13 January 2011

Coromandel International Q3FY11 Result Update; Results inline; Buy; Target: Rs 435:: Emkay

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Coromandel International
Results inline, Maintain estimates  


BUY

CMP: Rs 279                                       Target Price: Rs 435

n     Results inline with estimates – Revenues at Rs 20.5 bn (+17% yoy), EBITDA margins at 10.9%, APAT of Rs 1.4 bn (-2% yoy)
n     Raw material prices to go up by 6% - margins likely to remain stable on the back of 8-15% increase in fertiliser prices
n     Sales spill over to the next quarter and recent price hike in fertilisers – to result in strong Q4FY11 performance (we expect APAT growth of 64% yoy)
n     Maintain estimates of Rs 22.2 for FY11E (Rs 17.4 for 9MFY11) and Rs 28.9 for FY12E. Re-iterate BUY with target of Rs 435

Sintex Industries Q3FY11 Result Update; Clears Ambiguity; Target: Rs 215: Emkay

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Sintex Industries Ltd
Clears Ambiguity


ACCUMULATE

CMP: Rs 169                                       Target Price: Rs 215


n     Excellent quarter again beating estimates; consolidated revenues up 40% yoy (est. 27% yoy), EBITDA margins 16.6% (up 162bps yoy) and PAT up 55% yoy (est. 39%yoy)
n     Some improvement in working capital cycle visible (111 days, assuming Rs3bn of loans & adv. as cash, otherwise 134 days), net debt reduces by Rs1bn
n     Some clarity on power investment size (likely Rs0.80bn, Max Rs1.4bn) and purpose; ambiguity on investment in oil & gas continues 
n     Fine tune estimates (3% up); Trading at 8.2xFY12E earnings (Rs20.5/Share), upgrade to accumulate on 14% under performance versus nifty in past three months

BSE, Bulk deals, 13/1/2011

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Scrip Code
Company
Client Name
Deal Type *
Quantity
Price **
590033
APW President
RAJASTHAN GLOBAL SECURITIES LTD
B
44337
181.38
590033
APW President
RAJASTHAN GLOBAL SECURITIES LTD
B
53917
182.45
521174
Arora Fibres
DEEPINDER SINGH POONIAN
B
807093
6.53
521174
Arora Fibres
NAVEEN GUPTA
B
123482
6.30

Infosys Technologies Misses heightened expectations: Emkay

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Infosys Technologies
Misses heightened expectations


ACCUMULATE

CMP: Rs 3,205                                        Target Price: Rs 3,400

n     Infy’s Dec’10 show a tad disappointing when weighed against the heightened street expectations. Lower operating performance coupled with higher taxes drove profit miss
n     Seq vol growth at 3.1% was the lowest in 5 qtrs, however improvement in price realizations/cross currency gains helped drive a ~6% QoQ revenue increase. 
n     A 1-2% QoQ growth March’11 qtr guidance is well below a ‘normal’ March qtr’ guidance, however we see reasonable beat on it ahead. 
n     Cut FY11E EPS by ~2% to Rs 120, while tweak FY12/13E EPS up by ~1.1/4.4% to ~Rs 150/182, aided by a currency reset to Rs 45/$. ACCUMULATE, TP Rs 3,400(V/s Rs 3,300 earlier)   

Midvalley entertainment, C. Mahendra IPO Gray Market : 13 Jan, 11

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Company Name
Offer Price
Premium
(Rs.)
(Rs.)



C. Mahendra Export
95 to 110
3 to 4
Midvalley entertainment
64 to 70
7 to 8

FII & DII trading activity on NSE and BSE as on 13-Jan-2011

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FII trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment
The following is combined FII trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by FIIs on 13-Jan-2011.
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII13-Jan-20113370.213619.98-249.77
 
 
Domestic Institutional Investors trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment
The following is combined Domestic Institutional Investors trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by Banks, DFIs, Insurance, MFs and New Pension System on 13-Jan-2011.
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
DII13-Jan-20111405.471163.05242.42
 
 

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 13-Jan-2011

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 13-Jan-2011 
 BUYSELLOPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY 
 No. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in Crores 
INDEX FUTURES752882175.85765582211.2741632911890.21-35.43
INDEX OPTIONS3313249517.383234229363.15170098948737.99154.24
STOCK FUTURES889212440.96715472003.04130562634085.89437.92
STOCK OPTIONS19037583.9419225586.8118541532.56-2.87
      Total553.86

