15 January 2011

3QFY11 Results Preview: Antique

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3QFY11 Results Preview


Sectors (click of sector for details)
􀂄 Automobiles


􀂄 Cement


􀂄 Financials


􀂄 FMCG & Retail


􀂄 Industrials


􀂄 Information Technology


􀂄 Media


􀂄 Metals


􀂄 Oil & Gas


􀂄 Pharmaceuticals


􀂄 Real Estate



􀂄 Shipping


􀂄 Sugar


􀂄 Utilities & Infrastructure


􀂄 Miscellaneous

Miscellaneous: 3QFY11 Results Preview: Antique

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ABNL
􀂄 ABNL will continue its growth momentum witnessed since 2QFY10. So, 3QFY11 will
see revenue growth of 33% YoY to reach IRN16.7bn with the growth driven by garments,
carbon black, textiles and fertilisers.
􀂄 The cost structure would be similar sequentially with rise in raw material costs for carbon
black segment due to higher crude oil prices. So, EBITDA would see an increase of
13% YoY to INR2.7bn but rise sequentially 8%.
􀂄 Similarly, PAT would be boosted by lower charges on account of financial costs and
would rise by 38% YoY.

Utilities & Infrastructure:: 3QFY11 Results Preview: Antique

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We expect a sales growth of 18% for our Utilities and Infra coverage universe mainly aided
by higher revenues from NTPC, Power Grid and Lanco Infratech. We expect profit to degrow
by ~6% YoY) mainly on account of NTPC and GMR Infra. Excluding them both, profit
is expected to grow by ~12%. Power Grid and Lanco Infratech are expected to register
earnings growth in excess of 20%. These two stocks remain our top picks as well.

Sugar: 3QFY11 Results Preview: Antique

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Balrampur Chini Mills
􀂄 BCML is expected to post revenues of INR5bn in 5QFY11, an increase of 14% YoY. This
will be mainly on account of higher contribution from cogen division and a marginal
increase in revenues of sugar and distillery divisions. On the performance of sugar
division, we expect volumes to rise by 14% to 155,000mt and average realisations to
decline by 12% to INR26,500/mt.
􀂄 We expect OPM to shrink by 1,790bps to 12.1% as the December 2009 quarter was
one of the best quarter. Accordingly, operating profits should decline by 54% to
INR602m.
􀂄 Capital charges should increase by 10% to INR490m on account of higher interest
outgo. We expect net profits to decline by 87% to INR101m.

Shipping: 3QFY11 Results Preview: Antique

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Freight rates in tanker segment reported significant increase on a YoY basis from low base
in 3QFY10 and marginal recovery on a QoQ basis in crude tanker segment (i.e., Dirty
Index). Baltic Dirty Index for crude carriers increased by 31.2% YoY to 848, while Baltic
Clean Index for product carriers increased by 34.2% YoY to 684. However, product rates
remained weak on QoQ with 6.7% decline in Baltic Clean Index. The freight rates for very
large crude carriers (VLCC) remained weak compared to smaller vessels. The time charter
yield in VLCC declined by 61.4% YoY to USD6,832pd. The freight rates index for dry bulk
commodity, Baltic Dry bulk Index (BDI) declined by 31.7% on a YoY basis (marginal increase
of 0.6% on QoQ basis) to 2,363 in 3QFY11.

Real Estate: 3QFY11 Results Preview: Antique

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DLF
􀂄 Key launch of Alameda plots in Sector 73 of Gurgaon during the quarter is expected to
help boost EBITDA margins QoQ.
􀂄 Forthcoming launches include Horizon Centre in Phase V Gurgaon and plots in Indore.
􀂄 We believe it will be difficult for the company to achieve its target of >12m sq ft of
residential sales in FY11.

Pharmaceuticals - 3QFY11 Results Preview: Antique

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High base effect to impact domestic growth rate
Indian pharmaceutical companies are likely to maintain strong growth in 3QFY11 despite
high base effect in 3QFY10. The sustained growth is driven by new product introductions
and higher penetration in the domestic and regulated markets. Domestic formulation market
is expected to maintain its growth momentum and rise ~17% with chronic therapy areas
outpacing the acute. However, we expect high base effect to catch up in 3QFY11 resulting
in lower sales in the domestic formulations segment. Pharma companies are expected to
register a growth of ~12-15% in the domestic market; however, adjusting with base effect,
the growth could be ~7-8%. Most domestic companies have expanded their field force in
3Q, which will also result in higher sales in the local markets. Pharmacos, such as Ipca,
Lupin, Sun Pharma, Cadila Healthcare, are expected to grow ~15-18%.

