10 February 2011

UBS: India Market Strategy - Budget: Tug of war Inflation vs. Growth: TOP PICKS

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UBS Investment Research
India Market Strategy
Budget: Tug of war Inflation vs. Growth
�� Reforms, Fiscal Deficit, NREGA allocation remain key focus
While we believe it is a challenge to forecast what the Indian FY12 budget has in
store, we have made an attempt to look at some of the key issues in this note. (1)
Given the state elections, we expect NREGA allocations to pick up in addition to
the recent increase in NREGA wage rates (2) Fiscal deficit number is likely to be
closely watched given the rising oil prices, absence of one-time revenues such as
3G, WiMax license fees. (3) Investors perceive that reforms have slowed in the
past 12 months and the budget may address this issue.

BNP Paribas: What to SELL despite the decline

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What to SELL despite the decline
􀂃 Investors need to SELL stocks to BUY into the correction
􀂃 "Administrative" suppression of commodity prices potential risk
􀂃 Companies without pricing power could face disproportionate margin pressures
􀂃 Pure “sector beneficiaries” could be at risk
Sell after a sharp correction? Isn’t it too late?

UBS: India Mobile Sector - TRAI recommendations finally…

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UBS Investment Research
India Mobile Sector
TRAI recommendations finally…
􀂄 Spectrum up to 6.2MHz at 53% of 3G price; Beyond 6.2MHz-136% of 3G
TRAI today submitted its recommendations on pricing of 2G spectrum. TRAI has
suggested service area wise two different levels of pricing for 1800MHz spectrum
– upto 6.2MHz and beyond 6.2MHz. For spectrum up to 6.2MHz, TRAI price is
53% of the pan-India 3G spectrum price while for spectrum beyond 6.2MHz TRAI
price is 136% of pan-India 3G spectrum price. TRAI has also recommended that
operators be charged prorated for the remaining license period beginning 1 Apr’10.
Further TRAI has suggested to use auction based 2G prices once there is sufficient
spectrum available for conducting auction.

UBS: United Spirits - Solid underlying operations, Buy; target of Rs1,550

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UBS Investment Research
United Spirits Ltd
Solid underlying operations, Buy

�� Underlying numbers on track
Net of acquisitions of Balaji, USL’s volumes were +14% and revenues +18.2%.
COGS were higher than expected at 57% of sales (adj. for Balaji) UBS-e 53.3% as
1. Volumes were higher than budget, procurement costs were higher on spot, 2.
Glass prices were higher, benchmarked to crude and 3. Benefits from asset buys
haven’t flowed in. Net of Rs 12mn EBITDA from Balaji, USL's EBITDA margins
came in at 17% (in line) as BTL expenses were lower. PBT (noe) came in at
Rs1560mn and PAT (noe) came in at Rs910mn.

FII & DII trading activity on NSE and BSE as on 10-Feb-2011

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FII trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment
The following is combined FII trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by FIIs on 10-Feb-2011.
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII10-Feb-20113032.293987.16-954.87

 
 
Domestic Institutional Investors trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment
The following is combined Domestic Institutional Investors trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by Banks, DFIs, Insurance, MFs and New Pension System on 10-Feb-2011.
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
DII10-Feb-20111660.731023.43637.3
 

-- 

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 10-Feb-2011

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 10-Feb-2011 
 BUYSELLOPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY 
 No. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in Crores 
INDEX FUTURES1026892688.301323393468.0454888314322.62-779.74
INDEX OPTIONS3407258933.3339166810306.24196307451287.10-1372.91
STOCK FUTURES1009012252.42979402357.31120709528069.12-104.89
STOCK OPTIONS26225674.1726297676.0521304548.59-1.88
      Total-2259.43

 
 

BSE, Bulk deals, 10/2/2011

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Scrip Code
Company
Client Name
Deal Type *
Quantity
Price **
532875
Allied Digit
MANSI SHARE & STOCK ADVISORS PRIVATE LIMITED
B
356565
74.66
532875
Allied Digit
JMP SECURITIES PVT LTD
B
288298
75.15
532875
Allied Digit
MANSI SHARE & STOCK ADVISORS PRIVATE LIMITED
S
354955
75.27
532875
Allied Digit
T. ROWE PRICE INTERNATIONAL A/C NEW ASIA FUND
S
547383
74.90
533229
Bajaj Corp
ACACIA INSTITUTIONAL PARTNERS
B
171207
379.68
531420
BMB Music
VINAY JAIN
B
33000
14.95
509499
Centron Indl
REETA PARINDUBHAI BHAGAT
B
13900
17.21

NSE, Bulk deals, 10-Feb-2011

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Symbol
Security Name
Client Name
Buy / Sell
Quantity Traded
Wght. Avg. 
Price
ADSL
Allied Digital Services L
JMP SECURITIES PVT LTD
BUY
2,26,413
74.73
ADSL
Allied Digital Services L
JMP SECURITIES PVT LTD
SELL
3,74,413
74.80
ADSL
Allied Digital Services L
T.ROWE PRICE INTERNATIONAL A/C NEW ASIA FUND
SELL
11,96,468
74.87
DCB
Development Credit Bank L
BLACKSTONE ASIA ADVISORS L.L.C. A/C THE INDIA FUND INC
SELL
11,46,650
39.63

Clients, NRI, Proprietary trading activity 2/10/2011

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(Rs. crore)
Clients
Trade Date
Buy
Sales
Net
10/2/2011
2,354.34
2,368.32
-13.98
9/2/2011
2,510.38
2,512.00
-1.62
8/2/2011
1,885.26
1,875.25
10.01
Feb , 11
17,715.81
18,276.01
-560.2
Since 1/1/11
63,997.78
64,425.93
-428.14
(Rs. crore)
NRI
Trade Date
Buy
Sales
Net
10/2/2011
1.10
0.40
0.7
9/2/2011
1.10
0.48
0.62
40757
1.16
0.33
0.83
Feb , 11
9.56
4.71
4.85
Since 1/1/11
35.33
31.58
3.75
(Rs. crore)
Proprietary
Trade Date
Buy
Sales
Net
10/2/2011
821.99
837.17
-15.18
9/2/2011
828.41
852.12
-23.72
40757
520.26
554.84
-34.58
Feb , 11
5,503.15
5,625.83
-122.68
Since 1/1/11
18,995.94
19,301.54
-305.60