06 April 2011

Suzlon- Hold- In a consolidation phase,:: Deutsche Bank,

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Suzlon's proposal to increase stake in REpower from 95% to 100% could
look challenging if seen from the aspect of weak financials - which led to
debt restructuring, FCCB restructuring, continued quarterly loss for the last
seven quarters and importantly rising stock price of REpower. With the acquisition
largely funded out of FCCB, the challenge for Suzlon would be an
effort to reduce RM/sales by ~100 bps at REpower post acquisition - which
could fund the entire transaction. At the current price, reiterate Hold with a
TP of INR 51/sh.
Suzlon initiates 'squeeze-out procedure' for minority holders of REpower
Further to recent acquisition of shares in REpower, the company has sent
a notice to the management board of REpower to initiate the 'squeeze-out'
procedure on minority shareholders. Under the German Stock Corporation
Act, a shareholding of 95.0% in a German stock corporation enables the
majority shareholder to initiate squeeze-out proceedings in respect of minority
shareholders, where they are forced to surrender their equity rights
at the court approved valuation. At the current price of REpower, we estimate
the cost of acquisition for 9% at INR 7.5bn. Deal is to be financed
partly through promoter loans and recent FCCB issue (USD 150mn).
Long term positive for Suzlon, however near-term pressure on cash
flows
As per the company, the squeeze-out procedure may take up to one year.
We believe this is a long-term positive for the company, as now it can benefit
from synergies. So far, it was prevented by German laws to sign any
'domino agreements' with REpower without permission of minority shareholders.
However, with the 100% stake, the company can leverage
REpower's expertise in 'off-shore' technology in Suzlon, while providing
Suzlon's low-cost vendor base to REpower. In the near-term , however, the
cash outgo for the transaction is likely to stretch the cash flows of the company,
and increase the financial leverage (Net debt: equity of ~ 1.62x).
(Please refer to our note titled ' Suzlon - Slowly emerging out of the woods'
dated 22 Feb, 2011). We maintain Hold as we believe the likely demand
recovery, particularly in the domestic markets, should help the company.

Sentiment remains upbeat ahead of the new 10 year bond issue : Edelweiss,

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Government securities
 Sovereign bonds ended firm, with the 8.13% 2022 bond & the 8.08% 2022
gaining the most, as sentiment was boosted by the central bank’s decision to issue
a new ten year benchmark on Friday. GoI will begin its INR 4.17trn borrowing by
auctioning INR 40bn of a new seven year benchmark, INR 50bn of the new ten
year and INR 30bn of the 8.30% 2040 bond. The most liquid 8.13% 2022 bond
gained 3bps closing at 8.05% however the current ten year benchmark bond
remained the underperformer since it is likely to become illiquid once the new ten
year bond is traded.
Non-SLR market
 Short terms rates eased due to the lower demand for funds from banks. In March,
banks placed ~INR 780bn through CD issuances and the demand is relatively
lower at the start of the new financial year. Three month CDs was quoted at
8.50%-8.55% while three month CPs was quoted at 9.25%-9.35%. IOC placed
INR 7bn of June maturity CP at 7.91% while HPCL placed INR 8bn of June CP at
7.97%. NHB raised INR 9bn through issuance of June CP at 8%.
Money markets
 The central bank, for the first time since May-10, drained surplus of INR 425bn
through the reverse repo window. However this doesn’t reflect the correct liquidity
in the system. Banks have maintained an excess of 11% over the required CRR
(until 1st April) indicating the skewed borrowing towards the end of the last
financial year. The liquidity is likely to remain in the negative INR650bn-INR700bn
in the next fortnight once GoI kicks off its weekly auctions

India Note - Keynote Capitals (April-6-'11)

