28 January 2011

Weekly US oil data by Macquarie Research : Seasonally weak, but will it worsen?

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Weekly US oil data
Seasonally weak, but will it worsen?
The DoE weekly oil report was again quite bearish. Crude inventories grew,
products‟ stocks dropped only modestly, and demand retreated in nearly all
categories. With refinery runs at low levels, we would expect a more significant
product draw. Imports remain a key number to watch; levels (4wk MA) need to
remain stable. We view any material increase as a downside risk for prices. (As a
comparison, current run levels are 2% higher than in 2010, while imports are up 5%).
January is historically the seasonally-weakest period in the fundamentals complex.
Demand is never particularly strong, and stocks tend to build higher. For the
moment, we remain in line with seasonal trends, but this could change in either
direction very quickly. If fundamentals were to weaken further, it would call into
question our demand growth forecast for +1.9%y/y growth in January.

SpiceJet– 3QFY2011 Result Update- Angel Broking

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SpiceJet– 3QFY2011 Result Update

Angel Broking maintains a Neutral on SpiceJet.

SpiceJet reported strong 3QFY2011 numbers. Net sales grew by 29.3% yoy to
`830cr (`642cr). EBITDA margin came in at 13.7% (15.9%) and EBIDTA stood at
`114.0cr (`102cr), up by 11.5%, largely on account of increased passenger
traffic, which lead to higher top line. Consequently, the company reported net
profit growth of 833.8% qoq of `94cr; net profit, however, fell by 13.3% yoy.
We remain Neutral on the stock.

RBI Action: Brake on inflationary expectations becoming difficult... ICICI Securities

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Brake on inflationary expectations becoming difficult...
Key policy measures announced
• Repo and reverse repo rate under the LAF have been hiked by 25
bps each to 6.5% and 5.5%, respectively
• SLR leeway of 1% extended to April 8, 2011 from January 28,
2011 earlier
• Second LAF will be conducted on a daily basis till April 8, 2011
• Bank rate and CRR have been retained at 6.0%
• WPI inflation target has been raised to 7.0% from 5.5% earlier
• GDP growth projection has been maintained at 8.5%
• Credit and Deposit growth estimates kept intact at 20% & 18%
respectively for FY11

Bharat Forge -Export, non-auto traction drives growth… ICICI Sec

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Bharat Forge -Export, non-auto traction drives growth… 
Bharat Forge (BFL) reported positive numbers for Q3FY11 that were in
line with our estimates  as net sales grew to  | 754.2 crore (I-direct
estimate:  | 764.6 crore), up 52.1% YoY and 7.7% QoQ mainly due to
realisation improvement of 3.3% QoQ and 4.3% volume jump.
Consolidated revenues jumped to | 1235.3 crore, 50.2% YoY and 11.1%
QoQ growth with recovery in subsidiaries performance with global
improvements. BFL has successfully  countered rising costs through
complete pass through, which has led to margin maintenance at 24.3%.
On the subsidiaries front, the EBITDA margins have nearly doubled to
4.9% YoY. Standalone PAT performance was also strong at | 82.6 crore
(~207% YoY, 39% QoQ) due to the strong operative performance and
higher other income at | 12.6 crore (up 46.4% QoQ).

Shopper’s Stop: 3q fy2011 (dEC 2010) Quarter analysis: SPA

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Shopper’s Stop Ltd. (SSL), a pioneer in modern retailing in India, along with its subsidiary company Hypercity Retail
(India) and Crossword Bookstores, operates more than 33.28lacs sq ft in the country. Shoppers Stop is involved in
retailing through department stores, specialty stores, entertainment zones and large hypermarkets. The company has a
strong retail presence in 14 cities with 36 stores. Some of the key takeaways of the 3QFY11 results are as follows:

Reduce Sesa Goa: Lack of growth prospects ahead…ICICI Sec

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Lack of growth prospects ahead……. 
Sesa Goa’s Q3FY11 results came in below our estimates. Net sales grew
~19% YoY at | 2250 crore against our estimate of | 2385 crore. Sales
volumes have posted a robust growth of 181% QoQ whereas YoY it
grew 19% to 5.3 million tonnes (MT). EBITDA grew 263% QoQ and 19%
YoY to ~|  1233 crore, mainly on account of higher realisations. As a
result, PAT also improved ~175% QoQ to ~|  1065 crore, against our
estimates at  | 1292 crore. However, concerns  like i) ban on iron ore
exports by Karnataka, ii) logistical bottlenecks in Goa and iii) proposed
mining policy of 26% profit sharing with locals by mining companies
have led us to revise our FY11E and FY12E EPS estimates to | 43.7 and |
38.4, respectively. We have revised  our target price on the stock to  |
319/share and assigned a REDUCE rating.

