03 November 2010

Glenmark: Balance sheet improvement can drive re-rating:: Nomura

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􀁾 Action
YTD Glenmark has underperformed the BSE Healthcare Index and the Sensex by
14%. We believe the risk-reward is favourable as the US pipeline gains traction,
and we see improvement in the balance sheet. We reiterate our BUY rating and
raise our price target to Rs405, implying upside of 25% from current levels.
􀁡Catalysts
Absence of any further deterioration in the balance sheet, with fall in receivables
and debt levels; ramp up of sales in the US.
Anchor themes
Glenmark’s presence across markets — US, India and emerging markets — makes
it a play on growth opportunities across geographies. In addition, there could be
potential upside from the innovation R&D pipeline.


Punjab National Bank- F2Q11: Strong Underlying Trends:: Morgan Stanley

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Punjab National Bank
F2Q11: Strong Underlying Trends

PNB reported profits of Rs10.7 bn for QE-Sep-10.
Profits were up 1% QoQ and 16% YoY and were ahead
of our estimate of Rs8.9 bn. Core-pre provision profits
grew by 9% QoQ and 33% YoY.
The key highlights from the results include:
1) Volume growth was strong. Loans grew by 7% QoQ
and 28% YoY. Deposits grew by 7% QoQ and 18%
YoY.
2) Margins expanded by 12 bps QoQ to 4.1%. NII grew
by 15% QoQ and 49% YoY.
3) Total costs were up 15% QoQ and 38% YoY. PNB
has already started providing for the second
pension option related liability and gratuity (Rs2.5
bn total this quarter). It expects the final pension
liability to be crystallized by the end of this quarter
(current estimate Rs25 bn).
4) Loan loss provisions decreased to Rs3.6 bn (0.7%
of loans, annualized) from Rs5.5 bn (1.2%) in the
previous quarter, driven by lower new NPL
formation. Coverage ratio was stable at 77%.
5) Net capital gains contribution to earnings was
negative Rs270 mn. This compares with a benefit of
Rs1.1 bn in QE Jun-10 and Rs0.7 bn in the same
quarter previous year.
Maintain OW: Headline profit growth trends seemed
weak – but underlying profitability was strong. Core
PPOP grew by 9% QoQ / 33% YoY. Even after making
provisions for pension/gratuity, PNB delivered a ROA of
1.38% average in F1H2011. In this context, we believe
that current valuations of 7.9x F2012e earnings and 4.8x
PPOP are still attractive; hence we maintain our OW.

2QFY2011 RBI Policy Review:: Angel Broking

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Key Measures
􀂄 Repo rate hiked by 25bp to 6.25%
􀂄 Reverse repo rate hiked by 25bp to 5.25%
􀂄 CRR left unchanged at 6.0%

Key Takeaways
Inflation RBI's priority in FY2011
The RBI in its 2QFY2011 monetary policy review raised interest rates for the sixth
consecutive time since mid-March 2010, with an objective to control inflationary
expectations. The RBI raised the repo and reverse repo rates by 25bp each to 6.25%
and 5.25%, respectively.

GRAVITA IPO over subscription details-HNI 182x; retail 37x!!!

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GRAVITA INDIA LIMITED



Total Issue Size3600000
Total Bids Received154359850
Total Bids Received at Cut-off Price41264700
No. of times issue is subscribed42.88


Sr.No.CategoryNo.of shares offered/reservedNo. of shares bid forNo. of times of total meant for the category
1Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs)1775000107147006.04
1(a)Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs)9834700
1(b)Domestic Financial Institutions(Banks/ Financial Institutions(FIs)/ Insurance Companies)160000
1(c)Mutual Funds720000
1(d)Others0
2Non Institutional Investors53250097191900182.52
2(a)Corporates43269850
2(b)Individuals (Other than RIIs)53820050
2(c)Others102000
3Retail Individual Investors (RIIs)12425004639475037.34
3(a)Cut Off41207650
3(b)Price Bids5187100
4Employee Reservation50000585001.17
4(a)Cut Off57050
4(b)Price Bids1450

Hero Honda - 2QFY2011Result Update:: Angel Broking

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For 2QFY2011, Hero Honda (HH) reported decent performance on the top-line
front, while operating performance and bottom-line came in below our
expectations. OPM was largely impacted by higher input cost, which in turn
resulted in poor bottom-line performance. We downgrade our earnings estimates
due to lower than expected performance at operating level and maintain Neutral
rating on the stock.

