FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 06-Oct-2010

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 06-Oct-2010
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	46577	1449.30	37458	1163.34	504649	15686.51	285.96
INDEX OPTIONS	109676	3366.29	92107	2806.39	1905768	58950.36	559.90
STOCK FUTURES	42101	1369.91	77470	2487.30	1380552	42771.56	-1117.39
STOCK OPTIONS	16854	601.68	17298	613.92	22925	770.56	-12.24
						TOTAL	-283.78

FII & DII trading activity on NSE and BSE as on 06-Oct-2010

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment

The following is combined FII trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by FIIs on 06-Oct-2010.

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 06-Oct-2010 4861.39 3018.95 1842.44

 

Domestic Institutional Investors trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment

The following is combined Domestic Institutional Investors trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by Banks, DFIs, Insurance, MFs and New Pension System on 06-Oct-2010.

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 06-Oct-2010 1724.02 2700.48 -976.46

 

MS Advisory and PMS: IPO Recommendations: AVOID Oberoi realty and BS TransComm

MS Advisory and PMS:

IPO Recommendations: AVOID Oberoi realty and BS TransComm

both are high priced.... limited chance of listing gains

AVOID both

Morgan Stanley Research: India strategy, Sept quarter preview

India Strategy
QE Sep-10 Earnings
Preview: Moderation in
Earnings Growth Momentum
Quick Comment: MS analysts forecast 7% YoY
growth for 108 companies: This compares with a
decline of 4% YoY in QEJun-10. Excluding govt.-owned
oil companies, earnings are forecast to rise 13% YoY
versus 27% growth in QEJun-10. They expect BSE
Sensex earnings to increase 12% YoY vs. 13% growth
in QE Jun-10.
Margin compression in 5 out of ten sectors: MS
analysts expect aggregate revenues to grow 18% YoY
with flat YoY EBITDA margins. Ex- the oil companies,
EBITDA margins will likely rise 42bps. Five out of the 10
sectors are likely to see margin expansion led by
industrials and financials. Our analysts expect strong
earnings growth for industrials (ex-Tata Motors earnings
up 33% YoY) followed by metals companies (up 24%
YoY), whereas telecoms and energy earnings are likely
to be the weakest for the third consecutive quarter.
Key observations about our analysts’ forecasts: a)
Depreciation expenses are up 36% YoY, they rose 24%
in 1QF2011, b) Net financial income is down 92% YoY
(exceptions are materials and technology) vs. a net
financial expense in 1QF2011. This is creating pressure
on net margins and, thus, a third of our coverage
universe is likely to report a drop in net profits YoY
(compared to a fourth in the previous quarter). That said,
nearly a third of the companies will likely report profit
growth in excess of 25%. Earnings growth dispersion is
a key driver for sector performance in the coming
months, in our view. Earnings growth breadth is still not
back to its previous peaks even as earnings have
crossed their previous highs.
Broad market likely to beat narrow market for the 6th
consecutive quarter: The June quarter marked a new
high for the narrow and broad market earnings. We think
that a sequential decline in earnings growth is in the
offing due to the base effect and is consistent with our
earnings growth leading indicator.

IPO allotment for Orient Green Power Company

Click here for IPO allotment for Orient Green Power Company

IPO--Ramky Infrastructure allotment details

Click here for Ramky Infrastructure allotment details


retail got all shares applied for

IPO allotment Details for Electro Steel

CLICK here for IPO allotment Details for Electro Steel

RBS upgrades Tata Motors to buy

Tata Motors: Equity fund raising nears end
Given  the  74%  equity  expansion  since  the  JLR  buyout,  our  concerns  about
further dilution have been lessened. Consolidated automotive net debt-to-equity
is  now  123%  and  should  support  new  product  launches  as  JLR  enters  a
seasonally-strong period. Upgrade to Buy with 20% upside potential.


