US Economy: Halfway to Nowhere  Citi Research

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Halfway to Nowhere
 Economic activity fared a little better than many feared in the third quarter with GDP
advancing at an estimated rate of 2% to 2½%. But growth remains too slow to
reduce unemployment or provide much lift to consumer confidence.
 Cyclical forces in the form of pent-up demand have been enough (with policy
support) to keep recovery going. Following earlier news of strong business
investment, solid auto sales in September provide the latest evidence that
temporary drags associated with supply line disruptions last spring may have
exaggerated signs that growth was faltering.
 Modest monthly private sector job gains averaging 117,000 in the third quarter have
further allayed worries about a new down leg. But cutbacks in state and local
employment and stagnant construction and financial sector hiring present lingering
obstacles to a healthy labor market. Although unemployment has steadied of late,
household employment gains have centered on part-time work, while measures of
long-term unemployment continue to worsen.

LOGISTICS ::Kotak Sec, Q2FY12 RESULTS PREVIEW

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LOGISTICS
Port volumes at 12 major ports in Q2FY12
Performance of Logistics companies involved with container rail business,
CFS business and related business is strongly linked to performance of the
port sector in the country. Port volumes in H1FY12 at the 12 major ports of
the country has grown to 280 mn tonnes ( +3% YoY) and container volumes
within that to 3.88 mn TEUS (+3% YOY). Minor ports like Mundra is
estimated to have grown much faster (14% CAGR). We expect the Logistics
companies in our coverage to report healthy growth in Q2FY12 (except
Concor).
Container Corporation of India (Accumulate: TP - Rs 1000)
n Q2FY12 consolidated revenue is expected to increase ~ 4 % YoY and increase ~
3% QoQ to Rs 9800 mn in sync with growth in volumes at major ports. It is important
to note here that Concor primarily operates in Exim segment out of JNPT.
n The domestic volumes of the company are estimated to report a YoY drop of
~10% in volumes. In the previous quarter Concor had reported a 13% YoY
decline in domestic volumes primarily led by new railway policy effective Dec-
2010. Railways increased the specified rating of five commodities (cement, stone
other than marbles, iron & steel, alloys & metals, POL products) leading to higher
haulage by 100% to 275%. This led to Concor losing almost the entire volumes
of these commodities to road transportation.
n Operating profit is expected at Rs 2635 mn which translates into an operating
margin of ~27 %, declining almost 100 bps YoY from 27.74% primarily due to
increased competition in the Exim segment (waning pricing power) and higher
haulage cost in domestic segment (not completely passed to customers till date).
n Net profit for Q2FY12 is expected at Rs.2325 mn against Rs 2342 mn in Q1FY12
(remaining flat) and Rs 2068 mn in Q2FY12.
n As the valuations had become little attractive during the quarter, we had
changed the rating of the stock from Reduce to Accumulate on 29 August 2011.
Gateway Distriparks Ltd (Buy: TP - Rs 160)
n We expect GDL's Q2FY12 revenues to increase~38% YoY and increase ~3%
QoQ to Rs 1880 mn. This we believe would be largely led by congestion at JNPT
and Chennai port (it leads to higher CFS volumes and realization) and improved
load factor in the rail business.
n The rail business is expected to report healthy load factor of 80% (previous year
~75%) with operating margin of 17%. This would be third consecutive quarter
for the rail business to report profits at net level.
n With improved CFS realizations (YoY) and robust rail performance we expect
GDL to report operating profit of Rs 640 mn which translates into an improved
operating margin of ~34 %, improving almost 600 bps YoY from ~ 27%.
n Net profit is expected at Rs 350 mn versus Rs 334 mn in Q1FY12 and Rs 205 mn
in Q2FY11.


Allcargo Global Logistics (Buy: TP - Rs 195)
n Q2FY12 consolidated revenue is expected to increase ~ 25% YoY and increase
3% QoQ to Rs 8,800 mn. Again the congestion at JNPT and Chennai port would
help the company report better numbers in the CFS business. ECU line and domestic
MTO business is also estimated to report 4% growth in volumes in line
with growth of global container volumes. However the realization should be under
pressure due to uncertainty in Eurozone.
n Operating profit is expected at Rs 1050 mn which translates into an operating
margin of ~11.93 %, falling marginally YoY from 11.98% primarily due to pricing
pressure in the key MTO business.
n Net profit is expected at Rs 650 mn against profit of Rs 665 mn in Q1FY12 and
profit of Rs 379 mn in Q2FY11.