Emkay: Bank of Baroda Q3FY11; Superb performance; Target: Rs 1,160: Emkay

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Bank of Baroda
Superb performance


BUY

CMP: Rs 835                                        Target Price: Rs 1,160

n     BOB’s Q3FY11 net profit at Rs10.7bn was ahead of our/street expectations driven by better than expected NII and lower than expected provisions for pension liability
n     The slippages were extremely positive surprise at just Rs2.4bn (0.5% annualised). The management has guided that the slippages will not show any sharp movement in future
n     The bank’s second pension liability came in at Rs20.6bn to be amortised over five years. The bank provided Rs3.1bn over 9MFY11 (Rs1.8bn in Q3FY11)
n     Building in 20bps contraction in NIMs but lower provisions and cost ratios will mitigate the negative impact. Valn at 1.7x/1.4x FY11/FY12E ABV not unreasonable. Maintain BUY

Buy DB Corp- Impressive ad growth…Target Rs 289: ICICI Securities,

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DB Corp- Impressive ad growth… 
On a consolidated basis, DB Corp reported better than expected
Q3FY11 results. Topline stood at  | 348.2 crore (I-direct estimates of  |
324.8 crore), growing 24.7% YoY on the back of 29.0% YoY print ad
revenue growth. EBITDA for the quarter grew 22.5% YoY and 20.7%
QoQ to | 114.8 crore. The EBITDA margin at 33.0% declined 60 bps YoY
on the back of the launch in Jharkhand. The company reported a PAT of
| 65.9 crore as compared to | 50.6 crore in Q3FY10.

Allahabad Bank Robust performance; strong BUY: Rs 250 Target: Emkay

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Allahabad Bank
Robust performance; maintain strong BUY


BUY

CMP: Rs 202                                        Target Price: Rs 250


n     ALBK results inline with expectation with NII at Rs10.5bn and net profit at Rs4.2bn
n     The NII for Q3FY11 has grown by 55.7%yoy to Rs10.5bn driven by 31% yoy (4.6% qoq) growth in advances and 14bps expansion in NIMs to 3.4%
n     The asset quality remained largely stable with GNPA and NNPA at 1.8% and 0.6%. Slippages controlled at Rs3.5bn (Rs4.5bn in Q2FY11) including few one-offs
n     Valuations attractive at 1.4x FY11E/1.1x FY12E ABV. We maintain our BUY rating with price target of Rs250 (at 1.3x FY12E ABV). Remains our top pick in mid-sized PSU banks

Tata Chemicals Q3FY11; Downgrade earnings on weak results; Target: Rs 393: Emkay

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Tata Chemicals
Downgrade earnings on weak results


ACCUMULATE

CMP: Rs 345                                       Target Price: Rs 393

n     TCL reported weak results with 34% yoy decline in APAT to Rs 1.5 bn driven by 570 bps drop in EBITDA margin, however the same was in line with our estimates
n     Weak results of subsidiary BMGL due to adverse climatic conditions in Europe and of IMACID due to plant shut down affected Q3FY11 results
n     Price increase of 7-12% taken in soda ash in various regions should help in margin expansion in the near future, however management outlook on fertiliser business remains cautious 
n     Downgrade FY11E / FY12E estimates by 17% / 7% to Rs 28.7 / Rs 33.2 on account of margin pressure in its soda ash business, however maintain ACCUMULATE rating

Add UltraTech Cement: Improved realisations drive margins; target Rs 1038 :: ICICI Securities

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UltraTech Cement - Improved realisations drive margins… 
UltraTech reported net sales of  | 3715 crore and net profit of  | 319
crore, which were higher than our respective estimates of | 3617 crore
and | 289 crore. This was on account of higher than expected cement
realisation. Sequentially, blended sales volume and blended realisation
increased 7% each. OPM improved 417 bps QoQ to 19% (our estimate:
17%) due to better realisations and flat cost QoQ. EBITDA per tonne has
increased 70% QoQ to  | 722 per tonne in the quarter against our
estimate of  | 612 per tonne. Going forward, we expect the topline to
improve on the back of increasing realisations and sales volume.
However, rising input costs will put pressure on margins.

