21 July 2011

KIFS Result update of HDFC-Cadila-Crompton-NIIT-South Indian-HT Media-Ashok Leyland-Blue Dart

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


HDFC Bank Q1 FY12
OVERVIEW
HDFC Bank is one of India’s premier private sector bank with a customer base of 21.9 million. With 2111 online real time branches and 5998 ATM’s in over 996 cities, HDFC bank derives its major revenues from the customer segment. However the bank is equally positioned to grow in both retail and wholesale segment. HDFC bank has 70% branches located outside the top 9 cities. With core CASA ratio above 50% and Average Saving Balance per account at Rs 50000, HDFC bank believes in quality growth rather than mere numbers. The bank has amongst the lowest Cost of Deposits (4.3% FY11) and highest Net Interest Margins (4.25% FY11). 
Key highlights:
· Total income grew by 32% Y-o-Y to Rs. 7098 cr. v/s Rs. 5360 cr in June-10
· Operating Profit grew by 16% Y-o-Y to Rs. 2033 cr.  v/s Rs. 1749 cr in June-10
· Net profit grew by 34% Y-o-Y to Rs. 1085 cr.  v/s Rs. 812 cr in June-10
· Gross NPA’s fell by 17 bps Y-o-Y to 1.04%  v/s 1.21% in June-10
· Net NPA’s fell by 10 bps Y-o-Y to 0.2%  v/s 0.3% in June-10
Cadila Healthcare
OVERVIEW
Cadila Healthcare (CHL) is a part of the Zydus Cadila Group having business operation in areas of active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) to formulations, and animal health products to cosmeceuticals. The company has total 8 manufacturing facilities across India and operates in four continents spread across USA, Europe, Japan, Brazil, South Africa and 25 other emerging markets. Recently CHL acquired US based Nesher Pharam showing that the company is eyeing to regulated generic market.
Key highlights:
· Total income  grew by 12% Q-o-Q to Rs. 782 cr. v/s Rs. 696 cr in Mar-11
· Operating Profit grew by 81% Q-o-Q to Rs. 199 cr.  v/s Rs. 110 cr in Mar-11
· OPM grew by 959 bps Q-o-Q to 25-15%  v/s 15.56% in Mar-11
· Net profit grew by 70% Q-o-Q to Rs. 153 cr.  v/s Rs. 90 cr in Mar-11
· NPM grew by 659 bps Q-o-Q to 19.32%  v/s 12.73 % in June-10
CROMPTON GREAVES
OVERVIEW
Crompton Greaves Limited is engaged in designing, manufacturing and marketing electrical products and services related to power generation, transmission and distribution. The company has formed a JV with ZIV application, a Spain-based company for the manufacture of substation automation system to become a complete service provider in Automation space. JV is likely to start manufacturing from its Bangalore based plant in DEC 2012. Change in PGCIL qualification norm for Substations is likey to benefit the company in the medium term as it becomes eligible to bid for PGCIL 765KV substation orders.
Key highlights:
· Total income grew by 9% Y-o-Y to Rs. 1469 cr. v/s Rs. 1343 cr in June-10
· Operating Profit fell by 10% Y-o-Y to Rs. 202 cr.  v/s Rs. 224 cr in June-10
· OPM fell by 375 bps Y-o-Y to 12.1%  v/s 15.8% in June-10
· Net profit fell by 9% Y-o-Y to Rs. 129 cr.  v/s Rs. 142 cr in June-10
· NPM fell by 168 bps Y-o-Y to 8.4%  v/s 10% in June-10
· Depreciation grew 66% Y-o-Y to Rs. 29 cr.  v/s Rs. 17 cr in June-10
NIIT TECHNOLOGIES
OVERVIEW
NIIT Technologies provides IT solutions to its customers located at North America, Europe, Japan, Asia and Australia. Incorporated in 1992, the company has presence in areas such as Application Development & Management and Enterprise Solutions including Managed Services and BPO. The Company added 14 new clients and expanded its order intake as well as 12-month order backlog. The total order intake during FY2011 was US$ 266 million, resulting in an order book of US$ 169 million executable over the next 12 months. The company has bagged a five year contract worth $85 million from US-based media firm Morris Communications.
Key highlights:
· Total income fell by 6% Y-o-Y to Rs. 176 cr. v/s Rs. 187 cr in June-10
· Operating Profit fell by 14% Y-o-Y to Rs. 33 cr.  v/s Rs. 38 cr in June-10
· OPM fell by 183 bps Y-o-Y to 18.75%  v/s 20.58% in June-10
· Net profit fell by 40% Y-o-Y to Rs. 17 cr.  v/s Rs. 29 cr in June-10
· NPM fell by 567 bps Y-o-Y to 9.8%  v/s 15.5% in June-10
SOUTH INDIAN BANK
OVERVIEW
Operating since over 82 years, South Indian Bank is one of the oldest and well known banks in India. With over 643 branches and 533 ATM’s the bank has grown at a CAGR of 26% in last 5 years. With its well diversified loan portfolio, the bank enjoys high asset quality. The bank has 9% market share in Kerala’s NRI deposit base and recently there is a strong boost to income from high yielding gold loans which form almost 20% of the loan book. The bank is restructuring operations with a highly skilled workforce. 43% of the employees are under the age of 30.