Our concerns over repeated equity dilution ease as fund raising nears end
Since its leveraged buyout of JLR in April 2008, Tata Motors has repeatedly diluted equity to
reduce consolidated debt-to-equity (D/E) from a peak of 600%. With the recent qualified
institutional placement (QIP) of US$750m, total equity dilution since the acquisition is 74%,
reducing consolidated automotive net D/E to a healthy 123% and consolidated net D/E to
174%, offering credit rating benefits in the form of lower interest costs.
With subsidiary JLR entering seasonally strong period, we upgrade our PAT forecasts
The premium car industry enters its strong seasonal period in September, as reflected in
recent positive statements made by sector leaders BMW and Daimler. Our European auto
analyst remains positive on the premium segment’s prospects within the global industry,
which, coupled with JLR’s aggressive product launch plan, prompts us to raise our FY11-12
PAT forecasts for this unit by 31-39%. For the parent, aggressive commercial vehicle price
hikes, given emission norm upgrades, should offset the slow ramp-up in its car volumes.
Upgrade to Buy as our major concern is put to rest; business environment positive
As we raise our FY11-12 consolidated PAT forecasts by 21-27% and feel our key concern
over D/E is being addressed, we upgrade our rating on the stock to Buy with a target price of
Rs1,332.5, implying 20% upside potential. Incorporating higher market values for peer
comparators: we raise the value of Tata’s subsidiaries to Rs446.5 from Rs278.4, with JLR
accounting for most of the increase. In our calculations, JLR’s per share value almost
doubles to Rs451.2 as explained on page 5. For the parent, its three-stage DCF-based value
increases to Rs886 from Rs781 given its strong pricing power in commercial vehicles. At our
target price, Tata Motors’ consolidated valuation would be 6.5x FY12F EV/EBITDA. Key risks
are the impact of currency volatility on JLR’s profitability, a rise in crude prices or the global
economic outlook weighing on automobile demand.

Anand Rathi: Mumbai Property - The old order changeth, yielding place to new

Mumbai Property - The old order changeth, yielding place to new

Mumbai-based developers would continue witnessing high profits over the next 3-5 years given: i) low ready-inventory in the market, ii) high demand, iii) lower land cost vs high margins, iv) low execution due to regulations. Given the city’s unique geography and dense population (in slum areas, chawls), acquisitions via the rehabilitation/redevelopment mode will give access to prime land at low cost, with the older construction giving way to large areas for new projects (higher FSI). Although we expect slight correction in the next 3-4 months, we believe inflation-adjusted prices would remain stable in the long term(4-5 years). We have an Overweight stance on the sector.

n       Land limited, area unlimited. Due to its tight geography, Mumbai market has limited land; however, its old constructions viz. slums, chawls, cessed buildings are opening up for redevelopment (higher FSI) via slum rehab schemes (SRS) and urban renewal schemes (URS), thereby freeing up land for organised development. Such projects involve lower (and deferred) acquisition costs, leading to higher profits for developers.

n       Residential demand high. With an estimated 1.2% population CAGR over the next decade, demand would remain strong owing to Mumbai continuing to attract commercial activity and, hence, high immigration, for which +300m sqft of residential space will be required. Although we do not expect a major price correction, we believe prices will soften on account of affordability concerns in the near-term. Inflation-adjusted stable prices over the next few years are likely to lead to volumes, given healthy economic growth. We are positive on central suburbs and Bandra (E) and expect them to outperform vis-à-vis other micro-markets.

n       Stock ideas. We favour HDIL (on execution & location skills) and Ackruti City (on niche developments). We initiate coverage with Buy on DB Realty, Orbit Corp, Peninsula Land and Sunteck Realty.

n       Risks. i) Economic slowdown ii) Regulatory risks iii) De-coupling of MMR from Mumbai City.

Edelweiss: Manappuram General Fin & Leasing (Capital raise key to high growth)

Manappuram General Fin & Leasing (Capital raise key to high growth): Manappuram General Finance’s (MGFL) business of providing retail loans against used household gold jewellery is growing at triple-digit rates, thanks to the management’s enterprise and under-penetration of institutional small credit in India. With a business model that ensures 30% RoE with sub-1% NPA, execution issues in scale-up are the only challenge, as long as flow of capital to support this growth remains. MGFL’s ex-issue P/B of 9.1x on FY10 translates to what we view as a reasonable 3.6x FY11ii post-issue multiple, if its proposed Rs10bn issue is successful. If the issue falls through for any reason, the company faces impaired loan growth and a significant price correction.