ICICI Sec:: Union Bank of India- Business growth picks up, slippages demur…

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Union Bank of India- Business growth picks up, slippages demur… 
Union Bank of India (UBI) reported NII of  | 1616 crore ahead of our
estimates. This was on account of expansion in NIM to 3.44% and healthy
loan growth of 26% YoY to  | 133787 crore with continued traction in
CASA deposits, which now stand at 33.3%. Deposit growth also picked
up pace by registering 5% QoQ, 24% YoY growth to | 186655 crore. NIM
improved on account of ~40 bps YoY, 11 bps QoQ growth to 8.4% while
CoD was up 10 bps QoQ and down 23 bps YoY to 5.16%. The tendency of
CoD is to move with a lag. Hence, we see a 15-20 bps moderation in NIM
in Q4FY11 and expect FY11E NIM at 3% for UBI. Provisions stayed high at
| 400 crore against | 161 crore in Q3FY10 and | 599 crore in Q2FY11. PAT
was recorded at | 580 crore (our estimate of | 541 crore). We expect 21%
CAGR in PAT over FY10-12E to | 3142 crore.

Angel Broking upgrades HUL to Neutral from Reduce : 3QFY2011 Result Update

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HUL – 3QFY2011 Result Update

Angel Broking upgrades HUL to Neutral from Reduce.


HUL posted weak set of numbers on the earnings front for 3QFY2011. While
revenues came in line with our estimate, growing 11.6% yoy to `5,027cr
(`4,504cr), recurring earnings declined 5.2% yoy on the back of margin pressures
arising from raw material cost inflation. Other key highlights of the results
include: 1) revenue growth of 5.8% yoy in the soaps and detergents (S&D)
segment, 20% yoy in personal product (PP) segment and 9.3% yoy in beverages
segment, 2) exports grew 200% to `23cr (`8cr), with EBIT margin expansion of
496bp yoy, and 3) decline in OPM by 353bp yoy to 12.4% on account of gross
margin contraction of 202bp yoy. We upgrade the stock from Reduce to Neutral.

UTV Software-upgrading the stock from REDUCE to ADD :: ICICI Securities

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UTV Software -Impressive performance...
On a consolidated basis, UTV Software reported a topline of  | 255.9
crore (I-direct estimate of | 293.0 crore) improving 16.0% YoY and 6.7%
QoQ. The growth was on the back of improving revenue from the
television and gaming segment, which grew 15.3% and 116.9% YoY,
respectively. The company reported EBITDA of  | 53.4 crore against  |
37.7 crore in Q3FY10. EBITDA margins stood at 20.9%, improving 379
bps YoY and 174 bps QoQ. PAT for the quarter stood at | 40.0 crore (Idirect estimate of | 29.2 crore) as compared to | 37.8 crore in Q3FY10.

JSW Steel Margin under pressure, should improve; Accumulate: Emkay

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JSW Steel
Margin under pressure, should improve; Accumulate


ACCUMULATE

CMP: Rs 903                                       Target Price: Rs 1,060

n     JSW Steel’s Q3FY11 consolidated performance remained broadly weak, despite topline growing by 25% YoY to
n     Rs 60.03 bn, matching our expectations 
n     Higher raw material costs pulled the EBITDA down by 6% YoY to Rs 10.2 bn. EBITDA margin came dropped 544 bps YoY to 16.9%, while EBITDA/ tonne came at Rs 6280  
n     Along with pressure at the EBITDA level, higher depreciation costs due to capitalization, dragged the PAT to Rs 2.92 bn,  down 32% and 22% on YoY and QoQ respectively
n     Factoring in the concerns on raw material costs, better  volume and integration, we estimate FY11E and FY12E EPS at Rs 66.5 and Rs 106.5 respectively  

IPCA Labs - Margin pressure but outlook good, ICICI Securities,

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Ipca Laboratories - Margin pressure but outlook good… 
Ipca’s Q3FY11 results were in line with our expectations. Sales
increased 18% YoY to | 466.4 crore as against our expectation of | 465.4
crore backed by 33% rise in the export formulation business and almost
17% growth in domestic branded formulations. EBITDA margins
declined ~330 bps YoY as sales & marketing expenses and expenses
related to newly joined employees went up. Net profit increased 10% to
| 63.9 crore. We expect the export formulations segment to continue its
growth momentum, going forward. Incremental sales from newly added
medical representatives will also support growth in sales from H2FY12E
onwards. However, EBITDA margins will continue to be under pressure
for at-least two or three quarters. We have revised our target to | 325
with ADD rating after incorporating the FY13E numbers.

