BUY Tata Motors – Annual report highlights ::RBS

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India remains largest revenue contributor for the consolidated entity (37%), while JLR provides
global revenue spread. JLR with new product and joint engine development plan, prepares for
high growth. But creation of large JLR pension reserve, loss at Fiat and Hispano ventures
concern us.


Management expects
�� Rural market focus : Management highlights that for the industry as a whole, only 11% of cars
/UVs sales are contributed by rural market as compared to 48% for motorcycles. Hence with
affordable transport solutions and distribution channels, it plans to target rural markets for
growth.
JLR focuses on
�� India plans : with the start of Freelander assembly operations in May 2011, management
highlights that it is considering assembly of other LR products. It also discloses that, it is
examining joint engine development program, so that it can be manufactured both in India
and UK.
�� Managmenet indicates that in FY11, it was able to maintain or marginally improve JLR market
share in UK, US, Europe, Russia and China markets.
�� New products : Freelander 2 eD4 launched in FY11 is LR's first 2-wheel drive and most fuel
efficient vehicle to date. It plans to launch light weight Range Rover in 2012 and dieselelectric
hybrid in year 2013.
�� Pension liabilities increase reflected in the reserves: The JLR pension reserve increased by
Rs.20.2bn which were impacted due to change in actuarial assumptions. This led to a 112%
increase in consolidated pension liabilities to Rs.27.5bn in FY11.


Parent financials show sharp dip in creditor acceptance boosting working capital
�� Cash flow from operating activities declined by about 75% yoy to Rs.15.1bn due to a sharp
increase in working capital. The net core working capital (inventory + debtors- creditors) days
declined to (29) days from (67) days due to a sharp decrease in payables days.
�� FY11 saw the payables days declining to a record low of 79 days (121 days in FY10). The
decline in payables was mainly due to significant reduction in acceptances (i.e. bill
discounting activites). The management clarified that the company has cautiously decided to
maintain low level of acceptances since it was able to bridge the shortfall in cash through
cheaper fianancing. The company was able to reduce the debtor days while maintaining the
inventory days and hence, overall impact on company's liquidity looks positive.
�� The casting and forging sales for FY11 recorded sharp 51% growth to Rs.10.5bn as
compared to an overall 37% growth.
�� R&D expenditure declined to 2.5% of net sales, lowest in last five years. The yoy increase
was just 2% and the company may need to increase the expenses going forward (traditionally
3-5% of sales).
�� Publicity expenses rose to 1.5% of net sales, the highest ever as against a long term average
range of 1%. The higher expenses on Nano and Aria promotion could be the possible
reasons. We expect the expenses to normalise in coming years.
�� The company infused a further Rs.4.0bn by way of equity investments in its wholly owned
subsidiary Tata Motors Finance Limited.
�� The company also invested Rs.2bn in its 50:50 JV with Fiat. The JV made a net loss of
Rs.1.23bn vs a net loss of Rs.1.35bn in FY10.
Cash conversion of consolidated EBITDA increased to 93%
�� Geographical revenue mix : India-37%; US-12%; UK-11%; Rest of Europe- 12%; Rest of
world-27% with all the markets registering double digit yoy growth. The high growth markets
in FY11 were Rest of world (+68%) and US (+46%) while Rest of Europe (+15%) grew the
least.
�� Total capex declined to 7.3% of net sales in FY11 to Rs. 90.2bn as against 9.6% in FY10;
JLR accounted for 70% of total capex (vs 61% in FY10). The total yoy growth was just 2% but
we expect the growth to be 20% yoy in FY12.
�� The company was able to convert its 93% of EBITDA into the cash profit (before working
capital change and tax payment) as against 89% last year.
�� Working capital at consolidated level rose mainly due to decrease in payables as a % of
sales. Again, as explained above the decrease was due to low level of acceptance in line with
the new strategy of the company. Ignoring that, the working capital days at consolidated level
declined by 11 days thanks mainly to reduction in debtor days.
�� Out of the total capital work in progress of Rs.117.3bn at the end of FY11, Rs.92.1bn was
towards product development costs which will be capitalised gradually as the new products
are launched.
�� Tata Daewoo in FY11 was impacted by financial instability of its sole distributor in its domestic
market South Korea. This forced Tata Motors to start its own sales company and launch Euro
V trucks.
�� Tata Hispano : doubled its sales volume and increased its market share from 8% to 13% in
FY11. But financial performance remains poor as it reports Euro 60m net loss and carries
accumulated losses of Euro 260m.