Edelweiss: Oberoi Realty (INR 253-260, Subscribe)

Oberoi Realty (INR 253-260, Subscribe)

Oberoi Realty (Oberoi) is tapping the capital market to raise ~INR 10.0-10.3 bn through an IPO in the price range of INR 253–260 per share, giving post-money valuation of INR 83-85 bn. As per the issue terms, 39.6 mn shares will be issued, resulting in dilution of 12%.

n  Strong presence in Mumbai, the crème of Indian real estate

Oberoi is established in Mumbai, with over 90% of its land bank in the suburbs and city. It is currently developing ~20.3 msf across 24 projects. Some of Oberoi’s key projects in the city are Oberoi Garden City (11.2 msf) in Goregaon, Oberoi Splendor (3.1 msf) inAndheri, Oasis (2.1 msf) in Worli and Oberoi Exotica (3.2 msf) in Mulund.

n  Experienced promoters with track record of timely execution

The company’s promoters are active in the real estate industry since 1983. As on June 30, 2010, the promoters and promoter group have collectively developed 33 projects covering ~5 msf of saleable area. Completed projects include landmark projects such as Oberoi Springs and Oberoi Sky Heights in Andheri (West); and Oberoi Woods, Oberoi Mall, and The Westin Hotel in Goregaon (East).

n  Financially strong with debt free balance sheet

Oberoi has kept its balance sheet in check and is focused on maintaining a lean land bank. Its construction costs are largely funded through internal accruals in the form of pre-sales and rental income from marquee properties. As on June 30, 2010, Oberoi has a debt free balance sheet with net cash of ~INR 3.7 bn.

n  Valuation: Fairly priced; ‘SUBSCRIBE’ with long-term view

We have factored in Oberoi’s cash flow from ~20 msf over 8-9 years and discounted it with WACC of 14%. Our NAV for the company stands at INR 91.7 bn or INR 279/share at the lower price band. Residential projects of ~12.3 msf account for ~51% of the company’s GAV, commercial/retail projects of 5.4 msf (including rent-yielding properties) 43% of GAV, with the balance accounted for by hospitality/social infrastructure projects. At the lower price band, the stock is available at 9% discount to NAV. We believe that the issue is fairly priced, taking into account the company’s current land bank. However, possible redeployment of cash for new land acquisitions may offer upsides to the NAV. We, therefore, recommend ‘SUBSCRIBE’ to the IPO at the lower price band, keeping in mind the long-term prospects.

HSBC: BHEL- Deceleration in growth- Downgrade to SELL

BHEL- Deceleration in growth
 Order execution to pick up in interim (c22% in FY12e vs. c19% in
FY10), but order inflows to decelerate to c6% in FY11-17e
 Earnings growth to slow to c5% in FY13-17e from c30% in FY07-
12e; competition from domestic and foreign suppliers to increase
 Downgrade to UW from OW; lower our TP to INR2,300 from
INR2,850


Investment summary
Execution remains key as order growth slows
and competition kicks in
While we expect significant capacity additions in
the power sector over the next 5-10 years, we
expect the yearly run-rate of capacity addition to
stabilize at c17GW per annum. This, in our
opinion, will depress the y-o-y growth in BHEL’s
power equipment orders relative to the growth
seen in the last five years (order intake has gone
up from c3.4GW in FY06 to c16.5GW in FY10).
Hence, in the near term (i.e. over the next 2
years), we believe that the execution of its
currently sizeable order book will remain key for
BHEL to achieve the expected earnings growth.
Additionally, in the longer term, we expect
competition to kick in and pose an incremental
challenge to BHEL as some of the new entrants to
the BTG segment, such as L&T (4GW) and
Thermax (3GW), are currently adding a
significant amount of capacity and will compete
with BHEL as suppliers of power equipment.
Hence, although the outlook for the power sector,
including both utilities and suppliers, remains
robust, the future of BHEL will depend a lot on its
ability to step-up in terms of execution, especially as
the competition is lurking just around the corner.
Currently, our FY11-12 estimates assume that
BHEL will indeed ramp up its order execution
rate to 12-13GW of BTG equipments over the
next two years compared to c5.2GW
commissioned in FY10. However, we remain
cautious on FY13e, where we are c6-7% below
consensus on sales and EPS. We note that
historically, power capacity addition in any fiveyear
plan has always been back-end loaded and
we expect this trend to persist going forward.
Hence at BHEL, we expect a downward step
change in order execution and the annual
deliveries during FY13 and FY14 (i.e. for the first
two years of the 12th five-year plan), before the
momentum picks up again in FY15-17.