Marico Q3FY11 Result Update; Upgrade to ACCUMULATE; Target: Rs 142: Emkay

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Marico
Match-Making Done, Upgrade to ACCUMULATE


ACCUMULATE

CMP: Rs 124                                       Target Price: Rs 142

n     Marico’s Q3FY11 marginally above expectation - APAT at Rs695 mn versus EMKAY expectation of Rs667 mn
n     Volume growth at 15% for Q3FY11 – Hair Oils (31%) and International Business (25%) offsets lower growth in Parachute (3%) and Saffola (13%)
n     Match-Making Done - 24% price increase in ‘Parachute’ and 12% price increase in ‘Saffola –For-- YTD rise in Copra prices @ 62%, Safflower @ 25% and Rice Bran @ 3%
n     Marico has adhered to unit price formula and not deviated from its focus on absolute Ebidta – Upgrade to ACCUMULATE with revised target price of Rs142/Share

Usha Martin – BUY (Q3 FY11 review) IIFL

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Usha Martin – BUY
(Q3 FY11)


 Usha Martin’s Q3 FY11 standalone revenue declined 4.8% qoq to Rs6.1bn inline with our expectations. The
decline in topline was due to a decline in sales volume as the company’s production was affected by a
breakdown of its 30MW power plant. The breakdown of its power plant led to lower availability of power for
the steel division. The situation was further aggravated as it was not able to receive power from the grid too.
Steel production for the quarter declined by 13% qoq to 112,809 tons.

Sell Hindustan Unilever -It’s still gloomy., Kotak Sec,

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Hindustan Unilever (HUVR)
Consumer products
It’s still gloomy. HUL’s inability to fully neutralize input cost pressures will likely hurt
gross margins in FY2012E. Adspends moderation possible; however, meaningful cut not
probable, in our view, given the high market fragmentation. Disproportionate and
frequent price increases in skincare (to cross-subsidize, in our view) could potentially
lead to market share losses. 3Q results disappointed line by line. The only positive –
contribution of personal care in overall profits is increasing. SELL.

Asian Paints - High raw material cost hits margins: ICICI Securities

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Asian Paints - High raw material cost hits margins… 
Asian Paints’ Q3FY11 results were in line with our estimates as sales
grew 29.6% to | 2099.6 crore. The company took an average price hike of
2.9% in the quarter and 11.36% hike in the current fiscal year. Volume
growth remains at ~10% mainly led by strong demand from decorative
paints segment. EBITDA margins were hit by 320 bps to 16.4% due to the
increase in raw material cost. Raw material cost to sales increased from
56.3% in Q3FY10 to 59.7% in Q3FY11 as crude-based derivative
commodities prices (PAN and Penta) witnessed a steep rise. The raw
material cost index for the company stood at 115.4 on December 31, 2010
compared to 112.4 on September 30, 2010. Other income has risen 16.1%
to | 19.4 crore. Consolidated net profit increased 11.1% to | 220.3 crore.

News Headlines: Jan 28, 2011: Kotak Sec

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Economy News
4 Rising oil prices and firming up of global and domestic food prices are
likely to have a significant impact on inflation outlook in 2011 (ET).
4 After registering positive growth for three months in a row, India's
apparel exports again slipped about 3% to $716 million in November
year-on-year, due to less demand from the West and rising input cost
(ET).

JK Tyres: Rubber continues to batter profitability :: ICICI Securities

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JK Tyres: Rubber continues to batter profitability… 
JK Tyres and Industries (JKTIL) reported its Q3FY11 results that were a
mixed bag as topline came in at  | 1174.4 crore (I-direct estimate  |
1060.8 crore). It grew 47.0% YoY but declined 3.6% YoY due to the
growth in TBR and PV segment and  higher realisations YoY. On the
negative front, the EBITDA margin came under serious pressure at 5.3%
(I-direct estimate 5.0%), a 920 bps YoY decline due to skyrocketing
rubber prices (average cost of  | 194/kg) accentuated by higher other
expenses (150 bps sequentially higher). However, the presence of low
cost inventory (| 80.8 crore) helped arrest a further decline in margins.
The bottomline, already stunted with lower margins, was further
eroded with higher interest costs and tax rates coming in at | 9.1 crore,
which is a decline of ~75% YoY and 54.7%QoQ.