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Views on markets today
·      Indian markets ended choppy trade in flat to negative note yesterday on profit-booking as high crude oil prices raised investor concerns about inflation and hike in interest rates, amid weak markets globally. Sharp rise in crude oil prices has been a concern as investors fear rising commodity prices could erode corporate profit margins. However, the markets bounced back from day's low in the last hour of trade and ended on a flat note. The broad market depicted strength as a number of small-cap and mid-cap stocks extended recent gains. The downward movement was mainly led by selling pressure in oil & gas, FMCG and banks stocks while consumer durable, metal, real estate and IT stocks witnessed some buying activities which led the market to recover in the last hour of trade. Sesa Goa gained 6.5% after India's top court overturned a ban on iron ore shipments from Karnataka state that accounts for about a quarter of the country's ore exports.
·      Market breadth was strong at ~2.11x as investors bought small and mid cap stocks. FIIs bought equities worth `7.23bn while domestic institutions sold equities of `5.28bn.
·      Asian markets were mixed today after lackluster US markets overnight. Japanese stocks fall led by the banks as Japan's nuclear crisis remained unresolved, and ahead of a policy announcement from the Bank of Japan on Thursday. The Hang Seng is up after a weak opening with gains in the insurance stocks.
·      We expect a flat but negative biased opening for the Indian markets as the Asian markets are directionless. Worries regarding 2G scam may keep telecom stocks under scanner. L&T may see a good momentum as it has achieved the financial closure for the `16375Cr Hyderabad Metro Rail Project.
Economic and Corporate Developments
·      The seasonally adjusted HSBC Markit Business Activity index, based on a survey of over 450 companies, fell to 58.8 in March from February's 60.2.
·      As per ADB’s Outlook 2011, ndia's economy will remain robust over the next two years although growth is expected to moderate in FY2011 as slower external demand and tighter fiscal and monetary policies weigh on expansion, and as high oil prices remain a threat.

Buzzing Stocks - Keynote Capitals (April-6-'11)

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Buzzing Stocks
·      L&T Metro Rail Hyderabad, the SPV of L&T, announced the financial closure of the `163.8bn Hyderabad metro rail project.
·      Government approval to the $9.6bn Cairn-Vedanta deal, expected on Wednesday, will be subject to Vedanta passing the home ministry’s security scanner.
·      Sesa Goa has got the approval from SEBI to make an open offer to buy an additional 20% stake from shareholders as per Indian takeover regulations.
·      DLF has decided to develop its `10bn Infopark project spread over 54 acres in the Bhubaneshwar in phases.
·      Satyam Computer and PWC agreed to pay a combined US$17.5mn to settle investigations into an accounting fraud.
·      Voltas has increased its stake to 60% in Lalvol, a JV between the voltas and Oman-based Lalbuksh Contracting and Trading Establishment.
·      Jyothy Labs has emerged the sole bidder for acquiring a majority stake in Henkel India from its German parent.

Persistent Systems: If no scale, go for niche 􀂃BNP Paribas

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Persistent Systems- If no scale, go for niche
􀂃 Recent management interaction suggests demand stays strong
􀂃 Infospectrum buy-out in line with company's long-term roadmap
􀂃 Revising estimates to factor in mid-term wage hike announced in 3Q
􀂃 We see the stock as a key long-term portfolio addition; retain BUY
Growth momentum stays strong
We reiterate BUY on Persistent Systems
after our recent management discussions.
We believe FY11 is likely to close at the
upper end of the company’s USD revenue
guidance of USD167m-170m. Momentum
in Persistent’s four focus areas (cloud,
mobility, collaboration and analytics)
remains strong with the company on track
to increase its revenue contribution to
close to 45% (from ~40% now) by FY12E.
With healthy demand continuing in the
outsourced product development market,
we see our ~30% FY12 USD revenue
growth estimate as being achievable, and
expect the company to conservatively guide for 26-29% growth in April.
Recent acquisition in line with long-term roadmap
We believe Persistent’s recent acquisition of Infospectrum (for USD6m)
fits with its roadmap to achieve USD500m in revenue, the key aspects of
which remain: 1) expanded offerings, 2) better client management, 3)
efficient HR strategy, and 4) niche acquisitions in select verticals and in
the four focus areas. Infospectrum’s focus on maritime, industrial
automation, aerospace and defense verticals would expand Persistent’s
footprint. We understand the integration process has been completed
and revenue contribution from Infospectrum has started.
Mid-term wage hike drives our earnings cuts
We revise our estimates to factor in the 3Q results and the company’s
announcement of a mid-term wage hike of ~10% in 4Q to counter
attrition. Thus, we lower our FY12-13 EBIT margin estimates 130-
140bps, leading to 5-6% EPS cuts. But our view of Persistent as a growth
stock stays unchanged given we are still looking for FY11-13 revenue
and PBT CAGR of 26% and 28% respectively. We expect EPS growth to
resume in FY13 once higher tax rates are factored in for FY12.
BUY: If no scale, go for niche
At a time when mid-cap IT services business models are coming into
question and leading to weak valuations, we see Persistent as one that
stands out because of its unique business. We see the stock as a
leveraged play on the structural shifts that the software industry is
undergoing (i.e., cloud computing, etc), and thus as a key long-term
portfolio addition. We trim our DCF-based TP to INR510.00 (from
INR530) to reflect the earnings revision. Our TP implies an FY13E P/E of
11.9x, in line with the current 12-m forward multiple. Risks: macro and FX
uncertainty, and continued wage pressure.