JPMorgan: Godrej Consumer - Management Meeting Highlights

Key takeaways from our recent meeting with senior management of GCPL:
• Mixed performance of domestic personal care business. While revenue
growth for soaps will be sluggish in Q2FY11 on account of inventory
correction (at wholesaler end), growth for hair colors will benefit from
c10% price hike undertaken in Q1FY11. While price increases have been
initiated in soaps category by market leader HUL (and GCPL is evaluating
potential price hikes currently), management noted that competitive intensity
still remains quite stiff in the mass end with brand spends being above
normative levels.
• Household Insecticide business on a strong footing. Higher incidence of
mosquito-borne diseases this monsoon has led to increased offtake of
insecticides. GHPL has been a key beneficiary of this trend and has
witnessed market share gains in the category. Recent launches like Good
Knight low smoke coils and Good Knight Naturals mosquito repellent cream
have seen encouraging consumer response as per management.
• Operational integration between GHPL and GCPL underway; cost
savings to reflect in FY12 earnings. Management expects very strong
synergistic advantages between leveraging GCPL and GHPL’s strengths for
faster top-line growth, which is expected to lead to higher margin growth.
While some of the savings on distribution and procurement front are
expected to accrue in Q4FY11, mgmt expects tremendous benefit in FY12
from this exercise.
• International business updates. Management expects Keyline to register
sluggish growth on account of weak economic enviornment in UK and lower
sales for hand sanitizers. South African operations of Kinky witnessed
subdued growth in Q2FY11 as there was short term sales disruption at retail
stores due to violence on account of municipal employee strike in the
country. Mgmt was more sanguine on growth prospects for Indonesian
(Megasari) and Latin American (Issue and Argencos) where they anticipate
15-20% sales growth with potential to scale up margins. ROCEs for
Megasari, Issue and Argencos range between 25-30% (lower compared to
domestic business primarily on account of +ve WC cycle).
• GCPL will explore various potential cross-border product sharing
synergies to leverage on its product portfolio across various markets. Key
opportunities that may be evaluated over next 6-9 months include: 1)
Introduce Stella air freshners from Megasari in India (as Ambipur brand is
handed over to P&G), 2) Introduce cream hair color sachet technology from
Argencos in India, and 3) Leverage on distribution network of Tura in
Nigeria to introduce HH Insecticides and hair colors.
• Maintain Neutral. Current valuations at 27x FY11E and 22x FY12E offer
limited room for upside. Performance of recent acquisitions will be critical,
particularly in light of limited disclosures on financials; risk emanates from
potential further commitments for inorganic growth, unfavorable F/X rate
movement (overseas debt is unhedged) and increase in interest costs.

Prabhudhas Liladhar: Oberoi Realty - IPO Note - 'Clean Deal' - Subscribe

Oberoi Realty               Subscribe                    Price Band: Rs253 to 260

IPO Note - Clean Deal

n  About the company: Oberoi Realty is a Mumbai focused company, with current land bank of 20.25m sq.ft which it is likely to monetize over the next 5-6 years. As of June 30, 2010, the company, along with the Promoter and Promoter Group, has completed 33 projects, covering approximately 5m sq.ft of saleable area spread across Mumbai.

n  Premium, destination developments: Oberoi Realty has premium developments and focuses on destination development; this includes a mix of residential, commercial, retail, hospitality and social infrastructure. Of its current land bank, the company’s focus is on Goregaon, Andheri (East), Mulund and Worli which enables it to have a strong hold over these areas and customise products as per the needs of that particular area.

n  Mix of sale and lease model: Oberoi Realty adopts a sale model for its residential projects and a lease model for its commercial and hospitality projects, giving it a good mix of monetization of land, along with stable annuity income. The company has leased out space of 0.97m sq.ft on its books.

