14 September 2011

MUST READ: UBS: India Mid-Caps TOP PICKS - September 2011


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CLICK on company name below for details


Apollo Hospital Enterprise



Hathway Cable


Havells


HT Media

Jai Balaji

TV18 Broadcast

Jagran Prakashan 



Jindal Saw



Monnet Ispat 


Motherson Sumi

Petronet LNG

Pidilite Industries


Sintex Industries

Tata Chemicals 

Triveni Engineering

Tube Investments

United Phosphorus

Voltas 

VIP Industries

Welspun Corp



CLICK on company name above for details

How do we pick stocks ?
Our approach is to keep screening about 150-200 stocks top down on fundamental/valuation
parameters, meet companies and then pick up bottom up ideas. These ideas can be:
1. Secular themes in agri, consumption, healthcare, industrials.
2. Market leaders in small industries, sometimes with strong brands
3. Special Situations - Turnaround stories, value unlocking, regulatory catalysts, SOTP
4. Short-term positions where we see industry cycle bottoming out and stocks cheap
5. Huge resources like coal and cheap stocks


Stick with winners
•Which companies displayed earnings resilience in the last downcycle?
We analyzed the financials of our 33-stock mid-cap coverage during the last macro downcycle
(Q3 FY09-Q2 FY10). We find the most resilient earnings for companies which are: 1) market
leaders with a strong/niche brand (Exide, Havells, Emami); 2) exposed to non-cyclical demand
like agri/healthcare/city-gas (Coromandel, Apollo Hospitals); and 3) present in nascent highgrowth
markets like Dish TV.
•How did our coverage mid-cap stocks perform in the last downcycle?
Most of the companies displaying earnings resilience outperformed the Sensex and BSE Mid-
Cap Index over September 2008 to March 2009. However, all these stocks were down on an
absolute basis; the Sensex/BSE Mid-Cap Index was down 33%/49%.
•2011 YTD performance of our mid-cap stocks selectively impressive
2011 YTD stock price performance also continues to be above trend, arguably also because of
some macro uncertainty. The index of our mid-cap stocks coverage has outperformed the
Sensex/BSE Mid-cap Index by 8%/12% but performance has been much dispersed.
•Conclusion—continue to stick with winners
We prefer to stick with winners who have displayed resilience in earnings and stock price in the
last downcycle and have continued to do so recently.
—Top 10 mid-cap ideas: Coromandel, Exide, Havells, VIP, Triveni, Motherson, Emami, Dish TV,
DB Corp, Pidilite.
— Other ideas: Carborundum, Chola Finance, Tube Investments, Jai Balaji


What are companies saying ?
•We hosted senior management of 27 companies in meetings with about 100 investors at UBS’s
first India Mid-Cap Conference.
•Most popular company meetings (in terms of number of investors met) were Coromandel,
Exide, Havells, Motherson, Pidilite, Apollo Tyres, Triveni, TI, Chola.
•Barring one, all companies’ management exuded a confident outlook for FY12 as well as over
the medium term, despite concerns on macro environment.
•They remain confident on maintaining margins in FY12, despite input price pressures,
indicating confidence in pricing power.
•Expansion projects are on track, so is turnaround/restructuring in some cases