The Risk Experts
• Our starting point for this page is a recognition of the
macro factors that can have a significant impact on stockprice
performance, sometimes independently of bottom-up
factors.
• With our Risk Expert page, we identify the key macro risks
that can impact stock performance.
• This analysis enhances the fundamental work laid out in
the rest of this report, giving investors yet another resource
to use in their decision-making process.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 06-Apr-2011

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 06-Apr-2011 
 BUYSELLOPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY 
 No. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in Crores 
INDEX FUTURES493441460.42533631577.7458580517311.65-117.33
INDEX OPTIONS1834185317.301613774729.34143818642153.08587.96
STOCK FUTURES470911281.01571241586.02116176130809.20-305.01
STOCK OPTIONS9043259.779563274.5516495461.08-14.77
      Total150.85
 
 

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FII & DII trading activity on NSE and BSE as on 06-Apr-2011

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FII trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment
The following is combined FII trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by FIIs on 06-Apr-2011.
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII06-Apr-20112856.442327.97528.47
 
Domestic Institutional Investors trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment
The following is combined Domestic Institutional Investors trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by Banks, DFIs, Insurance, MFs and New Pension System on 06-Apr-2011.
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
DII06-Apr-20111118.811649.86-531.05
 


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Sesa Goa… the tough get going § BNP Paribas

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… the tough get going
§ Karnataka export ban removal provides visibility on FY12 volumes
§ Cairn-Vedanta deal – One step closer to closure
§ Rising Indian exports to add to pressure on iron ore prices
§ Weak iron ore outlook counter-balanced by strong oil prices
Karnataka export ban removed

UBS:: India Market Strategy- Analyzing Earnings momentum/Laggards

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UBS Investment Research
India Market Strategy
Analyzing Earnings momentum/Laggards
􀂄 Earnings momentum turns negative, likely priced in
Consensus FY12 earnings estimate for Nifty has been revised down by 1.1% in the
4QFY11 vs. upward revision of 1.9% in 3QFY11. The downward revision has
been more prominent post the 3QFY11 results which were disappointing. We
believe that the market seems to have priced in the negative earnings momentum as
the Nifty has rallied 8.7% since bottoming out on 21 Mar’11, at a level of 5,365.
􀂄 Auto, IT services +ve; Financials, Telecom, Infra, Materials -ve
Tata Motors led the earnings upgrade in Autos whereas TCS saw the largest
earnings revision in IT services. Downward revisions were seen across the board in
financials as analysts factor in tighter liquidity. RCOM led the earnings revisions
in Telcos. Materials sector downward revision was driven by Sesa Goa & SAIL.
Slow order inflows led to downward earnings revisions in JP Associates and L&T
􀂄 Identifying opportunities through earnings momentum / BSE 100 laggards
We recommend the following stocks which have (1) positive earnings momentum
(2) have been laggards and also (3) UBS analysts have good level of conviction in
their Buy ratings- Ranbaxy, BHEL and IBREL. We remain positive on Indian
stocks in the medium term with a March 2012 Sensex & Nifty targets of 22,500 &
6,800 respectively. We believe attractive demographics coupled with a stable
government that is open to reforms provides India with an excellent opportunity to
grow the economy and corporate earnings in the next 10-20 years. Key catalyst to
watch out for: 1) progress on reforms post the state elections 2) 4QFY11 earnings
reports 3) crude oil prices 4) 2011 monsoon season.

