21 January 2011

Bank of India - Strong results; Asset quality concerns recedes:: Emkay

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Bank of India
Strong results; Asset quality concerns recedes


ACCUMULATE

CMP: Rs461                                        Target Price: Rs510

n     BOI’s results for Q3FY11 were in line with street estimates with NII at Rs20bn (32.9%yoy) and earnings at Rs6.5bn (61.1%yoy)
n     Key positives in the results – 1) 20bps expansion in NIMs 2) lower slippage rate at 0.8% annualised and 3) stable CASA despite deposit rates going up
n     Added by strong recoveries and lower slippages, the NPAs for the first time showed dramatic reduction at gross as well as net level
n     Valuations attractive at 1.8x FY11E/1.4x FY12E ABV. Asset quality and provisions show improving trend. Expect RoAs to reach back 1%. Upgrade to ACCUMULATE with TP of Rs510

Buy BHEL - Case Strengthens; Target Rs 3,030:: Emkay

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BHEL
Case Strengthens; Retain BUY


BUY

CMP: Rs 2,218                                       Target Price: Rs 3,030

n     Adjusting for One-Offs, BHEL performance meets expectations – APAT growth at 25% yoy to Rs13.4 bn
n     Subdued order inflows in Q3FY11 (down 21% yoy to Rs122 bn) – but not concerning as Q4FY11E asking rate is undemanding at Rs241 bn (-1% yoy). Order backlog at Rs1576 bn
n     Bursting all popular myths and notions, BHEL hinted at substantial operating leverage in business operations, which could fructify beginning FY12E
n     Maintain earnings estimates of FY11E (Rs110.6/Share) and FY12E (Rs129.0/Share). Reiterate BUY with target price of Rs3,030/Share

Buy Punjab National Bank Q3FY11; Higher provisions dent profits; Emkay

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Punjab National Bank
Higher provisions dent profits


BUY

CMP: Rs1,123                                       Target Price: Rs1,500

n     PNB’s Q3FY11 NII at Rs32bn in line with estimates driven by 6% qoq growth in advances and 7bps expansion in NIMs. PAT at Rs10.9bn lower than expected due to higher provisions
n     NPAs inch up as the recoveries remain moderate during the quarter. Slippages remain in line with Q2FY11 at Rs9.7bn for the quarter. Provision cover strong at 77.8% (RBI norms)
n     Other positives in the result – (1) CASA at 39.1% despite strong growth in balance sheet (2) provisions at 71% of net new slippages and (3) accelerated provisions for pension
n     PAT growth lower this year on higher provisions. To bounce back as (1) staff provisions and (2) slippages come done in FY12E Valuations reasonable at 2.0x FY11E/1.6x FY12E ABV

Wipro - Lack of ‘xing’ in results, retain REDUCE :: Emkay

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Wipro Ltd
Lack of ‘xing’ in results, retain REDUCE


REDUCE

CMP: Rs 478                                       Target Price: Rs 440


n     Rev at US$ 1,344 mn (+5.6% QoQ), mgnally lower than est, IT services EBIT mgns flat QoQ at 22.2% (V/s +50 bps exp). Profits in line with est at RS 13.2 bn (+2.6%, +9.6% YoY)
n     Vol growth at 1.5% QoQ trails peers, price realizations up by ~2.9% sequentially driven by ~230 bps increase in Fixed bid proportion of revenues to 46.3%
n     Co announced a change at the top helm with a single CEO  strategy now as it attempts to address underperformance V/s peers
n     Increase FY12/13E earnings by ~6%/3% to Rs 24.5/26.8 driven primarily by lower currency reset. Maintain REDUCE with a revised TP of Rs 440(V/s Rs 420 earlier)

Buy Greaves Cotton-Successfully Fights Base Effect; Emkay

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Greaves Cotton
Successfully Fights Base Effect; Reiterate BUY


BUY

CMP: Rs 91                                       Target Price: Rs 111

n     Strong performance – (1) Revenues up 22% yoy to Rs4.2 bn (2) Stable EBITDA margins at 17% (despite high base) (3) Net profits up 36% yoy to Rs444 mn
n     All-round performance – Engines (revenues +19% and EBIT +16% yoy), Infrastructure (revenues +36% yoy with EBIT of Rs3 mn – after 8 quarters of EBIT loss)
n     Greaves Cotton (GCL) signs 10-year supply contract with Tata Motors for the new ½ ton truck – Ace Zip
n     Upgrade earnings by 5% and 9% for FY11E and FY12E  - Reiterate BUY with revised target price of Rs111/Share