KIFS Result update of Sesa Goa-3IINFO-KPIT-Rallis-CCI

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KIFS Result update of:

SESA GOA

OVERVIEW

Sesa Goa is engaged in iron ore mining and has diversified into manufacture of pig iron and metallurgical coke. The company exported 89% of its production in FY11; of this, exports to China were 77%. In 2010, iron ore imports by China declined by 1.5% y‐o‐y due to a 21.7% y‐o‐y increase in Chinese iron ore production. Any decline in iron ore imports or steel production in China could adversely impact SESA’s exports. The company has initiated work for widening the mine to jetty routes in Goa, railway siding in Karnataka and setting up of dedicated road corridors for movement of iron ore traffic. This is likely to support the expanded mining capacity.

Key highlights:

· Total income fell by 11% Y-o-Y to Rs. 1698 cr. v/s Rs. 1917 cr in June-10

· Operating Profit fell by 13% Y-o-Y to Rs. 1047 cr.  v/s Rs. 1204 cr in June-10

· OPM fell by 173 bps Y-o-Y to 61.08%  v/s 62.8% in June-10

· Net profit fell by 34% Y-o-Y to Rs. 673 cr.  v/s Rs. 1026 cr in June-10

· NPM fell by 1424 bps Y-o-Y to 39.25%  v/s 53.49% in June-10

· Interest cost grew by 263% to Rs 49 cr. v/s Rs 14 cr. In June-10.

 3I INFOTECH

OVERVIEW

3i Infotech provides IT solutions  to various market segments such as banking, insurance, manufacturing, contracting, retail and distribution and government. The company is promoted by ICICI Bank, which is India’s largest private sector bank. The company is hoping that the Government, along with its main stay BFSI sector, will pull it out of its difficult times and reduce the debt-to-equity ratio to 1.1 by March 31, 2012. The company is also hoping 40-50% of its revenue will come from Government spending in FY12.

Key highlights:

· Total income grew by 32% Y-o-Y to Rs. 170 cr. v/s Rs. 128 cr in June-10

· Operating Profit grew by 3% Y-o-Y to Rs. 68 cr.  v/s Rs. 66 cr in June-10

· OPM fell by 1137 bps Y-o-Y to 39.7% v/s 51.1% in June-10

· Net profit grew by 20% Y-o-Y to Rs. 25 cr.  v/s Rs. 21 cr in June-10

· NPM fell by 153 bps Y-o-Y to 14.7%  v/s 16.3% in June-10

· Interest grew 47% Y-o-Y to Rs. 39 cr.  v/s Rs. 27 cr in June-10

KPIT CUMMINS

OVERVIEW

KPIT Cummins is focused on co-innovating domain intensive technology solutions for manufacturing corporations and Diversified Financial Services to help its customers become more efficient, integrated and innovative enterprises. KPIT Cummins Infosystems (KPIT) has acquired 50% stake in Systime Global Solutions (Systime), the world’s largest JD Edwards (JDE) solution provider, for a consideration of Rs 103cr (all cash deal). The company has vertical mix in which revenue come from manufacturing and BFSI industry constitute almost 92% but with the help of this deal the company will expand its vertical mix to health care, energy and CPG.

Key highlights:

· Total income  grew by 42% Y-o-Y to Rs. 150 cr. v/s Rs. 106 cr in June-10

· Operating Profit grew by 99% Y-o-Y to Rs. 33 cr.  v/s Rs. 17 cr in June-10

· OPM grew by 635 bps Y-o-Y to 22.06%  v/s 15.71% in June-10

· Net profit grew by 198% Y-o-Y to Rs. 19 cr.  v/s Rs. 6 cr in June-10

· NPM grew by 669 bps Y-o-Y to 12.78%  v/s 6.09% in June-10

RALLIS INDIA

OVERVIEW

Rallis India mainly deals in Agri Business and has emerged as one of the leaders in the Indian Agrochemical Industry. The company is also in the Institutional business providing technical and bulk of various molecules to leading companies like Bayer, Syngenta etc. Apart from this the company is having significant presence in International Business and Contract Manufacturing. Rallis had acquired Metahelix, an agro-biotech company focusing on developing technologies for crop improvement, in December last year.