CAPITAL GOODS & POWER :Kotak Sec, Q2FY12 RESULTS PREVIEW

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CAPITAL GOODS & POWER
The capital goods sector has continued to lose momentum into the second
quarter of FY12. Few pointers:
q For July 2011, capital goods index posted a muted growth of 3.3% YoY
and we expect to see moderation in the following months as well the
underlying investment trend is weak. Consumer durables grew at 8.6%
YoY in July 2011.
q The cost of projects which were sanctioned institutional assistance during
2010-11 aggregated Rs 4.6 trn, which is only marginally higher than
Rs 4.5 trn envisaged in 2009-10.
q In all likelihood, capital expenditure in 2011-12 is likely to be lower than
the previous year. (Source RBI)
q Fresh investments announced declined 45% YoY during the first five
months of the current fiscal. As against Rs 1.78 trn announced during
April-Aug 2010 period, only Rs 0.98 trn worth of projects were announced
during the corresponding period of the current fiscal, confirming
that the slowdown is indeed there in project investments. The decline
has also been witnessed in terms of number of projects announced.
q Major capital goods players have pointed out that apart from the policy
related bottlenecks, higher interest rates are resulting in longer project
finalisation cycle.
q Another area to monitor is the material prices which have been ruling
high (though they are off from highs). Managements have generally been
cautious on margin outlook.
Preview Highlights
n We expect aggregate revenue growth of 14% YoY in the second quarter, driven
mainly by BHEL, L&T, ABB, Siemens and Suzlon.
n Aggregate EBITDA is expected to grow at a rate of 14.6% yoy mainly driven by
BHEL, L&T and ABB.
n Aggregate PAT is expected to grow 19% YoY in Q2 FY12.
n By and large, we remain cautious on the capital goods sector in the near-term.
We reckon that valuations are now attractive from a historical perspective. However,
we note that the sector remains vulnerable to earnings downgrades. Remain
selective in our stock picks. Prefer Havells India, Voltas, Greaves Cotton,
Bharat Electronics and Bajaj Electricals.
Stock Performance
The capital goods sector remained an underperformer for the quarter. Weak order
intake and elevated material prices were among the major concerns, which led to
the derating of sector. Sector heavyweights, L&T and BHEL lost a chunk of their
value in the quarter. Voltas and Blue Star suffered derating post their disappointing
Q1 FY12 numbers.

