Angel Broking:: Mahindra Satyam – 3QFY2011 Result Update

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Mahindra Satyam reported its 3QFY2011 numbers, which exceeded the market’s
expectations. Revenue grew by 4.4% qoq to US $284mn (onsite: 41% and
offshore: 59%) from US $272mn in 2QFY2011 on the back of 2.5% qoq volume
growth and due to onsite effort shift with pricing being stable. In rupee terms,
revenue increased by 3.0% qoq to `1,279cr from `1,242cr in 2QFY2011. The
company recorded a significant 249bp qoq improvement in gross margin to
29.0% from 26.5% in 2QFY2011. EBITDA margin increased by 49bp to 6.4%
from 5.9% in 2QFY2011. Margin enhancement came on the back of absorption
of wage hike impact (given in 2QFY2011 of 3% to onsite employees and 15% to
offshore employees) and a significant improvement in utilisation level to 73.5%
from 71% in 2QFY2011. Net profit (excluding exceptional item) came in at
`112cr, reporting growth of 254% qoq on the back of huge other income of
`87cr in 3QFY2011 (`31cr in 2QFY2011), which includes a) forex gain of
`13.4cr, b) profit from sale of a mutual fund investment and c) interest on fixed
deposit. The company generated sizeable cash, taking its cash and cash
equivalent to `3,048cr from `2,996cr in 2QFY2011. Currently, debt in the books
of the company stands at `31cr. Also, the company has got hedges worth
US $386mn with strike rate of `46.9 spanning across the next 24 months.

HSBC:: Unitech --Risk-reward ratio favourable- Upgrade to OW; target INR50

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Unitech Ltd (UT IN)
Upgrade to OW(V): Risk-reward ratio now favourable
􀀗 Q3 was a mixed bag: While earnings were c40% below HSBC
and street est., debt reduced reflecting improved cash flows
􀀗 Stock has corrected c37% over the past month and is now
trading at 0.7x FY12e PB, close to past cycle bottom
􀀗 Valuation now offers comfort. Upgrade to OW(V) with target
price of INR50 (unchanged)

Q3FY11 Results Update -Allied Digital Services; Buy- Target Rs200:: Sushil

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Drop in Solutions Revenues, One‐time Provisioning lead to Disappointing Results
During Q3FY11, Allied Digital Services Ltd. (ADSL) has delivered disappointing results with its
Consolidated Revenues registering a drop of 10.8% QoQ & 2.9% YoY. The QoQ drop in
Revenues can be attributed to a sharp 20.6% QoQ decline in its solution business Revenues
to Rs. 700 mn along with lower than expected Revenues from its IMS business, especially
from Enpointe Global Services (EPGS), which delivered USD 10.1 mn revenues in Q3FY11
against USD 10.8 mn in Q2FY11. Its consolidated EBITDA declined 35.1% QoQ & 24.7% YoY to
Rs. 268.7 mn, while its EBITDA margins fell by 570 bps QoQ to 15.5%. The sharp drop in
margins was mainly due to one‐time provisioning of Rs.75.3 mn for doubtful debts. Hence, its
consolidated APAT declined by 30.6% QoQ & 24.1% YoY to Rs. 206.3 mn.

Apollo Tyres Ltd -- 3Q FY11 Results-- Asit C Mehta

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Apollo Tyres Ltd
3Q FY11 Results
Apollo Tyres (ATL) reported better than expected numbers for Q3 FY11.In Q3
FY11,ATL’s revenue increased 3.2% on Y-o-Y basis to `23,687.1 million. Operating
profit margins dipped 510 bps on Y-o-Y basis to 11.5% .Net profits declined 35.6%
on Y-o-Y basis to ` 1207.5 million.

Citi research: Adani Enterprises – Target Price Cut to Rs661

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Adani Enterprises (ADEL.BO)
Maintain Hold (2L) – Target Price Cut to Rs661
 3QFY11 PAT up 54% YoY, but well below CIRA expectations — ADE's 3QFY11
Recurring PAT at Rs4.74bn was up 54% YoY but below CIRA expectation of
Rs7bn on account of higher than expected interest costs and lower than expected
other income. The other key reasons for the operational variance were lower than
expected numbers in Adani Power because of (a) lower quantum of merchant
sales and (b) lower than expected merchant prices.

