Category-W​​ise Turnover 15-Dec-11

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Trade Date	Category	Buy Value in Rs.Crores	Sell Value in Rs.Crores
15-Dec-11	Mutual Funds	76.08	98.39	-22.31
15-Dec-11	Proprietory Trades	61186.84	61763.91	-577.07
15-Dec-11	Others	48819.88	47913.98	905.90
Notes :
1.  Buy / Sell value at the end of day:
Options Value (Buy/Sell) = Strike price * Qty
Futures Value (Buy/Sell) = Traded Price * Qty
2. Others exclude FIIs, Mutual Funds, Proprietory Trades

 

 

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 15-Dec-2011

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 15-Dec-2011
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	65656	1532.48	95566	2230.45	549992	12829.16	-697.98
INDEX OPTIONS	963372	22741.94	945240	22364.27	2066372	49004.97	377.67
STOCK FUTURES	80926	1855.77	83687	1862.25	1158442	25228.50	-6.48
STOCK OPTIONS	23921	535.44	23223	515.17	43492	942.62	20.27
						Total	-306.52

 

 

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15-12-2011: FII & DII trading activity across NSE and BSE

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Category	Buy	Sell	Net
	Value	Value	Value
FII	2991.84	3315.12	-323.28
DII	986.71	938.62	48.09

 

 

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Economy Poor mfg output pulls IIP into negative territory n Emkay

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Economy

Poor mfg output pulls IIP into negative territory

n     IIP growth for Oct 2011 at -5.1% came significantly lower than our expectation of -1.5% and consensus -0.5%. With this the IIP growth has fallen close to the Jan 2009 low of -5.3%

n     Surprise came from -6%yoy for mfg sector vs our expectation of -1.6%. Max contraction in cap goods sector at -25.5% followed by intermediate goods sector at -4.7%

n     Consumption sector also slowing along with investments. Notably while durables grew 0.3% (despite festival season), non-dur prod has been contracting over Sep and Oct 2011

n     Today’s IIP data has strengthened our take on possible accommodative monetary policy actions on Dec 16 and the coming months

LANCO INFRATECH Asset value remains saving grace :: Edelweiss

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Lanco Infratech (LITL) reported a Q2FY12 loss of INR2.6bn inclusive of
MTM loss of ~INR2.9bn and an exceptional gain of INR489mn, adjusting
for which, the loss would be INR206mn as against our profit estimates of
INR613mn. Operational issues in new power projects as well as Griffin
coal continue to persist, which we believe will extend into H2FY12 as
well. Although we deem that assets continue to possess significant value,
frequent accounting changes and legal concerns would exert pressure on
the stock. Maintain BUY with SOTP based target price of INR32/share.
Loss at INR2.6bn against profit estimate of INR613mn
The reported loss included INR2.9bn towards MTM provisions and an exceptional gain
pursuant to converting Vidarbha power project into an associate (from a subsidiary
earlier). Losses were accentuated by lower PLFs at Amarkantak II and Kondapalli I as
well as by a sub‐par performance at Udipi due to transmission bottlenecks and
operational inefficiencies.
Seasonal factors affect Griffin production
The management indicated that Q2 was a seasonally weak period hence there was
negligible production of coal. However, it maintained the guidance of ~AUD30mn
EBITDA for FY12 which could be higher if the power customer agrees to tariff hikes. We
have factored in ~ INR3.3bn losses from Griffin in our estimates.
Outlook and valuations: Softer issues persist; maintain BUY
We have recalibrated our earnings to factor in delay in commissioning Udipi and
Anpara as well as the slow progress in Babandh and Vidarbha projects. We also take
cognizance of higher losses in its already commissioned assets. The near term
headwinds in terms of transmission bottlenecks and a slow ramp up in coal production
have led us to cut our earnings estimates. While we maintain ‘BUY/Sector
Underperformer’ due to its significant asset value, we also note that the stock
performance will be impacted by investor concerns over accounting changes and legal
issues.

