02 January 2012

RIL regains most-valued status; pushes TCS to 2nd slot (rediff)

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RILStarting new year on an upbeat note, billionaire Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries  on Monday regained its position of the country's most-valued company and pushed Tata group firm TCS to the second slot.

Tata Consultancy Services had dethroned RIL from the pole position in market-valuation charts on December 30, the last trading session of 2011, but its leadership position proved to be short-lived and it slipped to the second position in Monday's trading session -- the first of 2012.

At the end of Monday's trade, RIL commanded a market value of Rs 2,31,487 crore (Rs 2,314.87 billion), higher than TCS' Rs 2,30,609 crore (Rs 2,306.09 billion).

TCS shares on Monday gained 1.5 per cent to close at Rs 1178.25, but the RIL stock registered a smarter gain of 2.03 per cent to close at Rs 706.95.

Both the stock outperformed the market barometer Sensex, which gained 0.4 per cent on Monday.

RIL has been the country's most valued firm for a long time, but it slipped to the second position thrice in 2011, allthough briefly on all the three occasions.

Last month, RIL also lost out to another IT major Infosys as the country's most influential stock, measured in terms of weightage on the barometer Sensex.

Although RIL has managed to regain this position on a few occasions, it remained the second most influential stock after Infosys at the end of Monday's trade.

The figures for both the market valuation and the Sensex weightage change on a daily basis in the stock market, as per the changes in the share prices.

While market valuation of a company is determined on the basis of cumulative value of all its listed shares, the Sensex weigthage is derived from the value of free-float shares or the shares owned by non-promoter stakeholders that are freely available for trade in the market.

At the end of Monday's trade, Infosys carried a Sensex weightage of 10.76 per cent, as against RIL's 10.01 per cent.

A higher weightage means a larger impact on the movement of Sensex, whose value changes as per the change in share prices of its 30 constituent stocks.

Infosys shares on Monday rose 1.44 per cent to Rs 2804.85.

In terms of full market value, Infosys is ranked fifth after RIL, TCS, ONGC  and Coal India .

Earlier on August 17, 2011 Coal India had toppled RIL as the country's most valued company, while the polyster-to-energy-retail conglomerate had slipped to third position below ONGC two days later on August 19, 2011.

About a week later, RIL regained its top slot on August 23, while CIL slipped to third position. But, ONGC rose to the top slot on August 26, 2011, pushing RIL to second position.

A few days later, RIL again rose to the pole position on August 29, 2011 and had mostly remained there, till it lost out to TCS, part of salt-to-software conglomerate Tata group.