Citi:: Tata Power-- Not Too Much Growth In 9MFY11

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Tata Power (TTPW.BO)
Not Too Much Growth In 9MFY11
 3QFY11 Recurring PAT flat YoY — Tata Power’s 3QFY11 Recurring PAT at
Rs4.1bn was flat YoY as the 49% YoY growth in coal SPVs EBIT was muted by (1)
16% YoY decline in parent EBIT on limited sales growth and 34% YoY decline in
merchant prices; (2) a weak quarter for subsidiaries NDPL, Powerlinks and Tata
Power Trading; and (3) higher effective tax rates in the quarter.

Buy Kesoram Industries – 3QFY2011 Result Update -Angel Broking

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Kesoram Industries – 3QFY2011 Result Update

Angel Broking maintains a Buy on Kesoram Industries with a Target Price of Rs. 315.

For 3QFY2011, Kesoram Industries (Kesoram) posted net loss of `15cr, primarily
on account of poor operating performance of its tyre division, which suffered due
to a surge in rubber (a key raw material) prices (up 64% yoy). However, the
cement division posted an improved performance, reporting operating profit of
`62cr in 3QFY2011 as against loss of `27cr in 2QFY2011. Going ahead, the
performance of the cement division is expected to improve due to improving
demand scenario in the southern region, although the tyre division is expected to
face margin pressures due to high rubber prices. We maintain Buy on the stock.

Citi :: GSK Pharma:: No Surprises; Steady Growth Continues

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Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceutical (GLAX.BO)
Alert: No Surprises; Steady Growth Continues
 No surprises — GLAX continued to post steady numbers for the quarter (4Q
sales up 12%; recurring net income up 15%) and for the year (revenues up 13%,
PAT up 14%) in line with our estimates. The business remains on solid ground &
we expect steady growth rates to continue (new launches, sales force addition).
We however see limited scope for re-rating in the near term & maintain our Sell
(3L) rating with TP of Rs2,030.

Citi:: Pantaloon: Another Quarter – Another Disappointment…But Risks Priced In

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Pantaloon (PART.BO)
Another Quarter – Another Disappointment…But Risks Priced In
 SSS growth trends remain encouraging… — Retail demand continues to be
buoyant as same-store sales (SSS) growth for lifestyle, value and home remained
strong at ~21%, 12% and 18% Y/Y, respectively in 2QFY11. Encouragingly, trends
in the key lifestyle and value businesses were in line with 1Q trends. Overall, core
retail (lifestyle+ value + home) revenues rose a healthy 31% Y/Y (32% in 1Q).

Buy Apollo Tyres – 3QFY2011 Result Update -Angel Broking

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Apollo Tyres – 3QFY2011 Result Update

Angel Broking maintains a Buy on Apollo Tyres with a Target Price of Rs. 65.

Apollo Tyres reported better-than-expected results for 3QFY2011 led by healthy

qoq margins on account of efficiency in the raw material procurement policy.

However, top-line growth was impacted by weakness in the domestic replacement

demand for CV tyres. We revise our earnings estimates marginally upwards to

factor in the better-than-expected numbers. We maintain a Buy on the stock.

Accumulate Simplex Infrastructures – 3QFY2011 Result Update -Angel Broking

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Simplex Infrastructures – 3QFY2011 Result Update

Angel Broking recommends an Accumulate on Simplex Infrastructures with a Target Price of Rs. 378.

For 3QFY2011, Simplex Infra (SI) posted lacklustre and lower-than-expected
performance on a standalone basis. At the end of the quarter, SI’s order book
(OB) stood at `13,912cr (2.9x FY2011E revenues). Order inflow of `2,128cr
(including captive orders of `500cr). The company is facing slowdown on the
international front (cancellation of Libyan orders worth `590cr in 2QFY2011)
and is venturing into newer geographies leading to stretched working capital and
higher interest cost. We revise our estimates and target multiple downwards to
reflect the weak results. Hence, we downgrade the stock to Accumulate from Buy.