Oil & Gas: 3QFY11 Results Preview: Antique

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OMCs to post losses, as government support on under-recoveries to
come with a lag
During 3QFY11, with a 14% QoQ rise in oil prices to USD86.8/bbl, under-recoveries on
diesel and cooking fuel prices have risen to INR149.3bn from INR10.5bn in 2Q. We estimate
cooking fuel and auto fuel (diesel) under-recoveries at INR91.4bn and INR57.8bn, respectively.
We have assumed 1/3rd of total under-recoveries by upstream companies and rest 2/3rd
remains in the books of OMCs’ pending compensation from government, leaving them into
losses for the Quarter. Despite better GRMs (+USD1.2/bbl), FX gains due to rupee appreciation
(+INR1.6/USD) and inventory gains due to rising oil price (+USD10/bbl), OMCs are expected
to post moderate losses in pending compensation of under-recoveries. Though we expect
compensation of losses in the coming quarters but clarity on sharing of losses is yet to emerge.

Metals & Mining:: 3QFY11 Results Preview: Antique

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The metals sector had been severely impacted by the consumption slowdown in major
markets and has witnessed huge volatilities in raw material and finished product prices.
3QFY11 marked sharp recoveries in prices of base metals with near term bottom seen in
2QFY10. Opposite was true for ferrous products where raw material prices increased but
end products sequentially were at similar levels. However, towards quarter end, ferrous
products also saw price recovery though Australian floods have aggravated raw material
situation.

Information Technology: 3QFY11 Results Preview: Antique

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Slightly better growth expected in a weak quarter
We expect Infosys and TCS to report a slightly better growth in the range of ~4% and ~7.3%
respectively on a sequential basis in an otherwise traditionally weak quarter due to lower
number of working days in the quarter. Positive surprise on the revenues can come due to
demand traction and budget flush. We believe demand will be strong from BFSI followed
by upcoming verticals like healthcare and energy and utilities. On geographical front we
expect strong demand traction from US and Asia Pacific while a slightly slower demand
from Europe.

Media: 3QFY11 Results Preview: Antique

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The festive season started late in FY11 shifting the festive linked growth to 3QFY11. While
1QFY11 saw an ad spend growth of 32% to USD6.7bn, 3Q numbers will be positive
backed by the increasing consumer spend during festive season.
The host of reality shows such as Big Boss, Kaun Banega Crorepati, Zhalak Dikhla Jaa, etc.,
led the current quarter; moreover, Cricket World Cup and IPL 4 will glue the customer to the
television set in coming quarters.

Industrials: 3QFY11 Results Preview: Antique

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We expect our universe of Industrial companies to witness a revenue growth of 12% for the
quarter which will translate into net profit growth of 6%. Excluding Suzlon (which we expect
to report a loss), profit for the pack is expected to grow by 12% YoY (~10% growth QoQ).
Overall, we are positive on the outlook of set of numbers from BGR Energy, L&T and BHEL.

BHEL
We estimate the company to record sales growth of 20% for the quarter mainly driven by
the strong order booking. At the end of 2QFY11, BHEL had an order book of ~INR1.5tn.
Our EBITDA margin estimate is 19% for the quarter which implies flat margins compared to
last year. Net profit is estimated to be INR12.1bn - growth of 13% over 3QFY10. In the last
two years, order inflows for the company have been stagnating - this remains the key
concern on the stock going forward. Order inflows from the industrials segment can have a
positive surprise given the strong traction in the economy.

L&T
L&T has not been able to show strong revenue growth in 2QFY11 (~6.5%) on account of
some large projects being in the initial stages of execution, and hence, the revenue growth
was moderate YoY. In the current quarter, we expect revenue growth of ~16% YoY, EBITDA
margin of 12.6% and net profit of INR8.3bn (a growth of 20% YoY).

FMCG & Retail -3QFY11 Results Preview: Antique

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Input cost inflation's larger impact would be witnessed during 3QFY11
We believe that the price hikes during 2QFY11 would provide cushion to gross margins
during 3QFY11, despite higher pressure from input cost inflation during the quarter. We
expect that majority of impact caused by input cost inflation would be visible in 4QFY11 as
the companies would be holding low cost inventory of the last three months. Going ahead,
increasingly, we expect to see FMCG companies recording higher raw material cost and
muted ad-spends, as price hikes would be difficult to initiate in an inflationary scenario. This
phenomenon would be particularly true for soap manufacturers as its key raw material, palm
oil has witnessed steep increase during the quarter ended Dec 2010. Average prices of palm
oil (RM for soap manufacturers) have increased by 43% YoY during the period (Oct-Dec
2010) reaching close to the highest price levels during the last five years. However, the
relevant inflation for 3QFY11 would be the 16% growth in palm oil prices during the quarter
ended October 2010.

