23 August 2011

UBS:: Reliance Communication - Wireless shows signs of improvement

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UBS Investment Research
Reliance Communication Limited
W ireless shows signs of improvement
􀂄 Event: 1QFY12 Net income miss on higher finance charges
Consol revenues came in at Rs49.4bn vs. UBS-e/consensus of Rs54.4bn/Rs54.9bn.
EBITDA for 1Q was Rs16.0bn vs UBS-e/consensus of Rs16.9bn/Rs16.6bn.
EBITDA margins came in 150bps ahead of UBS-e at 32.4%. Net income came in
at Rs1.57bn vs. Rs3.58bn mainly on account of one time forex and derivative costs
(financial charges of Rs4.1bn vs. UBS-e Rs2.1bn in 1Q).
􀂄 Impact: Wireless showing signs of improvement/reviewing estimates
Wireless revenues/EBITDA at Rs43.3bn/Rs11.7bn came in 1.9%/0.5% ahead of
UBS-e driven by strong qoq growth in mins on the network at 3.0% (vs. UBS-e
1.1%). We estimate voice RPM is stabilizing at ~35.5p/min for RCOM. We are
currently reviewing our estimates. Our present consol. revenue/EBITDA/net
income estimates for FY12 are Rs228bn/Rs73bn/Rs16.7bn, respectively.
􀂄 Action: Reiterate Buy with a PT of Rs200
The key risk to our thesis on RCOM is poor execution. News-flow related to the
Infratel stake sale is likely to be a near-term catalyst for the stock performance, in
our view.
􀂄 Valuation: Maintain Buy
Our PT of Rs200 is SoTP based with Reliance Infratel valued at Rs66 per share. At
current levels, we believe RCom offers excellent risk reward for investors with a
higher risk appetite.


Key takeaways from conference call
􀁑 The company saw second consecutive quarter of 3%+ growth in minutes on
the network translating to 3%+ growth in wireless revenues driven by focus
on removal of free minutes from the system. Management said 75-80% of
free minutes have been removed and the process will get completed by the
end of 2QFY12.
􀁑 Net income for the quarter was down primarily due to 81% increase in
financial charges on account of higher forex and derivative costs.
Management said baseline interest costs saw only a marginal increase.
􀁑 GEBU revenues/EBITDA were down sequentially due to one-time impact of
change in accounting policy related to IRUs in 4QFY11.
􀁑 Management reiterated its capex guidance of Rs15bn in FY12. Management
said that majority of capex has already taken place with the remaining being
part of on-going maintenance capex which it expects to fund through internal
accruals
􀁑 The company has launched 3G services in 333+ cities and does not expect to
further increase coverage in its licensed 13 service areas. Coverage
expansion is expected through network sharing agreements with other
operators.
􀁑 The company hiked GSM on/off-net and CDMA off-net tariffs in 18-19
service areas and expects full revenue impact as subscribers move to new
plans over next 6 months. The company has not changed on-net CDMA
tariffs.
􀁑 Management expects controlling stake sale in Reliance Infratel to get
completed in next 2-3 months if everything proceeds as planned. At present
detailed due diligence is in process with interested parties. With this
transaction management expects to bring down its debt by half.


􀁑 Reliance Communication Limited
Reliance Communications (RCOM) was formed in the wake of the
reorganisation of the Reliance group. RCOM's businesses have been structured
into three strategic business units (SBUs)-wireless, global and broadband. The
mobile services group provides CDMA mobile services across India in 23
telecom circles, and GSM mobile services in eight circles. RCOM has a
subscriber market share of 17%. The global business group provides national
and international long-distance calling services. The broadband group has a
portfolio of enterprise voice, data, video, internet and IT infrastructure services.
􀁑 Statement of Risk
We believe risks for RCOM include potential inefficiency related to operating
two different networks (GSM and CDMA), the challenge of scaling up and
executing well in light of the rapid growth in India's mobile penetration, and the
risk that the company might not be allocated additional 2G and 3G spectrum.
There is low visibility for capex associated with the GSM strategy, as it will
depend on the amount of spectrum allocated as well as which circles can be
allocated additional spectrum. Intense competitive environment prevailing in
India is also a risk.