Goldman Sachs:: Key Things to Watch: October 10 – October 16

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In China, we expect CPI inflation to remain elevated in September, while exports growth is likely to show moderation. On the
central bank policy front, we expect the Bank of Korea and Bank Indonesia to stay on hold and the Monetary Authority of
Singapore to shift to a neutral SGD stance. In the US, retail sales would be key to watch for the latest trends in consumer
spending.
China
Money and credit (Sep) (Oct 10-15)
Trade (Sep) (Oct 13)
CPI, PPI (Sep) (Oct 14)
CPI inflation likely remained elevated in September
 We expect CPI inflation to remain elevated in September because of sticky food
prices. The yoy growth is likely to be largely comparable to that in August and
probably slightly higher by 0.1 ppt or 0.2 ppt.
 The yoy PPI is likely to show a visible softening as upstream prices have remained
weak while last year’s base rose significantly.
 We believe the amount of loans extended in September is likely to be slightly
higher than that in August (Rmb544 billion).
 Exports growth is likely to show some moderation. Although last September’s base
was still low, we believe its sequential growth is likely to fall after showing very
robust growth in August which was probably an anomaly.
India
Industrial production (Aug) (Oct 12)
WPI (Sep) (Oct 14)
Industrial production likely stayed weak in August
 We expect industrial production (IP) growth to remain weak at 4.5% yoy in August
on the back of the poor performance of various activity indicators like the
Infrastructure Index, the PMI etc.
 We expect September WPI inflation to likely come at 9.8% yoy, same as in August,
mainly due to the rise in the prices of primary articles, especially food. The Fuel
Index also went up after an increase in petrol prices.
Korea
Central bank policy meeting (Oct 13)
We expect the Monetary Policy Committee to stay on hold in October
 We do not expect the Bank of Korea to raise the policy rate in the October
Monetary Policy Committee meeting, given the elevated financial stress in Europe.
Singapore
Central bank policy meeting (Oct 14)
Advance GDP (3Q) (Oct 14)
Retail sales (Aug) (Oct 14)
A shift to a ‘neutral’ SGD stance
 We now think that an even greater reduction of the slope to a 0% appreciation
stance is the most likely scenario, in light of the increased downside risks to growth
and given where the SGD NEER is currently trading.
 A shift to a ‘neutral’ SGD stance is therefore now our baseline forecast for the
Monetary Authority of Singapore meeting in October.
Indonesia
Central bank policy meeting (Oct 11)
Bank Indonesia likely to keep rates on hold
 We expect Bank Indonesia to keep rates on hold at 6.75% at their upcoming
meeting. We have also now removed the rate hikes previously forecasted for next
year—we now expect the central bank to keep rates unchanged through 2012.
Philippines
Exports (Aug) (Oct 11)
The Philippines’ exports to sustain its weak trend
 The Philippines’ exports remained weak in July, again dragged down by the poor
performance in electronic exports. We forecast August exports to fall 4.0% yoy,
versus the consensus expectations of a 4.4% yoy decline.
US
FOMC minutes (Oct 11)
Advance retail sales (Sep) (Oct 14)
September retail sales key to watch for the latest trends in consumer spending
 Retail sales weaker than expected in August. Hurricane Irene possibly a small
negative, though the mix of components does not clearly indicate that it was the
only factor depressing sales
Japan
Machinery orders (Aug) (Oct 12)
Economy Watchers Survey (Sep) (Oct 11)
Private-sector machinery orders likely rose in August
 We expect private-sector machinery orders (excluding those from the shipbuilding
and electric power sectors) to rise 2.1% mom in August. This compares to a fall of
8.2% in July, but the trend remains lacklustre.
 Supply-side sentiment has been boosted by the transition to terrestrial digital
broadcasts and energy-saving related demand, but we think the effect of this is
wearing off. We forecast a further lowering of consumer sentiment to 44.0 in
September from 45.2 in August.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 10-Oct-2011

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 10-Oct-2011
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	77026	1854.74	60960	1496.84	518599	12784.06	357.91
INDEX OPTIONS	449382	11003.98	452907	10978.31	1729503	43055.08	25.67
STOCK FUTURES	66497	1626.03	62096	1548.70	1104782	26466.54	77.33
STOCK OPTIONS	13307	317.45	12853	308.80	36601	905.94	8.65
						Total	469.56

 

 

-- 

Riskless Double Digit Return by Popular Companies

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Attractive FD schemes from popular Companies to suit Investors looking forsafety with decent return.

 

1.  Dewan Housing Finance Corporation Ltd - Aashray Deposit 400 days 

      -----------------------------------------------------------------------    

Engaged in Housing Finance.  Consistent profit making and Dividend paying Company. PAT for 2010/11 of Rs.265 Crs. & Dividend of 35%.  "FAAA" by BWR & "(AA+FD)" rating by CARE.   10.75% interest for 400 Days Deposit giving an yield of around 11.12%. 0.50% additional interest for Senior Citizens.

2.  HDFC Platinum Deposits

      -------------------------

Engaged in Housing Finance.  Consistent profit making and Dividend paying Company. PAT for 2010/11 of Rs.3,535 Crs. & Dividend of 450%.  "FAAA" rating by CRISIL & "MAAA" by ICRA.   10% interest for 15 months & 33 months Deposits. 0.25% additional interest for Senior Citizens.