Key highlights:
· Total income grew by 41% Y-o-Y to Rs.820 cr. v/s Rs. 582 cr in June-10
· Operating Profit grew by 37% Y-o-Y to Rs. 143 cr.  v/s Rs. 104 cr in June-10
· Net profit grew by 41% Y-o-Y to Rs. 82 cr.  v/s Rs. 58 cr in June-10
· Gross NPA’s fell by 26 bps Y-o-Y to 1.07%  v/s 1.33% in June-10
· Net NPA’s fell by 10 bps Y-o-Y to 0.29%  v/s 0.39% in June-10
HT MEDIA
OVERVIEW
HT Media is a unique play on both English and Hindi print media and other emerging businesses like Radio and portals. Revenues are growing on the back of expanding readership base, strong product innovation and visible improvement in the advertising environment. Hindi business though is in a consolidation phase with readership and ad revenues growing at a sluggish pace. Mint is fast gaining traction in India as a leading business daily. Shine.com though lagging market leaders is also contributing to revenues as India Inc. has come back on its feet after the financial crisis. Radio business is now in the black and is becoming bottom line additive. HT Media-Burda JV opens up some interesting possibilities.
Key highlights:
· Total income grew by 19% Y-o-Y to Rs.331 cr. v/s Rs. 277 cr in June-10
· Operating Profit grew by 46% Y-o-Y to Rs. 93 cr.  v/s Rs. 64 cr in June-10
· OPM grew by a whopping 519 bps Y-o-Y to 28.14%  v/s 22.95% in June-10
· Net profit grew by 67% Y-o-Y to Rs. 53 cr.  v/s Rs. 32 cr in June-10
· NPM grew by 453 bps Y-o-Y to 15.97%  v/s 11.44% in June-10
 ASHOK LEYLAND
OVERVIEW
Ashok Leyland is the 2nd largest truck and bus maker in India with a 38% share of the passenger segment market and an 18% share of the goods segment. ALL has five manufacturing plants in India at Chennai, Hosur, Bhandara, Alwar and Pantnagar and one in the Middle East. Ashok Leyland sells about 27% of its volumes in the Passenger side and 73% on the goods side. The company has presence in only Medium Heavy Commercial Vehicle segment and will be entering the Light Commercial Vehicle Segment from H2FY12.
Key highlights:
· Total income grew by 6% Y-o-Y to Rs.2496 cr. v/s Rs. 2348 cr in June-10
· Operating Profit grew by 4% Y-o-Y to Rs. 249 cr.  v/s Rs. 240 cr in June-10
· OPM fell by 26 bps Y-o-Y to 9.97%  v/s 10.23% in June-10
· Net profit fell by 30% Y-o-Y to Rs. 86 cr.  v/s Rs. 123 cr in June-10
· NPM fell by 176 bps Y-o-Y to 3.46%  v/s 5.22% in June-10
· Interest Cost increased sharply by 69% Y-o-Y
HMVL
OVERVIEW
With a rich legacy of 75 years, HMVL’s hindi daily, Hindustan, has informed and empowered millions of Indians. HMVL is expanding its leadership franchise in the Indo Gangetic Belt. The entire portfolio of the Hindustan brand was re launched in April 2011. FICCI-KPMG estimated the total literate population in India at 579 million, with print media’s penetration put at a little over 30%.  In terms of Total Readership, Hindustan raced ahead of the competition to emerge as the second largest read newspaper with TR of 352 lac readers in the latest round of IRS Q4 2010. 
Key highlights:
· Total income  grew by 12% Y-o-Y to Rs. 149 cr. v/s Rs. 133 cr in June-10
· Operating Profit fell by 5% Y-o-Y to Rs. 31 cr.  v/s Rs. 33 cr in June-10
· OPM fell by 104 bps Y-o-Y to 21.09% v/s 25.02% in June-10
· Net profit grew by 2% Y-o-Y to Rs. 19 cr.  v/s Rs. 18 cr in June-10
· NPM fell by 101 bps Y-o-Y to 12.49%  v/s 13.79% in June-10
 BLUE DART EXPRESS
OVERVIEW
Blue Dart Express is one of the leading logistics companies in the world. Blue Dart Express is South Asia's premier courier, and integrated express package distribution company. Blue Dart has warehouses spread across 50 locations in India. It also owns bonded warehouses located at 7 major metros of Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Hyderabad. The company management is now targeting Tier-II and III cities across the nation. At the end of June the company was having total 419 stores across India.
Key highlights:
· Total income  grew by 34% Q-o-Q to Rs. 372 cr. v/s Rs. 277 cr in June-10
· Operating Profit grew by 34% Q-o-Q to Rs. 56 cr.  v/s Rs. 41 cr in June-10
· OPM grew by 2 bps Q-o-Q to 14.98%  v/s 14.96% in June-10
· Net profit grew by 33% Q-o-Q to Rs. 34 cr.  v/s Rs. 26 cr in June-10
· NPM fell by 10 bps Q-o-Q to 9.14%  v/s 9.24% in June-10