Coal India Limited — Results ahead on higher other income :: BofA Merrill Lynch,

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Coal India Limited — Results ahead on higher
other income
Estimate Change
PAT ahead led by higher other income; Maintain Neutral
PAT grew 65%YoY (-2%QoQ) to Rs41.4bn vs. our Rs38bn est. EBITDA was
Rs48.2bn (+55%YoY) vs. our Rs51.4bn est. due to higher provision & OBR
charges. However, higher financial income due to higher interest rates (up 300bp)
lead to the results beat. We have cut our FY12-14E EPS by 12-14% as we
include non cash overburden charges (OBR), as OBR accounting policy change
is delayed. PO is unchanged as it is cash flow/ NPV neutral. While fundamentals
are strong, our NPV (Rs400) leaves limited upside potential. Hence Neutral
1Q: Off take & ASP in line; provision higher than expected
1Q coal off take was 106.3mt (+5%YoY) vs. output of 96.3mt (+0%QoQ). Washed
coal vols. grew 9.6%YoY to 3.54mt (3.7% of output). ASP was up 12%QoQ
(Rs1365/t) due to full impact of coal price hikes in Mar 11. E-auction ASP was
Rs2270/t (66% premium to avg. realization). Provisions jumped to Rs2.9bn (51%
of FY11 provisions). Avg. rake availability was 165rakes/day, 7%YoY.
Dispatches better in July; Maintains FY12 off take target
1Q vol. growth was below FY12 guidance led by heavy rains & logistic issues, but
July off take has improved 7%YoY to 35.8mt. CIL is implementing initiatives to
resolve coal crushing bottleneck to reduce coal stocks. Rake availability remains
a key issue. If July off take rate sustain thru Sept Q, we est. ~185 rake/day (165
rakes in 1Q) will be required in 2H to meet FY12 off take guidance of 7%YoY.
Wage negotiations to start in Aug
Joint Bipartite Committee for Coal Industry has been formed. Discussions will
start after it gets the charter demands on Aug 20-21st. CIL said it will start making
provisions Sept Q onwards. The provision amount will be decided after initial
discussions. We expect 30% wage hike in FY12e but provision could be lower
initially. CIL plans to retain pricing and expects to review pricing at the end of
FY12.

TD Power Systems - IPO to open on Aug 24; All the details

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Issue Terms
 
Issue price / Floor Price (Rs)
256-261
Application per share (Rs)
256.00
Minimum investment amount (Rs)
6,400.00
Minimum bid (no of shares)
25 shares and in multiples of 25 thereafter
Maximum Shares for Retail
775-750



Issue Date and Size
 
Issue opens
24-Aug-11
Issue closes
26-Aug-11
Listing on
BSE, NSE
Issue size (Rs cr)
227



Lead Managers & Registrar
Lead Manager(1)
Enam Securities Private Limited
E-mail
tdps.ipo@enam.com
Lead Manager(2)
Antique Capital Markets Pvt Ltd
E-mail
tdps.ipo@antiquelimited.com
Registrar
Link Intime India Private Limited
E-mail
tdpsl.ipo@linkintime.co.in



Company Contact Details
Company's address
27, 28, 29 KIADB Industrial Area Dabaspet, Nelamangala Taluk, Bangalore, Karnataka
Pincode
562 111
Tel No.
91 80 22017800
Fax No.
91 80 22017850
Website
www.tdps.co.in



Description
Company manufactures AC Generators with output capacity in the range of 1 MW to 52 MW for prime movers such as steam turbines, gas turbines, hydro turbines, wind turbines, diesel and gas engines.
Objects of Issue
  • >Finance the expansion of manufacturing plant in Dabaspet;
  • >Construct a project office in Bangalore city;
  • >Repay debt;
  • >Fund working capital requirements of company