Accumulate Hindalco – 3QFY2011 Result Update -Angel Broking

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Hindalco – 3QFY2011 Result Update

Angel Broking maintains an Accumulate on Hindalco with a Target Price of Rs. 243.

For 3QFY2011, Hindalco’s consolidated net revenue was below our estimates
due to lower-than-expected sales volumes and higher-than-expected costs.
Lower volumes and higher costs: Hindalco’s standalone net revenue grew by
12.0% yoy and 2.0% qoq to `5,918cr due to higher realisation despite lower
sales volumes. During the quarter, a) production at Hirakud continued to be
lower by 4.4% yoy (up 10.1 qoq) to 136kt, b) alumina production fell by 5.8% yoy
and 7.7% qoq to 320kt due to maintenance shutdown and c) the breakdown at
Dahej resulted in lower copper production to 80kt (down 10.0% yoy, 14.7% qoq).

Coal India - sluggish volumes; uncertainty on pricing; company update; Edelweiss

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Coal India (COAL IN, INR 305, Hold)

Reiterated volume issues; cuts FY11 volume to 427 mt from 431 mt

Coal India (CIL) management reiterated CEPI and logistics related issues being the cause of cut in volume estimates to 431 mt from 465 mt in FY11 and to 447 mt from 485 mt in FY12. FY11 volume is likely to be further lower at 427-428 mt since Q4FY11 has seen no Y-o-Y growth in rakes availability.

Goldman Sachs: Prestige Estates (Neutral): Balanced risk-reward

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Prestige Estates (PREG.BO; Neutral): Balanced risk-reward
Investment view
We initiate coverage on Prestige Estates with a Neutral rating and 12-m
target price of Rs169. Prestige is a South India based developer with an
established presence across various business verticals including
residential, retail, commercial and hospitality projects. In our view, while
the key revenue drivers appear robust, we believe the significant scaleup
in execution needed could be a challenge leading to delays and
increased costs.

Goldman Sachs: Phoenix Mills (Sell): Year of consolidation

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Phoenix Mills (PHOE.BO; Sell): Year of consolidation
Investment view
We initiate on Phoenix Mills (PML) with a Sell rating. We believe that
CY2011 is the year of consolidation for the company with leasing and
completion risks.
Market cities ex HSP, Mumbai (31% of NAV). These ‘market cities’
will likely face delays especially in an environment where tight liquidity
will affect expansion plans of retailers. These four market cities
comprise 4.3 mn sqft with attributable area of 1.4 mn sqft. The four
market cities are likely to commence operations in CY2011, but stable
operations are likely only by mid-CY2012.

Goldman Sachs: Godrej Properties Limited -Sell: Expensive valuations

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Godrej Properties Limited (GODR.BO; Sell): Expensive valuations
Investment view
We initiate coverage on Godrej Properties with a Sell rating and 12-m
target price of Rs527 (set at par with our FY12E RNAV). We believe the
stock appears expensive on all valuation parameters:
 GPL is trading at a 14% premium to our FY12E- based NAV of Rs527,
which we believe is unjustified.

Goldman Sachs:: Jaypee Infratech: Execution vs OCF yield

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Jaypee Infratech (JYPE.BO; Neutral): Execution vs OCF yield
Investment view
We initiate coverage on Jaypee Infratech (JIL) with a Neutral rating and
a 12-month target price of Rs78.
In our view, the following key revenue drivers appear robust:
 Large pre-sales. Has sold 31 mn sqft of residential real estate with
cumulative value of Rs96 bn over past six quarters. This provides good
visibility on residential revenue booking, which we estimate at Rs118
bn over FY10-FY13E. We like JIL’s volume-driven strategy, but it also
entails significant ramp-up in execution capability and we believe
delays could affect marketability of future residential launches.

Goldman Sachs: Buy HDIL: High earnings visibility, compelling value

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HDIL (HDIL.BO; Buy): High earnings visibility, compelling value
Investment view
We maintain our Buy rating on HDIL, but lower our 12-month FY12E
RNAV-based target price to Rs211 from Rs309 due to a higher discount
for the MIAL project and pushing back our TDR sales assumptions. We
also reduce our FY11E-FY13E EPS by 8%-14% on the back of lower
pricing assumptions in Mumbai.