Banks/ Financials: 3QFY11 Results Preview: Antique

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Robust headline earnings especially for private sector banks
We expect banks and financials to report robust earnings growth at 19% YoY and 10% QoQ
aided by strong pick up in credit growth and marginal compression. Private sector banks are
expected to report stronger earnings at 28% YoY as against 10% for PSU banks. Earnings
progression for PSU banks to remain modest due to higher operating expenses related to
retirement benefits and high loan loss provisioning, especially for SBI and UBI.

Cement- 3QFY11 Results Preview: Antique

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UltraTech Cement
􀂄 For 3QFY11, we expect UltraTech to post revenues of INR34.7bn. The numbers are
post the merger of Samruddhi with UltraTech, and hence, not comparable on a YoY
basis. We expect blended despatches of 9.6mmt.
􀂄 On the back of weak pricing scenario coupled with higher costs, margins are expected
to remain weak at 21.7%. Accordingly, we expect the company to post operating
profits of INR7.5bn, resulting in a blended EBIDTA/mt of INR780.
􀂄 We expect net profits of INR3.1bn resulting in an EPS of INR11.4.

ACC
􀂄 ACC is expected to post revenues of INR22bn, an increase of 4% YoY in 4QCY10. This
will be largely led by 7% rise in cement volumes to 5.6mmt and a 2% decline in
realisations.
􀂄 On the back of weak pricing scenario coupled with higher costs, margins are expected
to contract by 520bps to 18.4%. Accordingly, operating profits should be lower by
19% to INR4bn. We expect EBIDTA/mt to decline by 24% to INR725.
􀂄 We expect net profits to decline by 27% to INR2bn in 4QCY10.

Ambuja Cement
􀂄 ACL's revenues in 4QCY10 are expected to increase marginally by 6% to INR18.7bn.
This will be largely led by 5% rise in cement volumes to 5mmt. Volume growth was
impacted by the plant shut-down at its units in Himachal Pradesh (Suri and Rauri) on
account of transport strike.
􀂄 Capital charges should surge by 35% to INR1.3bn on account of commissioning of
clinker and grinding capacities in 1HCY10.

Margins are expected to contract by 90bps to 23.6% as a result of weak cement prices
coupled with higher costs. We expect EBIDTA/mt to decline to INR885/mt resulting in
operating profits of INR4.4bn.
􀂄 We expect net profits to decline marginally by 3% to INR2.35bn due to lower effective
tax rate (36% vs. 39.3%).

Shree Cement
􀂄 SCL's revenues are expected to increase by 10% to INR9.5bn aided by higher sales
of surplus power. On the volumes front, we expect the same to rise by 2% to 2.6mmt.
We expect the company to sell ~165m units of power in 3QFY11 against 69.8m units
in 3QFY10.
􀂄 Weaker realisations on the power and cement front coupled with higher raw material
costs should lead to a sharp contraction of 1,500bps to 23.8%, resulting in operating
profits declining by 32% to INR2.3bn.
􀂄 Lower operational profitability alongwith higher capital charges should result in net
profits plunging by 58% to INR697m.

HeidelbergCement India
􀂄 HCIL is expected to post revenues of INR1.9bn, a decline of 3% YoY in 4QCY10. This
will be largely led by 3% rise in cement volumes to 0.59mmt and a 6% decline in
realisations.
􀂄 On the back of weak pricing scenario coupled with higher costs, margins are expected to
contract by 250bps to 10.2%. Accordingly, operating profits should be lower by 23% to
INR201m.
􀂄 We expect net profits to decline by 39% to INR82m in 4QCY10.

Automobiles -3QFY11 Results Preview: Antique

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Sector overview
The automobile sector witnessed one of its best quarters in 3QFY11, with demand continuing
to outpace supply for most OEMs. While October and November were strong on account of
the festive demand, December volumes were driven by discounts on 2010-registered vehicles
coupled with pre-buying before the price hikes in January.