India Infoline NCD to list on Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

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India Infoline Investment Services Limited-

Secured Redeemable Non-Convertible Debenture

will be listing on NSE & BSE from

Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

IPO allotment alert:: Tree House 572 shares are alloted on FULL application

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IPO allotment alert::

Tree House 572 shares are alloted on FULL application

Tata Motors – JLR July sales volume disappointed:: RBS

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JLR sales volume declined 1% yoy and 6% mom as 23% yoy declined in Jaguar sales volume
flattened the 8% yoy growth in LR volumes. Surprisingly, LR monthly sales volume registered a
mom dip. With Evoque and new XF launches ahead, we believe growth to come back on the
track in coming months.


􀀟 The JLR sales volume for July came in at 19,119 units, down 1% yoy and 6% mom (11%
below our forecasts), primarily due to decline in Jaguar sales volume. On YTD basis, JLR
sales volumes are up 6% yoy to 81,209 units.
􀀟 Jaguar sales volumes for the month were at 4,372 units, down 23% yoy but up 8% mom. On
YTD basis, the volumes were down 26% to 15,715 units.
􀀟 The launch of new XF model in coming months should provide breather to the yoy declining
trend for Jaguar brand.
􀀟 Land Rover sales volumes were at 14,747, up 8% yoy but down 10% mom. The mom decline
was surprising considering the recent strong run in the business. On YTD basis, the Land
Rover sales volumes were up 18% yoy to 65,494 units.
􀀟 Despite an unexpected mom decline in the Land Rover volumes, given the advance order
book position of Evoque (about 18,000 as at June end), the Land Rover should be the one
driving growth for JLR.

NIIT Technologies – Strategic fit:: RBS

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We view acquisition of Proyecta as positive for NIIT Technologies, as the deal will add strategic
new accounts, strengthen presence in Europe and deepen domain expertise in travel and BFSI
verticals. We expect the deal to be marginally EPS accretive.


NIIT Technologies announced the acquisition of Proyecta Sistemas de Informacion S.A.
(Proyecta), a Spain-based software services company.
􀀟 Management said that NIIT Technologies would pay about US$7m for Proyecta, of which
80% would be paid upfront and the rest will be paid as earn-outs over two years. This values
the company at around 0.7x previous year revenues and approximately 6.4x last year
EBITDA.
􀀟 Management noted that Proyecta would be a 100% subsidiary of NIIT Technologies and its
financials would be consolidated from the date of announcement, and expects the deal to be
EPS accretive from first year.
􀀟 Management views Proyecta acquisition as positive for NIIT Technologies as it would help
expand its presence in Europe and also provide a gateway for Latin American markets.
Proyecta focuses on travel and BFSI verticals
􀀟 Proyecta was founded in 2002 and provides specialized services including revenue/yield
management, CRM, Business Intelligence and Web apps/ mobility. The company primarily
focuses on Travel, which accounts for 68% of revenues, followed by Financial Services
segment (23%).
􀀟 Proyecta has more than 100 consultants with strong domain expertise serving about 15
clients including marquee names such as Banco Santander, BBVA and Iberia.
􀀟 For previous year, Proyecta posted revenues of €7.8m (US$10m), down 8% yoy, due to
economic slowdown. Management noted that despite weakness in top line, EBIT margins
improved to 10%.
􀀟 Management expects marginal (1-2%) decline in Proyecta revenues in the current year,
followed by 14-15% growth driven by demand from existing clients and synergies.
􀀟 Management noted that while Proyecta’s revenue mix had largely been dependent on
discretionary spending in the past, there has been a shift towards annuity based businesses.
􀀟 Management does not expect material offshoring potential in the initial year.
Good fit for NIIT Technologies – adds significant new clients
􀀟 We are positive on the acquisition as the acquisition would add new clients to NIIT
Technologies’ client base and provide significant cross-selling opportunities, given that there
is minimal overlap in terms of client base
􀀟 The deal complements NIIT Technologies expertise in Travel and BFSI segments, which
contributed 35% and 41% of 1Q12 revenues respectively
􀀟 The acquisition will strengthen NIIT Technologies’ front-end capabilities which according to us
will help the company in addressing the cultural and language differences and spearheading
its entry into Spanish market. Further, the acquisition also might help in expanding NIIT
Technologies’ presence in Latin American markets