 

Citi: LIC Housing Finance - Risks Increasing at the Margin

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LIC Housing Finance (LICH.BO)
Risks Increasing at the Margin
 Maintain Sell (3M) on increasing risks to NIMs — We are reducing our target
price on LIC Housing to Rs170 per share (from Rs262) as we believe the
increasing risks to its NIMs, reducing mortgage profitability, and recent adverse
developments at the company will likely result in a contraction of its valuation
multiples. We expect the continuing rise in cost of wholesale funds to pressure
NIMs for wholesale borrowers and especially for LIC Housing due to the higher
competitive intensity in the mortgage segment. Our revised target is based on 1.6x
FY12E P/BV (from 2.5x earlier) and is at ~10% premium, to its 3yr average P/BV
multiple of 1.5x.

Religare: FMCG- Rising input costs to dampen prospects

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FMCG
Rising input costs to dampen prospects
We expect our FMCG coverage universe to report sales growth of 17.9% YoY in
Q3FY11, led largely by volumes. Operating margins, however, are projected to
decline 40bps, as input costs have inched up and brand building expenses remain
high due to strong competitive intensity in the sector. Adjusted PAT for our
coverage universe is likely to grow by 14.8% YoY. We maintain our positive
stance on ITC, Asian Paints, Dabur and Marico in staples and United Spirits
(UNSP) and Radico Khaitan (RDCK) in the alcoholic beverages space. We have a
SELL on Nestle, Emami, Colgate and GSK Consumer & Healthcare.

Mahindra & Mahindra (Upgrades continue on better volumes, BUY): IIFL

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Mahindra & Mahindra (Upgrades continue on better volumes, BUY): 


At an analyst meet, Dr Pawan Goenka, President – Farm and Automotive business, Mahindra & Mahindra, reiterated the company’s bullish views on volumes. Management guidance for volume growth is higher than usual, even after accounting for concerns on interest rates and commodity prices. We are factoring in a >150bps decline in EBITDA margin from 2QFY11 level of 15.8%; management said the buoyant volume scenario gives it pricing power, making significant margin erosion unlikely. We upgrade our earnings estimates for FY12 and FY13 by 9-10% on higher volume estimates. Mahindra & Mahindra remains our top pick in the sector; we retain BUY and raise our TP to Rs885 (from Rs850).

Citi: Sell Patni Computer Systems: Contours of the iGate Deal

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Patni Computer Systems (PTNI.BO)
Sell: Contours of the iGate Deal
 Deal with iGate announced — Patni today announced that the three Patni
brothers holding ~45.6% and General Atlantic (GA) holding ~17.4% (including
ADRs) have reached an agreement to sell their stake to iGate Corp. for a
consideration of Rs503.5 per share (deal size: ~$921m). There is no provision for
any non-compete fees and the deal is expected to close by 1HCY11. The deal
values Patni at ~14x CY11E EPS.

Mundra Port And Special Economic Zone : Takeaways from Conference:: Citi

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Mundra Port And Special Economic Zone
(MPSE.BO)
Alert: Takeaways from India Infrastructure Conference, 10-11 Jan
 Takeaways from Mumbai — MPSEZ presented at our India Infrastructure Mini
Conference 2011 in Mumbai. Below are the key takeaways from management:
 Strong volume growth ahead — MPSEZ expects FY11 throughput to be
~50mtpa, up ~30% yoy. Volume growth in FY12 would be driven by increased
throughput of coal for Adani Power's Mundra project and Tata Power's Mundra
UMPP.

NSE, Bulk deals, 13-Jan-2011

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Symbol
Security Name
Client Name
Buy / Sell
Quantity Traded
Wght. Avg. 
Price
BEDMUTHA
Bedmutha Indust Ltd
MAHESH MEETAL
BUY
1,23,748
91.20
BEDMUTHA
Bedmutha Indust Ltd
MAHESH MEETAL
SELL
1,64,701
85.44
BEDMUTHA
Bedmutha Indust Ltd
RAJ FINVEST
BUY
1,91,668
87.09
BEDMUTHA
Bedmutha Indust Ltd
RAJ FINVEST
SELL
2,25,747
85.93
BINANIIND
Binani Industries Limited
CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.
BUY
2,29,861
245.98