30 June 2011

Grey market premium, June 30, 2011: Indian IPOs and NCDs (bonds)

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Company Name
Offer Price (Rs)
Expected Listing Price Premium
Shriram Transport Finance  Bond
1,000
3% - 4%
IFCI Bonds
10,000
2% - 3%
Birla Pacific Medspa
10 to 11
Discount
Rushil Decor
72
Discount
Readymade Steel
90 to 108
1- 2


30/6/11: FII & DII Turnover (BSE + NSE) (Rs. crore)

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FII & DII Turnover (BSE + NSE)
(Rs. crore)
FIIDII
Trade DateBuySalesNetBuySalesNet
30/6/115,361.853,770.511,591.341,180.971,954.35-773.38
29/6/113,099.162,429.81669.351,290.671,531.26-240.59
28/6/112,774.221,954.81819.41999.421,574.48-575.06
Jun , 1153,473.2350,810.502,662.7321,175.8821,275.55-99.67
Since 1/1/11   *326,231.23335,200.57-8,969.34147,692.84133,181.6214,511.22

Economic and Political News 􀂄 30 June 11:: Angel Broking,

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Economic and Political News
􀂄 GDP to grow by 8.5%, fuel price hike not to impact deficit: Finance Minister
􀂄 GoM on Coal to meet on July 14 over green hurdles
􀂄 May refinery output rises by 4.5% yoy: Government
􀂄 India, Japan to implement CEPA from August 1
Corporate News
􀂄 NHPC to finalise JV for three projects in Odisha
􀂄 ONGC board approves follow-on share sale offer
􀂄 Tata Steel sees up to 11% demand growth in current fiscal
􀂄 Welspun inks `2,250cr PE deal
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

30 June, 2011: Equity Buy/Sell (Technical View) IFCI research,

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Equity Buy/Sell (Technical View)
Ø  We have already mentioned most of the following scrips for medium term investment. Investors can accumulate above the levels mentioned :

o   Bata India > 594 ;                     CESC > 304/50 ;                Hind Lever > 336/50 ;
o   LIC Hsg Fin. > 244 ;                  Ranbaxy > 552 ;                Sun Pharma > 505 ;
o   ITC > 202.


Ø  The following scrips are good in the short term :

o   Bajaj Hind > 70/75 ; DCB > 61 ;                          Financial Tech > 881 ;
o   Gitanjali Gems > 301 ;                                        Hind Zinc > 137/50

Have strict stop losses

Buy Exide Industries - ""Still charging"":: LKP

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Slowing demand from OEM to spur high margin replacement business
With macro headwinds slowing down the OEM segment of the auto sector, Exide can now cater more to the replacement market where the demand continues to be robust driven by slew of 4W and 2W launches during the last few years. Management had earlier stated that their topline growth is inversely proportional to the growth in the OEM auto industry. It implies that replacement business which is a high margin business can contribute higher to the total topline. At the end of FY 11, this proportion which had come down to 1.11:1 due to robust OEM demand can move up again, thus aiding the margin performance. Management expects this ratio to go up to 1.35:1 by the end of FY 12.
Cooling lead prices to support margins
LME Lead prices have come down from the highs of $2741 seen in April by 11% in May to $2418, a drop of 11%. In June it averaged out close to the levels of May. Management expects a further decline in lead prices going forward with commodity prices softening, however they are comfortable even if lead prices continue to range at current levels of $2400-2500. This coupled with higher replacement demand may enable Exide to show an improvement in margins. With in-house smelters expected to supply 60% and 70% of lead requirement in FY 12E and FY 13E (priced lower by ~15% than LME lead prices) we may witness robust profitability in the coming years.
Absence in CV segment a blessing in disguise
Exide has a miniscule presence in the CV segment.Exide’s absence in this segment is automatically insulating it from the macro headwinds thereby providing it an edge over peers. Furthermore, the 2W industry, the major revenue driver of Exide in the auto segment, is expected to be the last to face the pressure of slowdown in auto and post the highest growth among the various auto segments in FY12. Strong rural demand, expectations of a good monsoon and insignificant impact of interest rates- the positives for 2W in weak markets will drive Exide’s business, in which the company is expanding its capacities by more than double this year. Also the launch of new VRLA batteries is finding good demand among 2W makers.
Improvement in telecom industry  augurs well for industrial business
Telecom industry which had seen rough times in the past 2 years has started improving recently with competition slowing down, volumes still going robust and regulatory issues taking a back seat. Exide had reduced their focus on telecom business significantly. It now forms 12-15% of the company’s revenues from 20% two years back. However, with the increase in its industrial capacities, Exide can easily accommodate higher demand from telecom industry. With summers still harsh in most of the parts of the country, and with a probability of a delayed monsoon across India, inverter demand may go up.
Outlook and Valuation
We like the robust free cash generating business of Exide and have slightly increased our earnings estimates by 2%/6% for FY12E/FY13E and now value the standalone business at a higher multiple of 16x to value it at Rs.174. Adding subsidiary value of  Rs.13 and insurance business at Rs.11, we arrive at a TP of Rs.196, up from our earlier target of Rs.176. We reiterate our BUY rating on Exide with a higher price target of Rs.196, which is a 20% upside from current levels.
 