􀀟 In particular, given that Iberia is one of Proyecta’s major clients, we believe the deal would
provide NIIT Technologies with a strong entry into Iberia account. Further, this will help the
company solidify its position and increase its wallet share at International Consolidated
Airlines Group, formed through the merger of Iberia and British Airways (one of NIIT
Technologies’ top accounts).
Valuation
􀀟 Based on our quick estimates, we believe that Proyecta acquisition would be marginally EPS
accretive for NIIT Technologies. We expect EPS accretion to be less than 1%, with lower
accretion in FY11 due to expected revenue decline and fewer months of consolidation,
followed by higher contribution to the bottom line in FY12 due to rebound in revenues and full
year consolidation.


BSE, Bulk deals, 23/8/2011

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Deal DateScrip CodeCompanyClient NameDeal Type *QuantityPrice **
23/8/2011517356ACI InfocomPROG DYE CHEM PRIVATE LIMITEDB77830025.05
23/8/2011517356ACI InfocomDIVYA ALOK GUPTAS77830025.05
23/8/2011590006Amrutanjan Health-$CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDB36103799.05
23/8/2011590006Amrutanjan Health-$A K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTDB40125801.63
23/8/2011590006Amrutanjan Health-$CHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS PRIVATE LIMITEDB25340799.74
23/8/2011590006Amrutanjan Health-$CHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS PRIVATE LIMITEDS25340798.94
23/8/2011590006Amrutanjan Health-$A K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTDS40125801.72
23/8/2011590006Amrutanjan Health-$CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDS36103800.96
23/8/2011512535Asahi InfraINDRAVARUN TRADE IMPEX PVT LTDB3837554.89
23/8/2011512535Asahi InfraINDRAVARUN TRADE IMPEX PVT LTDS2456034.99
23/8/2011532435Asia HR TechSATISH VADIRAJ ACHARYAB1000004.70
23/8/2011532435Asia HR TechKIRAN SHARAD VERNEKARB500004.69
23/8/2011532435Asia HR TechM SARASWATHYS1500004.70
23/8/2011524606Beryl DrugsADDO CONSTRUCTIONS PVT LTDB14000035.35
23/8/2011524606Beryl DrugsAILISH TRADERS PRIVATE LIMITEDB15000036.95
23/8/2011524606Beryl DrugsAILISH TRADERS PRIVATE LIMITEDS14000035.35
23/8/2011533108BHILWRA TECYASHODHAM MERCHANTS PRIVATE LIMITEDB7775005.80
23/8/2011533108BHILWRA TECPANNALAL BHANSALIS8000005.80
23/8/2011533469Birla Pacific MedspaANOOP JAINB100000020.10
23/8/2011533469Birla Pacific MedspaPRANIDHI HOLDINGS PRIVATE LIMITEDB100000020.10
23/8/2011530337Exelon InfraSHARADBHAI RAMANBHAI JHAVERIB8200059.10
23/8/2011531419Goplee InfoBP WEALTH MANAGEMENT PVT LTDB10000019.56
23/8/2011531419Goplee InfoNARESH BHOJWANIS9015119.63
23/8/2011533506INVENTUREMARWADI SHARES AND FINANCE LIMITEDB183497154.15
23/8/2011533506INVENTURESPS SHARE BROKERS PRIVATE LIMITEDB161961171.99