AUROBINDO PHARMA - BUY Target Price: Rs. 1630; Fairwealth

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AUROBINDO PHARMA - BUY
 Target Price: Rs. 1630; Upside: +20%; Investment Period: 6M


Aurobindo Pharma Ltd (APL) started as a pure API supplier has now scaled
its business to focus more on formulations. The company has a strong
presence in the antibiotic space especially in the segments of penicillin
and cephalosporins and the anti-retroviral segment. After establishing a
presence in the semi regulated markets, the company began to venture
into the regulated markets of US and Europe and these are expected to
become key growth drivers going forward. Till date, it has commercialized
over 200 API’s and 300 formulation products with 15 manufacturing
facilities across the globe approved by USFDA and other regulators.

Asit C Mehta: Buy Transport Corporation of India

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Asit C Mehta: Buy Transport Corporation of India 


We initiate coverage on Transport Corporation of India (TCI) with a “BUY”
recommendation with target price of ` 135. We are valuing the stock at 13.5x FY12E
EPS of ` 10. An increasing contribution from high margin businesses like express
delivery solutions (XPS) and supply chain solutions (SCS), improving volumes from
the automobile industry with continual and sustainable margin expansion, we believe
TCI will register a growth of 17.9% and 29.5% CAGR in topline and bottomline,
respectively, during FY10-FY12E.

Anand Rathi:: India Consumer- Key takeaways from meeting with President of ISSPA

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India Consumer
Key takeaways from meeting with President of ISSPA
We came back positive on growth prospects of India’s paint
industry, from our meeting with the President of the Indian
small-scale paint association (ISSPA). As per the association, the
paint industry in India would grow at 1.5x GDP, despite
challenges such as high petchem duty and lack of government
regulations on repainting.

Goldman Sachs: Across the Board: 3QFY11E preview

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Goldman Sachs: Across the Board: 3QFY11E preview


3QFY11E earnings preview: India coverage
In this note, we aggregate data for our coverage
in India (121 stocks across 15 sectors) to quantify
expectations for 3QFY11E.
Further deceleration in growth in 3QFY11E –
19% sales growth; 14% EBIT growth
While we expect a modest deceleration in revenue
growth (ex. Energy) in 3QFY11E at 19% vs. 20% in
2Q, escalating input cost pressures coupled with
higher interest expense, would lead to net income
growth of 16% (vs. 23%/26% in 2Q/1Q). We estimate
EBIT margins to contract 100 bp yoy and EBIT
growth to moderate to 14% (vs. 18%/36% in 2Q/1Q).
On a qoq basis, we estimate sales/EBIT to rise by
6%/11%, largely driven by Cement, Metals, Infra.

Anand Rathi:: India Consumer- 3QFY11 – Steady performance

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India Consumer
3QFY11 – Steady performance
We expect consumer companies in our coverage to report steady
revenue growth, largely driven by volume. We expect the higher adspend
due to rising competition to trim margin a tad. Further, given
the higher taxes, we expect yoy net profit growth in the sector at 16%.
 Steady revenue growth. Revenue growth for the sector is likely to be
17%, mainly led by volume growth. The impact of price hikes would
be higher in 3QFY11 than in earlier quarters. The full impact of price
hikes in 3QFY10 would be seen in 4QFY11.

Asit C Mehta: Initiating coverage on IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd. with “Buy”

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Investment Thesis
We are initiating coverage on IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd. with “Buy”
recommendation based on SOTP valuation with target price of ` 321. We have valued
BOT projects at value of ` 125 per share, EPC business is valued at of ` 170 per
share, ELSAMEX SA (an international subsidiary) is valued at ` 22 per share and
other non-road projects are valued at ` 4.5 per share. On account of revenue from 22
road BOT projects and strong EPC order book, we expect the revenues to register a
CAGR of 51% over FY10 – FY13E. With impressive track record of winning projects
in past and current huge opportunities in road infrastructure segment (` 85 bn in RFP
stage and ` 761 bn in RFQ stage), we expect ITNL to further enhance its current
road portfolio of 10,000 kms. However, high EPC revenues having lower margins
and higher leverage will impact margins.