PINC Power Picks July 2011

TATA STEEL: BUY, TP-Rs713 (24% upside) (:: PINC Power Picks July 2011

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


What’s the theme?
We expect Tata Steel's EBITDA to grow at 5% CAGR over FY11-13E, driven by: 1) Improving share of
highly profitable integrated Indian operations with completion of 2.9mntpa brownfield expansion at
Jamshedpur in FY12; 2) Transformation steps taken at TSE (reduced headcount, sale of TCP, downsizing
at Scunthorpe) to improve profitability, 3) Improved capital structure (FY11 net D/E of 1.0x - improved
further to 0.9x on sale of stake in Riversdale mining vs. 1.3x in FY10) and 4) Hedging of high RM cost at
TSE on commencement of mining at Riversdale (1HFY12) and New Millennium (FY13). We find the stock
attractively valued at 5.1x FY12E EV/EBITDA.
What will move the stock?
1) Brownfield expansion of 2.9mntpa at Jamshedpur to increase share of profitable Indian operations
(FY11 EBITDA/t of USD353 vs. consolidated USD138); 2) Improved capital structure with manageable
financial leverage (FY11 net D/E of 1.0x vs. 1.3x in FY10); 3) Progress on raw material integration in TSE;
4) Commencement of coal mining from Benga project in Mozambique, in which Tata Steel has 35% equity
and 40% offtake stake; 5) Expected improvement in steel profitability as high raw material prices ease.
Where are we stacked versus consensus?
Our consol.estimates are lower than the street. We value Tata Steel at Rs713 using SOTP methodology.
What will challenge our target price?
1) Raw material prices remaining high, squeezing margin for non-integrated operation of TSE resulting in
losses at the EBITDA level; 2) Delay in brownfield expansion; and 3) Delay in commencing mining at
Riversdale/ New Millennium.

