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Weekly US oil data
Seasonally weak, but will it worsen?
The DoE weekly oil report was again quite bearish. Crude inventories grew,
products‟ stocks dropped only modestly, and demand retreated in nearly all
categories. With refinery runs at low levels, we would expect a more significant
product draw. Imports remain a key number to watch; levels (4wk MA) need to
remain stable. We view any material increase as a downside risk for prices. (As a
comparison, current run levels are 2% higher than in 2010, while imports are up 5%).
January is historically the seasonally-weakest period in the fundamentals complex.
Demand is never particularly strong, and stocks tend to build higher. For the
moment, we remain in line with seasonal trends, but this could change in either
direction very quickly. If fundamentals were to weaken further, it would call into
question our demand growth forecast for +1.9%y/y growth in January.
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Weekly US oil data
Seasonally weak, but will it worsen?
The DoE weekly oil report was again quite bearish. Crude inventories grew,
products‟ stocks dropped only modestly, and demand retreated in nearly all
categories. With refinery runs at low levels, we would expect a more significant
product draw. Imports remain a key number to watch; levels (4wk MA) need to
remain stable. We view any material increase as a downside risk for prices. (As a
comparison, current run levels are 2% higher than in 2010, while imports are up 5%).
January is historically the seasonally-weakest period in the fundamentals complex.
Demand is never particularly strong, and stocks tend to build higher. For the
moment, we remain in line with seasonal trends, but this could change in either
direction very quickly. If fundamentals were to weaken further, it would call into
question our demand growth forecast for +1.9%y/y growth in January.