3.  Mahindra Finance Samruddhi

     ------------------------------  

Largest Company of our Country in non-banking finance companies with a history of 20 years. Consistent profit making and Dividend paying Company. PAT for 2010/11 of Rs.464 Crs. & Dividend of 100%. "FAAA" rating by CRISIL.   10.50% interest for a 3 years Deposit giving an yield of around 11.64%. 0.25% additional interest for Senior Citizens.

4.  Shriram Transport Unnati

      --------------------------

Largest Company of our Country in Commercial Vehicle Finance with a history of 30 years. Consistent Profit making & Dividend paying Company.   PAT for 2010/11 of Rs.1230 Crs. & Dividend of 65%. "FAA+/stable" rating by CRISIL & "MAA+/stable" by ICRA.   10.75% interest for a 3 years Deposit giving an yield of around 12%.

AUTOMOBILE ::Kotak Sec, Q2FY12 RESULTS PREVIEW

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AUTOMOBILE
Two wheelers and LCV's outperformed in the quarter gone by
Volumes for the auto manufacturers were impacted due to unfavorable macro factors.
Reserve Bank of India continued with the trend of raising key rates. Rising interest
rates had a negative bearing on M&HCV and passenger car sales whose exposure
to credit sales is relatively higher as against other segment slowing economy
too played a role in restricting M&HCV and passenger car sales. Increasing petrol
prices further dampened car demand during the quarter. Two wheeler sales remained
relatively less impacted because of 1.High cash sales 2.Rural exposure and
3.Better fuel efficiency. Accordingly, the 2W players posted YoY volume growth in
the range of 15-20%. LCV sales remained robust during the quarter which strong
demand coming in from rural India. Slowing car demand and month long strike at
one of its plants led to 20% YoY dip in volumes for Maruti. Ashok Leyland is expected
to report marginal YoY decline in volumes. Exports during the quarter remained
strong for majority of the companies. Duty Entitlement Pass Book (DEPB)
scheme came to an end this quarter and is replaced by less attractive duty draw
back scheme.


Reported net profit to come down both YoY and QoQ
We expect the reported net profit of companies under our auto coverage to decline
by 6.4% YoY and 3.7% QoQ. On YoY basis, we expect TVSM to report 15% jump
in reported PAT and QoQ we expect Ashok Leyland to report 63% increase in PAT.
Key points to watch out for…
n Ashok Leyland (ALL) - Unfavorable macro factors are impacting the company's
volumes. ALL's YTD volumes are down by 4%. Volume de-growth and high input
cost expected to keep margins lower YoY during the quarter.
n Bajaj Auto (BAL) - 2QFY11 was a strong one for the company on volumes front.
However, slowing premium segment sales and launch of entry level motorcycle
are expected to marginally impact the company's operating margin.
n Hero Moto Corp (HMC) - Volumes during the quarter grew at a rapid pace outperforming
its peers. Operating margins of the company have remained under
pressure for the past few quarters and we expect the same to continue on account
of re-branding related cost incurred during the quarter.
n TVS Motor (TVSM) - TVS Motors surprised last quarter with improvement in
their operating margins. With healthy volumes during 2QFY11, repeat of 1QFY11
margin performance will help the company post strong profits during the quarter.
n Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) - For MSIL, 2QFY11 was a difficult one with strike
hampering production at the company's Manesar plant. We expect some impact
of the strike on the company's margin during the quarter under review.
n Escorts - After reporting a steep YoY decline in tractor sales in 3QFY11 (Sept
year end), the company's volumes in 4QFY11 have shown some recovery. However
the company's policy of completely expensing some cost during 4Q will
keep margins under pressure