Buy Piramal Glass Q3FY11 Result Update; Both Fire & Ice; Target: Rs 160 :: Emkay

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Piramal Glass
Both Fire & Ice, Maintain BUY


BUY

CMP: Rs 109                                       Target Price: Rs 160


n     Piramal Glass (PGL) Q3FY11 performance buoyed by product mix and operating leverage - revenue growth at 10.7% yoy to Rs3.2 bn and APAT doubles yoy to Rs231 mn
n     Tweaked near-term business strategy – future cashflow earmarked for debt repayment would be diverted to capacity expansion – investing Rs1.0 bn for 160 tpd furnace
n     Strong 9MFY11 performance- aligning FY11E estimates – FY11E earnings revised 7.7% to Rs9.9/Share and retained FY12E earnings of Rs18.8/Share
n     Risk from leveraged balance sheet remains, But valuations attractive – FY12E EV/Ebidta at 4.2X - Maintain BUY with target price of Rs160/Share

OMKAR SPECIALITY CHEMICALS IPO: All you need to know: ASBA, Application, prospectus & grading report

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OMKAR SPECIALITY CHEMICALS LIMITED
Symbol - SeriesOMKAR EQ
Issue PeriodJAN 24, 2011 to Jan 27, 2011
Post issue Modification Period28-Jan-11
Issue SizePublic Issue of 81,00,000 Equity Shares Of Rs 10/- Each
Issue Type100% Book Building
Price RangeRs. 95 to Rs.98
Tick SizeRe. 1/-
Market Lot60 Equity Shares
Minimum Order Quantity60 Equity Shares
IPO GradingIPO GRADE 3
Rating AgencyCARE
Maximum Subscription Amount for Retail InvestorRs.200000
IPO Market Timings10.00 a.m. to 5.00 p.m.
Book Running Lead ManagerAlmondz Global Securities Limited
Syndicate MemberAlmondz Global Securities Limited
CategoriesFI,IC,MF,FII,OTH,CO,IND,and NOH
No. of Cities with Bidding Centers47
Name of the registrarBIGSHARE SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED
Address of the registrarE/2, Ansa Industrial Estate, Saki Vihar Road, Saki Naka,Andheri (E), Mumbai-400 072
Contact person name number and Email idMr. Ashok Shetty, Tel 912240430200, Fax 91222847 5207,ipo@bigshareonline.com
ProspectusClick Here
Trading Member ListClick Here
Application FormsClick Here
ASBA e-form linke-Forms
Grading ReportClick Here

Sell MindTree Flat volume growth, one-offs save the day; Anand Rathi

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MindTree
Flat volume growth, one-offs save the day; maintain Sell
MindTree’s 3QFY11 revenue grew 0.1% qoq (rupee terms) and
3.5% qoq (US dollars). Volume growth was flat, and pricing
growth was 3.7% qoq due to license fee of US$.6m. Net profit
rose 30.7% qoq (albeit down 42.5% yoy) led by one-off gains.

Final Tata Steel FPO Subscription: 6x; HNI 7.2x; QIB 10.4x; Retail 1.6x

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TATA STEEL LIMITED





Total Issue Size48675000
Total Bids Received292370270
Total Bids Received at Cut-off Price25522420
No. of times issue is subscribed6.01


**Click Here ** to see Grey / Gray Market Premium for  Indian IPO/ FPO **Click Here **
Sr.No.CategoryNo.of shares offered/reservedNo. of shares bid forNo. of times of total meant for the category
1Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs)1942500020227336010.41
1(a)Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs)55769660
1(b)Domestic Financial Institutions(Banks/ Financial Institutions(FIs)/ Insurance Companies)104152290
1(c)Mutual Funds42304450
1(d)Others46960
2Non Institutional Investors8325000600269407.21
2(a)Corporates46635250
2(b)Individuals (Other than RIIs)13009920
2(c)Others381770
3Retail Individual Investors (RIIs)19425000310736101.60
3(a)Cut Off26455170
3(b)Price Bids4618440
4Employee Reservation1500000862000.06
4(a)Cut Off80900
4(b)Price Bids5300

Updated as on 21 January 2010 at 1930 hrs

Emkay:: Buy Orient Paper & Industries - Results marginally below estimates

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Orient Paper & Industries Ltd
Results marginally below estimates


