27 November 2010

MOIL, Claris, SCI, RPP:: IPO Grey market premium price: Nov 27th, 2010

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Company Name
Offer Price
Premium
(Rs.)
(Rs.)



RPP Infra Projects
75
2 to 3
Manganese Ore
(MOIL)
340-375
 (+ 5% retail discount)
205 to 215
Claris Life
228-235
14 to 16
Shipping Corp FPO
135- 140
(+ 5% retail discount)
2 to 4


Note: RPP Infra Projects IPO price set at Rs 75

HCC: Various issues impact stock performance;Neutral :: Goldman Sachs

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Hindustan Construction Company (HCNS.BO) Rs40.10
Various issues impact stock performance; stay Neutral
News
HCC’s stock price fell 28% in the last 2 days vs. BSE Sensex down 2%. We
think the market is worried that (as per reports in major media such as
CNBC-TV18) HCC’s subsidiary Lavasa Corporation is under CBI
investigation as Money Matters was one of the advisors during the sale of
HCC Real Estate Ltd. developed 247 Park in Mumbai, in which IL&FS
Milestone Fund acquired a 74% stake. This worry was compounded
today by a notice to the company from the Ministry of Environment and
Forests requiring it to show cause on environmental clearances obtained
and prima facie violations of Environmental Assessment Notifications.


Weekly Review- Angel Broking- November 27, 2010

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Market declines further
The Indian stock market continued to fall, with both the Sensex and Nifty
ending the week 2.3% lower. The week began on a weak note, with reports
of North Korea shelling South Korean troops, which sent jitters throughout
global markets, including India. During mid-week, a housing loan scam
broke out, which saw the arrest of top personnel of some public-listed banks.
This weighed heavily on investors’ minds, particularly affecting real estate
and construction players, as well as banks that were dragged into the scam.
This negative sentiment was maintained through the remaining week, with
the market further losing ground. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell
even more compared to large-cap indices, with the mid-cap index falling
by 5.8% and the small-cap index falling by 7.0%. The BSE realty index was
the biggest loser yet again, crashing by 13.6%, partly due to the housingrelated
scam. It was followed by the BSE metal index, which fell by 6.4%.
The star of the week was the BSE IT sector, which gained 2.0%.


Reliance Ind-Strong refining margins bode well for 3Q earnings outlook:: BofA ML

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Reliance Industries Ltd. Strong refining margins bode well for 3Q earnings outlook


􀂄 Good outlook for 3Q FY11E driven by refining; Retain Buy
Reuters’ Singapore complex refining margin at US$5/bbl to date in 3Q FY11 is at
the highest level in seven quarters. 3Q theoretical refining margin of Reliance
Industries (RIL) is estimated by us at US$9.8-10.4/bbl, which is also the highest
level in seven quarters. RIL’s 3Q earnings outlook is good driven by refining even
if 3Q margin is lower than theoretical margin but over US$9/bbl. A good 3Q would
make our FY11E EPS achievable. However refining strength would have to
continue in 4Q for consensus FY11E EPS to be achieved. To achieve our FY12
EPS refining strength needs to sustain even in FY12. Retain Buy.


India banking- Concerns overdone - entry opportunity:: JPMorgan

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• Indian banks have corrected quite sharply in recent weeks, largely on
concerns from microfinance and telecom exposures, and the knock-on
impact of the bribery scandal on real estate exposure. We think the
impact is being overestimated and see this as an entry opportunity with
ICICI, Kotak Bank, and BOB as our top picks.


Sasken Communication: Management Meet Update: ICICI Sec

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Recently we met the management of Sasken to understand its current
business model, industry trends and execution strategy, going forward.
Sasken Communications, established in 1989, employs more than 3500
people and offers a combination of R&D consultancy, wireless software
products and software services and works with network OEMs,
semiconductor vendors, terminal device OEMs and operators across the
world. The key takeaways are highlighted below.


Makaan Property Index (MPI)

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Makaan Property Index (MPI)
 
India's 1st indicator of property price movement
 
 
We are pleased to release the Makaan.com Property Index (MPI) for Sep’10.
As per MPI, the property prices in India rose by 11.9% in Sep’10
compared with last year.
This increase in the national index can be attributed
to the increase in property prices of the key markets of
Ahmedabad (53.2%),
Kolkata (26.9%),
Delhi (25.7%),
Bangalore (12.6%)
Pune (7.8%),
Mumbai (5.5%) and
Hyderabad (2.2%).
Bucking the trend index of Chennai (-5.5%) moved downwards.