BSE, Bulk deals, 10/10/2011

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Deal Date	Scrip Code	Company	Client Name	Deal Type *	Quantity	Price **
10/10/2011	590006	Amrutanjan Health-$	Quadeye Securities Pvt Ltd	B	17003	747.04
10/10/2011	590006	Amrutanjan Health-$	CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED	B	19108	752.31
10/10/2011	590006	Amrutanjan Health-$	A K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTD	B	39336	752.42
10/10/2011	590006	Amrutanjan Health-$	CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED	S	19108	753.13
10/10/2011	590006	Amrutanjan Health-$	Quadeye Securities Pvt Ltd	S	17003	747.38
10/10/2011	590006	Amrutanjan Health-$	A K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTD	S	39336	752.65
10/10/2011	531560	Aroma Enterprises	AASHISH DEVELOPER	B	48000	70.00
10/10/2011	590061	Brushman India-$	CNI RESEARCH LIMITED	B	407000	2.85
10/10/2011	590061	Brushman India-$	SAINATH HERBAL CARE MARKETING PRIVATE LIMITED	S	407026	2.85
10/10/2011	532658	EON ELECT	EON ELECTRIC LIMITED	B	161995	65.00
10/10/2011	532658	EON ELECT	CITIGROUP GLOBAL MARKETS MAURITIUS PRIVATE LIMITED	S	162219	65.00
10/10/2011	532139	G Tech Info	MONAECUM PROPERTIES PRIVATE LIMITED	B	1258590	0.77
10/10/2011	532139	G Tech Info	AILISH TRADERS PRIVATE LIMITED	S	1500000	0.77
10/10/2011	531137	Gemstone Invest	KIRAN BHIKU BHANAES	B	481000	8.67
10/10/2011	531055	GFLFIN	ASHISH CHHAWCHHARIA	B	23000	105.10
10/10/2011	531055	GFLFIN	JCC HOLDING PRIVATE LIMITED	B	19000	106.00
10/10/2011	531055	GFLFIN	WALTZ TRACOM PVT LTD	B	15000	106.00
10/10/2011	531055	GFLFIN	MINALBEN RAJESHKUMAR SHAH	S	20000	106.00
10/10/2011	531744	Gini Silk-$	RAMAKANT MANGALCHAND GAGGAR	B	40100	37.73
10/10/2011	531744	Gini Silk-$	CHARU SHARAD RATHI	B	100766	37.22
10/10/2011	531744	Gini Silk-$	RAMAKANT MANGALCHAND GAGGAR	S	40100	37.10
10/10/2011	531744	Gini Silk-$	SURESH GAGGAR	S	100000	37.47
10/10/2011	506128	Krishna Deep	MANOJ JAIN HUF	B	23500	128.10
10/10/2011	506128	Krishna Deep	ASHA RAJGARHIA	B	25000	130.00
10/10/2011	506128	Krishna Deep	MANOJ JAIN HUF	S	24800	130.00
10/10/2011	531134	LE WATERINA	KAMAL KUMAR BARARIA	S	345000	9.34
10/10/2011	533343	Lovable Lingerie	A K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTD	B	100725	455.30
10/10/2011	533343	Lovable Lingerie	A K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTD	S	100725	455.80
10/10/2011	519279	Madhur Inds	GAURANGSINH GHANDHAMSINGH CHUDASAMA	B	21000	73.68
10/10/2011	590117	Mahaveer Infoway-$	MILKWAY MERCANTILES PRIVATE LIMITED	B	35235	22.99
10/10/2011	590117	Mahaveer Infoway-$	MILKWAY MERCANTILES PRIVATE LIMITED	S	35235	22.96
10/10/2011	531597	Midland Poly	BRIJMOHAN CHANDULAL	S	31600	27.14
10/10/2011	511734	Pasupati Fin	AMIT KRISHNAKANT THAKKER	B	30000	15.88
10/10/2011	500329	Pentamedia Grap	KANWALJIT SINGH BHATIA	B	79207	1.32
10/10/2011	512481	Polytex India	KIRAN BHIKU BHANAES	B	77967	124.96
10/10/2011	533605	PRAKASH CON	CHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS PRIVATE LIMITED	B	191282	174.56
10/10/2011	533605	PRAKASH CON	GKN SECURITIES	B	114493	175.48