SINTEX INDUSTRIES: BUY, TP-Rs240 (32% upside):: PINC Power Picks July 2011

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


What’s the theme?
Sintex has a diversified business model marked by low volatility in sales, profit and cash flows. It is a
market leader in the Monolithic and Prefab segment.
What will move the stock?
We like Sintex primarily because of: -
􀁺 Monolithic and Prefab segment are expected to show CAGR of 25% and 27% during FY11-FY13E
respectively.
􀁺 Acquired overseas and domestic subsidiaries likely to show operational improvement with 300bps
increase in subsidiary margin to 12.2% in FY13e vs. FY10.
􀁺 Emerging cash flow positive in FY12-FY13e through better management.
Where are we stacked versus consensus?
Our earnings estimates (EPS) for FY12 and FY13 are Rs20.2 and Rs23.6 respectively. Our FY12 earnings
estimate is 19% higher than consensus estimate of Rs19.9. We have a 'BUY' recommendation on the
stock with a target price of Rs240, which discounts FY12E earnings by 12x.
What will challenge our target price?
􀁺 Execution risks in the Monolithic and Prefab segments.
􀁺 Fluctuation in raw material prices denting margin.
􀁺 Delay in improvement of subsidiaries.

PHOENIX MILLS: BUY, TP-Rs240 (10% upside):: PINC Power Picks July 2011

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


What’s the theme?
PHNX's key project, High Street Phoenix (HSP), is now fully operational and is likely to generate rental
income of Rs2-2.2bn in FY12E.
What will move the stock?
We see the following near-term triggers for the stock: (1) Commencement of three Market City Projects in
Q2 -Q4 FY12; (2) Commencement of the first phase of Shangri-La Hotel in Q2-Q3FY12;
(3) HSP-Phase IV (0.25 msf) - although this provides a strong delta to the company's valuation, it may add
significant upside if PHNX manages to secure hospitality FSI (5x).
Where are we stacked versus consensus?
Our EPS estimates for FY12 and FY13 are Rs14.3 and Rs15.8 respectively. Our FY12 earnings estimate
is 45% higher than consensus estimate of Rs9.1. We have a 'BUY' recommendation on the stock with a
target price of Rs240, which discounts FY12E Gross NAV by 20%.
What will challenge our target price?
1) Slowdown in execution in Market City projects and extending free rental periods may hamper holding
company profitability; economic slowdown may affect revenue from Market City and HSP

NIIT TECH: BUY, TP-Rs285 (44% upside) (:: PINC Power Picks July 2011

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


What’s the theme?
NIIT Tech has large exposure to high-growth niche verticals such as insurance and travel. New service
lines would boost non-linear growth and lead to improvement in realizations. NIIT Tech has no exposure to
the PIIGS zone and it has been able to achieve volume growth in Europe despite economic headwinds.
Further, it has a differentiated strategy with new development of IPs in emerging technologies (cloud
services) and emerging verticals (healthcare).
What will move the stock?
1) Good performance in the BFSI and travel and transport verticals, which contribute ~74% to revenue;
2) Large untapped opportunity in the APAC markets that are expected to be highest IT spenders in CY11;
3) Strong order book and high bookings in Q4FY11 (USD116mn compared with USD50mn in Q3FY11 and
USD150mn in 9MFY11); 4) New order win announcements with recent JV with Morris Communication
(aggregate deal amount of USD85mn over 5 years); 5) Highest EBITDA margins among mid-tier peers in
the IT services business.
Where are we stacked versus consensus?
Our top-line estimates for FY12 and FY13 is in line with consensus, underpinned by stronger volumes
and modest uptick in pricing. Our EBITDA margin estimate for FY12 is 20.4% and for FY13 is 20.3%, in
line with consensus. Our EPS estimate for FY12 is 1.2% and for FY13 is 5.8% higher than consensus.
What will challenge our target price?
1) Slower recovery in Europe; 2) Sharp currency volatility; 3)

NESTLE: SELL, TP-Rs3,208 (26% downside):: PINC Power Picks July 2011

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


What’s the theme?
We believe entry of new players in the hitherto-secure noodles segment challenges Nestle's 'cash cow'. Further,
we believe the premium enjoyed by the stock vis-à-vis FMCG peers is unjustified and would correct.
What will move the stock?
1) Intense competition in the noodle segment (consist ~35% of total EBITDA) would impact the pricing
power. We expect decline in EBITDA margin by 31bps and 56bps in CY11 and CY12; 2) Nestle currently
trades at ~38% premium over FMCG sector however considering lower pricing power for key products
and pressure on return ratios we argue that Nestle should trade at a 25% premium (last two-year average).
Where are we stacked versus consensus?
Our estimates and target price are among the lowest on the street, led by pressure on EBITDA margin and
argument of narrowing down the Nestle's P/E premium to 25%. We assign P/E of 30x on next 12-months
earnings to derive TP of Rs3,208.
What will challenge our target price?
1) We expect Nestle would focus on retaining the volume market share for Maggi noodles therefore
assumes volume driven growth going forward. This assumption would result in lower profitability for Nestle
and any change in this proposition might change our estimates; 2) We expect ITC, GSK consumer and
HUL to be very aggressive in noodle segment, any delay in such efforts would again help Nestle to earn
better profitability.

MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA: BUY, TP-Rs836 (17% upside):: PINC Power Picks July 2011

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


What’s the theme?
With a wide product range, M&M has gained a significant market share in the utility vehicle (UV) segment.
It is all set to strengthen its dominance through new launches. Forecast for a normal monsoon augurs well
for the company due to its strong rural presence. This would help the company achieve double digitgrowth
of 11% in the tractor segment during FY12. In the automotive segment too, we expect volumes to
grow in double digits at 13.2% .
What will move the stock?
1) M&M expanded its range of pickup vehicles through the launch of Genio pickup in Jan'11. It followed
this with the launch of double cabin variant of the same product, which would further help it expand its
pickup portfolio. In the UV segment, a new SUV is expected to be launched by the year end. 2) Demand for
small commercial vehicles (SCVs), the fastest-growing commercial vehicles (CV) segment remains strong
and M&M has been successful in garnering 20% market share in the segment within 18 months of launch.
3) M&M is working on turning around its recent acquisition of Ssangyong, Korea. In CY11, M&M targets
revenue of USD3bn from Ssangyong vs.USD2bn in CY10. Two SUVs from the Ssangyong Motors' portfolio
(Rexton and Korando) would be assembled at M&M's Chakan facility. 4) Through its JV with Navistar, M&M
continues to expand its sales network for commercial vehicles.
Where are we stacked versus consensus?
We expect EPS of Rs41.6 and Rs47.9 in FY12 and FY13 respectively. Our FY12 earnings estimate is
8.8% lower than consensus estimate of Rs45.6. We value M&M using SOTP at Rs836, discounting the
standalone business at 13x FY13E earnings.
What will challenge our target price?
1) Steep raw material price increases and any further fuel price increases would weaken M&M's ability to
pass on costs to the customers; 2) Increased competition in the UV segment on new launches would affect
market share; and 3) Abnormal monsoons would negatively affect rural demand

JYOTHY LABS: BUY, TP-Rs265 (22% upside):: PINC Power Picks July 2011

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


What’s the theme?
Following the Henkel India acquisition, we expect numerous positives for Jyothy in the medium to long
term that would improve profitability. Jyothy is among the few companies in the FMCG space which has
immense potential for long-term profitability.
What will move the stock?
1) The acquisition of Henkel India added 4-5 established brands that improved Jyothy's sales mix; 2) Full
impact of the price increase of Ujala Supreme will support revenue and profitability growth; 3) Maxo Military
will add Rs600mn and Rs700mn revenue in FY12 and FY13 respectively; 4) We expect improvement in
profitability in Henkel India; 5) Debt restructuring can lead to higher profits; 6) Merger of Jyothy and
Henkel India will engender massive tax benefits of Rs1.2bn.
Where are we stacked versus consensus?
Our estimates for FY13 are among the highest on the street, led by expectation of profitability improvement
in Henkel India and 50% debt repayment during FY13. We assign 16x to FY13 earnings and add Rs12/
share NPV on tax saving of Rs1.2bn @12% discount rate to derive the TP of Rs265.
What will challenge our target price?
1) Change in our estimates for input costs owing to volatility in crude prices; 2) Inability to attract retail clients in
the laundry business; 3) Higher brand building investments; and 4) Any delay in operational improvement in
Henkel will start impacting the overall profitability.

JAGRAN PRAKASHAN (JPL): BUY, TP-Rs150 (31% upside):: PINC Power Picks July 2011

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


What’s the theme?
We like JPL for its leadership in UP (the largest print market in terms of readership and print ad value).
The company's strong position in growing regions such as Bihar and Jharkhand, good cost efficiency,
phased and planned expansion into other media businesses, and wide portfolio (including Mid-day, I-next
and Cityplus) strengthen our belief that it is well poised to benefit from steady growth in the print media
sector. In FY11, JPL's revenue increased 18.5% to Rs 11.1bn and net profit increased 17% to Rs 2.1bn.
Improved ad yields and increased focus on color ads led to 20% ad revenue growth and 3.5% circulation
revenue growth (despite increased competition from Hindustan and Dainik Bhaskar).
What will move the stock?
1) Momentum in ad revenue underpinned by anticipated growth across sectors such as education and
financial services (we expect 17% CAGR over FY11-FY13E); 2) Broad-based growth across various other
business verticals (including event and outdoor businesses); 3) Attractive valuation: At CMP, the stock is
attractive, valued at 14xFY13E EPS.
Where are we stacked versus consensus?
Our revenue estimate for FY13 is 3% above consensus. However our EPS estimate of Rs8.3 for FY13 is
7.5% below consensus.
What will challenge our target price?
1) Increase in newsprint prices; 2) Slowdown in the economy; 3) Increased competition in current markets
where JPL has a presence.