Energy- QE2 versus EUX and Indian oil companies: Kotak Securities

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Energy
India
QE2 versus EUX and Indian oil companies. We would advise investors to ignore
news flow around deregulation and subsidy-sharing system for some time and invest
with a 6-9 months horizon. The downstream oil companies have given up most of their
gains post the June 25, 2010 deregulation announcement on concerns of policy
paralysis and high crude prices. We expect periodic bouts of mini-crises in EU and
forced slowdown by China through 1HCY11E to partially offset the impact of QE2 on
crude prices. Inflation in India will be less of a concern over the next few months.

Mphasis Ltd--Challenges persist - HOld:: Emkay

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Mphasis Ltd
Challenges persist


HOLD

CMP: Rs 599                                        Target Price: Rs 600

n     Post the expected bounce back in Mphasis’s stock price after ‘no negative surprises’ in Oct’10, we find little reason to turn more constructive on the stock
n     Op mgns should head further lower driven by supply side pressures, US$/INR appreciation and need to increase S&M investments as co increases focus on non HP business  
n     Cut our Oct’11/Oct’12E EPS by 5%/0.5% to Rs 49.8/54.7 (primarily on reset in US$/INR at Rs 44/$) despite building in higher revenues (22%/21%YoY) 
n     Valuations appear inexpensive at 12/11x FY12/13E EPS, however need to be weighed against ~2.8% EPS CAGR over F11-13E with downside risks to revenue, mgn assumptions

Nov- Dec ROLLOVER ANALYSIS:: Edelweiss

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With selling pressure continuing for the third straight session, benchmark indices
ended in the red. Rollovers however have been on the higher end. At the end of
the November series, ~80% of the market wide futures open interest has been
rolled over to the December expiry. This rolled position is a tad higher than ~77%
seen in the October expiry. The December series will start with market wide
future OI of ~INR 567 bn as against ~INR 618 bn seen at the start of the
November expiry.


Cadila Healthcare; Sun TV; Dumb Commodities Update: IIFL

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Cadila Healthcare (Wait for more triggers, ADD): With 60% CAGR in US revenues over FY07-11ii, Cadila is set to emerge as the latest Indian success story in the US generics market. Significant revenue contribution from the domestic market (37% from prescription drugs, 7% from consumer products), other emerging markets (9%) and high-quality CRAMS (12%) make Cadila a balanced player with sustainable growth prospects. On the other hand, upside is limited, in our view, by slower growth in the domestic market, potential slowing of US growth due to base effect, rich valuations, and lack of major near-term triggers. We initiate coverage with an ADD rating and price target of Rs852.

MOIL- to apply or not? Subscribe Says Way2Wealth

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A “Mini-Ratna” company, Manganese Ore India Ltd. (MOIL), is the largest
producer of manganese ore by volume in India and is one of the largest in
the world. Its manganese ore production has increased from 864,890 ton in
FY06 to 1,093,363 ton in FY10. They currently operate 7 underground
mines (Kandri, Munsar, Beldongri, Gumgaon, Chikla, Balaghat and Ukwa
mines) 3 opencast mines (Dongri Buzurg, Sitapatore/Sukli, and Tirodi).


MOIL, Claris, SCI, RPP:: Gray market premium price: Nov 27th, 2010

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Note: RPP Infra Projects IPO price set at Rs 75

Company Name
Offer Price
Premium
(Rs.)
(Rs.)



RPP Infra Projects
75
2 to 4
Manganese Ore
(MOIL)
340-375
 (+ 5% retail discount)
205 to 215
Claris Life
228-235
14 to 16
Shipping Corp FPO
135- 140
(+ 5% retail discount)
2 to 4

News This Week: Bof A ML: Nov 26th, 2010

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Economics
􀂄 Food inflation fell to 10.15% for the week ended November 13 compared to
10.3% previous week. - Media


BGR Energy - valuation attractive: Buy:: Edelweiss

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BGR Energy (BGRL IN, INR 571, Buy)

BGR Energy Systems (BGR), on November 26, clarified its position on the recent bank loan matter being investigated by CBI. Management stated that the company has not borrowed from LIC Housing Finance and it has no dealings with Money Matters for any debt arrangement/ syndication. Bank of India (BoI) had been part of the 11 bank consortium led by IDBI Bank for raising INR 38.5 bn. The bank had approved INR 5 bn towards the company’s EPC project. The loan had been approved (by Mumbai branch) through the Chennai branch and hence CBI has sought clarity from BGR.