State Bank of India- Beats estimates, core performance robust: ICICI Securities

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State Bank of India- Beats estimates, core performance robust…. 
Net profit of SBI came in line with estimates at | 28.29 billion. However,
NII growth was higher at 43% YoY to  | 90.50 billion vs. estimated  |
84.05 billion. This was due to NIM improving from 2.56% as on
December 2009 to 3.4% as on December 2010. Deposits grew 14.01%
YoY to | 8789 billion while advances surged 21.3% YoY to | 7266 billion.
We expect profits to grow at 21% CAGR over FY10-FY12E.

Opto Circuits-Healthy show… Result Update by, ICICI Securities,

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Opto Circuits -Healthy show… 
Opto Circuits’ results are not comparable as it acquired US-based
Cardiac Science in December 2010. Net sales increased 63% YoY to  |
417.8 crore compared to our expectation of | 378 crore. This was mainly
due to the execution of a big tender order by Cardiac Science during
December 2010. Excluding sales from Cardiac Science, sales increased
37% to | 353.8 crore. EBITDA margins declined ~490 bps YoY to 29.4%
on account of consolidation of Cardiac numbers. Net profit grew 46% to
| 95.9 crore. Cardiac Science is currently incurring losses with an annual
turnover of ~| 630 crore. With drastic cost cutting measures at Cardiac,
the company expects a turnaround  by FY12. We maintain our BUY
rating on the stock.

Info Edge- Impressive revenue, margin growth…: ICICI Sec

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Impressive revenue, margin growth… 
Info Edge’s Q3FY11 results were  better than our expectations. The
company reported a topline of | 75.1 crore against our expectation or |
73.4 crore registering a growth of 27.5% YoY on the back of increased
recruitment activity. The EBITDA  margin improved 610 bps YoY to
36.6%, primarily due to robust revenue growth backed by high
operating leverage. The company reported a PAT margin of 29.2% for
the quarter. PAT stood at | 21.9 crore against our expectation of | 20.3
crore, registering an impressive YoY growth of 40.1%.

LIC Housing Finance: Quarter in line apart from one-off… ICICI Securities,

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LIC Housing Finance: Quarter in line apart from one-off… 
LIC Housing Finance (LICHF) reported robust credit growth of 36% YoY to
| 46380 crore in line with our estimates. This resulted in NII of | 352 crore,
surging 54% YoY. Excluding | 229 crore of provisions on standard assets
for teaser loans and | 136 crore realised for 17% stake sale of LIC MF, PAT
was aligned with our estimates. The company reported PAT was  | 213
crore for Q3FY11 (including one-off). During FY10-12E, we expect NII to
post 31% CAGR and PAT to post 27% CAGR to | 1060 crore.

Buy Symphony: target of Rs1485:: MF Global

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Consumer Durable

Symphony

SYML IN: Buy
Symphony was incorporated in 1988 and is primarily an air cooler company. The company was the first to introduce cooler as a life style product and launched plastic body coolers compared to then available metal coolers.

FII & DII trading activity on NSE and BSE as on 28-Jan-2011

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FII trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment
The following is combined FII trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by FIIs on 28-Jan-2011.
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII28-Jan-20113481.284188.12-706.84
 
Domestic Institutional Investors trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment
The following is combined Domestic Institutional Investors trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by Banks, DFIs, Insurance, MFs and New Pension System on 28-Jan-2011.
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
DII28-Jan-20111769.191687.9581.24
 


-- 

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 28-Jan-2011

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 28-Jan-2011 
 BUYSELLOPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY 
 No. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in Crores 
INDEX FUTURES878442432.71994852753.3040698311225.90-320.59
INDEX OPTIONS49295813437.0837461210397.44154245942502.043039.64
STOCK FUTURES714601901.64875312314.05111880427758.22-412.41
STOCK OPTIONS13638383.2813997391.7710583290.85-8.50
      Total2298.14