Key highlights:

· Total income  grew by 16% Y-o-Y to Rs. 1796 cr. v/s Rs. 1553 cr in June-10

· Operating Profit grew by 28% Y-o-Y to Rs. 269 cr.  v/s Rs. 210 cr in June-10

· OPM grew by 144 bps Y-o-Y to 14.9 %  v/s 13.5% in June-10

· Net profit grew by 31% Y-o-Y to Rs. 159 cr.  v/s Rs. 121 cr in June-10

· NPM grew by 105 bps Y-o-Y to 8.87%  v/s 7.82 % in June-10

CONTAINER CORPORATION OF INDIA

OVERVIEW

Container Corporation of India popularly known as CONCOR, is engaged in the business of transportation through containerization. The company is the market leader that has the largest network of 58 ICDs/CFSs in India. CONCOR also provides services such as cover management of Ports, air cargo complexes and establishing cold-chain and for International & Domestic containerization and trade in India the company has built-up multimodal logistics support.

Key highlights:

· Total income grew by 4% Y-o-Y to Rs. 949 cr  v/s Rs. 916 cr in June-10

· Operating Profit grew by 13% Y-o-Y to Rs. 319 cr. v/s Rs. 283 cr. in    Jun-10

· OPM grew by 268 bps   Y-o-Y to 35.56 % v/s 30.88 % in June-10

· Net profit grew by 21% Y-o-Y to Rs. 234 cr.  v/s Rs. 194 cr. in June-10

· NPM grew by 354 bps   Y-o-Y to 24.67 %  v/s 21.13 % in June-10

Ashok Leyland - "Not yet out of the woods":: LKP

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Q1 disappoints on the bottom-line

Ashok Leyland (AL)'s Q1 FY12 performance was below our expectations at the bottomline as depreciation (up 38% yoy) and interest costs (up 69% yoy) hampered the performance of the company. Depreciation costs jumped on higher capex incurred in the previous year for Pantnagar expansion, while interest costs went up due to higher inventory bearing costs and working capital expenses. Volumes declined by a significant 35% qoq and 10% yoy in this quarter, while realization growth was flattish. Despite an adverse swing in product mix towards bus segment, the price hike of 2% taken in April supported net realizations. EBITDA margins for the quarter came in at 9.8%, while net profits declined by 80% yoy to Rs.862mn.

Management guidance of 1, 08,000 units in FY 12 seems optimistic

Despite selling only 19,277 units in Q1 FY12, a decline of 10% yoy and 35% qoq, management expects to clock ~90,000 units in the rest of the nine months. They have still maintained their previous guidance of 1,08,000 units, a growth of 14% yoy. Management believes that they can achieve this through expected fall In interest rates. However, we believe that with macro headwinds such as inflation ceasing to ease down, it will be difficult for interest rates to see a significant decline in the coming quarters. Also, fuel price hikes, no significant growth in freight rates, shortage of truck drivers and rising competition will make it extremely difficult for AL to meet its guidance and increase its market share to a targeted 27% from current 22%(AL reported MS loss in Q1 on weak Southern demand).

Bottom-line to be impacted by continued pressure due to depreciation and interest costs

Though the EBITDA margins for this quarter came in at 9.8%, it was supported by price hikes taken in April and higher spare part and genset sales. The company has taken another price hike of 1.5-2% in July which will impact Q2 margins positively. But the slowdown prevailing on the high margin truck business will adversely impact profitability. With no plans of further significant price hikes, we believe it will be difficult for the company to maintain its margin guidance of 10.5% for FY12. Also production from the tax haven plant of Pantnagar has been at just 5,900 units in Q1, v/s expected 7,500 units. Management expects to produce 9,000 units in Q2 and Q3 each and 12,000 in Q4 from this plant and increase the cost savings upto Rs.47, 000 per unit. With inventory soaring to 10,100 units at the end of June up from 7,500 in April, we see the Pantnagar ramp up to be difficult as the existing inventory pile up and slowing demand will provide little room for the company to expand production. This will impact depreciation and interest costs, coupled with higher debt increasing interest burden.

