09 November 2011

BSE, Bulk deals, 9/11/2011

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Deal DateScrip CodeCompanyClient NameDeal Type *QuantityPrice **
9/11/2011590006Amrutanjan Health-$CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDB19223808.71
9/11/2011590006Amrutanjan Health-$CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDS19223808.33
9/11/2011532435Asia HR TechSANJAY KANAYALAL MAKHIJAB888724.63
9/11/2011532435Asia HR TechKAMAL KANAYALAL MAKHIJAB1000004.63
9/11/2011532435Asia HR TechHARESH KANAYALAL MAKHIJAB1000004.63
9/11/2011532435Asia HR TechDINESH KANAYALAL MAKHIJAB1000004.63
9/11/2011532435Asia HR TechMEENAKSHI MALAYANDIS4000004.63
9/11/2011507944Bajaj SteelCHIRAG BHARAT HUFS12495100.33
9/11/2011531358Choice IntlPRAVEEN KUMAR BANSALB10600056.39
9/11/2011531358Choice IntlFREA STATIONERY PRIVATE LIMITEDS13329356.44
9/11/2011531270Dazzel ConfYOGESHKUMAR SURESHBHAI PARMARS7839952.99
9/11/2011508860DIAMANTJINAL APURVA RAWALB26500015.86
9/11/2011509527Falcon Tyres-$PAM PAC MACHINES PRIVATE LIMITEDS21193732.15
9/11/2011533638FLEXITUFFR M SHARES TRADING PRIVATE LIMITEDB171242282.04

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 09-Nov-2011

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 09-Nov-2011 
 BUYSELLOPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY 
 No. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in Crores 
INDEX FUTURES789462084.88588391549.5955946814496.77535.29
INDEX OPTIONS47068912359.9647858212610.78158335841343.03-250.82
STOCK FUTURES623221595.98739451871.27117874928867.61-275.29
STOCK OPTIONS29157735.7129182733.6035241900.532.11
      Total11.27



--

NSE, Bulk deals, 9-Nov-2011

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DateSymbolSecurity NameClient NameBuy / SellQuantity TradedTrade Price /
Wght. Avg.
Price
Remarks
09-Nov-2011ABANAban Offshore Ltd.NOMURA MAURITIUS LIMITEDBUY2,25,000444.11-
09-Nov-2011AMRUTANJANAmrutajan Health LtdCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.BUY19,223808.10-
09-Nov-2011AMRUTANJANAmrutajan Health LtdCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.SELL19,223809.40-
09-Nov-2011BILBhartiya Intl LimitedHEENA GANDHIBUY1,50,40274.31-
09-Nov-2011BILBhartiya Intl LimitedHEENA GANDHISELL83,55174.86-
09-Nov-2011ECEINDECE Industries LimitedECE INDUSTRIES LTDBUY1,69,000134.50-
09-Nov-2011ECEINDECE Industries LimitedPAT Financial Consultants Pvt LtdBUY30,000114.50-

9/11/11: Categories Turnover (Rs. crore) Clients NRI Proprietary Trade Data

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Categories Turnover
(Rs. crore)
ClientsNRIProprietary
Trade DateBuySalesNetBuySalesNetBuySalesNet
9/11/111,873.191,762.44110.760.860.420.44503.41543.69-40.28
8/11/111,414.041,446.17-32.130.500.360.14387.51383.094.42
4/11/111,613.091,645.90-32.820.620.600.02450.63439.3211.31
Nov , 119,545.799,440.47105.325.214.550.672,720.392,717.772.62
Since 1/1/11422,764.04427,389.35-4,625.31301.86210.2191.65123,021.02122,182.31838.71

9/11/11: FII & DII Turnover (BSE + NSE) (Rs. crore)