DEEPAK FERTILISERS Acquires DFV to scale up agri business :Edelweiss,

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Deepak Fertilizers (DFPCL) has announced acquisition of 49% stake (by
investing INR608mn via fresh issue of equity shares), with management
control, in Gujarat-based Desai Fruits And Vegetables (DFV). Based on our
analysis of DFV’s financial and operational history, we believe the
proposed acquisition is synergic to DFPCL’s agri-business. However,
considering the current deteriorating state of DFV’s balance sheet, scaling
it up at a faster pace and making it profitable would be a challenge.
Key highlights of DFV acquisition
• Currently, DFV‘s shareholding comprises ~10% by the Desai family and the balance
by an European strategic investor consortium, with the former managing operations.
• DFPCL will infuse INR608mn by way of fresh issue of equity shares over the next 30
months and the money will be utilised primarily to build infrastructure.
• Post DFPCL’s acquisition, the shareholding would be 49% DFPCL, ~5% promoters and
balance with European investors.
• DFV is India’s largest banana exporter, catering primarily to Middle East and Ukraine.
• During FY11, DFV reported a net revenue of INR388mn (FY10: INR419mn) and net
loss of INR274mn (FY10: loss of INR79mn), leading to increase in accumulated losses
in BS to INR610mn. DFV attributed subdued FY11 performance to exceptionally
inclement weather and lower banana prices. It received fresh equity infusion of
INR250mn during FY11.
• DFPCL’s investment values DFV at INR1,241mn, translating into 3.2x FY11 sales.
Outlook and valuations: Scaling up is vital; maintain ‘BUY’
We believe DFPCL will harness its relationship with farmers, financial muscle and
corporate culture to leverage the competence of DFV in contract farming of bananas,
and the acquisition will be synergic to the former’s Mahadhan Saarrthie strategy. The
cash infusion by DFPCL will be utilised for scaling up DFV’s operations. However,
considering consistent losses at DFV for the past six years, we believe bringing in
synergies will be time consuming and at 3.2x FY11 sales, the acquisition cost prices in
future growth. We maintain ‘BUY’ recommendation on DFPCL with a target price of
INR220 per share based on 4.5x FY13E EV/EBIDTA.

JINDAL SAW Margin suffers on GAIL order :: Edelweiss

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Jindal Saw’s (JSAW) Q2FY12 revenues at INR14.5bn were higher than the
estimated INR12.4bn due to a surge in sales volume at 241 KT (estimated
201 KT), largely sale of built‐up inventories in Q1FY12. However, EBITDA
margin at INR7,313/MT (the lowest in the last 15 quarters) was lower
than the estimated INR9,193/mt. During Q2FY12, JSAW executed 35‐40KT
of HSAW GAIL order which reported an operational loss of ~3%
(~INR1250/mt). Forex losses of INR483mn led to a lower PAT of
INR537mn vs the expected INR853mn. We have cut our FY12E/FY13E EPS
to INR12.2/16.8 from INR16.3/20.4 respectively to incorporate lower
sales volume and EBITDA margin. Maintain BUY with a new TP of INR238.
Pipes EBITDA lower at 7,313/MT, sales higher at 241 KT
High inventory carried over from Q1FY12 helped Q2FY12 sales volume surge to 241 KT (up
30.2% QoQ and 78.2% YoY), leading to revenues of INR14.5bn (+27.7% QoQ, +81.0% YoY).
The negative operational margin from the GAIL order led to lower blended SAW margin at
USD118/mt (in spite of LSAW reporting robust EBITDA margin of USD197/mt). The pending
GAIL order of 12‐14 KT has been executed in the first week of November 2011. DI margin at
USD131/mt was down 23.4% QoQ and 49.2% YoY due to higher coal prices
PAT hit by forex losses, order book at USD 490 KT
JSAW’s reported interest expenses at INR188mn were lower due to utilization of packing
and buyers credit. However, forex losses of INR483mn (INR300mn towards ECB loan and
the balance in trading loss) further dented PAT to INR537mn against our expectation of
INR853mn. Reported order book of USD665mn or 490 KT of pipes was down QoQ
(USD800mn or 665 KT as on Q1FY12) as there were no major orders reported during
Q2FY12. Order book break‐up: LSAW 100 KT, HSAW 200 KT, DI 150 KT and Seamless 40 KT.
Outlook and valuations: Awaiting start of iron ore mine; ‘BUY’
JSAW’s depleting order book and weak EBITDA margin have led us to cut FY12/FY13E EPS
by 25.2%/17.9% respectively. We also trim our target price by INR19/share (‐7.4%) to
INR238/share. Earnings growth will be driven by the start of iron‐ore mines which the
management expects to start in Q4FY12. We maintain ‘BUY/Sector Outperformer’ rating
on the stock. At INR136, JSAW trades at 11.2x and 8.1x our FY12 and FY13 EPS estimates