Goldman Sachs:: Oberoi Realty - Buy: Strong Bs—Brand, Balance-sheet

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Oberoi Realty (OEBO.BO; Buy): Strong Bs—Brand, Balance-sheet
Investment view
We initiate coverage on Oberoi Realty (ORL) with a Buy rating and 12-m
RNAV-based target price of Rs327. We see two key revenue drivers for
the company—its brand and balance-sheet.

Goldman Sachs:: Sobha Developers: Breaking out of its shell

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Sobha Developers (SOBH.BO; Buy, on CL): Breaking out of its shell
Investment view
We upgrade Sobha Developers to Buy from Neutral and add it to our
regional Conviction List with a revised 12-month RNAV-based TP of Rs331.
Our favourable view is driven by better launch visibility, improving ROEs,
our favourable view of the Bangalore market, and better disclosures
(Exhibit 13). In addition, we believe Sobha will benefit from the recent
recovery in the IT industry through additional demand created for
apartments as well as increased contracts for its contractual business.

Goldman Sachs:: Real Estate- Operating cash, disclosures; initiate 5 cos; Buy Sobha (CL)

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India: Real Estate
Equity Research
In focus: Operating cash, disclosures; initiate 5 cos; Buy Sobha (CL)
Operating cash and disclosures in focus, initiate on 5 stocks
We initiate on five companies—Oberoi Realty with Buy, Godrej Properties and
Phoenix Mills both with Sell, and Prestige Estates and Jaypee Infratech both
with Neutral. We base our stock selection on the ability of the companies to
generate operating cash, their level of quarterly disclosures, leverage ratios
and valuations. The real estate sector has been very volatile (beta >1.5) since
2007, and we think companies with better disclosures stand a better chance of
gaining investor attention, which could in turn lead to better valuations. We
see increased maturity in the sector over the past one year with improving
cash profiles and the listing of several companies (about US$1 bn market cap).

JP Morgan: Sterlite: Completes Anglo's zinc assets acquisition; $383MM in EBITDA in FY12

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Sterlite Industries Overweight; STRL.BO, STLT IN
Completes Anglo's zinc assets acquisition; $383MM in EBITDA in FY12



• Sterlite wraps up acquisition of all Anglo assets with completion of
Lisheen Mine acquisition: Sterlite acquired the Lisheen Mine in Ireland
from Anglo American for a total consideration of $546MM, which
includes ~$275MM cash available at Lisheen. The acquisition completes
the Anglo zinc assets purchase, which included Skorpion mine
(completed in Dec-10 for $707MM) and 74% of Black Mountain mine
(completed earlier this month for $348MM), for a total consideration of
$1.6bn ($1.326 excluding the cash available at Lisheen). This is part of
the proposed acquisition of Anglo's zinc assets acquisition announced in
May-10 for $1.338bn for 3 mines Skorpion (2009 prod of 150kt, 8.3Mt
reserves, Zn grade 11.3%, CoP$902/mt), Black Mountain + Gamsberg in
South Africa (Black Mountain- 2009 prod of 57kt, 189Mt reserves, Zn
grade of 1.5%, CoP$1237/mt) and Lisheen.

IIFL:: Allied Digital Services – BUY ‘Selling overdone’

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IT survey misconstrued as IT Raid; impact not material
An income tax team, as a part of its routine survey, had visited the
official premises of ADSL to check its books of accounts on concern of
expenditure manipulation. According to the management, this survey,
misconstrued as ‘raid’, concluded the same day with no prima facie
evidence and no documents seized. Company further re-assured of
minimal impact of the IT Survey on its financials.

JP Morgan: buy Sterlite Tech: Business set to recover following dismal 3Q, target Rs76

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Sterlite Technologies Ltd
Overweight; STTE.BO, SOTL IN
Business set to recover following dismal 3Q, revise TP to Rs76



• Revising Earnings and Price Target on the back of disappointing
3Q: We cut our FY11E-FY13E EPS by 33%-50% incorporating dismal
3Q results (70% below our estimates) and potentially weak 4Q. We are
factoring in a recovery in FY12E, but below the management guidance
range of Rs4B-Rs5B EBITDA for FY12E. We accordingly reduce our
Sep-11 PT to Rs76, based on 12x Sep-12E P/E.