n  Zero-debt position: Oberoi Realty has an extremely strong balance sheet position as it has no debt on its books. Networth stands at Rs19.4bn, while the cash on its books in March 2010 stands at Rs3.6bn. Post the issue, networth shall be ~Rs30bn which could enable it to raise debt to the tune of Rs15bn, considering a DER of 0.5. In addition to this, the company will raise Rs10bn through the offering along with the cash of Rs3.6bn on its books. On the whole, the company will have access to ~Rs28-30bn. Of the IPO proceeds, Rs7.5bn are to be used for construction activities and the balance ~Rs20bn can be used as growth capital to increase its land bank.

n  Financials & Valuations: Company revenues have grown from Rs0.8bn in FY06 to Rs7.8bn in FY10, with strong EBITDA margins ranging between 44-60%. In the last three fiscals, profits have been above Rs2.5bn levels, with FY10 at Rs4.5bn.

As per our rough-cut valuations, the company’s post-money NAV stands at Rs281/share. At the lower end of the band, the issue is priced at 10% discount to the NAV, while the upper end is at 7.5% discount. We recommend ‘Subscribe’

Edelweiss research on Unichem Laboratories

Unichem Laboratories (UL IN, INR 535, Not Rated)

We recently met the management of Unichem Laboratories (Unichem). Key highlights of the discussion are summarised below:

n  Potential new contracts to buoy steady business

Unichem’s medium-term growth strategy remains intact, with reasonable traction in domestic formulations (72% of FY10 sales) and scale up in the US business.  The company’s current negotiation for additional CRAMs contracts could materialise by Q4FY11, contributing 20% to potential FY10 revenues. FY11 revenue growth will be led by domestic branded formulation growth (15% Y-o-Y), with muted outlook for Niche subsidiary (10% of revenues) and single-digit growth in other external sales.

n  Healthy EBITDA margin impacted by losses in subsidiaries

Unichem’s standalone EBITDA margins of 26% are healthy and higher than most peers, reflecting the profitability of domestic franchise. This is, however, offset by losses in international subsidiaries, which has negatively impacted FY10 margins by 300-400bps. In the near term, margins could be adversely affected by increased costs from field force ramp up and commercialisation of new facilities. The impact will, however, be capped to some extent by marginal gains in subsidiaries. Newer contracts could likely have lower margins than company average.

n  Strength of balance sheet a key positive

Unichem is a zero debt company and has positive free cash flows. Moreover, it expects to fund its estimated ~INR 1.5 bn capex over FY11-13 through internal accruals only. The zero leverage strategy offers stability to operations, and positive operating cash flows give headroom for expansion. The company has ROCE of 26% and ROE of 24% in FY10.

n  Outlook and valuations: Strong fundamentals; ‘Not Rated’

At current CMP of INR 535, the stock is trading at 16x FY10 and 11x FY12E EPS (based on consensus EPS estimate of INR 48 per share).

IIFL : Economy Front Page

Economy Front Page:

- The government plans to relax the bidding norms for the coming ninth round of auctioning of oil and gas blocks under NELP, as the previous round of auctioning failed to generate much interest. (BS)

- With the Commonwealth Games not fetching many customers and the government releasing a large part of the inventory it had earlier reserved for the event, hotel room rates are on a decline in Delhi. (BS)

- Private equity (PE) firms invested about US$2,047mn across 88 deals during the quarter ended September 2010, according to a study by Venture Intelligence, a Chennai-based research firm focused on private equity and M&A transaction activity in India. (BS)

- Government is working on a proposal to open a new overseas borrowing window for Indian corporates enabling them to raise up to US$1bn annually exclusively for infrastructure projects. (ET)

- Foreign direct investment in the country's services sector almost halved to US$1.08bn in the first four months of the fiscal. (ET)

- The government will launch the ninth round of auction under the New Exploration Licensing Policy (Nelp) for the oil and gas sector next week. (FE) 

IIFL-Corporate Front Page

Corporate Front Page:

- Reliance Industries is finalising a new alliance with engineering and project management partner Bechtel Corporation, as it prepares to enter the power sector. (BS)

- The Jharkhand government has rejected forest clearance for a railway link being planned for evacuation of coal from the North Karanpura coalfield operated by Coal India. (BS)

- Israel-based pharma company, SoluBest, has entered into collaboration with Dr Reddy's Laboratories to develop a technological platform for solving the problem of drug insolubility. (BL)