Kotak Securites: KALPATARU POWER TRANSMISSION: Management Meet Highlights

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KALPATARU POWER TRANSMISSION


q KPTL is favorably poised in terms of capacity and execution, to benefit
from recent thrust in T&D spending in India.
q Order flows from PGCIL have remained sluggish so far. Continued momentum
in investment in transmission towers by state utilities and
PGCIL is critical and remain as a key variable to monitor for company's
growth.
q Company is likely to maintain its dominant position in the domestic
market amidst stiff competition among various players in the industry.
q Company has been observing traction in its key subsidiaries. Management
expects Shree Shubham logistics to break even this year and envisage
meaningful opportunities for JMC projects in the road BOT space.
q Stock has been underperforming the broader market through past two
quarters. We believe that company's fund raising in last fiscal has met
with skepticism and is the primary reason for this.
q We maintain our BUY rating on the company's stock in view of adequate
upside to our DCF based target price of Rs.262.

Kotak Securities: NOVEMBER IIP: DRAWS BLANK; GREW BY MERELY 2.7%

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NOVEMBER IIP: DRAWS BLANK; GREW BY MERELY 2.7%
Consumer Goods disappoint posting negative 3.1% growth!!
IIP grew by merely 2.7% in November against 11.3% in October (revised
upward from 10.8%). On a MoM seasonally adjusted basis growth in
November was -7.8% against 6.5% in October. Cumulatively during Apr-Nov
10 IIP growth stood at 9.6% against 7.4% in the same period last year.
IIP peaked in March, has come off a bit towards its trend level, going
forward we expect moderate improvements in IIP, as base effect benefits
wane. In our view, the economy is likely to continue on its growth
trajectory of about 9% GDP growth, and IIP shall be over 9% for the fiscal.
Inflation data for the month of December to be released on Friday would set
the tone of RBI's hawkishness. We expect WPI inflation for the month of
December to be over 8.5% vs 7.5% in November. We also expect RBI to
increase policy rates on next policy meeting on January 25th.
However, given high levels of inflation, along with tight liquidity scenario
and political impasse in parliament we believe RBI to announce measures
for liquidity easing may be through temporary CRR cut or more aggressive
government bond buying. We continue to expect further increase in policy
rates going forward, given high inflationary pressure and likely pressure
from increasing prices of global commodities. We expect benchmark yields
to strengthen towards 8.5% over the course of the fiscal.

Steel Authority of India – 3QFY2011 Result Update- Angel Broking

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Steel Authority of India – 3QFY2011 Result Update

Angel Broking maintain Accumulate on Steel Authority of India with a Target Price of Rs182.

SAIL reported net sales of `11,143cr, in line with our estimate of `10,825cr.
However, net profit came in at `1,107cr, below our estimate of `1,200cr.

Realisation dip – A negative surprise: During 3QFY2011, the company’s sales
volume grew by robust 10.5% yoy and 7.3% qoq to 3.25mn tonnes, aided by
7.2% yoy growth in value-added sales. However, the sequential drop in
realisations (down 2.0% to `34,287/tonne) came as a negative surprise despite
the ~`500/tonne qoq increase in steel prices. Management indicated that the dip
in realisations was on account of liquidation of defective rails inventory to the
extent of 35–40kt during the quarter. Despite lower realisations, EBITDA/tonne
grew by 2.4% qoq to US $123; however, it was down 34.5% yoy as raw-material
cost increased by 33.7% yoy to `15,695/tonne. Consequently, EBITDA margin
contracted by 1,047bp yoy and remained flat sequentially. As a result, EBITDA
declined by 30.4% yoy to `1,796cr (up 6.0% qoq), which resulted in a 33.9% yoy
decline in net profit to `1,676cr (up 1.6% qoq).

Sharekhan Special Q3FY2011 earnings preview

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Sharekhan Special
Q3FY2011 earnings preview


Key points
The third quarter of FY2011 started on an extremely
positive note with the equity markets surging sharply
in September 2010 on the back of the continued
momentum in economic revival and strong foreign
inflows. However, the sentiments turned edgy by the
end of the quarter due to a series of negative news
flow (scams, political instability etc) and the
emergence of macro headwinds in forms of rising
commodity prices globally and stubbornly high food
inflation domestically.

Sharekhan Special Q3FY2011 Retail earnings preview

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Sharekhan Special
Q3FY2011 Retail earnings preview


Retail counter continues ringing
The continued consumer confidence on the back of
sustained economic buoyancy, the festive season (Diwali,
Chirstmas) that fell this time in the third quarter and a
strong winter across the country kept the retail stores
busy with increased footfalls and higher conversion.
Our talks with various retailers (listed as well as non-listed)
have revealed that the same-store sales growth
momentum remains strong in the high teens, with home
retailing witnessing strong traction along with the other
lifestyle categories.