IRB INFRA: BUY, TP-Rs227 (21% upside):: PINC Power Picks July 2011

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


What’s the theme?
In the Infra segment that has been languishing due to fundamental issues, we prefer IRB for its unique
ability to manage and win competitive projects. We strongly believe in the sustainability of IRB's business
model. The company is well positioned to add projects worth $1bn per annum.
What will move the stock?
1) NHAI is likely to award 7,300km of projects in FY12. With the Ahm-Vado project in its bag, the road
ahead becomes easier. We expect IRB to maintain 8% share in the medium term.
2) Recent underperformance due to the Ahm-Vado project provides cushion to its stock price; we expect
this project to be a strategic fit to IRB and expect it to provide 12% equity IRR and 7% project IRR.
Where are we stacked versus consensus?
Our FY12E and FY13E earnings estimates are at Rs14.0 and Rs10.5, which are 5.3% and 36.1% lower
than consensus estimates respectively. We expect top-line growth of 27.7% at Rs 31.1bn for FY12E and
18.1% at Rs36.7bn for FY13E vs. consensus estimate of 36.1% at Rs33.2bn and 30.7% at Rs43.4bn
respectively.
We believe the recent correction in stock price provides a good entry point for long-term investors. The
stock offers an upside potential of 20.9% at our SOTP-based target price of Rs227 vs. consensus target
of Rs234.
What will challenge our target price?
1) Further increase in interest rate, would lower IRR. 2) Infusion of Rs12.8bn equity in Ahm-Vado project
may strain the balance sheet 3) Lower traffic growth 4) Any change in government policy would adversely
affect IRB's tolling charges.

HCL TECH: BUY, TP-Rs630 (29% upside):: PINC Power Picks July 2011

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


What’s the theme?
Uptick in discretionary IT spend and recovery in the European market will boost volume growth for HCL
Tech. Margin expansion through improving employee pyramid and scale efficiencies.
What will move the stock?
1) Strongest volume growth of ~5%QoQ, highest among peers in Q4FY11; 2) Outperformance in emerging
verticals like energy and utilities and retail; 3) High growth in Enterprise Application Services and Custom
Applications segments driven by discretionary spend; 4) Higher EBITDA margins in the near term supported
by higher offshoring and utilization; 5) Support to EBITDA margin due to improvement in employee pyramid
as last 4-5 quarters have seen huge lateral addition that is likely to be subdued going ahead; 6) Absence
of forex losses (cash flow hedges) will provide positive support to the bottom-line.
Where are we stacked versus consensus?
Our revenue estimates vary from consensus by ~(1)% for FY12 and for FY13 it is in line with consensus,
underpinned by stronger volumes and modest uptick in pricing. Our EBITDA margin forecast for FY12 and
FY13 is higher than consensus by 70bps and 20bps respectively. Our FY12 EPS estimate is in line with
consensus whereas for FY13 it is 1% higher than consensus.
What will challenge our target price?
1) Slower recovery in the US economy; 2) Appreciation of INR vs. USD and strengthening of USD against
EUR 3) Higher attrition and wage increments;

GODAWARI POWER: BUY, TP-Rs278 (70% upside):: PINC Power Picks July 2011

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


What’s the theme?
We expect GPIL to benefit from earnings CAGR of 30% over FY11-FY13E on volume growth and margin
expansion. This would be driven by higher output from the Ari Dongri mines, the 0.6mntpa pellet plant,
and the 20MW biomass power plant. Further, 0.6 mntpa pellet plant of 75% subsidiary Ardent Steel also
started stabilizing with 37% CU in Q4FY11 and is expected to provide additional earnings growth.
What will move the stock?
1) Stabilisation of the newly commissioned 20MW biomass power plant; 2) Higher output from the Ari
Dongri iron ore mine and 0.6mntpa pellet plant, helping revenue growth and margin expansion;
3) Stabilisation of operations at Ardent Steel providing additional volume and earnings growth; 4) Mining
commencing at the Boria Tibu, impacted by delay in handover of forest area.
Where are we stacked versus consensus?
Our FY12 EBITDA stands 22% above consensus as we expect improved performance from Ardent Steel.
For Ardent Steel, we assume CU of 60% in FY12E and 70% in FY13E.
What will challenge our target price?
1) Impediments in ramping up of output from the pellet plant (own as well as in sub. Ardent Steel) and
20MW power plant; 2) Negative impact of foray into 50MW Solar power project. GPIL already invested
Rs1.2bn equity (valued at 10% discount to invested capital) and achieved financial closure for debt
requirement of Rs5.8bn for the project,); 3) Continued delay in acquiring forest land in the Boria Tibu
mine, and 4) Simultaneous decline in steel prices and power tariff.

BAJAJ AUTO: BUY, TP-Rs1,665 (16% upside):: PINC Power Picks July 2011

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


What’s the theme?
With the success of Pulsar135 and Discover twins (100cc and 150cc), Bajaj Auto's brand-centric strategy has
been validated. In its attempt to leverage its highly successful 'Pulsar' and 'Discover' brands Bajai Auto recently
launched Discover125cc and is all set to launch Pulsar250cc in September'11. These high-margin brands now
account for 70% of the company's motorcycle sales. In addition, continued demand for three-wheelers and
robust exports would help Bajaj Auto achieve volume growth of 16.2% in FY12 and 11.9% in FY13.
What will move the stock?
1) Despite rising macro headwinds, we expect Bajaj Auto to be less sensitive to such concerns and the slew of
product launches in the future would help the company maintain its market share with domestic volume growth
of 16%, in line with industry. 2) Export outlook continues to be stable with total exports expected to touch 1.4mn
in FY12. 3) Management expects to improve market share with growth of 22% to 4.8mn units during FY12 as
against our volume estimate of 4.5mn units. 4) Increased proportion of high-margin motorcycles and continued
contribution of three-wheelers would enable the company to tide over the input cost pressures and restrict the
contraction in margins to 70bps 5) The DEPB export incentive was extended by three months up to end Sep'11
post which incentive in the form of duty drawback are expected to continue with a reduced rate of 4-5%. With
price increases in the export markets and better cost efficiency, management expects to maintain margins.
Where are we stacked versus consensus?
Our FY12 and FY13 earnings estimates are Rs107.5 and Rs123.3 respectively. We have a 'BUY'
recommendation on the stock with a target price of Rs1,665, discounting FY13E earnings at 13.5x. Our
FY12 earnings estimate is 6.1% higher than consensus estimate of Rs101.3.
What will challenge our target price?
1) Significant increase in prices of commodities such as steel and rubber are likely to increasingly pressurise
margins. 2) The company draws significant benefits from DEPB export benefit scheme and in case the
scheme is entirely withdrawn our earnings estimate would reduce to the tune of 10%.