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FII & DII Turnover (BSE + NSE)
(Rs. crore)
FIIDII
Trade DateBuySalesNetBuySalesNet
9/11/112,280.591,721.55559.04811.921,343.78-531.86
8/11/111,696.021,239.74456.28369.26746.73-377.47
4/11/112,256.562,127.94128.62938.47867.9870.49
Nov , 1111,501.2210,370.271,130.954,495.775,913.90-1,418.13
Since 1/1/11   *530,900.07547,746.36-16,846.29246,762.61226,135.2320,627.38

BUY Gujarat Gas Company - Results inline with expectation :: Emkay

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Gujarat Gas Company
Results inline with expectation


BUY

CMP: Rs 444                                       Target Price: Rs 481

n     GGCL reported results which were inline with our estimates with revenues at Rs.6.5bn and PAT at Rs0.8bn, mainly due to higher volume growth & better realisation during the quarter
n     EBIDTA at Rs.1.2bn, against Rs.0.9bn, growth of 30.4% YoY. Margin declined by 587.9.bps to 18% sequentially. Gross margin declined by 20% QoQ to Rs4.7/scm
n     Natural gas volume sold during the quarter was 326mmscm, growth of 8% QOQ and flat on YoY
n     Given its monopoly in cities of Gujarat, expected volume growth plus zero debt and robust business model with no commodity risk, We maintain BUY rating with TP of Rs.481

Hold Sterlite Industries; Target : Rs 135 ::ICICI Securities

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P e r f o r m a n c e   i m p a c t e d   b y h i g h e r   i n p u t   c o s t s …
Sterlite Industries’ (SIL) Q2FY12 results were broadly below our
expectation wherein higher input costs led to a decline in EBITDA
margins. The topline came at | 10133.8 crore (our estimate: | 9629.5
crore), which was 67% higher YoY and 3% higher QoQ. On the back of
higher input costs, the EBITDA margin, however, declined steeply by 350
bps YoY and 60 bps YoY to 24.5% (our estimate: 26.8%). The subsequent
EBITDA stood at | 2482 crore (our estimate: | 2580 crore), which was
62% higher YoY but 10% lower QoQ. The ensuing reported PAT stood at
| 997.8 crore (our estimate - | 1529.5 crore), which was 1% lower YoY
and 37% lower QoQ. The reported PAT during the quarter under review
was dented by foreign currency  losses. Due to unprecedented
depreciation of the INR, the net impact of foreign currency exchange
fluctuations during the quarter resulted in a loss of | 466 crore.
ƒ Subdued performance by aluminium and power businesses
The subdued performance of the aluminium and power businesses
during Q2FY12 impacted the overall performance of SIL. In the
aluminium business, during the quarter under review, Balco
reported a loss to the tune of | 17 crore while Vedanta Aluminium
(VAL) reported a loss of | 243 crore (SIL’s share). The subdued
performance was due to a steep rise in the cost of production
primarily on the back of higher coal costs. The energy business
reported a sharp decline in EBIT margins. During the quarter, the
EBIT margin further declined to  ~8.5% due to higher input cost
(coal), from 14.08% in Q1FY12 and 34.8% in Q2FY11.
V a l u a t i o n
On the back of an uncertain global environment and concerns with regard
to higher input costs, we have changed our assumptions for LME prices
and cost of production (CoP) and accordingly have reduced our target
multiples. At the CMP of | 124, after  adjusting for LME volatility in our
estimates, the stock is trading at FY13E PE of 6.9x and FY13E EV/EBITDA
of 2.8x on a consolidated basis. We have valued the stock on an SOTP
basis and reduced our target price to | 135. We have assigned a  HOLD
recommendation to the stock.