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BSE, Bulk deals, 14/9/2011

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Deal DateScrip CodeCompanyClient NameDeal Type *QuantityPrice **
14/9/2011517356ACI InfocomACELERE BROKINGB10800043.35
14/9/2011517356ACI InfocomSKM CAPITAL & HOLDINGS PRIVATE LIMITEDS12000043.35
14/9/2011522150Aditya ForgeJACOB CVS240008.51
14/9/2011524760Arvind Intl-$HARSHA MAYURBHAI SHETHB8518520.66
14/9/2011530187Atharv EnterSURBHI BAJORIAB2401025.60
14/9/2011530187Atharv EnterTRUSHA PRANAY MEHTAS2100025.60
14/9/2011533469Birla Pacific Medspamanoj kumar samdariaB115000021.50
14/9/2011533469Birla Pacific MedspaV P PATELS69985821.53
14/9/2011531420BMB MusicASHISH MEHRAB522008.17
14/9/2011531420BMB MusicARVIND KUMAR AGRAWALS522008.17
14/9/2011531358Choice IntlRISING STOCK TRADE PRIVATE LIMITEDB6750985.27
14/9/2011531358Choice IntlNARENDRA KUMAR CHIRANIAB4000087.61
14/9/2011531358Choice IntlBHAWARLAL JAJOOB4300087.21
14/9/2011531358Choice IntlYATIRAJA DEVELOPERS PRIVATE LIMITEDS4007288.35
14/9/2011531358Choice IntlANIL ANANT MAHADIKS4264288.42
14/9/2011511672Clarus FinanceDEVSAR VYAPAAR PRIVATE LIMITEDB90000137.99
14/9/2011511672Clarus FinanceKAUSHIK SHAH SHARES & SEC. LTDB150000132.50
14/9/2011511672Clarus FinanceKAUSHIK SHAH SHARES & SEC. LTDS150000138.00
14/9/2011511672Clarus FinanceSWAGATAM TRADEVIN LTDS100000136.63
14/9/2011530755Coral NewsKAILASH CHANDRAB352004.96
14/9/2011530755Coral NewsENAAM SECURITIESS420004.96
14/9/2011531367Dollex IndsDAIZY AGROTECH PRIVATE LIMITEDS2889784.80
14/9/2011532876EVERONNJMP SECURITIES PVT LTDB111796274.78
14/9/2011530337Exelon InfraSHAISHIL TUSHARKUMAR JHAVERIB24842875.59
14/9/2011530337Exelon InfraMILKWAY MERCANTILES PRIVATE LIMITEDB7034769.92
14/9/2011530337Exelon InfraMAKKENA RAMA KRISHNAB7500070.75
14/9/2011530337Exelon InfraNITESH KUMAR KABRA HUFS8800053.05
14/9/2011530337Exelon InfraSHAISHIL TUSHARKUMAR JHAVERIS18932272.57
14/9/2011530337Exelon InfraVIPUL VIRENDRAKUMAR PATELS8500070.68
14/9/2011531137Gemstone InvestMANISH SURESH JOSHIS3798009.00
14/9/2011500160GTLAMPLE HOTELS AND RESORTS PVT LTDB50831162.50
14/9/2011500160GTLCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDB61934462.25
14/9/2011500160GTLA K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTDB64670562.52
14/9/2011500160GTLCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDS61942862.39
14/9/2011500160GTLAMPLE HOTELS AND RESORTS PVT LTDS50831162.49
14/9/2011500160GTLA K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTDS64670562.51
14/9/2011524754Gujarat MediPRABHAWATI DEVI JAINB5000016.40
14/9/2011524754Gujarat MediPRATEEK JAINB5000016.40
14/9/2011524754Gujarat MediGOLD DUST TRADING COB5000015.25
14/9/2011524754Gujarat MediSUNNY RASHMIKANT THAKKARS13500016.10
14/9/2011524754Gujarat MediPREMIER EXIM SERVICES PVT LTDS2650015.25
14/9/2011500204India SecESSAR CAPITAL LIMITEDB4800000061.95
14/9/2011500204India SecESSAR TELEHOLDINGS LIMITEDS4800000061.95
14/9/2011530955Kailash FicomPARACHIT SALES & MKT SERVICESS7539933.99
14/9/2011530955Kailash FicomDASH PHARMACEUTICALS PVT LTDS7200034.47
14/9/2011530165Kanchan IntlDHARMENDRA HARILAL BHOJAKB2750249.49
14/9/2011531401Khodiyar IndsS S SECURITIESS475794.92
14/9/2011506128Krishna DeepPARSEE LEASING AND FINVEST LIMITEDB40000134.53
14/9/2011533343Lovable LingerieR M SHARES TRADING PRIVATE LIMITEDB103990529.43
14/9/2011533343Lovable LingerieA K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTDB85815530.16
14/9/2011533343Lovable LingerieA K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTDS85815530.22
14/9/2011533343Lovable LingerieR M SHARES TRADING PRIVATE LIMITEDS103990529.01
14/9/2011526045Luminaire TechNITESH KUMAR KABRAB2569747.03
14/9/2011526045Luminaire TechTRADEWIN EXPORTS PRIVATE LIMITEDS1322007.04
14/9/2011523248Machino Plast-$MACHINO TRANSPORT PVT LTDB20000051.50
14/9/2011523248Machino Plast-$MACHINO FINANCE PVT LTDS20000051.50
14/9/2011531597Midland PolyMUKESH GUPTAB2000033.05
14/9/2011531597Midland PolyMEENU AJMERAB4000033.05
14/9/2011531597Midland PolyMUKUT BEHARI AGARWALB6500033.05
14/9/2011531597Midland PolyANURAG AGARWALB4000033.05
14/9/2011531597Midland PolyATUL JAINB3000033.05
14/9/2011531597Midland PolySUDHIR LAKHOTIAS28000033.05
14/9/2011532641Nandan EximCHIRIPAL INDUSTRIES LIMITEDB45549072.63
14/9/2011532641Nandan EximSAVITRIDEVI VEDPRAKASH CHIRIPALS45549072.63
14/9/2011526723NTC IndSHEETAL DUGARB8173125.20
14/9/2011526723NTC IndGUNNY CHEM TEX INDIA LIMITEDS8295425.20
14/9/2011505525Parichay InvestSAURAVB1100017.38
14/9/2011505525Parichay InvestSAJJANKUMAR MAHABIRPRASAD PARASRAMPURIAB620018.00
14/9/2011511702Parsharti InvSANJAY OMPAL SIDHUS2018234.00
14/9/2011531769PFL InfotechSURESH KHEMKAB48794476.14
14/9/2011533470Rushil DecorJINESH HARESH SHAHB75000156.50
14/9/2011533470Rushil DecorVICKY RAJESH JHAVERIB73376156.36
14/9/2011533470Rushil DecorVICKY RAJESH JHAVERIS73376155.39
14/9/2011533470Rushil DecorJAYNEEL SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITEDS87946156.79
14/9/2011533470Rushil DecorEXCEL MERCANTILE PRIVATE LIMITEDS158101156.36
14/9/2011533411Sanghvi ForgingPRUDENTIAL STOCK AND SECURITIES LIMITEDS12500029.50
14/9/2011512417Sharp TradingKUNAL NEMCHAND CHHEDAB1500168.54
14/9/2011530651Softech InfARVIND DAHYABHAI PRAJAPATIS2064067.69
14/9/2011533553TD POWERA K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTDB175869313.66
14/9/2011533553TD POWERA K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTDS175869313.77
14/9/2011590111VAISHNAVIANITHA MARADANIB11367914.96
14/9/2011590111VAISHNAVIMATURI SUDHAKARS10559815.38
14/9/2011590111VAISHNAVIANITHA MARADANIS9514015.57
14/9/2011532677Vikash MetalINDRAVARUN TRADE IMPEX PVT LTDB66439111.78
14/9/2011532677Vikash MetalJMP SECURITIES PVT LTDB48210511.93
14/9/2011532677Vikash MetalJMP SECURITIES PVT LTDS48210511.98
14/9/2011532677Vikash MetalINDRAVARUN TRADE IMPEX PVT LTDS65839111.64
* B - Buy, S - Sell
** = Weighted Average Trade Price / Trade Price
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