Systemic liquidity concerns persist; ten year benchmark closes at 8.03%:: Edelweiss

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Systemic liquidity concerns persist; ten year benchmark closes at 8.03%
Government securities
 Sovereign bond trading was steady today, with yields closing lower by 2bps. The
benchmark 10 Yr bond closed 2 basis points lower at 8.01% with the total volumes
on the central banks trading platform at INR 6.9bn level. The 8.13 GOI 2022 bond
closed at 8.06% and the 7.99 GOI 2017 bond closed at 7.95%.



News roundup by IIFL

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Corporate Front Page:
Government threatens to cancel coal field allocation to NTPC and CIL. (BS)
Tata Steel is looking at further acquisitions as it boosts capacity to meet booming demand at home and overseas. (BS)
L&T bags Rs.10.3 bn order for construction related works. (BS)
Maruti Suzuki estimates that 20% of the cars will run on CNG by 2016. (BL)
NTPC proposes to invite tenders for power generation equipments for all of its upcoming gas-based plants. (ET)
SBI not to go for overseas bond issue soon. (ET)
Maruti to hire 3,000 employees for expanding service network. (BS)
- Supreme Court rejects Reliance Infra’s plea on toll bid disqualification. (BS)
Cairn seeks nod from the Government for transfer of its main assets. (ET)
Adani to develop non-LNG port at Hazira. (BL)
Kingfisher has received preliminary approval from lenders to recast its debt. (ET)
Jet Airways has entered into a pact with Alitalia to offer non-stop flights from Milano Malpensa to New Delhi. (BS)

Economy Front Page:
Food inflation hits 3-month low of 10.5% for the week ended November 13. (ET)
- MNP to be available pan-India from January 20, 2011. (ET)
- Government may announce fresh round of exports sops in January 2011. (ET)
- Current A/C deficit may exceed 3% of GDP, says Y V Reddy. (BL) 
- SEBI to probe the possibility of insider trading in shares of at least nine companies. (ET)

IndiaER blog was RIGHT!!!! NDTV at new 52 week low #barkhagate. Down 12%!!!

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India Equity Research (IndiaER.blogspot.com ) had said NDTV would touch NEW 52 week low due to #BarkhaGate



NDTV Share price



Nov 19th
Nov 26th
Change
NSE
97.4
85.8
-12%
BSE
98.2
86.9
-12%

NDTV touched Rs 84 after more than a year on  #Barkhagate

Our notes on #Barkhagate impact on NTDV  are
at http://indiaer.blogspot.com/search/label/NDTV


IndiaER.blogspot.com is India's #1 website for Free Indian stock market analysis, equity research reports and IPO news.

See posts (click on links below to see original posts)
Nov 20th : #Barkhagate SHORT/ Sell NDTV - Going to go down coming week!!

Nov 21st:  #BarkhaGate: Media Stock Impact: Bigg Boss = "We, the People" - Review 

Annual Report Analysis - Bharat Forge:: Edewleiss

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Performance of subsidiaries deteriorates further
n  During FY10, Bharat Forge’s (BF) subsidiaries on an aggregate incurred operating losses of ~INR 0.8 bn (FY09 operating profits of INR 0.9 bn) on the back of ~45.8% dip in subsidiaries’ revenue contribution from INR 27.1 bn in FY09 to INR 14.7 bn in FY10.

Banking -move towards safer heavens; Avoid mid cap PSU banks: Edelweiss

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Maintaining our long term fundamental positive view on banks, we believe emerging near term headwinds (largely macro in nature) warrant a closer look, given  the strong outperformance (of 11%) of banking stocks over the past six months (despite the 5% fall over the past three days). We believe the Street, currently, is grappling with the following concerns surrounding the banking sector:

INDIA BUSINESS UPDATE - Top headlines from SEBI, Lavasa, Asian games ; CNBCTV18

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SENSEX SHEDS 181 PTS ON HOUSING LOAN RACKET
Sensex slumped as the housing loan racket continued to hammer realty stocks. It settled at 19,136.61, Nifty tanked 47.80 points to finish at 5,751.95.

DEMOLITION THREAT ON LAVASA CITY BLDGS
The Environment Ministry has issued a showcause notice to Lavasa Corporation for carrying out construction activities without its approval.


ALLCARGO GLOBAL LOGISTICS: buy says Kotak Sec

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q Good growth expected in ECULINE business on the back of growth in
global economy
q Acquired Honk Kong based NVOCC Company - EBIDTA positive
q CFS business doing well - looking to expand at JNPT
q Merged project and engineering solutions business - Rs.2.0 bn order
book
q Looking to spend Rs.2.5 bn in CY11E for expansion and acquisition
q Introduce FY11 earning estimates with EPS estimate of Rs.15.6
q Due to 42% upside potential we continue to recommend BUY on
ALLCARGO with revised price target to Rs.225 (Rs.210 earlier)