BSE, Bulk deals, 2/1/2012

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Deal DateScrip CodeCompanyClient NameDeal Type *QuantityPrice **
2/1/2012531270Dazzel ConfYOGESHKUMAR SURESHBHAI PARMARS8286062.45
2/1/2012531695Dhvanil ChemSOMAIYA MANOJ PREMJIBHAIB5000029.22
2/1/2012531758GK ConsultantsALKA LADHANIB2700014.85
2/1/2012530701Gomti FinleaseDYNAMIC SHIP RECYCLERS PRIVATE LIMITEDB2500043.50
2/1/2012530701Gomti FinleaseSUNITA HANUMAN GADODIAB2000043.50
2/1/2012530701Gomti FinleaseSUSHILA DEVI GADODIAB2000043.50
2/1/2012530701Gomti FinleaseREKHA BHARAT GADODIAB2000043.50
2/1/2012530701Gomti FinleaseTRADING LLP CHIRANIAS10230043.50
2/1/2012505525Parichay InvestNATHUBHAI LALJEBHAI CHAUHANB1400033.70
2/1/2012505525Parichay InvestPRADIP ARVINDBHAI SHETHB1100033.70
2/1/2012505525Parichay InvestTEJAS RAMBHAI THADESSARS3502633.70
2/1/2012511734Pasupati FinAMIT KRISHNAKANT THAKKERB3939723.58
2/1/2012531769PFL InfotechUSHA MEHTAB50000104.50
2/1/2012531769PFL InfotechKANTA MEHTAB50000104.50
2/1/2012531769PFL InfotechRITA MEHTAB50000104.50
2/1/2012531769PFL InfotechREKHA MEHTAB50000104.50
2/1/2012531769PFL InfotechMEENAKSHI MERCANTILES LTDB80000104.50
2/1/2012531769PFL InfotechDEORA FINANCE PRIVATE LIMITEDB38000104.50
2/1/2012531769PFL InfotechLUCAS ESTATES PRIVATE LTDB40000104.50
2/1/2012531769PFL InfotechSILVER CROSS MARKETING PVT. LTD.B40000104.50
2/1/2012531769PFL InfotechTRISHUL VINTRADE PRIVATE LIMITEDS150000104.50
2/1/2012531769PFL InfotechDHANSAGAR VINTRADE PRIVATE LIMITEDS250000104.50
2/1/2012531769PFL InfotechAPPEAR COMMODEAL PRIVATE LIMITEDS70610104.50
2/1/2012526588Photoquip IndiaTARABEN JAYANT SONIB2400040.98
2/1/2012512481Polytex IndiaJINAL APURVA RAWALB105510129.41
2/1/2012531855Prabhav Indssally mediaandentertainment pvt ltdS4000002.70
2/1/2012532675Prithvi InfoINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT BANK OF INDIAS9500011.22
2/1/2012531886SCOPE INDPRAVIN SUBHASH HONAPB4300016.60
2/1/2012531886SCOPE INDAMIT SURYAKANTBHAI SONIB7726516.60
2/1/2012531886SCOPE INDMAHESH PRAKASH THIKB3900016.70
2/1/2012531886SCOPE INDGOPIDI CHANDRAKANTH REDDYB5622616.51
2/1/2012531886SCOPE INDDURGAPRASAD VISHWA MUDIGUNDAS13465316.60
2/1/2012531886SCOPE INDGOPIDI CHANDRAKANTH REDDYS5622616.58
2/1/2012512413SPECTACLERAJESH JAYANTILAL KHANDHARB6000005.39
2/1/2012512413SPECTACLEJIGAR P GHOGHARIS3500005.39
2/1/2012512413SPECTACLEJINAL APURVA RAWALS3508985.39
2/1/2012517534SV ElectricalsPAWAN KUMAR SHARMAB1301109.70
2/1/2012517534SV ElectricalsMEHUL KIRIT PAREKHB13400810.42
2/1/2012517534SV ElectricalsPAWAN KUMAR SHARMAS1301089.70
2/1/2012590111VAISHNAVIBIMLA DEVIB959748.04
2/1/2012590111VAISHNAVIGUMMADI SESHAGIRI RAOB863098.15
2/1/2012590111VAISHNAVILAKSHMI NARAYANA TADEPALLIB800008.15
2/1/2012590111VAISHNAVIBIMLA DEVIS959748.15
2/1/2012532917Varun IndsSWATI RAJESH SHAHB184271230.40
* B - Buy, S - Sell
** = Weighted Average Trade Price / Trade Price

NSE, Bulk deals, 02-Jan-2012

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DateSymbolSecurity NameClient NameBuy / SellQuantity TradedTrade Price /
Wght. Avg.
Price
Remarks
02-Jan-2012IFCIIFCI Ltd.ADROIT SHARE & STOCK BROKER PVT. LTD.BUY66,96,75521.49-
02-Jan-2012IFCIIFCI Ltd.ADROIT SHARE & STOCK BROKER PVT. LTD.SELL66,08,75521.66-
02-Jan-2012IFCIIFCI Ltd.ARUMUGASAMY OSELL58,14,29620.57-
02-Jan-2012IFCIIFCI Ltd.SYKES & RAY EQUITIES (I) LTD.BUY51,99,02021.32-
02-Jan-2012IFCIIFCI Ltd.SYKES & RAY EQUITIES (I) LTD.SELL27,59,02021.80-
02-Jan-2012LMLLML Ltd.SARASWATI TRADING COMPANY LIMITEDSELL4,45,5407.78-
02-Jan-2012PRITHVIPrithvi Information SolutINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT BANK OF INDIASELL1,05,00011.09-