WELSPUN CORP Top play in pipes :: Edelweiss

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􀂃 Consolidated pipe sales steady at 230 KT; closing order book of 650 KT
Welspun Corp’s (WLCO) consolidated Q2FY11 pipe sales volume stood at 230 KT,
up 9.9% Y-o-Y but down 6.8% Q-o-Q. This comprised 75 KT of LSAW, 137 KT of
HSAW (including 58KT of US sales) and 18 KT of ERW sales. Plate sales were
higher at 128 KT (up 25% Q-o-Q and 13% Y-o-Y) due to execution of some key
orders (from IOCL, Energy Transfer etc.) during the quarter. The company’s
closing order book for Q2FY11 is lower at 650 KT for pipes from 675 KT in
Q1FY11, due to the slow pickup in global oil & gas capex which we expect to
improve, going forward. Plates order book has picked up to 150 KT in Q2FY11
compared to 100 KT in Q1FY11. We expect plate volumes to pick up as WLCO
has started selling shipping-grade steel plates recently. The outstanding order
book provides earnings visibility for the next nine months.

RIL: PAT as estimated; lower GRMs; higher refining volumes:: Edelweiss

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􀂃 PAT in line with estimates; GRMs lower; petchem, E&P better
Reliance Industries’ (RIL) PAT, of INR 49.23 bn, was in line with our estimated
INR 48.96 bn. There were, however, variations in segmental performance.
Earnings in the refining segment were lower due to lower than estimated GRMs,
while EBIT in petrochemicals and oil & gas was higher than our estimates.

MARUTI SUZUKI INDIA Inline; margin pressure to continue:: Edelweiss

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􀂄 Operating performance in line
Maruti Suzuki India’s (MSIL) adjusted net profit, at INR 5.98 bn (down 1% Y-o-Y
and up 30% Q-o-Q), was 6% above our estimate, but in line with consensus.
While operating performance was in line with our expectations, treasury income
was higher than estimate.

HCC: Soft quarter; higher interest costs impact profitability::Edelweiss

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􀂃 Revenue and PAT below expectation
Hindustan Construction’s (HCC) Q2FY11 revenues were below our expectations;
top line, at INR 8.8 bn, grew 13% Y-o-Y but dipped 11% Q-o-Q. EBITDA margin
came in at a healthy 12.8%, up 20bps Q-o-Q and 150bps Y-o-Y. However,
interest charges increased sharply to INR 671 mn, up 34% Y-o-Y and 16% Q-o-
Q. As a result, PAT, at INR 121 mn (against our expectation of INR 192 mn),
jumped 120% Y-o-Y but dipped 57% sequentially. PAT margins, at 1.4%,
increased 70bps Y-o-Y but slipped 140bps Q-o-Q.

Federal Bank – 2QFY2011 Result Update- Angel Broking

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Federal Bank recorded net profit growth of 6.5% qoq and 38.9% yoy to `140cr,
above our estimates of `127cr mainly on account of better-than-estimated
non-interest income. Substantial spike in gross and net NPAs was the key
highlight of the results. We maintain an Accumulate rating on the stock.

Monnet Ispat & Energy – 2QFY2011 Result Update - Angel Broking

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Lower production due to shutdowns: For 2QFY2011, Monnet Ispat (MIEL) posted
net revenue growth of 14.9% to `361cr, down 14.2% qoq. On account of the
maintenance shutdown undertaken during the quarter, sponge iron production
was lower by 5.3% yoy and 7.2% qoq to 162,851 tonnes, whereas power
production was flat yoy and down 15.8% qoq to 215mn units. While sponge iron
sales volume grew by 10.6% yoy to 157,026 tonnes, though down 7.4% qoq,
average realisations for sponge iron increased by 33.9% yoy, down 8.5% qoq.

Bharti Airtel- Buy target Rs 430 ::Motilal Oswal

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Bharti Airtel Limited is India's largest integrated and the first private telecom services provider
with a footprint in all the 23 telecom circles.