HSBC Research: Power Grid Corp of India- Initiate at OW: Wiring India

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Power Grid Corp of India
Initiate at OW: Wiring India
􀀗 PGCIL best positioned to benefit from two-fold growth in
sector capex by FY17; it has the lowest risk profile
􀀗 FY11-13 EPS set to grow at 17% CAGR against 12.5% since
FY07; EPS growth likely to sustain until FY17 on strong capex
􀀗 Initiate OW with INR130 TP; FY10 underperformance due to
lower increase in asset base but our project-wise analysis
suggests this will change in FY11-12

UBS:: Steel Authority of India -Downgrade on muted earnings outlook

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UBS Investment Research
Steel Authority of India
Downgrade on muted earnings outlook
􀂄 Higher raw material costs, employee expenses to impact margins
We estimate SAIL will use 2.7mt of high-cost coal (US$300/t) in FY11 out of total
coking coal use of c14mt. It has used 2.5mt in 9MFY11. We raise our FY11/FY12
employee expense estimates from Rs70/71.4bn to Rs75/77.3bn. However, we do
not expect SAIL’s margins to be under pressure in FY12 (despite high coking coal
prices in Q1 FY12) as SAIL used similar high cost coal and a similar quantity in
FY11). We believe the follow-on public offering (in two tranches in Q4 FY11 and
FY12 as per media reports) is also likely to be an overhang on the stock.

UBS: JSW Steel -Too much pessimism priced in

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UBS Investment Research
JSW Steel
Too much pessimism priced in
􀂄 Expansion plans on track; valuing investment in Ispat at book value
The 3.2mt brownfield expansion at Vijaynagar appears on track for March 2011
completion, increasing capacity to 11mt. We value JSW Steel’s (JSW) investment
in Ispat at book value. JSW will buy a 41% stake at Rs21.57bn, implying a
contribution of Rs97 to our price target of Rs1,300. We do not value the West
Bengal expansion. JSW plans to invest approximately Rs53bn.
􀂄 Assume full dilution of promoter warrants

UBS: Tata Steel - Positive developments continue

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UBS Investment Research
Tata Steel Ltd.
Positive developments continue
􀂄 Tata Steel board approves 57m ordinary share issuance
At the current price of Rs637 share, the issue size would be about US$807m.
While this will lead to c6% dilution, we view it as a positive step as it will help the
company to deleverage. Tata Steel has net debt of about US$10bn and a debt-toequity
ratio of 1.6x, which the issuance should reduce to 1.3x. We consider this
another positive development. In the past four months there have been a series of
positive developments for the company: 1) the direct ore project in Canada; 2)
interest by global majors in Riversdale; and 3) the potential sale of the Teesside
plant in UK.

UBS: India Steel Sector :: Correction—selective buying opportunity

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UBS Investment Research
India Steel Sector
Correction—selective buying opportunity
􀂄 Key issues such as higher raw material costs, slowing demand priced in
We believe the recent correction (up to 23% in the past three months) in the Indian
steel sector presents selective buying opportunities. In our view, the key reasons
for the recent correction are not structural in nature: 1) rising coking coal prices
(US$300/tonne compared to US$225 for January-March contracts) due to flooding
in Australia, which has impacted 40% of global seaborne trade. However, we
believe prices should adjust in Q2 FY12 as supply is restored after the flooding.
We think this could increase costs US$60/t for the April-June quarter. And 2) weak
domestic macro datapoints: YTD domestic steel consumption growth has slowed to
8.3% (compared to 11.1% YTD to September).

Tata Steel Follow On Offering (FPO) priced at Rs 594-610/share

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Tata Steel

Follow On Offering (FPO) priced at Rs 594-610/share

Dates between January 19th-21st



**CLICK HERE **  for reports on Tata Steel ** Click Here**

ICICI Securities:: Shipping Monthly Report – January 2011

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Shipping Monthly Report – January 2011
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) declined 16% to 1773 in December 2010
led by a 19% decline in the Capesize index to 2346 and 22%
decline in Panamax index to 1845. Steel production in China
declined 0.3% MoM to 50.2 million tonnes (MT) in November.
However, iron ore imports by China increased 26% MoM to 57.4

RBS: Larsen & Toubro - Turning cautious

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Larsen & Toubro
Turning cautious
We believe that L&T's order inflow guidance for FY11 could be at risk. We also
expect slower order flow to impact growth in FY12 and FY13. However, we
believe the medium term outlook is still strong and L&T is well geared for playing
the India capex story. We maintain our Hold rating with a revised TP of Rs1800