Outlook and valuation

In view of slowdown in the CV industry impacting ALL the most, it being a pure play CV player, we continue to estimate a meager 4% CAGR at the bottom-line during FY 11-13E. We thus, maintain our estimates and Underperformer rating on the stock with a target price of Rs.43 (8.5x times FY 13E EPS of Rs. 5.1).

Sterlite Industries – The time has come::RBS

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Sterlite's core zinc business looks set for strong earnings growth, which should re-rate the
share. In our SOTP, the worrisome aluminium and power businesses are available for free.
The risk-reward trade-off now looks very favourable. We roll-over our target to FY13 and
raise our TP to Rs225. Buy maintained.


EBITDA to grow at a 30% CAGR to FY14
We forecast strong earnings growth for all business segments, ie, zinc, lead, silver,
aluminium and power, over the next two years. We expect growth in its core zinc, lead and
silver businesses to be visible from 1QFY12, and for aluminium and power from end-FY12
and in FY13. We expect earnings to be driven by the successful ramp up of: 1) silver output
from 150t to 500t by FY13, 2) the full commissioning of 2400MW of power in Sterlite Energy
by FY13, 3) 0.3mt aluminium capacity expansion and 1200MW power expansion at BALCO
by FY13/14, and 4) the 1.25mt aluminium expansion at Vedanta Aluminium (VAL).
At CMP, the aluminium and power businesses come free!
Based on our SOTP valuation, the core zinc and copper businesses are valued at
Rs165/share, implying that the high growth (and uncertain) aluminium business which
comprises of BALCO and VAL and the power business through Sterlite Energy (SEL) are
available for free. We note that Sterlite has invested US$1.91bn in VAL and will have spent
US$1.9bn in SEL by end-FY12. Assuming all planned projects (ex- zinc) come on-stream as
planned by FY14, implies additional EBITDA of Rs70.7bn in FY14 (based on what we feel are
conservative estimates). However, lack of visibility on approvals means we model just earnings
growth of Rs37.7bn from the projects in BALCO, VAL and SEL.


Rolling-forward to FY13 and raising TP to Rs225: Sterlite now our top pick
We largely retain our forecasts and roll-forward our earnings to FY13, raising our target price to
Rs225 from Rs210. We value Sterlite’s core zinc and copper businesses at Rs165/share making
the risk/reward extremely favourable over the next two to three years when earnings should start
to kick in from the massive investments in aluminium and power businesses. We have a blue sky
fair value to FY14 of Rs291, which assumes all projects are up and running and fully backward
integrated. We announce Sterlite as our top pick ahead of Hindalco given our expectations of
superior earnings growth. Buy.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 22-Jul-2011

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 22-Jul-2011
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	106572	2939.69	81768	2298.28	425410	11958.12	641.41
INDEX OPTIONS	382679	10766.66	321982	9004.13	1552456	43732.86	1762.53
STOCK FUTURES	128012	3726.66	124885	3629.68	1203514	34012.78	96.98
STOCK OPTIONS	12065	350.15	12034	354.54	42293	1213.99	-4.39
						Total	2496.54

-- 

Hero Honda - "Nothing to cheer about" ::LKP

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Margins disappoint, lower tax rate and higher other income support earnings

Despite reporting 15.3 mn volumes in Q1, (up 24% yoy) and robust net sales (32% yoy), Hero Honda (HH) reported a disappointing margin performance, wherein EBITDA margins came in at 11.2% after adjusting for the Rs.1,785 mn royalty expenses. RM to sales percentage was the highest ever since last 11 years for HH at 74.7%, due to stiffened commodity costs. However, this was nullified by the higher other income at Rs.880mn and lower tax rate at 16.7%.