BSE, Bulk deals, 30/6/2011

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Deal DateScrip CodeCompanyClient NameDeal Type *QuantityPrice **
30/6/2011533412AANJANEYATRISONS AGENCIESB100000370.00
30/6/2011531686Advik LabSANA PASRICHAS699713.70
30/6/2011590059APL APOLLOMANOJ GUPTAS132958142.03
30/6/2011512608Bhandari HosHARSHA MAYURBHAI SHETHB6300032.74
30/6/2011512608Bhandari HosHARSHA MAYURBHAI SHETHS6300032.90
30/6/2011532913Circuit SysPARESH NAVNIT VASANIB472747013.01
30/6/2011532913Circuit SysMAGANBHAI HARJIVANDAS PATELS412747012.85
30/6/2011532913Circuit SysANANDBHAI ANILBHAI PATELS60000014.13
30/6/2011512361Cupid TradesRAMASHIVALEASEFINANCE PRIVATELIMITEDB500095.75
30/6/2011532760Deep IndsHN ORGANISERS & DEVELOPERS LLPB32820055.53
30/6/2011532760Deep IndsUDAY HASMUKHLAL VORAB14705865.01
30/6/2011532760Deep IndsDHIREN HASMUKHLAL VORAB23212856.10
30/6/2011524590Dinesh AllorgaDINESHBHAI SHANABHAI PATELS2370026.53
30/6/2011531055GFLFINCHIRAG DINESHKUMAR SHAHB1500079.46

NSE, Bulk deals, 30-June-2011

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DateSymbolSecurity NameClient NameBuy / SellQuantity TradedTrade Price /
Wght. Avg.
Price
Remarks
30-Jun-2011AANJANEYAAanjaneya Lifecare LtdTRISONS AGENCIES PROP - KAMLESH MANOHAR KANUNGOBUY1,00,000370.00-
30-Jun-2011BALRAMCHINBalrampur Chini MillsBALRAMPUR CHINI MILLS LTDBUY22,00,00062.87-
30-Jun-2011BALRAMCHINBalrampur Chini MillsBARCLAYS CAPITAL MAURITIUS LIMITEDSELL22,20,00061.88-
30-Jun-2011BHARATFORGBharat Forge LtdBARCLAYS CAPITAL MAURITIUS LIMITEDSELL12,71,000307.59-
30-Jun-2011DEEPINDDeep Industries LtdHN ORGANISERS AND DEVELOPERS LLPBUY5,90,41454.51-
30-Jun-2011DEEPINDDeep Industries LtdIDFC MUTUAL FUND A/C CLASSIC EQUITY FUNDSELL1,38,97754.53-
30-Jun-2011DEEPINDDeep Industries LtdVORA UDAY HASMUKHLALBUY1,18,13557.99-
30-Jun-2011GALGyscoal Alloys LtdAMAR HARSHADBHAI PATELBUY93,85315.11-
30-Jun-2011GALGyscoal Alloys LtdAMAR HARSHADBHAI PATELSELL93,85316.35-
30-Jun-2011GTLGTL LimitedCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.BUY5,85,90593.07-
30-Jun-2011GTLGTL LimitedCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.SELL5,84,96093.32-
30-Jun-2011HANUNGHanung Toys and TextilesCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.BUY1,35,764151.26-