UBS: Zee Entertainment - 3Q disappoints due to higher sports losses

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UBS Investment Research

Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd
3Q disappoints due to higher sports losses
􀂄 One-off income shores up reported revenue
Zee Entertainment’s (Zee) 3QFY11 revenue grew 16% QoQ to Rs8.2bn, which
was above UBS’s estimate (Rs7.1bn) mainly on one-off revenue of Rs700m.
EBITDA (including the one-off income) grew 19% QoQ to Rs2.2bn (versus UBS’s
estimate Rs2.0bn); EBITDA margin was 27.2% (versus UBS’s estimate of 27.0%).
Reported net profit came in at Rs1.55bn, in line with UBS’s estimate. Adjusting for
the one-off revenue, EBITDA was 24% below our estimate (20.4% EBITDA
margin) while revenue was in line with our estimate.

RBS:: Crompton Greaves- Powergrid orders to intensify

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Crompton Greaves
Powergrid orders to intensify
Our discussions with PGCIL indicate that ordering activity is likely to intensify in
the current quarter, as PGCIL targets ordering of Rs150bn in FY11, implying
~Rs70bn of orders in the quarter. New tenders will also have domestic facility
clauses. This is positive for Crompton, which is best positioned in our view.

Morgan Stanley :: Zee Entertainment- Poor 3QF11 Result: Programming Cost Jumps

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Zee Entertainment Enterprise Limited
Poor 3QF11 Result: Programming Cost Jumps

Quick Comment – Impact on our views: The near
term concerns on the setback in rating points and their
earnings impact seems to be reflected in the stock price
post the recent underperformance of the stock. The
stock looks attractive from a 12 month perspective as:
(a) ZEEL’s subscription revenue gains from digitization
start to accelerate in next 2-3 quarters; (b) competitors’
program spend starts plateauing in the next 1-2 quarters
and ZEEL's efforts to spend more on content start
improving its ad revs; and (c) ZEEL may look to return
cash or open up some new revenue streams in 2011.

BofA Merrill Lynch: HDFC: 3Q earnings in-line; Maintain Buy and PO

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Housing Development Finance Corp. Ltd. 
   
3Q earnings in-line; Maintain Buy and PO 

„3QFY11 Earnings: In-line; retail volumes strong
HDFC’s 3QFY11 earnings at Rs8.9bn, up 33%, were exactly in line with
estimates. Loans grew by 21% yoy, adjusted for sell-down to HDFC Bank, growth
at 27% yoy. Disbursements grew 23% yoy, but were down +20% qoq owing to
sharp slowdown in corporate lending, but retail disb., in our view, are still up +4-
5% qoq. Topline (in-line) grew 20% yoy and spreads were maintained at +2.3%.
HDFC has recently effected a 75bps hike in lending rates and hence indicated
that they will be able to manage their spreads going ahead despite rising costs.
Asset quality comfortable with gross at 0.9% (down 9bps yoy). Tier 1 at 13%.
Tweak net profit est. by <1/2% to factor in lower fees

JP Morgan: India banking- Unhappy new year

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India banking
Unhappy new year


• India banks enter 2011 with multiple negatives – sustained liquidity
shortage, high food inflation and rising oil prices. We see choppy trade
through 1Q11, but little disruption to India's long-term growth trajectory.
This should drive strong stock performance in the latter part of 2011.

Standard Chartered Research: SAIL- OUTPERFORM

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Steel Authority of India Limited
OUTPERFORM


Summary
In 3Q FY11, Sail’s net profit rose 1.6% qoq (down 33.9% yoy) and EBITDA was up 9.0% qoq (down 32.2% yoy). The
reasons for the weak yoy performance: increase in coking coal prices and employee costs. Given the weak results,
we cut FY11E EPS by 9.3% to Rs13.7. However, given the increase in steel prices in Jan ’11, we believe our FY12
earnings estimates will be met. Maintain OUTPERFORM and price target of Rs241.

Deutsche Bank:: HDFC: Pricing power compensates rise in funding costs

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HDFC: Pricing power compensates rise in funding costs


Consistent performance continues but largely priced in
We maintain our Hold rating on HDFC with a TP of Rs670. Mortgages remain one
of the finest assets in India and HDFC’s liquidity management is
uncharacteristically commendable for a  non-bank. Of course there are a larger
number of credible players than even two years ago and rates offered by stateowned banks are still low. Margins and growth of life insurance new business may
get hurt by recent regulatory changes. Valuations look relatively demanding and
may have factored in this advantage.