No significant improvement in profitability expected

HH has guided us for no significant product launches going forward, which weakens its product portfolio vis-à-vis competition. The company has taken a price hike of just Rs.500-750 in June which will slightly impact Q2 positively. However, rebranding expenses, Rs.1,785 mn royalty outgo for next 12 quarters, competition from Honda going solo, significant expenses in distribution set up and re building of image post Honda split will hurt margins. Management expects slight commodity softening to support margins to some extent. We have factored in 11.9%, which is flattish margin performance in FY 12E and a slight growth of 50 bps in FY 13E on RM cost softening. Management plans to increase its total capacity to 6.4-6.5mn from current 6.15mn through debottlenecking.

Tax rate at 16.7%, to remain stable at 17%

The company produced approximately 1.5mn units from its Haridwar plant in Q1, which has a capacity of 2.25mn thus taking the tax rate at 16.7%. With future ramp up happening at Haridwar, the tax rate for the full year is expected to be close to 17%, lower than 19.2% in FY11. This is expected to support the bottom-line performance of the company, however underperformance at the operating level will negate the tax benefit.

Concall highlights –

Ä     Volumes of 6mn expected in FY12, with July-August remaining seasonally weak, festive season is expected to provide a fillip

Ä     Inventories of 2,50-3,50,000 units at dealers’ end (2-3 weeks)

Ä     New plant with a capacity of 7, 50,000 units p.a. will be likely set up in FY13.

Ä     Urban to rural sales mix in the quarter was at 55%-45%

Ä     Cash balance of Rs.40 bn at the end of Q1 FY12.

Ä     Capex of Rs.8-9 bn planned, which will include the new plant

Ä     Recent new launches included remodeling of Glamour and refreshes of Karizma and ZMR

Outlook and valuation

Though we have factored in lower tax rate and slightly lower RM costs, the bottom-line is negated by higher other expenses which include higher marketing and R&D expenses for brand building and to tackle competition. We are maintaining our FY12 and FY 13 estimates and our Underperformer rating on the stock with target price of Rs.1,560.

KIFS Result update of KOTAK Bank Q1 FY12

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KIFS Result update of KOTAK Bank Q1 FY12.

OVERVIEW

Kotak Mahindra Bank is a one stop shop for all banking needs. The bank offers personal finance solutions of every kind from savings accounts to credit cards, distribution of mutual funds to life insurance products. Kotak Bank offers transaction banking, operates lending verticals, manages IPOs and provides working capital loans.  The bank has 323 branches across 184 locations and 725 ATM’s as on Q1FY12. The bank derives almost 50% revenues from Corporate/Wholesale banking and 25% revenues from Retail banking operations. Treasury operations form a big part towards contributing to revenues at 25%.

Key highlights:

· Total income grew by 44% Y-o-Y to Rs. 1330 cr. v/s Rs. 921 cr in June-10

· Operating Profit grew by 22% Y-o-Y to Rs. 386 cr.  v/s Rs. 315 cr in June-10

· Net profit grew by 35% Y-o-Y to Rs. 252 cr.  v/s  Rs. 187 cr in June-10

· Gross NPA’s fell by 141 bps Y-o-Y to 1.88%  v/s 3.29% in June-10

· Net NPA’s fell by 67 bps Y-o-Y to 0.66% v/s 1.33% in June-10

Thanks and Regards,

KIFS Research

Yes Bank - "Strong growth in line with expectations" ::LKP

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Key Highlights

Ø  Yes Bank reported a PAT growth of 38% yoy and an operating profit growth of 31% yoy on the back of growth NII and lower provisioning numbers. The results were inline with our FY12 full year estimates.

Ø  Net interest income (NII) grew 35%/2% yoy/qoq. The bank has done well to maintain qoq NIMs at 2.8% inline with our estimates. On a yoy basis NIMs were lower by 30 bps due to higher cost of funds.

Ø  Loan book grew by 26%/(4%) yoy/qoq. The growth across business segments (commercial banking 11%/7%, BB 176%/3%, CNIB (14%)/(3%) yoy/qoq) represented the intention of the bank build in granularity through mid banking & SME banking.

Ø  Deposit growth (44%/(5%) yoy/qoq) slowed down qoq, on account of a lower term deposit growth. CASA grew 50%/flat yoy/qoq with the share of 10.9% marginally higher yoy and qoq.