2/1/12:: Categories Turnover (Rs. crore) Clients NRI Proprietary Trade Data

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Categories Turnover
(Rs. crore)
ClientsNRIProprietary
Trade DateBuySalesNetBuySalesNetBuySalesNet
2/1/12920.71926.21-5.500.500.110.40333.82327.716.11
30/12/11999.63955.1644.470.550.030.52314.13339.39-25.25
29/12/111,004.12915.8588.270.220.43-0.20314.30330.22-15.91
Jan , 12920.71926.21-5.500.500.110.40333.82327.716.11
Since 1/1/12920.71926.21-5.500.500.110.40333.82327.716.11

2/1/12:: FII & DII Turnover (BSE + NSE) (Rs. crore)

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FII & DII Turnover (BSE + NSE)
(Rs. crore)
FIIDII
Trade DateBuySalesNetBuySalesNet
2/1/12458.53552.40-93.87579.04494.7084.34
30/12/11969.101,147.25-178.15853.68587.08266.60
29/12/111,504.502,520.32-1,015.82996.86673.79323.07
Jan , 12458.53552.40-93.87579.04494.7084.34
Since 1/1/12   *458.53552.40-93.87579.04494.7084.34

2/1/12:: FII & DII Turnover (BSE + NSE) (Rs. crore)

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FII & DII Turnover (BSE + NSE)
(Rs. crore)
FIIDII
Trade DateBuySalesNetBuySalesNet
2/1/12458.53552.40-93.87579.04494.7084.34
30/12/11969.101,147.25-178.15853.68587.08266.60
29/12/111,504.502,520.32-1,015.82996.86673.79323.07
Jan , 12458.53552.40-93.87579.04494.7084.34
Since 1/1/12   *458.53552.40-93.87579.04494.7084.34

Petrol prices not to be hiked this fortnight (ET)

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 Petrol prices will not be raised this fortnight as state-owned oil firms apparently could not get political clearance for the over Rs 2 per litre hike in rates needed to achieve parity with the imported cost on account of the weakening rupee.

Indian Oil (IOC) and other state-run firms, which had last month refrained from hiking petrol prices as the government was wary of protests while Parliament was in session, are not raising the rates even this fortnight, a source privy to the development said.

Given the drubbing the Lokpal Bill got in the Rajya Sabha, the government does not want to alienate the Trinamool Congress, the most vocal opponent of fuel price increases within the ruling UPA.

Furthermore, Assembly elections in five crucial states, including Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, have been announced and a hike in petrol prices would have created a "negative image", the source said.

Oil firms, as per the usual practice, revise the rates for petrol on the 1st and 16th of every month based on the average imported price of oil and exchange rates during the previous fortnight. However, they postponed a decision on the hike on December 31 as it was New Year's eve.

Today, the oil firms could not get the "informal political approval" they used to seek from their majority shareholder, the source said.

A hike of over Rs 2 per litre was necessitated because the rupee depreciated to Rs 53.07 per US dollar in the second fortnight of December, based on which the rates on January 1 were to be decided. The average exchange rate stood at Rs 51.98 per US dollar in the first fortnight of December.

International prices of gasoline, against which domestic petrol rates are benchmarked, averaged USD 111.71 per barrel in the second half of December, almost the same as in the previous fortnight.

Petrol at IOC and Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL) pumps in Delhi is now priced at Rs 65.64 per litre, while it costs Rs 65.65 a litre at retail outlets of Hindustan Petroleum Corp.