CLSA: Buy Tata Steel- -3Q: Strong India; Weak Corus

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Tata Steel--3Q: Strong India; Weak Corus
Tata Steel’s 3Q consol recurring net profit at Rs10.2 bn was up 43% YoY and
in-line with estimates. Tata Steel India surprised positively with ASPs rising
6% QoQ and driving a 7% EBITDA beat. Corus’ results were expectedly weak
with EBITDA (60% of which was carbon credit sales) dropping 55% QoQ.
Tata Steel will see margins expand in both India and Corus over the next two
quarters as steel prices have risen across regions ahead of the cost push. Post
3Q results, we see some upside to our India profit forecasts. Maintain BUY.

CLSA - Buy Max India -Protecting profitability

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Max India -Protecting profitability
During 3QFY11, Max India reported standalone loss of Rs69m, but turned
profitable on consolidated basis led by life insurance business. With new
norms on Ulips laying caps on charges, management has shifted focus
from premium growth to profitability. It is taking steps to lower costs and
improve productivity, but this will lead to modest premium growth. In
spite of these measures, NBAP margins will decline to 12-14% (from
20% in FY10) and corroborate our view that smaller players will see
greater impact on NBAP margins, than those with economies of scale. We
value insurance business at 12x NBAP. With target price of Rs190; BUY.

JP Morgan: Reliance Power::Fuel constraints impact profits, Maintain UW.

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Reliance Power Underweight; RPOL.BO, RPWR IN
Fuel constraints impact profits, an improvement in availability is in the price, Maintain UW.



• 3Q results impacted by weak plant load factor and lower other
income: Rosa (600MW), RPWR’s lone operating project, reported a low
PLF of 53%, as expected, due to severe fuel constraints. The
management attributed lower than expected other income to low cash
yield. On the whole, reported PAT of Rs1.4B was lower than JPM est.
Rs1.7B (consensus Rs1.9B), despite deferred tax credit of Rs0.5B.
Under-recovery of fixed cost impacted Rosa numbers. At 53%, Rosa’s
PLF staged QoQ improvement from 40% in 2Q. We assume a 75%
sustainable PLF FY12 onwards. Our FY11 earnings estimate is revised
down 27% to factor in under-recovery of plant and corporate overheads.

Credit Suisse:: India Property -Book value scanner: Are stocks really trading that cheap?

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India Property Sector------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Book value scanner: Are stocks really trading that cheap?



● Property stocks might appear cheap at current valuations given
the argument that book values do not reflect the current market
price of the land, however, we believe that when seen on adjusted
price-to-book valuation, these stocks are no longer that attractive.
● Book values of developers are overstated owing to certain items
such as capitalised interest which have continued to accumulate
on the balance sheet. In some cases, assets/investments are
recorded at higher than fair values which should be adjusted.
● DLF and HDIL’s book values decline by 40% and 36%,
respectively, post these adjustments. On an average, adjusted
book value for developers under our coverage stands lower by
23% compared to their nominal values.
● On an adjusted basis, DLF is still trading at 2.6x FY11E P/B with
ROE of 7%, which implies the market is factoring that the market
value of DLF’s land as of Mar-11 should grow to 2.5x its recorded
cost, which is highly unlikely given that majority of its land was
acquired between FY07 and FY09. DLF remains our top
UNDERPERFORM.

JP Morgan: Buy GMR:: Cash flow tunaround intact, clarity on airport regulations a potential stock catalyst

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GMR Infrastructure Ltd Overweight
GMRI.BO, GMRI IN
Cash flow tunaround intact, clarity on airport regulations a potential stock catalyst


• GMRI reported strong operating results, with strong growth in air
traffic and non-aero revenues. Reported net loss, at Rs225M, was lower
than our estimated loss of Rs760M, mainly due to a deferred tax write-back
of Rs0.7B at Hyderabad Airport. The loss is on account of high interest and
depreciation charges at airports and would reduce with better capacity
utilization / higher aero charges and real estate monetization if any. Power
segment operating results were weak, as expected, due to a reduction in KG
Basin gas availability.