BUY

CMP: Rs 50                                       Target Price: Rs 77

n     Net profit at Rs309mn (+2.2% yoy) slightly below estimates of Rs329mn. Revenues at Rs4.38bn (+18%), Cement (+7.4%), Electricals division (+40.6%) & Paper division (+22.6%)
n     Cement revenues grew 7.4% yoy to Rs2.28 bn as realizations improved 13% yoy and 17% qoq led by price hikes in OPIL’s key markets of AP and Maharashtra
n     Paper division witnessed sharp turnaround in profitability with positive EBIT (Rs24 mn) after 7 consecutive quarters of losses as the Amalai paper plant witnessed stabilization
n     OPIL on the verge of earnings recovery led by recent cement price hikes in its key markets and turnaround of paper division. Maintain BUY with TP of Rs77

Gray Market Premium: Tata Steel, Omkar Chemicals, Midvalley entertainment: Jan 21st, 2011

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Company Name
Offer Price
Premium
(Rs.)
(Rs.)



Midvalley entertainment
70
4 to 5
TataSteel FPO
594- 610
10 to 12
Omkar Speciality Chemicals
95 to 98
6 to 7


Upgrade to Hold Infotech Enterprises - Pricing increase to help; Anand Rathi

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Infotech Enterprises
Pricing increase to help; upgrade to Hold
Infotech Enterprises’ EBITDA margin fell 34bps qoq on account
of higher wage and SG&A costs (following a qoq 557bps fall in
1Q and 50bps in 2Q), even with healthy 14.1% volume for the
UTG vertical (6.5% organic) and 5.2% for EMI. Management
indicated that three large clients have agreed to price hikes of 2-
5%, effective 1 Jan ’11, which we believe would help boost margin.
We raise our target price to `190 from `175 earlier and upgrade
the stock to Hold from Sell.

Kotak Securities:: ADD L&T with a target price of Rs1,850/share

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Larsen & Toubro (LT)
Industrials
FY2012E inflows assumptions also face challenge from competition, slowdown.
We attempt a plausible distribution of L&T’s inflows for FY2012E (Rs940 bn) based on
historical trend and sectoral opportunities. We believe that factors like competition
(roads, hydrocarbons), slowdown (metals, refining), clearances/politics (roads, railways)
may persist for FY2012E as well. Sensitivity suggests that 10-15% lower inflows in
FY12E and FY13E can impact earnings by 3-3.5% and 7-8%, respectively. Retain ADD.

India Telecom GSM SIM adds remain steady in December:: Anand Rathi

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India Telecom
GSM SIM adds remain steady in December
Total SIM card additions of GSM telcos (ex RCom, Tata Tele)
were steady at 17.1m in Dec ’10 vs. 17.2m in Nov ’10. Net adds of
leading telcos (Bharti, Vodafone, Idea Cellular, BSNL) were by
& large unchanged m-o-m. In ’10, GSM telcos recorded 162m
net adds (13.5m/month) vs. 117m (9.7m/month) in ’09. The 45m
increase in net-adds was largely driven by new telcos (26m) and
BSNL (8m). Net adds of Bharti and Vodafone were flat yoy in
’10, while those of Idea and Aircel increased ~25%, due to
expansion in new circles.

Upgrade to Add: Cadila Healthcare- Still some steam left :: Kotak Securities

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Cadila Healthcare (CDH) 
Pharmaceuticals 
Still some steam left. PAT was 3% lower than our estimate due to lower-thanexpected operating margin at 20% versus our est. of 21%. Sales was in line with our
est., (1) marked by recovery in Latin America, (2) strong growth continuing in domestic
business (up 17%) and (3) in USA (up 33%). We leave our FY2011-12E estimates
largely unchanged. At current levels, Cadila is trading at 21X FY2012E est. Despite rich
valuations, we believe that underlying growth is intact and we move our rating to ADD
(from REDUCE) with PT at Rs880 (23X FY2012E).

HCL Technologies -Strong pipeline; focus on margin ahead; Hold :: Anand Rathi

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HCL Technologies
Strong pipeline; focus on margin ahead; maintain Hold
HCL Tech’s US dollar revenue grew 7.5% (of which 6.7% volume
growth in Core Software Services). Margin was flat qoq on
account of SG&A containment. Profit was higher owing to lower
forex loss, partly offset by higher tax expense. HCL Tech won 17
transformational deals, indicating a robust pipeline. We raise our
target price to `550 from `450 earlier, and maintain our Hold.

