also have an institutional broking and distribution arm.

Watch Nifty Ø 1 Feb 2012:: IFCI research,

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Watch Nifty

Ø  Nifty tested fresh intraday high of 5215 on the back of firm global cues and closed with bullish white candle body. It shows continuation of a trend as well as a possible reversal. The momentum indicators such as MACD & RSI on the daily chart confirms the NIFTY would continue to maintain its uptrend, with likely resistance at 5250/5290 levels.On the downside, the support for NIFTY is seen at 5165/5130 levels. Short term traders are advised to avoid fresh long positions at this point of time.

Ø  The ceiling of the downward price channel formed on weekly chart at 5290 will act as a strong short term hurdle and move above this level is needed before traders can initiate fresh long positions. Failure to move above this level will keep the index moving in the band between 4900 and 5,300.

Equity Buy/Sell (Technical View) Ø 1 Feb: IFCI research

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Equity Buy/Sell (Technical View)

Ø  MCLEODRUSS (188.45): On weekly chart, the stochastic oscillators are in heavily oversold territory, indicating that bounce back on the upside can help to test at 210 and 224 levels in near run. The support would be at 181/176 levels.

Have strict stop losses

Feb 1: News (click on link to read article) ::IFCI research,

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 Morning News (click on link to read article)

Economic Times		Business Standard
Ø  Coal India rolls back price hike Ø  ICICI Bank Q3 at Rs 1728 cr, widely beats estimates Ø  India eyes $100 bn investment in nuclear power Ø  GMR Infra arranges $2 billion loan for Sao Paulo Airport bid Ø  Coal shortage hits NTPC power generation capacity by up to 15% Ø  Nestle to expand nutrition portfolio: Luis Cantarell		Ø  Budget push for defence network to free up spectrum Ø  FIIs net buy Rs 624 cr, DIIs net sell Rs 241 cr Ø  Rupee posts best month in 17 yrs, seen gaining Ø  KEC Intl sees order book Rs 9,500 cr by end-March Ø  PNB Q3 net up 5.5% at Rs 1,150 cr Ø  DoT issues notices to pvt telcos for under reporting revenue
Business Line		Mint
Ø  US, India win WTO case agst China on raw material exports Ø  Excise duty, service tax may be hiked in this Budget Ø  Guj Govt serves Rs 6,300-cr sales tax notice on Essar Oil Ø  TCS expands US operation with new facility in Silicon Valley Ø  DoT starts process for auctioning spectrum in 700 Mhz band Ø  Peugeot eyes Maruti territory with small car, entry sedan		Ø  Sebi plans slew of measuresfor market operations Ø  Gold gains Rs225 on seasonal buying, silver up by Rs500 Ø  RBI to use OMOs to tackle cash shortfall: Gokarn Ø  TVS Motor misses Q3 earnings estimates Ø  Poor sales growth and high costs pull down Siemens’ profit Ø  Newspaper profits hit by weak rupee, rising costs
Financial Express		Financial Chronicle
Ø  New gas policy to drive up cost of power & ind goods Ø  Negative outlook for shipping ind: Fitch Ø  Volatile capital flows a threat: RBI Ø  India's per capita income crosses Rs 50K Ø  Dabur Q3 net profit up 12% at Rs 173 cr Ø  Jet fuel prices slashed by over 3%		Ø  Cement prices set to rise by Rs 8-10 a bag Ø  RBI may go for another CRR cut to ease liquidity pressure Ø  Govt stake in SBI to go up by 2.5% post-equity infusion Ø  All pvt banks to handle govt businesses as agents: RBI Ø  RBI to buy govt securities worth Rs 10,000 cr Ø  IDBI net drops 9.7% amid high fund cost, Kingfisher account

   (Click on link to view article)

Thanks and Regards

IFIN: IFCI Financial Services Limited