30/6/11: Categories Turnover (Rs. crore) Clients; NRI; Proprietary

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Categories Turnover
(Rs. crore)
ClientsNRIProprietary
Trade DateBuySalesNetBuySalesNetBuySalesNet
30/6/111,832.101,893.35-61.251.170.690.48602.05570.3931.66
29/6/111,938.962,006.43-67.470.741.71-0.97621.28608.2313.05
28/6/111,915.211,863.6151.600.230.40-0.17555.55527.9027.65
Jun , 1138,620.9038,805.64-184.7327.7426.760.9812,401.8112,224.21177.59
Since 1/1/11270,552.87275,277.76-4,724.88148.93126.7622.1777,433.9676,912.10521.86

June 30, 2011: Derivative Report India Research -Angel Broking,

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Comments
 The Nifty futures’ open interest increased by 10.90%
while Minifty futures’ open interest increased by 6.25% as
market closed at 5600.45 levels.
 The Nifty June future closed at a premium of 3.65 points,
against a premium of 3.75 points in the last trading
session, while the July future closed at a premium of
22.65 points.
 The Implied Volatility of at the money options was at the
same levels of 21.00% in June series and IV for July
series was 18.00%.
 The PCR-OI increased from 1.45 to 1.47 points.
 The total OI of the market is `1,60,649cr and the stock
futures OI is `36,236cr.
 Rollover of Nifty futures is 53.66% and Minifty futures is
54.20% while the market wide rollover is 67.87%.


View
 FIIs formed long positions in the Index futures. They
were net buyers of `669cr in the cash market
segment.
 In yesterday’s trading session, huge build up was
observed in the 5700 call option and 5600 and
5500 put options of June series. In July series, most
of the call and put options added considerable open
interest.
 JINDALSTEL is showing some buying from lower
levels. Base metal prices in LME are also positive. We
may see a positive move up to `660. Traders can
trade with positive bias in July series with a stop loss
of `624.
 LICHSGFIN has strong resistance around current
levels. CoC has also turned to negative. We may see
some correction in the counter. Positive opening
around 444 levels can be used to trade with negative
bias in July series with a stop loss of `448 for the
target of `230.
 Few liquid stocks where rollover is less are
JINDALSAW, PANTALOONR, RCOM and CIPLA.

June 30, 2011: Market Outlook India Research- Angel Broking,

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Dealer’s Diary
The key benchmark indices opened on a firm note tracking higher Asian shares.
A bout of volatility was witnessed as the key benchmark indices regained
strength after paring gains from 3.5-week highs in morning trade. The market
surged to 6.5-week high in mid-morning trade but trimmed gains in early
afternoon trade. The market held firm in mid-afternoon trade and surged to
fresh intraday high in late trade. The key benchmark indices extended gains in
late trade as world stocks rose, buoyed by hopes that the Greek parliament will
vote in favour of additional austerity measures with the Sensex and Nifty ending
up by 1.1% and 1.0%, respectively. The mid-cap and small-cap indices also
closed in green, up by 0.8% and 1.0%, respectively. Among the front-runners,
Sterlite Industries, ITC, HUL, HDFC Bank and Reliance Infra gained 2–4%,
while ONGC, Bajaj Auto, Jaiprakash Associates, DLF and M&M lost 0–2%.
Among mid caps, KS Oils, Bata India, Shree Renuka Sugars, Page Industries
and Hathway Cable gained 7–16%, while Bajaj Holdings, GTL, Kirloskar Oil
Engine, S Kumar Nation and J&K Bank lost 3–5%.
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 18,654/5,592 levels. If NIFTY trades
above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a
further rally up to 18,755 –18,817/5,617–5,634 levels. However, if NIFTY
trades below 18,654/5,592 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may
correct up to 18,592–18,491/5,575–5,550 levels

30 June 2011:: Morning News (click on link to read article) IFCI research,

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Morning News (click on link to read article)
Economic Times

Business Standard

Business Line
Mint

Financial Express

DNA Money

   (Click on link to view article)