- Bajaj Auto may hike prices of its two and three-wheeler range. (BL)

- Tata Motors is starting open sales of its people's car, the Nano, following the wrapping-up of deliveries to select customers. (BL)

- To grab a share of the Rs12bn instant noodle category, the tobacco to FMCG major ITC plans to venture into the segment with Sunfeast Yippee, instant noodles. (BL)

- In the first half of the current fiscal, SAIL's Rourkela Steel Plant produced 0.98mt of saleable steel recording 2% growth over the same period of last year and 1.049mt of crude steel. (BL)

- Axis Bank plans to sell as much as US$200mn of commercial paper. (FE)

- GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare has revamped its flagship Horlicks brand and expects to maintain its leadership position at 52% (market share) this fiscal. (ET)

- GlaxoSmithkline Consumer Healthcare is in the process of finalising the quantum of price hike in the health food drinks segment. (FE)

- IVRCL Assets & Holdings Ltd has approved issue of equity shares on a preferential basis for cash at a price of Rs129 a share, aggregating Rs1.5bn to Unit Trust of India Investment Advisory Services Ltd, for its Ascent India Fund III. (BL)

- A tax demand of Rs5.7bn has been raised on Mahindra Satyam for illegally claiming tax credit on fictitious income during 2003-04 to 2008-09. (FE)

- Government approved the divestment of its 10% stake in Shipping Corporation of India and allowed the company to issue fresh equity of 10% of the paid-up capital. (FE)

- JSL Stainless said it has increased the proposed investment on phase-II development of its Orissa plant to Rs64bn to augment production capacity to 1 mt per annum. (ET)

- Ansal Properties and Infrastructure Ltd has raised US$52mn through private placement of shares to institutional investors. (FE)

- Godrej Properties has signed a development agreement for a 1.35-acre plot in Chembur. (ET)

- Vedanta Resources has won the bauxite mining bid for Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation. (ET)

Emkay: Techcheck Daily: Aban breaks out, 980-1000 in store

Techcheck Daily

Aban breaks out, 980-100 in store

n     Chart of the Day: Aban Offshore, stock breaks out from a falling channel should target 980-1000

n     Nifty a break past 6223 would mean the rally could extend till 6300

n     Bank Nifty should continue its move towards 13000-13300

n     Stocks with positive short term bias

n     Aban Offshore, Andhra Bank, BHEL, Infosys, ICICI Bank, Maruti, GIC Hsg, IDBI, L&T

n     Stocks with negative short term bias

n     Idea, OMCs

  

Morgan Stanley Research:Exide Industries: Growth and Visibility Deserve Premium

Exide Industries: Growth and Visibility Deserve Premium: Overweight
Best way to play expanding India Auto space – 17%
upside potential: We expect Exide shares to continue
benefiting from strong battery demand in India. Our
Rs193 price target implies 17% upside from current
levels. Having increased its earnings at a 47%
compound annual rate in the past five years, Exide will
achieve a 25% earnings CAGR in FY10-13, we forecast.
We favor Exide for three reasons:
1. Best way to play auto consumption theme:
Given India’s 15 million car base, 80mn twowheeler
base and 15/20% projected growth, the
automotive battery segment should see strong
demand. We prefer to play the auto growth
story with Exide rather than OEMs, as it has
less competition and a better earnings profile
with higher margins and ROEs. Exide’s pan
India presence, relationships across OEMs,
and dominant market share should make it a
major beneficiary of such industry growth.
2. Backward integration to boost margins:
Exide currently sources 45% of its lead – the
key raw material for batteries – from captive
smelters and aims to raise this proportion to
70% by FY13. As captive lead is 10-12%
cheaper than externally procured lead is,
Exide’s margins should benefit accordingly.
3. High earnings visibility: Exide generates 36%
of its revenues from the auto battery
replacement market, where demand remains
steady; for instance, in FY09, replacement
demand rose 18% even as OEM sales fell 3%.
Valuation: Our sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis yields
a price target of Rs193 for Exide. We value the core
business at 17x our FY12 EPS estimate, which we think
is justified by the rapid growth in the battery industry and
Exide’s strong brand and market share.