23/8/2011533506INVENTUREGKN SECURITIESB181007155.88
23/8/2011533506INVENTURER M SHARES TRADING PRIVATE LIMITEDB228871155.00
23/8/2011533506INVENTURESHARDA CHAMPAKLAL PUJARAB110000143.55
23/8/2011533506INVENTUREARUN KUMAR GUPTA (HUF)B124085155.25
23/8/2011533506INVENTURECROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDB467378156.25
23/8/2011533506INVENTURENITIN BABAJI PALANDEB272640151.42
23/8/2011533506INVENTUREA K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTDB148043158.43
23/8/2011533506INVENTURECHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS PRIVATE LIMITEDB453696156.72
23/8/2011533506INVENTUREMARWADI SHARES AND FINANCE LIMITEDS183497154.26
23/8/2011533506INVENTURECHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS PRIVATE LIMITEDS453696159.52
23/8/2011533506INVENTURENITIN BABAJI PALANDES272640154.23
23/8/2011533506INVENTURECROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDS467378156.47
23/8/2011533506INVENTUREA K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTDS148043158.69
23/8/2011533506INVENTUREARUN KUMAR GUPTA (HUF)S124085157.59
23/8/2011533506INVENTURESPS SHARE BROKERS PRIVATE LIMITEDS160381160.87
23/8/2011533506INVENTURER M SHARES TRADING PRIVATE LIMITEDS228871155.39
23/8/2011533506INVENTUREGKN SECURITIESS181007157.36
23/8/2011530955Kailash FicomPARMATMA DEVI LATHB7000036.70
23/8/2011530165Kanchan IntlDHARMENDRA HARILAL BHOJAKB5878935.74
23/8/2011530165Kanchan IntlPANKAJ J DAVEB3466837.54
23/8/2011530165Kanchan IntlMILKWAY MERCANTILES PRIVATE LIMITEDB1668737.82
23/8/2011530165Kanchan IntlMILKWAY MERCANTILES PRIVATE LIMITEDS1747238.09
23/8/2011533343LOVABLECROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDB123269524.77
23/8/2011533343LOVABLEA K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTDB255383529.86
23/8/2011533343LOVABLECHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS PRIVATE LIMITEDB118797527.30
23/8/2011533343LOVABLECHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS PRIVATE LIMITEDS118797528.36
23/8/2011533343LOVABLEA K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTDS255383530.12
23/8/2011533343LOVABLECROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDS123269525.94
23/8/2011519279Madhur IndsURVI JIMESH SHAHS2060062.00
23/8/2011523160Morganite CrucSHARAD SHAHB14731371.13
23/8/2011523820Neo CorpALFA FISCAL SERVICES PVT LTDB9732952.15
23/8/2011531769PFL InfotechKANCHERLA SRIHARI BABUB60500410.00
23/8/2011532316S KumarsComMANDAKINI HOSPITALITY PRIVATE LIMITEDB7765983.31
23/8/2011532316S KumarsComANJANI FINVEST PRIVATE LIMITEDS7765983.31
23/8/2011531668Vision CorpANUPAM GUPTAB1488341.34
23/8/2011532794Zee NewsPRAJATMA TRADING COMPANY PRIVATE LIMITEDB195171512.70
* B - Buy, S - Sell
** = Weighted Average Trade Price / Trade Price

