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UBS Investment Research
Hindalco Industries
B enefits of Mahan expansion from FY14
Event: site visit to Mahan & Renukoot facilities—construction in progress
1) Hindalco expects to part commission (40 of 360 smelting pots at Mahan) by
December 2011 and the remaining by March 2013; full ramp-up in FY14. 2)
Management is optimistic that the Mahan coal block will be allotted; a key
decision is expected at the 8 October GoM meeting. 3) Cost of Production (CoP) at
Mahan could be as high as US$2,100/t without captive coal and bauxite from
Utkal; 4) Renukoot Al CoP is US$1,750/t and Alumina CoP is at US$270/t.
Impact: volume growth from Mahan/Utkal from FY14
We lower our alumina/aluminium volumes production and sales assumptions as: 1)
we forecast Mahan to contribute only 150kt in FY13 and fully ramp-up (359ktpa
capacity) in FY14; and 2) we forecast the Utkal refinery to start producing from
FY14. We assume Mahan will start contributing to earnings from FY14 given
ramp-up costs will be high in FY13. We also lower average blended ASP forecasts
for the aluminium business (assume slower ramp-up in downstream capacities as
well).
Action: cut consolidated FY13E/14E EBITDA 15%/20%; coal remains key
We lower our consolidated EBITDA estimates by 15-20% in FY13/14 and our EPS
estimates by 33-36% driven by a reduction in standalone EBITDA estimates by
33%/38% (by Rs16/27bn). At the current aluminium price of cUS$2,200, no
captive/linkage coal, and partial bauxite sourcing from third-party sources, Mahan
is unlikely to contribute positively.
Valuation: Buy with a price target of Rs180 (earlier Rs240)
We have a new sum-of-the-parts-based price target of Rs180 for Hindalco. We
value Hindalco’s Indian business at 5x FY13E EBITDA and Novelis at 6x FY13E
EBITDA and listed subsidiaries/investments at a 20/50% discount to market price.
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
UBS Investment Research
Hindalco Industries
B enefits of Mahan expansion from FY14
Event: site visit to Mahan & Renukoot facilities—construction in progress
1) Hindalco expects to part commission (40 of 360 smelting pots at Mahan) by
December 2011 and the remaining by March 2013; full ramp-up in FY14. 2)
Management is optimistic that the Mahan coal block will be allotted; a key
decision is expected at the 8 October GoM meeting. 3) Cost of Production (CoP) at
Mahan could be as high as US$2,100/t without captive coal and bauxite from
Utkal; 4) Renukoot Al CoP is US$1,750/t and Alumina CoP is at US$270/t.
Impact: volume growth from Mahan/Utkal from FY14
We lower our alumina/aluminium volumes production and sales assumptions as: 1)
we forecast Mahan to contribute only 150kt in FY13 and fully ramp-up (359ktpa
capacity) in FY14; and 2) we forecast the Utkal refinery to start producing from
FY14. We assume Mahan will start contributing to earnings from FY14 given
ramp-up costs will be high in FY13. We also lower average blended ASP forecasts
for the aluminium business (assume slower ramp-up in downstream capacities as
well).
Action: cut consolidated FY13E/14E EBITDA 15%/20%; coal remains key
We lower our consolidated EBITDA estimates by 15-20% in FY13/14 and our EPS
estimates by 33-36% driven by a reduction in standalone EBITDA estimates by
33%/38% (by Rs16/27bn). At the current aluminium price of cUS$2,200, no
captive/linkage coal, and partial bauxite sourcing from third-party sources, Mahan
is unlikely to contribute positively.
Valuation: Buy with a price target of Rs180 (earlier Rs240)
We have a new sum-of-the-parts-based price target of Rs180 for Hindalco. We
value Hindalco’s Indian business at 5x FY13E EBITDA and Novelis at 6x FY13E
EBITDA and listed subsidiaries/investments at a 20/50% discount to market price.