RBS, 6 Apr 2011. News Update

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News headlines
Oil & Gas
􀀟 Government nod for Cairn-Vedanta deal may come with rider (Economic Times)
􀀟 Sebi approves open offer for Cairn India: Vedanta Resources (Economic Times)
􀀟 US invites India for international meet on off shore drilling (Economic Times)
Banks
􀀟 Monetary policy: Bankers urge RBI not to hike repo and reverse repo rates (Economic Times)
􀀟 RBI penalises two Gujarat-based co-op banks (Economic Times)
Pharma
􀀟 Lupin files second suit against Ranbaxy (Economic Times)
􀀟 NPPA rejects increased price of imported medicines; Eli Lilly moves court (Economic Times)
Commodity
􀀟 'Lifting of iron ore export ban not to change things much' (Economic Times)
􀀟 Government likely to clear Cairn-Vedanta deal tomorrow: Sources (Economic Times)
􀀟 NMDC says overseas acquisitions won't top $500m this year (Economic Times)
􀀟 Karnataka iron ore export ban set to go (Business Standard)
􀀟 Kalyani Gerdau to expand Tadipatri steel plant (Business Standard)
Consumer
􀀟 Jyothy sole bidder for Henkel stake (Economic Times)
􀀟 CavinKare looking at private placements: Chinni Krishnan Ranganathan (Economic Times)
Retail/ Real Estate
􀀟 German firm sells plot to real estate company for Rs13bn (Economic Times)
􀀟 DLF to set up Infopark project in phases (Business Standard)
IT & Telecom
􀀟 Homegrown mobile companies to raise $1bn through PE funds (Economic Times)
􀀟 Sistema Shyam gets DoT notices for failing to roll out services (Economic Times)
􀀟 Draft policy on mobile governance released (Economic Times)
􀀟 Bharti has reached 2mn 3G customers in India (Economic Times)
􀀟 Market uncertainty may impact moving forward in India: Etisalat (Economic Times)
􀀟 Vodafone appeals against tax department notice (Economic Times)
Power, engineering & infrastructure
􀀟 CESC looks for partners to pick stake in Nigerian power firms (Economic Times)
􀀟 28,000MW power to go on stream this fiscal (Economic Times)
􀀟 Godawari Power's subsidiary to acquire power plant (Economic Times)
􀀟 BHEL applied for 1 patent every working day in FY-11 (Economic Times)
􀀟 UPPCL enters agreement with HP government for 600MW power supply (Economic Times)
􀀟 TVS group plans to foray into low-cost housing (Economic Times)
􀀟 Larsen & Toubro ties up financial closure for metro project (Economic Times)
􀀟 Zoom debt recast fails, recovery to start (Business Standard)
􀀟 BHEL Tiruchi to focus on super critical boilers (Business Standard)
Automobiles
􀀟 Maruti Suzuki hikes car prices by up to Rs9,000 (Economic Times)
􀀟 Honda completes exit from Hero Honda (Business Standard)
􀀟 After Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki also increases car prices (Business Standard)

Metals & Mining – 4QFY11 quarterly preview :: RBS

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Steel companies should see margin expansion in 4QFY11F with prices hiked at the turn of
the new year. But, this will be temporary as higher coking coal prices flow through in 1Q and
2QFY12. Non-ferrous companies should post robust earnings as they continue to ride the
strength of underlying commodity prices.

Poonam SNEAK PEEK::: stripping to her bikini ....

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CENSORED


Poonam SNEAK PEEK::: stripping to her bikini .... to celebrate India World Cup victory












06-Apr-2011 , NSE, Bulk deals,

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Symbol
Security Name
Client Name
Buy / Sell
Quantity Traded
Wght. Avg. 
Price
AGRE
Agre Developers Ltd
JANUS CONTRARIAN FUND
SELL
98,470
53.09
AGRE
Agre Developers Ltd
KARAN G MEHTA
BUY
91,000
53.01
APPAPER
Andhra Pradesh Paper
MARYADA BARTER PVT LTD
BUY
2,25,000
397.50
ARSSINFRA
ARSS Infra Proj. Ltd
CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.
BUY
1,00,434
624.29
ARSSINFRA
ARSS Infra Proj. Ltd
CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.
SELL
1,00,434
620.87
BFUTILITIE
BF Utilities Limited
CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.
BUY
2,26,835
850.61
BFUTILITIE
BF Utilities Limited
CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.
SELL
2,26,835
851.58
CORAL-HUB
Coral Hub Limited
IFCI LTD.
SELL
1,28,373
8.34