NSE, Bulk deals, 23-Aug-2011

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DateSymbolSecurity NameClient NameBuy / SellQuantity TradedTrade Price /
Wght. Avg.
Price
Remarks
23-Aug-2011AGCNETAGC Networks LimitedAEGIS LIMITEDSELL5,87,711130.25-
23-Aug-2011AGCNETAGC Networks LimitedINDIA OPPORTUNITIES GROWTH FUND LTD-PINEWOOD STRATEGYBUY5,87,711130.25-
23-Aug-2011AMRUTANJANAmrutajan Health LtdCHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS P. LTDBUY25,349799.30-
23-Aug-2011AMRUTANJANAmrutajan Health LtdCHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS P. LTDSELL25,349800.34-
23-Aug-2011AMRUTANJANAmrutajan Health LtdCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.BUY36,143801.09-
23-Aug-2011AMRUTANJANAmrutajan Health LtdCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.SELL36,143799.43-
23-Aug-2011ARSSINFRAARSS Infra Proj. LtdABHISHEK AGARWALBUY89,384289.35-
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23-Aug-2011ASTECAstec LifeSciences LtdHRIDAYNATH CONSULTANCY PRIVATE LIMITEDBUY1,04,27632.62-
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23-Aug-2011INVENTUREInventure Gro & Sec LtdALFA FISCAL SERVICES PVT LTDBUY1,51,965160.22-
23-Aug-2011INVENTUREInventure Gro & Sec LtdALFA FISCAL SERVICES PVT LTDSELL1,44,399159.78-
23-Aug-2011INVENTUREInventure Gro & Sec LtdANIL FINATURE PVT LTDBUY1,15,175151.58-
23-Aug-2011INVENTUREInventure Gro & Sec LtdANIL FINATURE PVT LTDSELL1,15,175162.01-
23-Aug-2011INVENTUREInventure Gro & Sec LtdCHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS P. LTDBUY4,52,206158.80-
23-Aug-2011INVENTUREInventure Gro & Sec LtdCHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS P. LTDSELL4,52,206156.62-
23-Aug-2011INVENTUREInventure Gro & Sec LtdCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.BUY4,67,392156.25-
23-Aug-2011INVENTUREInventure Gro & Sec LtdCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.SELL4,67,392156.17-
23-Aug-2011INVENTUREInventure Gro & Sec LtdGKN SECURITIESBUY1,80,309156.69-
23-Aug-2011INVENTUREInventure Gro & Sec LtdGKN SECURITIESSELL1,80,309155.76-
23-Aug-2011INVENTUREInventure Gro & Sec LtdMARWADI SHARES AND FINANCE LIMITEDBUY2,12,594154.14-
23-Aug-2011INVENTUREInventure Gro & Sec LtdMARWADI SHARES AND FINANCE LIMITEDSELL2,12,594154.01-
23-Aug-2011INVENTUREInventure Gro & Sec LtdMEENA AGARWALBUY1,92,114164.06-
23-Aug-2011INVENTUREInventure Gro & Sec LtdMEENA AGARWALSELL1,92,114165.76-
23-Aug-2011INVENTUREInventure Gro & Sec LtdNITIN BABAJI PALANDEBUY3,03,064146.49-
23-Aug-2011INVENTUREInventure Gro & Sec LtdNITIN BABAJI PALANDESELL3,03,064149.20-
23-Aug-2011INVENTUREInventure Gro & Sec LtdR.M. SHARE TRADING PVT LTDBUY2,28,414155.04-
23-Aug-2011INVENTUREInventure Gro & Sec LtdR.M. SHARE TRADING PVT LTDSELL2,28,158154.79-
23-Aug-2011INVENTUREInventure Gro & Sec LtdRUPALI MEETALBUY3,92,822160.33-
23-Aug-2011INVENTUREInventure Gro & Sec LtdRUPALI MEETALSELL3,92,822160.21-
23-Aug-2011KSOILSK S Oils LimitedTRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.BUY42,08,98410.11-
23-Aug-2011KSOILSK S Oils LimitedTRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.SELL43,87,99410.16-
23-Aug-2011KSOILSK S Oils LimitedVASANTI SHARE BROKERS LIMITEDBUY35,20,60410.08-
23-Aug-2011KSOILSK S Oils LimitedVASANTI SHARE BROKERS LIMITEDSELL35,20,60410.10-
23-Aug-2011LOVABLELovable Lingerie LtdCHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS P. LTDBUY1,18,997528.65-
23-Aug-2011LOVABLELovable Lingerie LtdCHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS P. LTDSELL1,18,997528.01-
23-Aug-2011LOVABLELovable Lingerie LtdCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.BUY1,23,269526.14-
23-Aug-2011LOVABLELovable Lingerie LtdCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.SELL1,23,269525.33-
23-Aug-2011ZYLOGZylog Systems LimitedSTHIDHI INSURANCES SER PVT LTDBUY85,403403.43-