Buy BHEL ::Motilal Oswal

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BHEL is India's dominant producer of power and industrial machinery and a leading EPC
company, established in the late 1950s as the government's wholly-owned subsidiary. Post
divestment, the government currently has an equity stake of 67.7%.
It has an annual installed capacity of 6,000MW. It has formed a tie-up with Alstom and an
alliance with Siemens to the manufacture of super-critical 800MW boilers and turbines.

State Bank of India - Recent Developments analysis by Motilal Oswal

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State Bank of India (SBI) is the largest commercial bank in India, with a balance sheet size of
over Rs7t. The bank, along with associate banks, has a network of over 14,000 branches
across India and controls over 18% of the banking business.
The government owns 57% of the bank, with FIIs owning 20% (maximum permissible is
20%).Over the last couple of years, SBI has been focusing on drawing significant synergies
through an internal consolidation of its associate banks.

Motilal Oswal puts Buy on Cummins India

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Cummins India (CIL), the largest engine manufacturer in India, is likely to post accelerated
growth over the next two years, led by improving demand in the domestic market and
strong rebound in exports on the back of increased outsourcing by its parent. Better
product mix, healthy pricing environment, stable commodity prices, and continuous cost
cutting initiatives will keep margins strong.

PTC India : Buy says Motilal Oswal

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PTC India Ltd. is the pioneer in power trading in India, and over the years has become
a Power Solutions company. It was set up in April 1999 with a mandate to catalyze
the development of large power projects by acting as a single buyer for PPAs with
independent power producers on one hand and by entering multi-partite PPAs with
users and SEBs under long-term arrangements on the other. The GoI has identified
PTC as its nodal agency for trading power with neighboring countries. For FY10 PTC
India has market share of 44% in ST Volumes.

Essel Propack Q2FY11 Result Update; BUY; Target: Rs 76 : Emkay

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Essel Propack
Target Rs1.0 bn net profit in FY12E, Maintain BUY


BUY

CMP: Rs 56                                       Target Price: Rs 76

n     Essel Propack (EPL) reports good performance in Q2FY11 – revenue growth at 19.8% yoy to Rs3.7 bn and APAT growth at 160% yoy to Rs206 mn
n     EPL reports Ebidta margins at 18.5%, highest in last 16 quarters and since EPL goes international
n     Progress in various geographies was on expected lines –with Amesa and EAP reported strong traction in the quarter and Americas and Europe reporting reduction of Ebit loss
n     Maintain earnings of Rs3.9/Share and Rs6.3/share, Maintain BUY with target price of Rs76/Share

Maruti Suzuki– 2QFY2011 Result Update: Angel Broking

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For 2QFY2011, Maruti recorded decent performance. The top line came in
marginally above our estimates, largely due to higher volume growth, while
bottom-line growth was lower due to contraction in EBITDA margin on a yoy
basis. Higher royalty charges and increased input costs hit Maruti’s operating
performance on a yoy basis. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock.

ICICI Bank -2QFY2011 Result Update: Angel Broking

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ICICI Bank’s net profit grew a healthy 18.9% yoy, which was above our estimates
mainly on account of higher NIMs and lower effective tax rate. The key positive of
the results was continuation of declining trend in net additions in gross NPAs from
retail loans (almost nil) for the sixth consecutive quarter and a substantial
reduction in NPA provisioning burden. We maintain a Buy on the stock.

ITC– 2QFY2011 Result Update: Angel Broking

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ITC posted a strong set of numbers for 2QFY2011 which were in line with
expectations. We estimate cigarette volumes declined ~1-2% for the quarter
albeit a sequential up-tick in volumes. Other key highlights of the results include –
1) double-digit sales and EBIT growth in cigarettes, 2) reduction in
non-cigarette FMCG business losses both yoy and qoq, and 3) 294bp margin
expansion in paperboards. We maintain Neutral view on the stock.