Goldman Sachs: Zee Entertainment -3QFY11 results below expectations; ests under review

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Zee Entertainment Enterprises (ZEE.BO) Rs118.00 
   Equity Research
First Take:Adj.3QFY11 results below expectations; ests under review
News
Zee Entertainment announced 3QFY11 net profit of Rs 1554 mn – mostly inline with our and BB consensus estimates. However, adjusting for the Rs
700 mn that the company received as one-time fees for premature
termination of sporting event rights,  net profit was down c.13%
sequentially and c.23% below our estimates. Programming costs as a % of
sales( after adjusting for the Rs 700mn one-time income) rose to 55% - vs.
the 43% levels seen in FY10, significantly impacting operating
performance.

Macquarie Research:: HDFC 3Q FY11: Good show as usual

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HDFC
3Q FY11: Good show as usual
Event
 HDFC Ltd reported 33%YoY growth in net profit to Rs8.9bn, vs our estimate of
Rs8.1bn and the consensus estimate of Rs8.5bn, mainly on account of higher
profits from sale of investments. Maintain Outperform with TP of Rs775.

JP Morgan: HDFC (Housing Development Finance Corporation) - In-line 3Q

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HDFC (Housing Development Finance Corporation) 
Overweight ; HDFC.BO, HDFC IN 
In-line 3Q


• In-line 3Q11: HDFC’s reported 3Q11 net profit of Rs8.9bn, up 33% and
in line with our estimates and marginally higher than consensus
estimates. The high y/y profit growth was due to a Rs1.7bn exceptional
capital gain. Overall loan growth was strong at 27% y/y growth

Royal Bank of Scotland: HDFC - Good show, but priced in

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HDFC Ltd 
Good show, but priced in 
HDFC Limited delivered in-line core earnings for 3QFY11. The pre-emptive buildup of liquidity and possible deployment of such in the near term should help
alleviate margin pressure. The momentum in individual loan growth was a
pleasant surprise. However, core business valuations still appear rich. Sell.

Angel Broking, Weekly Review January 15, 2011

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Markets continue downslide
During the week, markets were on a rollercoaster ride and finally ended in
the negative zone. The benchmark indices, the Sensex and Nifty, lost 4.2%
each. The Indian markets showed weakness during the week, giving away
previous gains despite the global markets remaining flat or positive. Unlike
earlier weeks, markets were highly volatile this week on the back of
apprehensions that the RBI may hike the interest rates to curb inflation. The
BSE mid- and small-cap indices fell in line with the large-cap index, losing
3.3% and 3.9%, respectively. On the sectoral front, the BSE Capital Goods
index was the biggest loser, down 5.9%, followed by the BSE Realty index
and BSE Bankex, down 5.3% each. The BSE FMCG index fared better than
the other indices, losing only 1.5% of its value during the week.

UBS: India Oil and Gas - Too many players in the pipeline?

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UBS Investment Research
India Oil and Gas 
Too many players in the pipeline? 
 
„ Increased competition in the gas pipeline business
We continue to expect growth in gas pipelines in India on rising gas supply and
poor infrastructure, but highlight competition as a concern. Our main concerns are:
1) new competition taking away some of GAIL’s long-term growth; 2) lower
margins,  as the bidding process implies lower tariff and/or aggressive volumes;
and 3) increased competition for potential clients due to geographical overlap.

UBS: Asia Equity Strategy - All eyes on the two I’s - India and Indonesia

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UBS Investment Research
Asia Equity Strategy
All eyes on the two I’s - India and Indonesia

„ How to think about the recent moves
Unsurprisingly, given the recent moves and weakness, we are getting a lot of
questions on the two markets – India and Indonesia. Clients are asking if it’s time
to buy or remain on the sidelines. While MSCI India has corrected 6%, MSCI
Indonesia is down 8%, in the last few days.

Anand Rathi:: Patni Computers -Update on conference call with iGATE

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Patni Computers
Update on conference call with iGATE
iGATE has formulated a strategy to help Patni shore up its shortand
long-term margin via: i) broadening employee pyramid (since
Patni’s average employee experience is higher than industry); ii)
increasing Patni’s fixed price projects (FPPs) by using iGATE’s
estimation model; iii) partitioning employees across projects, thus
improving utilization; iv) adding higher value-add services
(offering iTops to Patni’s clients); and v) reducing recruitment
cost and attrition on the back of improved brand image.