10/10/2011	533605	PRAKASH CON	CHAMPAKLAL NARSHIBHAI PUJARA	B	72734	179.49
10/10/2011	533605	PRAKASH CON	R M SHARES TRADING PRIVATE LIMITED	B	93556	173.73
10/10/2011	533605	PRAKASH CON	A K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTD	B	182247	175.08
10/10/2011	533605	PRAKASH CON	Quadeye Securities Pvt Ltd	B	222893	175.40
10/10/2011	533605	PRAKASH CON	Quadeye Securities Pvt Ltd	S	222893	175.45
10/10/2011	533605	PRAKASH CON	A K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTD	S	182247	175.12
10/10/2011	533605	PRAKASH CON	CHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS PRIVATE LIMITED	S	191282	175.32
10/10/2011	533605	PRAKASH CON	GKN SECURITIES	S	114493	175.45
10/10/2011	533605	PRAKASH CON	R M SHARES TRADING PRIVATE LIMITED	S	93556	174.02
10/10/2011	532866	Quintegra Sol	CNI RESEARCH LIMITED	B	595102	2.85
10/10/2011	532866	Quintegra Sol	SAINATH HERBAL CARE MARKETING PRIVATE LIMITED	S	601100	2.85
10/10/2011	500357	Rama Paper	MANISHA VIKAS SHINDE	B	41118	105.63
10/10/2011	500357	Rama Paper	PREM REWACHAND BUDHRANI	S	50000	105.73
10/10/2011	530923	RCL FOODS	MOEZ AKBAR MUSCATWALLA	B	24500	88.78
10/10/2011	530923	RCL FOODS	MOEZ AKBAR MUSCATWALLA	S	24500	87.90
10/10/2011	530923	RCL FOODS	MANISHA VIKAS SHINDE	S	50050	89.04
10/10/2011	530923	RCL FOODS	BHAGWATI PRASAD JALAN	S	46000	88.58
10/10/2011	533608	RDB RASAYAN	BMD EXPORTS PRIVATE LIMITED	B	416196	22.35
10/10/2011	533608	RDB RASAYAN	STOCK BROKERS SHASWAT	B	166457	22.00
10/10/2011	533608	RDB RASAYAN	PRAKASHBHAI ISHWARBHAI RANA	B	201235	21.75
10/10/2011	533608	RDB RASAYAN	MULTIPLIER SHARE & STOCK ADVISORS PRIVATE LIMITED	B	99782	21.45
10/10/2011	533608	RDB RASAYAN	MULTIPLIER SHARE & STOCK ADVISORS PRIVATE LIMITED	S	119772	22.10
10/10/2011	533608	RDB RASAYAN	B M TRADERS	S	89212	21.68
10/10/2011	533608	RDB RASAYAN	PRAKASHBHAI ISHWARBHAI RANA	S	91235	21.40
10/10/2011	533608	RDB RASAYAN	STOCK BROKERS SHASWAT	S	166457	21.88
10/10/2011	533608	RDB RASAYAN	SAMIRKUMAR DIPAKBHAI SHAH	S	170000	22.30
10/10/2011	533608	RDB RASAYAN	BMD EXPORTS PRIVATE LIMITED	S	269285	21.87
10/10/2011	503162	Reliance Chem-$	MODERN FIBOTEX INDIA LIMITED	S	18349	142.73
10/10/2011	531447	ROCKON FIN	S A ENTERPRISES	S	850000	3.85
10/10/2011	533301	Shekhawati Poly-Yarn	SATYAPRABHU INFRASTRUCTURE PRIVATE LIMITED	B	131265	23.00
10/10/2011	533301	Shekhawati Poly-Yarn	ARPIT LAKHMENDRA KHURANA	S	131265	23.00
10/10/2011	531433	Sungold Cap	VIJAYBHAI KANUBHAI THAKOR	S	70178	10.49
10/10/2011	532301	Tata Coffee	A K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTD	B	281422	887.21
10/10/2011	532301	Tata Coffee	CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED	B	109554	877.19
10/10/2011	532301	Tata Coffee	CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED	S	109554	879.60
10/10/2011	532301	Tata Coffee	A K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTD	S	281422	887.36
10/10/2011	530109	Vantage Corp	REKHA KISHOR SHAH	B	25000	8.06
10/10/2011	530109	Vantage Corp	KIRTAN A SHAH	S	18851	8.19
10/10/2011	531950	Vertex Sec	AJAY MULTI PROJECTS LIMITED	S	50000	237.00
* B - Buy, S - Sell
** = Weighted Average Trade Price / Trade Price