Forthcoming results: 4-Nov-10

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Company Name
Meeting Date
Purpose
SUPER SPINNING MILLS LIMITED
4-Nov-10
Un-audited Financial Results
KARUTURI GLOBAL LIMITED
4-Nov-10
Un-audited Financial Results
ICSA (INDIA) LIMITED
4-Nov-10
Results/Others
JAYSHREE TEA & INDUSTRIES LIMITED
4-Nov-10
Un-audited Financial Results
ENGINEERS INDIA LIMITED
4-Nov-10
Un-audited Financial Results
XL TELECOM & ENERGY LIMITED
4-Nov-10
Un-audited Financial Results
GOLDEN TOBACCO LIMITED
4-Nov-10
Un-audited Financial Results
POLYPLEX CORPORATION LIMITED
4-Nov-10
Un-audited Financial Results
RADAAN MEDIAWORKS INDIA LIMITED
4-Nov-10
Un-audited Financial Results
VIDEOCON INDUSTRIES LIMITED
4-Nov-10
Un-audited Financial Results
TELEDATA TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS LIMITED
4-Nov-10
Un-audited Financial Results
JUBILANT FOODWORKS LIMITED
4-Nov-10
Board meeting Rescheduled
WEBSOL ENERGY SYSTEMS LIMITED
4-Nov-10
Results/Others


Reliance Industries – 2QFY2011 Result Update:BUY:Angel Broking

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For 2QFY2011, RIL’s numbers was largely in line with our expectation on the
top-line, EBIDTA and bottom-line fronts. Key features during the quarter were
improved refining margins (US $7.9/bbl v/s US $6.0/bbl in 2QFY2010); an 8.3%
qoq decline in oil production to ~22,229bpd at the MA oilfields; and 77.9% qoq
decline in output at the Panna Mukta gas fields. We maintain a Buy on the stock.

HCC – 2QFY2011 Result Update :Angel Broking

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For 2QFY2011, HCC’s results were higher than our estimates primarily because
of the better-than-expected top-line and EBITDA margin growth leading to higher
bottom-line. We believe HCC’s stock performance depends on the Lavasa IPO,
which is expected to hit the markets in December this year, and is more of a realestate
play rather a construction story. This is also visible from the performance of
its parent, which has been registering flattish performance since the last 3-4
years. Further, we believe that management is too optimistic in its valuation for
Lavasa. Hence, we remain Neutral on the stock.

Colgate: Inline Q2FY11 - Healthy volume growth trends :: JPMorgan

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Colgate-Palmolive (India) Limited
Neutral
COLG.BO, CLGT IN
Inline Q2FY11 - Healthy volume growth trends maintained



• Q2FY11 earnings performance. Colgate reported 13%, 18% and 12% y/y
sales, EBITDA and earnings growth for Q2FY11. While sales growth was in
line with our expectations, earnings growth was impacted to some extent by
higher employee and other expenses as they include 6 month financials for CC
healthcare (earlier 75% subsidiary and now merged). Also employee costs
include one time provision related to actuarial valuation for gratuity.
• Healthy volume growth momentum maintained. Toothpaste vol growth was
strong at 12% during Q2FY11 even on a high base of 18% in Q2FY10. Clearly
Colgate’s efforts involving a combination of powerful marketing strategies,
significant step-up in differentiated consumption-building programs and rural
distribution reach are leading to such healthy vol growth trends. Overall volume
growth during the quarter was 13% with toothbrushes registering 24% vol
growth. Net sales value growth was also 13% implying that price/mix growth
was negligible on account of unfavorable product mix shift. Management noted
that rural market growth is 150-200bps higher than urban growth. Market share
gains continue with volume share during Jan-Sep’10 at 53.3% (+130bp y/y).
• A&P spends dip 4% y/y, COGS inflation setting in. Contrary to our
expectations, A&P spends were low during the quarter. This shows that Colgate
has been able to gain market share despite spending lower than the competition
on a relative basis. It is important to note that Colgate’s yearly initiative of Oral
Health Month is currently underway (Sep-Oct months) and we believe
marketing spends could likely pick up in Dec’10 qtr. During 1HFY11
A&P/Sales for Colgate stood at 13.7% (-100bp y/y). Management noted that
raw material cost pressures (particularly crude related/packaging costs and
flavors) have started to inch up sequentially.
• Key change in company’s strategy in recent months has been increased
focus on premiumisation and uptrading consumers towards premium oral
hygiene products like Colgate Total, Colgate Max Fresh, Colgate Sensitive in
toothpastes and Colgate Plax in Mouthwash segment (vol share in mouthwash
increased to 16.3% during Jan-Sep'10 vs 6.4% a year ago).
• Our view. In our view, Colgate will be able to maintain volume growth of 10-
12% over FY11-12E given its strong focus on scaling up distribution in
underpenetrated rural markets. Its strategy on growing the premium portfolio
bodes well for mix improvement (though results will be visible only over longer
term). Current valuations at 27x FY11E and 23x FY12E appear fair to us and we
maintain our Neutral stance.