The trio had cut petrol prices twice in November in the wake of a drop in international oil rates. They reduced petrol prices by Rs 2.22 per litre, or 3.2 per cent, from November 16, followed by a Rs 0.78 per litre cut from December 1. The domestic rates, which were last revised on November 30, are pegged at a Rs 51.50 per US dollar exchange rate.

State-owned oil companies use the fortnightly average of benchmark oil prices and exchange rates to revise retail rates on the 1st and 16th of every month. Petrol prices were freed from government control in June last year, but public sector companies continue to informally consult their parent Oil Ministry before taking any decision.

The government continues to control rates of diesel, domestic LPG and kerosene, which are sold way below cost to keep inflation in check. The oil firms lose Rs 12.71 per litre of diesel, Rs 29.93 per litre of kerosene and Rs 326 per 14.2-kg LPG cylinder.

NRIs may pump in over $10 bn as rates rise (ET)

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  Non-resident Indians (NRIs) are expected to pump in upwards of $10 billion as banks fall over each other to offer better rates. The rate war is the fallout of Reserve Bank of India's move to deregulate returns on non-resident rupee deposits.

With big banks now in the game, dollars are expected to flow in as the yield on non-resident external (rupee) deposits is more than three times the return on dollar deposits even after adding the cost of hedging against the risk of rupee depreciation. By going in for a currency hedge, which will cost around 4.5% to 5%, investors are protected against rupee depreciation.

"I expect $10- $15 billion of inflows to come from the NRE deposits given the rate differential. This could be a game changer for the rupee which has factored in all the bad news so far," said Ashish Vaidya, head of fixed income, currency and commodities trading at UBS.

"I would expect that even on a conservative basis the deposit collection should be around Rs 40,000cr ($8 billion)," said Abhay Aima, group head, equities and private banking at HDFC Bank.

He said that HDFC Bank was using this opportunity to increase its presence in the NRI segment, where it has had moderate presence, by offering very competitive rates. HDFC Bank was among the earliest large banks to offer 9% and was followed by SBI and ICICI Bank, which introduced 9.25% schemes.

According to a banker with amultinational bank, the key to success is the international reach. But for international banks it could be a tradeoff between offering wealth management products with high fees and selling high cost deposits in a falling interest rate environment. "The present rates offered by banks in India provide an arbitrage opportunity for NRIs to borrow overseas and invest in India," said a banker with a multinational bank.

It is not clear how aggressive Standard Chartered Bank and Citibank will be in raising these deposits. Stanchart's highest return is 8.25% in the 2 years to 31 months maturity. Citibank has come out with a tiered rate structure where it offers between 5% and 8.5% depending on the size of the deposit. Interestingly, Citi's rates drops for deposits over Rs 50 lakh ostensibly to discourage customers from making leveraged deposits.

Banks can offer NRIs deposits in foreign currency. But such deposits will not address the shortage of dollars in India as the funds have to be deployed in foreign exchange loans. NRE deposits result in immediate supply of dollars which are converted into rupees.

WHY NRE DEPOSITS COULD SOAR

They offer a return of over 400 basis points over libor after hedging currency risks.
Risk takers betting on a stronger rupee in 12 months could make a killing if rupee does firm up.
The deposits are locked in for only one year.
Dollar fixed income rates are less than 2%.
There is uncertainty in global stock markets.
Non-residents are looking for a safe haven.
NRE accounts can be opened online.
There is an opportunity to make leveraged investments as cheap loans are available.

Global Economy: On thin ice · :: Edelweiss

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Global Economy: On thin ice
·         EU economies would see recessionary conditions persisting although ECB’s incrementally aggressive approach lessens the likelihood of an event risk materialising.
·         US macro data has improved to an extent, but lead indicators point towards a weak growth. Slowdown is spreading to EMs including China; 2012 to see growth taking precedence over inflation in policy actions across the region.