Ø  The bank has met its version 2 target and has a network of 255 branches at June 2011. Operating expenses have increased by 24%/4% yoy/qoq, led by higher employee expenses of 35%/7% yoy/qoq. The bank is in the growth phase and we expect this to be reflected in the C/I ratios of the bank. C/I ratio during the quarter was 37.4% v/s 38.7%/34.8% yoy/qoq.

Ø  Non-interest income grew by 15%/(11%) yoy/qoq. The yoy growth was driven by trade transactional at 22%, and branch banking (incl. third party) at 45%.

Ø  Asset quality of the bank has improved which is resulted in lower provisioning by (88%)/ (97%) yoy/qoq while specific provisioning was 404% and general at 95% in Q1FY12. Gross npas on an absolute level decreased by 6%/30% yoy/qoq and net npas decreased by 76%/71% yoy/qoq. As a percent gross and net npas were 0.17% and 0.01% the lowest in past 12 quarters.

Ø  Yes Bank has grown its balance sheet by 39% yoy. The bank's CAR as at June 2011 was 16.2%. The Bank reported a RoE of 22%  marginally higher v/s previous quarters and has maintained its RoA of 1.5%.

Ø  We maintain our FY12E and FY13E ABV and EPS estimates. The stock is trading at a P/ABV of 2.4x FY12E ABV and 1.7x FY13E ABV. The 5 year average rolling 12 forward P/ABV is 2.6x and the 1 year average rolling P/ ABV is 2.2x.We continue to value the stock at a 2.0x P/ABV and maintain a BUY with a  target price of Rs.368 per share (FY13).

Inventure Growth and Securities IPO: 4.58x subscribed! retail 8.66x; HNI 9.49x; QIB 0.25x

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Initial Public Offerings (IPO) at NSE Total Issue Size 7000000 Total Bids Received 32055500 Total Bids Received at Cut-off Price 19324400 No. of times issue is subscribed 4.58 Inventure Growth and Securities Ltd *Non-Retail investors i.e. QIB and Non-Institutional Investors shall mandatorily use ASBA facility Symbol - Series IGSL EQ Issue Period July 20, 2011 to July 22, 2011 Post issue Modification Period Jul 23,2011 Issue Size Public issue of 70,00,000 Equity Shares of Rs. 10/- each Issue Type 100% Book Building Price Range Rs.100 to Rs.117 Face Value Rs.10/- Tick Size Re. 1/- Market Lot 50 Equity Shares Minimum Order Quantity 50 Equity Shares IPO Grading IPO GRADE 2 Rating Agency Fitch Ratings India Private Limited & ICRA Maximum Subscription Amount for Retail Investor Rs.200000 IPO Market Timings 10.00 a.m. to 5.00 p.m. Book Running Lead Manager Intensive Fiscal Services Private Limited Syndicate Member Intensive Fiscal Services Private Limited Categories* FI,IC,MF,FII,OTH,CO,IND,and NOH No. of Cities with Bidding Centers 48 Name of the registrar LINK INTIME INDIA PRIVATE LIMITED Address of the registrar C -13, Pannalal Silk Mills Compound,L.B.S Marg, Bhandup (West),Mumbai ? 400 078 Contact person name number and Email id Mr. Chetan Shinde,Tel. No.: +91 22 2596 0320 Fax No.: +91 22 2596 0329,igsl.ipo@linkintime.co.in Prospectus Click Here Trading Member List Click Here Application Forms Click Here ASBA e-form link e-Forms Grading Report Click Here Branches of Self Certified Syndicate Banks (SCSBs) where syndicate / sub syndicate member to submit ASBA form Click Here INVENTURE GROWTH AND SECURITIES LTD Sr.No. Category No.of shares offered/reserved No. of shares bid for No. of times of total meant for the category 1 Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) 3500000 870900 0.25 1(a) Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) 700000 1(b) Domestic Financial Institutions(Banks/ Financial Institutions(FIs)/ Insurance Companies) 170900 1(c) Mutual Funds 0 1(d) Others 0 2 Non Institutional Investors 1050000 9964800 9.49 2(a) Corporates 4838750 2(b) Individuals (Other than RIIs) 5097950 2(c) Others 28100 3 Retail Individual Investors (RIIs) 2450000 21219800 8.66 3(a) Cut Off 19324400 3(b) Price Bids 1895400 Updated as on 22 July 2011 at 1830 hrs