Accumulate Ashok Leyland : TP: Rs30 - Prabhudas Lilladher

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Ashok Leyland                    Accumulate             CMP: Rs27               TP: Rs30
Q2FY12 Result Update - Results above expectations
n  Good performance despite tough environment: Ashok Leyland (AL) reported growth of 14.0% YoY in its top-line at Rs30.9bn (PLe: Rs30.2bn). Volume for the quarter declined by 3.9% YoY, whereas average realisation grew by 18.7% YoY. Average realisation/vehicle was higher than our expectation on account of higher sales to the defence sector (Revenue of Rs1bn v/s Rs200m) and price hikes taken in previous quarters. Material cost/vehicle increased by 18.6% as against 18.7% improvement in average realization/vehicle. However, on account of 18.9% YoY increase in employee cost and 18.6% YoY growth in other expenditure, EBITDA for the quarter grew by only 8.1% YoY to Rs3.3bn (PLe: Rs3.0bn). On a QoQ basis, EBITDA improved by 90bps due to sequential decline of 50bps in other expenses. Interest expenses grew by 58.9% YoY on account of borrowing for higher working capital requirement. As a result, PAT for the quarter declined by 7.8% YoY to Rs1.54bn (PLe: Rs1.37m).
n  Loan funds increase substantially: There was an increase of Rs7.7bn in the loan funds as of September 2011, taking the total loans to Rs33bn. Out of this, around Rs6bn loan has been on account of working capital requirement.
n  Our volumes estimates: We maintain our volume estimate of 93K units for FY12E, lower than the management guidance of 1.0lac. We have assumed volumes of 8k units and 18k units of the new LCV ‘Dost’ in FY12E and FY13E, respectively. As a result, we expect 18.0% YoY growth in FY13E volumes.
n  Outlook & Valuation: Our ground level interaction with truckers suggests that in some pockets, fleet operators are postponing their purchase decision which could lead to muted growth in M&HCV segment in FY12E. In our view, the operating performance is likely to improve on account of higher sales from the tax-free Uttarakhand plant (~33% of overall domestic sales). Maintain ‘Accumulate’ on account of fair valuations of 9.9x FY13E EPS.


Prabhudas Lilladher 

Rallis India – 2Q impacted by fixed costs on Dahej ::RBS

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Rallis 2Q revenues grew 19%yoy to Rs4.36b and EBITDA grew 14%yoy to Rs1b, but higher
interest and depreciation charge (on Dahej start up) impacted net income with PAT up only
5%yoy to Rs619m. Debtors have jumped 80%yoy, which is surprising, and will likely be clarified
in analysts meet.


2Q operating performance good, but bottomline not so good
􀀟 2Q revenue grew by 19%yoy to Rs4365m on standalone basis, implying strong revenue
growth in market and in company portfolio. Subsidiary Metahelix had little revenues this
quarter due to seasonal factors, and thus consolidated rev was also up 19%yoy
􀀟 Standalone gross margin declined from 43% to 40%, possibly due to impact of rupee
depreciation on input costs. EBITDA margins declined 90bps to 23.1%, mitigated by lower
rise in other expenses.
􀀟 Net interest costs are up from Rs(12)m in 2QFY11 to Rs26m in 2QFY12 due to higher
working capital debt and Dahej commissioning.
􀀟 Depreciation up 75%yoy again due to full quarter impact of Dahej plant operations.
􀀟 Metahelix had little revenue but all costs due to off season in seeds. So, consolidated net
income flat at Rs585m while standalone net income up 5%yoy to Rs619m.
Surprisingly debtors up 85%yoy
􀀟 Consolidated debtors have jumped from Rs1.08b in 2QFY11 and Rs1.06b in FY11end to
Rs1.98b in 2QFY12. Rallis typically has been very tight on this metric and hence, it is a
negative unless there is some one off reason for the jump. We will clarify this in analyst meet
on Thursday.
􀀟 Higher debtors has also increased debt levels by 50% vs FY11 end.
Key factors to watch
􀀟 Dahej ramp up. How long will it take to cover up for fixed cost increase
􀀟 Any change in company policy on debtors, working capital
􀀟 We retain Buy and PT of Rs210.