Indian Economy: More than a normal business cycle slowdown
·         Policy paralysis, fiscal slippages, monetary tightening and uncertain external environment  are weighing heavily on the investment cycle.  Rate cuts alone would not be adequate to engineer a turnaround.
·         Current macro decline is fashioned on the lines of 1992 slowdown even though the economy is better placed on vulnerability indicators. In our base case, FY13 GDP growth is likely to be ~7% but may slip to ~5.8% in a bear case scenario.
·         Two key measures, fiscal consolidation & de-bottlenecking of coal production, can help kick start the investment cycle.

Markets: Concerns persisting, still favoring defensives
·         Earnings trajectory continue to face headwinds. Our base case Sensex EPS for FY13 is INR1,261, already downgraded by over 10%, with the risk of further downgrades looming large. However, our bear case estimates put earnings at INR1,143 (GDP growth at 5.8% and USD-INR at 52).
·         On an absolute basis, valuations seem fair and below long term averages. But compared to peers in ‘BRICS’, India is still expensive as FY13 numbers face the risk of further downgrades.
·         Given this fragile outlook, the Sensex is likely to be range bound between 14,000-17,000.
·         Key themes to play: (a) weak rupee to support earnings in export oriented sectors (maintain OW on pharma , move IT to EW from UW) (b) domestic demand remains healthy (maintain OW on consumer sector) and (c) no immediate visibility on revival of capex (move industrials to UW).
·         Model portfolio: Outperformed Nifty by 200bps in CY11; since CY09, outperformance has been by ~400bps.


Outlook – 2012 “Panic - Consolidation - Rally” :: Anand Rathi

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12 Stocks that look good for 2012 are
SAIL, 
DIVIS LAB, 
CAIRN INDIA,
NMDC, 
BEML, 
EIL, 
HEXAWARE, 
IPCA, 
HUL, 
INDIAN HOTELS, 
WIPRO and 
OBEROI REALTY 

which can be bought in panic


Outlook – 2012 “Panic  - Consolidation -  Rally”
                                              

2012 OUTLOOK - Fundamentals  

"        Year 2012 would be year of consolidation after making panic low, sectors like Infrastructure and Realty can surprise market while IT & Pharma will be very defensive in the year. The rupee weakness (up to levels 55 and may be above that to 59) is to continue which may further impact positively to the export oriented businesses.
"         Stocks which have corporate governance issues, pledged shares, ECB loans or FCCB maturities may witness pressure.
"         On the other hand Cash-Rich PSU stocks with lower debt on books and good quality management stocks will be preferred.
"         After downgrades and a view of India being replaced by Indonesia in BRICs, its just a matter of time as after this bear phase rally we will enter the consolidation phase in 2012 and later 2013, market may see out performance.
"         Gradually the domestic situations will also improve with government action taking place, softening of inflation and reversing of interest rates will support the out performance.   


2012 OUTLOOK - Technical 

"        Sensex to move in the range of 11500 – 17700.
"         Nifty to move in the range of 3500 – 5400.
"         Nifty and  Sensex has closed below 200WMA on 3 continuous weeks which normally leads to more than 20% correction.
"         This bear phase which will see very sharp and short lived correction may see a low of 3500 in Nifty and 11500 in Sensex. This may be experienced H1 CY2012.
"         Later after the bear phase the market may see some consolidation phase followed by a rally which may see a high of 5400 in Nifty and 17700 levels in Sensex. These levels are possibly seen in the H2CY12.
"         This rally will be mainly lead by the top 100 market cap stocks and cash rich companies mainly from PSU and MNC basket.     



12 Stocks that look good for 2012 , which can be bought in panic 

SAIL, DIVIS LAB, CAIRN INDIA, NMDC, BEML, EIL, HEXAWARE, IPCA, HUL, INDIAN HOTELS, WIPRO AND OBEROI REALTY