Graphite India-- 2QFY2011 Result Update: Angel Broking

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For 2QFY2011, Graphite India (GIL) posted in-line top-line, which increased
16.0% yoy to `324cr (`279cr) on the back of the 48% yoy increase in sales
volumes. OPM for the quarter came in strong at 26.1% as graphite electrode
prices stabilised during the quarter. With the global steel industry showing signs of
revival, the company is well poised to benefit from the capacity expansion that it is
currently undertaking. At current levels, the stock is trading at 1.2x and 1.0x
FY2011E and FY2012E book value, respectively. We maintain a Buy on the stock.


Philips Carbon Black -2QFY2011 Result Update: Angel Broking

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For 2QFY2011, Philips Carbon Black (PCB) posted strong top-line growth of
51.1% yoy to `415cr (`275cr), driven mainly by a 29.0% increase in volumes.
This was in line with our estimate. However, the OPM for the quarter was
disappointing. OPM declined to 10.9% (18.9%), which was below our estimate of
15.0%, mainly due to lower margins in the power segment. However, interest
costs declined to `6.9cr. Consequently, PAT came in at `24cr (`32cr), 14% below
our estimate of `28cr. We remain positive on the company’s business outlook,
given the strong demand-supply scenario in the carbon black industry.

ONGC – 2QFY2011 Result Update: Angel Broking

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ONGC’s 2QFY2011 numbers were in line with our expectation on top-line front, while
it was lower than our expectation on the bottom-line front on account of higher DD&A
expenditure. On account of likely fuel reforms going ahead, we recommend an
Accumulate on ONGC.


Titan Industries: 2QFY11 Result Update:: Angel Broking

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For 2QFY2011, Titan Industries (Titan) reported stellar performance, which was
above our expectations. The company reported top-line growth of 34% yoy to
`1,536cr, backed by robust revenue performance by the jewellery and watches
segments, which grew by 37% yoy and 21% yoy, respectively. For the quarter,
EBITDA and PAT registered yoy growth of 60% to `174cr (`108cr) and 65% to
`128cr (`78cr), respectively. Operating margins stood at 11.3% (9.4%) during the
quarter. At current valuations, we believe the stock is fairly valued. Hence,
we continue to maintain our Neutral view on the stock.

Mahindra and Mahindra: 2QFY11 Result Update:: Angel Broking

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Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M) reported good results for 2QFY2011. Top-line
was in line, while operating performance and bottom-line beat our expectations
owing to better operating leverage and higher other income. We revise upwards
our estimates for the company factoring in the better-than-expected performance
on the operating front and higher other income. We remain positive and
overweight on M&M.

NMDC: 2QFY11 Result Update:: Angel Broking

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Higher realisations but lower sales volume: NMDC’s 2QFY2011 net revenue
increased by 77% yoy to `2,460cr but was down 2.3% qoq. The company’s sales
volume declined by 8.7% yoy and 20.3% qoq to 5.1mn tonnes as volume was
impacted by a) the monsoon season and b) ban on iron sales in Karnataka. While
domestic sales volume declined by 5.3% yoy and 25.3% qoq to 4.5mn tonnes,
export sales volume declined by 22.8% yoy to 0.7mn tonnes, though higher by
43.6% qoq. Average blended realisation for the quarter increased by 101.5% yoy
and 20% qoq to US $103/tonne. For 3QFY2011E, the company has cut its iron
ore export prices by ~13% qoq, domestic lumps prices by ~5% qoq and fines
prices by ~10% qoq. On the cost front, royalty charges on iron ore increased to
`200cr in 2QFY2011 as compared to `62cr in 2QFY2010 and `139cr in
1QFY2011. Further, freight cost increased by 69.4% yoy and 50.1% qoq to
`189cr. As a result, EBITDA margin expanded by 170bp yoy to 74.8% but fell by
664bp on a sequential basis. This resulted in EBITDA growing by 81.1% yoy to
`1,840cr, down 10.3% qoq. Consequently, net profit increased by 78.8% yoy to
`1,379cr, but down 8.3% qoq.