Colgate-Palmolive Rich valuations… maintain Reduce ::Emkay,

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Colgate-Palmolive
Rich valuations… maintain Reduce

REDUCE

CMP: Rs1,003                                       Target Price: Rs826

n     Sales growth at 19% to Rs 6.6bn, higher than our expectations, is driven by 13% volume growth. APAT (ex-VRS of Rs82mn) at Rs 1.0 bn is marginally below our estimates
n     Volume market shares in key categories of toothpastes and toothbrush witness a decline – 70 bps to 53% and 420 bps and 36.3%, respectively
n     While higher realizations offset input cost pressure, higher A&P spends resulted in 196bps decline in operating margins to 18.4%.
n     Reduce FY12E/FY13E EPS by 4% and 9% to Rs 31.4 and Rs 34.3, respectively. Maintain our Reduce rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 826/share

Ashok Leyland - "Margins may spur a surprise,Upgrade to BUY" :: LKP

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Q2 results significantly better than expectations despite weakness in its forte
Ashok Leyland (ALL)’s Q2 FY12 performance was significantly above our expectations as volumes grew by 23% qoq while declining just 4% yoy. Net realizations grew by 18% yoy and 1% qoq, thus taking net sales up to Rs.30.9bn, a growth of 14% yoy. Volume growth in the quarter came in a difficult environment where most of the sub segments of ALL faced challenges. The strongholds of ALL, both geographically as well as segment-wise viz South India and tractor trailers & MAVs respectively reported weaknesses. In South India, issues related with elections in TN, mining ban in Karnataka and Telangana issues in AP resulted in drop in performances. Western region, which is the second strong geography of ALL, witnessed a drop in the tractor trailer industry of 20%. Drop in freight rates originating from South and East India led to softened demand in these regions. Management is concerned with the continuation of the same; however, strengthening freight rate movement in north and west may offset the weaknesses in other geographies.
Going forward, with the issues in South India getting resolved and ALL’s aggressive plans to increase its distribution in other geographies, the company may improve its lost market share. Management has projected its market share to move up to 25.6% from 20.2% in the period between Aprils-September 2011 period. Although we believe this is a bit too optimistic, we believe that 22-23% market share is quite achievable.
Seasonality and peaking of interest rates may lead to a volume growth close to 1 lakh for FY 12E
Easing up of South Indian markets, growing distribution strength in other markets, seasonality of strong H2 as compared to H1 and peaking out of interest rate cycle gives us confidence that the company may reach volumes close to 1,00,000 units, a growth of 5.6% yoy in line with management’s expectations. Increased sales of U truck (<2000 sold in H1, expectation of 6000 in H2) will help the cause. Additionally, strong export performance in H1 aided by Latin American and African countries is expected to continue. We expect 30%/24% yoy growth in exports in FY 12/FY13E.
Q2 margin performance may get repeated in the next two quarters
EBITDA margins of 11.2% adjusted for one of item of `150mn in other expenses(7.1% v/s 7.3% yoy and 8.1% qoq)  and declining raw material costs as a % of sales (73.5% v/s 73.7% yoy) led to sharp margin rise in Q2 FY12. Margins of 11.2% were higher by 140 bps qoq and just 10 bps lower yoy. Increased production of 9,000 units from the tax haven plant of Pantnagar also led to cost savings and support to margins. Going forward, with the management expecting to produce 20,000 units from this plant in H2, we expect higher benefits to accrue, thus improving margins. Given the falling raw material prices, improving volume performance and the impact of price hike of ~1% taken on November 1st, we believe that there would be a positive impact on margins going forward. Hence, the EBITDA margin for H1 which were at 10.5% is expected to move up to 10.7% above the management’s estimate of 10.5%. Reducing finished goods inventory (9000 v/s 10,100 at the end of Q1) will allow the company to improve its utilization rate further and reduce inventory bearing costs. Reduction in working capital costs will also have a positive impact on the bottom-line.
Outlook and valuation 
In view of robust Q2 performance and expectations of strong profitability and solid volume growth in H2, we are upgrading the stock to a BUY. At CMP of Rs.28, the stock is trading10x times its FY13E EPS of Rs.2.72. We value the stock at 12x times, which seems quite reasonable viewing the improving growth prospects. We have a target price of Rs.33, an upside of 17%.