Biocon- Licensing fees boost PAT but growth intact:: Kotak Securities

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Biocon (BIOS) 
Pharmaceuticals 
Licensing fees boost PAT but growth intact. While PAT was boosted by higher
licensing income, we believe base business growth is intact as (1) sales exAxicorp/licensing income, up 21% yoy, was 4% higher than our est. and (2) EBITDA
margin ex-R&D/l. income at 22.5% was up 50 bps yoy. (1) Base business ex-Axicorp, l.
income was up 18/21% in 9M/3QFY11, (2) high-margin research sales were up 14%
from 7% in 2QFY11 and (3) higher R&D expenses being compensated via l. income
reassures us of 24/14% EPS growth in FY2012-13E. We maintain ADD with PT revised
to Rs445 (was Rs470) with FY2012E EPS revised down by 7% due to higher tax rate. (1)
Oral insulin outlicensing, (2) phase IIII clinical data for T1h and (3) Pfizer insulin launch in
FY2012E which will result in upside for Biocon are key stock triggers in FY2012E.

Reliance Posts Highest Quarterly Profit Since 2007 on Refining Earnings: Bloomberg

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Reliance Posts Highest Quarterly Profit Since 2007 on Refining Earnings

Reliance Industries Ltd., India’s biggest company by market value, posted its highest quarterly profit in three years after earnings from oil refining helped make up for a drop in natural gas production.
Net income in the three months ended Dec. 31 rose 28 percent to 51.4 billion rupees ($1.1 billion), or 15.70 rupees a share, from 40.1 billion rupees, or 12.30 rupees, a year earlier, the Mumbai-based energy explorer and refiner said in a statement to the Bombay Stock Exchange today. Profit was the highest since the quarter ended December 2007. The average estimated by 17 analysts in a Bloomberg survey was 52.1 billion rupees.
Refining margins expanded as the global economic recovery spurred fuel demand, outweighing a 12 percent fall in output from India’s largest gas field. Higher profit at Reliance gives billionaire Chairman Mukesh Ambani funds to invest in power generation, telecommunications and U.S. shale gas assets.
“Refining has been picking up and that helps Reliance offset some of the decline on gas production,” Vinay Nair, a Mumbai-based analyst with Angel Broking Ltd., said before the earnings. “There is still potential for growth in their core businesses. Many gas discoveries have been made and there are many unexplored fields with them.”
Reliance shares rose 1.8 percent to 986.80 rupees at close in Mumbai, ending a six-day losing streak and giving the company a market value of $71 billion. The stock declined 3 percent last year compared with a 17 percent gain in the benchmark Sensitive Index.
Refining Margins
Reliance’s two adjacent refineries at Jamnagar in the state of Gujarat produce gasoline and diesel that are exported to the U.S., Europe andAsia. The plants can process a combined 1.24 million barrels a day, equivalent to 1.6 percent of global capacity, according to Reliance’s website.
The company’s gross refining margins were $9 a barrel compared with $5.9 a year earlier, Reliance said in an e-mailed statement. Pretax profit from refining rose 77 percent to 24.4 billion rupees in the quarter, according to the statement.
Global refining margins, or the profit from turning crude into fuels, climbed to $4.64 a barrel in the three months ended Dec. 31 from $4.53 a barrel in the quarter ended Sept. 30 and $1.49 a barrel a year ago, according to BP Plc data.
Essar Oil Ltd., the operator of India’s second-largest non- state, crude-oil refinery, posted a profit in the third quarter and earned $7.2 on every barrel of crude turned into fuels compared with $1.56 a year earlier.
‘Earnings Surprise’
Reliance’s cyclical businesses including refining and chemicals are “turning around” and will likely drive an “earnings surprise” over the medium term, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts including Nilesh Banerjee said in a report Jan. 17. The U.S. bank added Reliance to its Asia-Pacific “conviction buy” list and increased the share price estimate to 1,250 rupees from 1,200 rupees.
Reliance buys heavy grades of crude oil, which are cheaper than lighter varieties, and turns them into high quality products including gasoline and diesel at its refineries on India’s west coast. A wider difference between heavy and light grades of crude oil helps Reliance increase its refining margins.
The difference between light Brent crude oil and heavier Dubai oil increased to $4.52 a barrel today from $0.64 a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Crude oil in New York climbed 12 percent to an average of $85.16 a barrel in the three months ended Dec. 31 from a year earlier, according to Bloomberg data. Prices rose 15 percent in 2010 as demand increased from China and India.
Gas Output
The higher refining margins helped to cushion the impact of falling production at India’s biggest gas field, operated by Reliance. Output at the field off the east coast declined by 12 percent to about 53 million cubic meters a day because wells produced less gas than expected, a person with knowledge of the matter said in November.
Gas production from the KG-D6 block may rise again to 60 million cubic meters a day by April, S.K. Srivastava, head of the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons, India’s oil and gas regulator, said Jan. 11. Output may climb to 80 million cubic meters a day in the year ending March 2013, he said.