PTC India: 2QFY11 Result Update:: Angel Broking

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PTC’s 2QFY2011 standalone top line remained flat on a yoy basis at `2,469cr.
However, traded volumes, which are a better indicator of the company’s
performance, rose by 21% yoy to 7.7BU (6.4BU). Growth in trading volumes was
aided by higher generation in hydro plants due to good monsoons and increased
quantity traded under the long-term route. The company also indicated that it had
to lower the margins for the short-term trade (STT) route due to competitive
pressure, despite an increase in the cap on STT to 7paise/unit as against the
4paise/unit charged earlier. We maintain a Neutral view on the stock.

Grasim Industries: 2QFY11 Result Update:: Angel Broking

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For 2QFY2011, Grasim Industries (Grasim) witnessed 58.9% yoy de-growth in
consolidated net profit due to poor performance by its cement business
(represented by subsidiary, UltraTech), which reported top-line and operating
profit decline of 10.5% and 60.5% yoy, respectively. The VSF business posted
reasonably good operating profit of `273cr, albeit down 23%. The company has
completed acquisition of the UAE-based ETA Star (ETA) at US $140/tonne. We
have assigned the VSF business a higher multiple of 5.5x (5x earlier) over FY2012
estimates due better earnings visibility with demand likely to remain stable in the
short to medium term following fast recovery in the textile sector in emerging
markets coupled with decline in global cotton production. We upgrade the stock
to Accumulate from Neutral.

Idea Cellular: 2QFY11 Result Update:: Angel Broking

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No growth in revenue due to erosion in key performance indicators (KPIs): For
2QFY2011, Idea reported dismal numbers with revenue flat at `3,659cr (v/s our
estimate of `3,828cr), primarily on the back of tumbling minutes of usage (MOU)
and fall in average revenue per minute (ARPM). MOU dropped by 5% qoq to
394mins (v/s our estimate of 411mins). ARPM also slipped to `0.42/min with a
4.5% qoq decline (v/s our estimate of `0.43/min). Subscriber growth stood at
7.7% qoq, taking the overall subscriber base to 74.2mn. Average revenue per
user (ARPU) slipped by 8.2% qoq to `167 (v/s our estimate of `178).

Coal India, Gravita, Power Grid IPO: Gray Market Premium Price: 3rd Nov, 2010

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Company Name
Offer Price
Premium
(Rs.)
(Rs.)
Coal India
245 
(Upper Band)
30 to 34
+  5% discount for retail
Gravita India
120 to 125
32 to 34
Power Grid FPO
80 to 90 (rumor)
4 to 6

Clients, NRI, Proprietary:: Categories Turnover 3/11/10

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(Rs. crore)
Clients
Trade Date
Buy
Sales
Net
3/11/2010
3,308.18
3,309.50
-1.32
2/11/2010
3,173.53
3,262.29
-88.75
1/11/2010
1,453.14
1,489.35
-36.21
Nov , 10
7,934.85
8,061.14
-126.28
Since 1/1/10
694,940.69
705,654.80
-10,714.10
(Rs. crore)
NRI
Trade Date
Buy
Sales
Net
3/11/2010
1.83
3.26
-1.43
2/11/2010
2.3
2.37
-0.07
1/11/2010
2.41
1.74
0.67
Nov , 10
6.53
7.36
-0.83
Since 1/1/10
590.39
512.72
77.67
(Rs. crore)
Proprietary
Trade Date
Buy
Sales
Net
3/11/2010
1,008.41
992.29
16.11
2/11/2010
1,107.39
1,072.24
35.15
1/11/2010
344.16
306.23
37.93
Nov , 10
2,459.96
2,370.77
89.19
Since 1/1/10
206,936.25
204,726.80
2,209.44