ASHOKA BUILDCON: BUY, TP-Rs363 (29% upside) :: PINC Power Picks July 2011

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


What’s the theme?
Ashoka Buildcon (ABL) has experience of over a decade in BOT road projects. It has 23 projects in its portfolio
of which 16 are operational. ABL is among the few BOT developers who have seen complete life cycle of a
project. It has handed over four BOT assets back to the government. ABL also has a strong in-house EPC arm,
which executes in-house as well as third-party contracts.
What will move the stock?
1) Post IPO, ABL aims to be in the next league with an aggressive but calculated bidding strategy. In
FY11, ABL has won projects worth more than Rs30bn. We expect ABL to maintain its market share of
3.5% for FY12 and FY13 in NHAI bidding.
2) No dilution likely in the medium term; ABL would require equity of Rs8bn in next 3 years, which is likely
to come from internal accruals and securitization / stake sale of existing projects.
Valuation & Recommendation
We value ABL's BOT project (DCF basis) at equity multiple of 1.6x and 1.1x FY12E and FY13E. Our
SOTP-based target price is Rs363, with BOT valued at Rs208 and EPC at Rs155 at 9x FY12E earnings.
We have a 'BUY' recommendation on the stock.
What will challenge our target price?
1) Further increase in interest rate lowering IRR; 2) Lower traffic growth; 3) Slowdown in execution of
current orders; 4) Any change in government policy adversely affecting tolling charges

KIFS Result update of Zydus,BOC,BASF,Supreme Petrochem

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


KIFS Result update of:
ZYDUS WELLNESS Q1 FY12
OVERVIEW
Zydus is engaged in the business of manufacturing and selling of all types of health food and wellness product. It combines the best of healthcare, nutrition and cosmeceuticals to bring to its users an array of the best wellness products to enrich its customers' life. Its products comprise Sugar Free, Nutralite and EverYuth. The Company also made its foray in neutraceuticals space by launching ActiLife, a nutritional milk additive for adults. The management is targeting revenue of Rs. 500 crores by 2013-14 by creating newer experiences through its products that nourish, nurture and energies the lives of the consumers.
Key highlights:
· Total income  grew marginally to Rs. 88 cr. v/s Rs. 87 cr in June-10
· Operating Profit grew by 24% Y-o-Y to Rs. 15 cr.  v/s Rs. 12 cr in June-10
· OPM grew by 323 bps Y-o-Y to 16.75%  v/s 13.52 % in June-10
· Net profit grew by 10 % Y-o-Y to Rs. 8.5 cr.  v/s Rs. 7.7 cr in June-10
· NPM grew by 87 bps Y-o-Y to 9.62 %  v/s 8.75 % in June-10
BOC INDIA Q1 FY12
OVERVIEW
BOC India (BOCI) is engaged in manufacturing of industrial gases and undertaking engineering projects. The company supplies more than 20,000 gases and mixtures - that makes steel plants more efficient, helps conserving environment, preservation of food, helping hospitals sustain lives and in general makes customers more productive. BOC India owns one of the Asia’s largest air separation units. The company owns more than 20 manufacturing units, 40 warehouses and depots, 100 dealers and more than 100 dedicated tankers in the distribution fleet. BOC India has signed 15 year gas supply agreement with Steel Authority of India (SAIL) Rourkela Steel Plant.
Key highlights:
· Total income  grew by 1% Y-o-Y to Rs. 250 cr. v/s Rs. 249 cr in June-10
· Operating Profit grew by 12% Y-o-Y to Rs. 53 cr.  v/s Rs. 48cr in June-10
· OPM grew by 306 bps Y-o-Y to 21.34%  v/s 18.28% in June-10
· Net profit grew by 11% Y-o-Y to Rs. 27 cr.  v/s Rs. 24 cr in June-10
· NPM grew by 151 bps Y-o-Y to 10.77%  v/s 9.26 % in June-10
BASF INDIA Q1 FY12
OVERVIEW
BASF India Ltd (BIL) is the flagship company of the Germany-based BASF group’s India operations. BASF is world’s leading company in chemical sector. BASF Group is a conglomerate that caters to various segments such as plastics, care chemicals, construction chemicals, petrochemicals, automotive and refinery chemicals, paper chemicals etc. BASF India has three manufacturing facilities located in Thane, Mangalore and Dadra.
Key highlights:
· Total income  grew by 53% Y-o-Y to Rs. 1016 cr. v/s Rs. 664 cr in June-10
· Operating Profit grew by 10% Y-o-Y to Rs. 91 cr.  v/s Rs. 83 cr in June-10
· OPM fell by 347 bps Y-o-Y to 8.99%  v/s 12.46% in June-10
· Net profit grew by 8% Y-o-Y to Rs. 53 cr.  v/s Rs. 49 cr in June-10
· NPM fell by 218 bps Y-o-Y to 5.18%  v/s 7.36 % in June-10
SUPREME PETROCHEM Q1 FY12
OVERVIE
Supreme Petrochem Ltd (SPL) is a joint venture between the Supreme Industries Ltd. and the Rajan Raheja Group. SPL is the leader in Polystyrene business in the Indian market place with a share of more than 50%. SPL is also the largest exporter of PS from India, exporting to over 80 countries around the globe. Currently SPL's exports are over 100,000 tonne per year. Supreme Petrochem owns and operates a state-of-the art Polystyrene facility, with an installed capacity of 2,72,000 TPA located at Nagothane in Raigad District. The facility also includes a world class colouring and compounding facility with an installed capacity of 17000 TPA.
Key highlights:
· Total income  grew by 11% Y-o-Y to Rs. 518 cr. v/s Rs. 466 cr in June-10
· Operating Profit grew by 34% Y-o-Y to Rs. 38 cr.  v/s Rs. 28 cr in June-10
· OPM grew by 127 bps Y-o-Y to 7.39%  v/s 6.12% in June-10
· Net profit grew by 56% Y-o-Y to Rs. 21 cr.  v/s Rs. 14 cr in June-10
· NPM grew by 119 bps Y-o-Y to 4.1%  v/s 2.91 % in June-10