JP Morgan: India Property:: 3Q results review - Who won who lost? Numbers in brief

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India Property:: 3Q results review - Who won who lost? Numbers in brief



• 3Q results– Mumbai developers outperform; while Bangalore/NCR
players deliver mixed set of results - 3Q results were fairly decent for
the Indian property sector with the exception of Unitech/Prestige (30-
40% miss). Mumbai-based developers (IBREL/OBER/HDIL) were clear
outperformers beating expectations by 15-30%. While DLF missed the
consensus PAT estimates, operational results were largely in line. 3Q
earnings for Bangalore developers were however mixed (Sobha– in line;
Brigade- positive, Prestige–below expectations).

FII & DII trading activity on NSE and BSE as on 17-Feb-2011

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FII trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment

The following is combined FII trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by FIIs on 17-Feb-2011.

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 17-Feb-2011 2305.25 2267.26 37.99

Domestic Institutional Investors trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment

The following is combined Domestic Institutional Investors trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by Banks, DFIs, Insurance, MFs and New Pension System on 17-Feb-2011.

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 17-Feb-2011 1153.73 909.33 244.4

 

 

 

-- 

Credit Suisse,:: India Capital Goods - Environmental approvals gaining traction

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India Capital Goods Sector----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Environmental approvals gaining traction


● Investors, over the past few months, have been concerned on the
delay in approval of several projects, on account of issues with
environmental approvals. We, however, note that positive news
flow on the approvals front has been gaining ground with MoEF
(Environment ministry) recently approving several large projects.
● Notable projects approved include, Posco’s Rs500 bn steel
project in Orissa, JSPL’s Rs250 bn integrated steel project in
Orissa, Bedabahal UMPP in Orissa worth Rs200 bn, 16 projects
of Coal India (CEPI score eased to 75 from 70), SAIL’s mining of
iron ore in Chiria mines, Areva’s 10GW nuclear project in
Maharashtra and Rs90bn worth Mumbai Airport project. We
understand that several more projects are under review for
approvals.
● The read from the approval of these large projects is that
directionally policy is taking a more favourable view on investment
projects given the impact of delays on economy. From a sectoral
perspective, we acknowledge this positive trend, and believe that
if these bottlenecks (including Land) are eased further, the sector
derating (from 23x to 17x) over the past quarter could reverse.
● While investors may still wait for the actual order momentum to
improve, we believe that these trends atleast ensure that the
visibility on pool of orders up for bid over the next 12M increases,
and help support the current valuations for the sector.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 17-Feb-2011

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 17-Feb-2011
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	84444	2334.41	63926	1762.96	590124	16372.02	571.45
INDEX OPTIONS	211938	5738.43	192794	5275.80	2111196	58548.71	462.63
STOCK FUTURES	120534	3061.15	108422	2719.01	1220003	30729.36	342.15
STOCK OPTIONS	15336	410.13	14563	388.97	25256	684.92	21.16
						Total	1397.40

 

-- 

BSE, Bulk deals, 17/2/2011

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Scrip Code	Company	Client Name	Deal Type *	Quantity	Price **
533163	Arss Infra Proj	H P SHARE SHOPPE	B	87861	688.96
533163	Arss Infra Proj	CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED	B	129895	677.20
533163	Arss Infra Proj	A K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTD	B	82632	688.23
533163	Arss Infra Proj	H P SHARE SHOPPE	S	87861	689.18
533163	Arss Infra Proj	CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED	S	129861	677.46
533163	Arss Infra Proj	A K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTD	S	82632	688.42
530245	Aryaman Fin	PRUDENTIAL STOCK AND SECURITIES LIMITED	B	107500	23.10
531733	Bafna Spinning	MANJULABEN MAHESHCHANDRA SHAH	S	306309	1.54
531591	Bampsl Sec	KAUSHALAYA GARG	B	653680	3.35