BSE, Bulk deals, 21/7/2011

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Deal DateScrip CodeCompanyClient NameDeal Type *QuantityPrice **
21/7/2011532331Ajanta PharmaKAMAL KUMAR JALAN SEC. PVT. LTDB65936353.27
21/7/2011532331Ajanta PharmaKAMAL KUMAR JALAN SEC. PVT. LTDS65936353.18
21/7/2011532475AptechCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDB287592131.59
21/7/2011532475AptechCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDS287592131.64
21/7/2011524760Arvind Intl-$HARSHA MAYURBHAI SHETHB20388916.24
21/7/2011524760Arvind Intl-$BHAVIK VASTUPAL SHAHS5000016.25
21/7/2011524760Arvind Intl-$HARSHA MAYURBHAI SHETHS8000016.26
21/7/2011505029Atlas CycleR M SHARES TRADING PRIVATE LIMITEDB24977404.94
21/7/2011505029Atlas CycleCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDB100168405.72
21/7/2011505029Atlas CycleA K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTDB87717407.72
21/7/2011505029Atlas CycleCHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS PRIVATE LIMITEDB39985405.70
21/7/2011505029Atlas CycleEUREKA STOCK & SHARE BROKING SERVICES LTDB23477408.60
21/7/2011505029Atlas CycleCHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS PRIVATE LIMITEDS39985406.25
21/7/2011505029Atlas CycleA K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTDS87717407.64
21/7/2011505029Atlas CycleCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDS100168406.14
21/7/2011505029Atlas CycleEUREKA STOCK & SHARE BROKING SERVICES LTDS23477408.45
21/7/2011505029Atlas CycleR M SHARES TRADING PRIVATE LIMITEDS24977405.65
21/7/2011506971BB REALTYASHU BHANDARIS8167524.06
21/7/2011517246BCC FubaMAHAVIRSINGH N CHAUHANS620008.57
21/7/2011511664BGIL FilmsSRI MOHD RASHIDB1000015.61
21/7/2011511664BGIL FilmsVARDHMAN INVESTMENTB515215.37
21/7/2011511664BGIL FilmsRAPID CREDIT & HOLDINGS PRIVATE LIMITEDB361385.51
21/7/2011511664BGIL FilmsCNB FINWIZ LIMITEDB350005.50
21/7/2011511664BGIL FilmsCNB FINWIZ LIMITEDS350005.61
21/7/2011511664BGIL FilmsTOUCHLINE SECURITIES PRIVATE LTDS384005.55
21/7/2011511664BGIL FilmsVARDHMAN INVESTMENTS385205.51
21/7/2011506027Bhoruka AlumSUKHY COMMERCIAL AND TRADING PRIVATE LIMITEDS30000025.09
21/7/2011531420BMB MusicVINAY JAINB3400010.17
21/7/2011533276BS TranscommMUKUND MOTOR PARTS PVT LTDS110808133.00
21/7/2011511672Clarus FinanceANMOL FINPRO PRIVATE LIMITEDB100000204.90
21/7/2011511672Clarus FinanceMANISH JAINARAYAN KARWA(HUF)S100000200.45
21/7/2011531695Dhvanil ChemANJANIYASODA MADHAVI PERLAB5000072.76
21/7/2011533333Fineotex ChemMUKUND MOTOR PARTS PVT LTDB175000302.41
21/7/2011533333Fineotex ChemAARKEN ADVISORS PVT LTDB75000301.00
21/7/2011533333Fineotex ChemJALAN CEMENT WORKS LIMITEDS90000301.80
21/7/2011531055GFLFINABHIJAI INVESTMENTB2000082.00
21/7/2011531055GFLFINMEENAKSHI VINOD GADAS2770082.00
21/7/2011531505Indergiri FinRENU AGGARWALB3234212.20
21/7/2011531505Indergiri FinBABITA MITTALB3560012.20
21/7/2011531505Indergiri FinHEMANT KUMAR DEMBLAS3514212.20
21/7/2011532894Indowind EnerSYNDICATE NIRMAN PRIVATE LIMITEDB48500021.66
21/7/2011532894Indowind EnerVANRAJSINGH KAHORB117304021.67
21/7/2011532894Indowind EnerVANRAJSINGH KAHORS113172119.25
21/7/2011523840Innovative TechPARINEETA ANOOP CHAUDHARIS13640105.53
21/7/2011530165Kanchan IntlMAHENDRA SUKHALAL KUMBHAREB2500089.58
21/7/2011532641Nandan EximCHIRIPAL INDUSTRIES LIMITEDB35000002.63
21/7/2011532641Nandan EximVEDPRAKASH DEVKINANDAN CHIRIPALS35000002.63
21/7/2011530811Netvista InfoMAHAVIRSINGH N CHAUHANS1683745.01
21/7/2011532798Network18 MediaCITIGROUP GLOBAL MARKETS MAURITIUS PRIVATE LIMITEDB3121159128.45
21/7/2011532798Network18 MediaHARESH RAM CHAWLAS3119403128.45
21/7/2011530173Oscar GlobalMAHAVIRSINGH N CHAUHANS209108.74
21/7/2011533399Paramount PrintMUNJAL S MEHTAS35000028.67
21/7/2011511702Parsharti InvDHARMESH JAYESHKUMAR SONIB1985536.50
21/7/2011511702Parsharti InvDHAVAL SATISHKUMAR AGRAWALB1893537.38
21/7/2011511652Ram KaashyapMAHESH SANKARACHAND DESAIB1000007.01
21/7/2011511652Ram KaashyapABHA SINGHANIAB2383837.01
21/7/2011511652Ram KaashyapPARESH JAYDEVBHAI RAOB500007.01
21/7/2011511652Ram KaashyapRAKESH M MEHTA HUFB500007.01
21/7/2011511652Ram KaashyapCENTRE DEALERS PRIVATE LIMITEDS836377.01
21/7/2011511652Ram KaashyapNARENDRA PANWARS609027.01
21/7/2011511652Ram KaashyapASHOK KUMARS571017.01
21/7/2011511652Ram KaashyapSANGEETA MANAGEMENT CONSULTANCY PRIVATE LIMITEDS2702587.01
21/7/2011511652Ram KaashyapGLOBAL CONCEPTSS2755477.01
21/7/2011511652Ram KaashyapDEEPAK KUMAR SHARMAS3102907.01
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECORR M SHARES TRADING PRIVATE LIMITEDB239427160.16
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECORDATTANI RAJESH PRABHUDASB94200169.11
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECORMANSUKH SECURITIES & FINANCE LTDB92956161.68
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECORGKN SECURITIESB77645162.25
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECORVICKY RAJESH JHAVERIB319837158.01
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECORAKSHAR ENTERTAINMENT PRIVATE LTDB235143174.00
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECORA K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTDB502198163.63
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECOREUREKA STOCK & SHARE BROKING SERVICES LTDB72350165.18
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECORCHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS PRIVATE LIMITEDB166028159.93
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECORMARWADI SHARES AND FINANCE LIMITEDB118685166.88
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECORAMIT MANILAL GALAB83540165.86
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECORNIKHIL SECURITIES LIMITEDB161583163.34
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECORAMBER ENCLAVE PRIVATE LIMITEDB258294162.20
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECORCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDB620599160.00
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECORA K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTDS502198163.80
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECORCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDS620599159.55
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECORAMIT MANILAL GALAS83540166.16
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECORNIKHIL SECURITIES LIMITEDS161583163.45
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECORAMBER ENCLAVE PRIVATE LIMITEDS344466170.58
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECORMARWADI SHARES AND FINANCE LIMITEDS118685166.70
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECORCHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS PRIVATE LIMITEDS165285160.12
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECORGKN SECURITIESS77645161.92
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECOREUREKA STOCK & SHARE BROKING SERVICES LTDS72350165.17
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECORVICKY RAJESH JHAVERIS319837159.36
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECORMANSUKH SECURITIES & FINANCE LTDS92956161.58
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECORDATTANI RAJESH PRABHUDASS94200169.12
21/7/2011533470RUSHIL DECORR M SHARES TRADING PRIVATE LIMITEDS239427159.90
21/7/2011530617Sampre NutrRAJ KUMAR LOHIAB5600310.00
21/7/2011530617Sampre NutrRAHUL BALPANDES5639510.00
21/7/2011504918Sandur MangEURO INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES PRIVATE LIMITEDB87261573.00
21/7/2011504918Sandur MangSANDUR SALES AND SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDS87261573.00
21/7/2011531312Sanraa MediaJMP SECURITIES PVT LTDB104740480.14
21/7/2011531312Sanraa MediaJMP SECURITIES PVT LTDS78447000.14
21/7/2011521228Tatia GlobalSOHIT INFRABUILD PRIVATE LIMITEDB7500004.35
21/7/2011521228Tatia GlobalPRIMUS REAL ESTATES PRIVATE LIMITEDS10095754.35
21/7/2011531644Tokyo FinancePRITI HARESH SHAHB1033628.32
21/7/2011531644Tokyo FinanceMAHAVIRSINGH N CHAUHANS874298.32
21/7/2011507747TTK Healthcare-$CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDB120616592.72
21/7/2011507747TTK Healthcare-$A K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTDB141973604.25
21/7/2011507747TTK Healthcare-$CHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS PRIVATE LIMITEDB57532590.46
21/7/2011507747TTK Healthcare-$R M SHARES TRADING PRIVATE LIMITEDB40331590.85
21/7/2011507747TTK Healthcare-$R M SHARES TRADING PRIVATE LIMITEDS40331590.91
21/7/2011507747TTK Healthcare-$CHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS PRIVATE LIMITEDS57532591.24
21/7/2011507747TTK Healthcare-$A K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTDS141973605.09
21/7/2011507747TTK Healthcare-$CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDS120616592.84
21/7/2011517429VJIL Consulting-$VENKAT RAO JALAGAMS14000015.75
* B - Buy, S - Sell
** = Weighted Average Trade Price / Trade Price