FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 05-Oct-2010

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 05-Oct-2010
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	31454	975.44	54884	1700.45	527346	16312.03	-725.01
INDEX OPTIONS	87056	2651.89	80580	2430.43	1879591	57758.75	221.46
STOCK FUTURES	39610	1211.08	75520	2387.54	1342167	41249.53	-1176.45
STOCK OPTIONS	12892	448.29	13774	472.60	21415	706.87	-24.30
						Total	-1704.30

 

FII & DII trading activity on NSE and BSE as on 05-Oct-2010.

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment

The following is combined FII trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by FIIs on 05-Oct-2010.

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 05-Oct-2010 4243.32 3572.2 671.12

Domestic Institutional Investors trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment The following is combined Domestic Institutional Investors trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by Banks, DFIs, Insurance, MFs and New Pension System on 05-Oct-2010. DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 05-Oct-2010 1021.72 1824.67 -802.95

Emkay recommends Aurobindo Pharma : Geared to enter a billion dollar club

Aurobindo Pharma

Geared to enter a billion dollar club

BUY

CMP: Rs 1,066                                       Target Price: Rs 1,242

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n     Hyderabad SEZ facility becomes operational, capacity to ramp-up substantially by FY11E

n     Higher capacity utilization and entry into niche segments will lead to margin improvement

n     Tie up for ECB loan of US$125mn will considerably reduce the leverage risk on FCCBs

n     Deal with Astrazeneca covers 25 oral solid and sterile products across 40 countries, supplies to commence by end of FY12E     

n     The company has envisioned a mission to be US$2bn company by FY14E, implying FY10-14E revenue CAGR of ~26%

CEBBCO IPO subscribed 2x; HNI and retail avoid!!

COMMERCIAL ENGINEERS & BODY BUILDERS CO LTD

Total Issue Size	11324938
Total Bids Received	23433630
Total Bids Received at Cut-off Price	1327315
No. of times issue is subscribed	2.07

Sr.No.	Category	No.of shares offered/reserved	No. of shares bid for	No. of times of total meant for the category
1	Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs)	5817503	21386970	3.68
1(a)	Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs)		18246470
1(b)	Domestic Financial Institutions(Banks/ Financial Institutions(FIs)/ Insurance Companies)		0
1(c)	Mutual Funds		3140500
1(d)	Others		0
2	Non Institutional Investors	1376859	464420	0.34
2(a)	Corporates		314655
2(b)	Individuals (Other than RIIs)		149765
2(c)	Others		0
3	Retail Individual Investors (RIIs)	4130576	1582240	0.38
3(a)	Cut Off		1327315
3(b)	Price Bids		254925

Updated as on 05 October 2010 at 1730 hrs

United Spirits – BUY says IIFL

Margin tailwinds gather more steam
Visibility of a sustained reduction in ethanol prices has improved with the first advance estimates of
the government projecting 17% YoY increase in sugarcane output. We estimate ethanol supply will
exceed demand by c400m litres in 2011, despite an increase in ethanol blending with petrol. Surplus
ethanol left over from 2010, would further add to supply. As a result, ethanol prices will likely remain
benign over FY11-12 driving 450bps EBITDA margin expansion for United Spirits (USL) over FY10-12.
An increase in marketing spends would only marginally offset the raw-material cost savings. We
increase our EPS estimates for FY11-13 by 4-6% and revise our target price to Rs1,705. Retain BUY.
Ethanol supply will exceed demand: We estimate ethanol production of 3,500m litres in FY11, as
compared to 3,000m litres in FY10. However, demand in FY11 is likely to be just over 3,000m litres, even
after factoring in 900m litres for blending with petrol (additional 500m litres over FY10). The surplus carried
forward from FY10 would also add to supply. USL’s cost of wet goods has already decreased from
Rs150/case in FY10 to Rs135/case at present. With the crushing season starting in November, this cost
could see further decline in the near term.
Sharp expansion in EBITDA margin over FY10-12, despite possible increase in marketing spends:
We expect EBITDA margin to expand by 450bps over FY10-12, despite a 50bps increase in marketing spends.
Cheaper brands will likely increase trade margins, thus forcing USL to also increase marketing spends.
2QFY11 results likely to be strong: We expect USL to report strong volume growth of c15% YoY in
2QFY11, driven by a volume bounce-back in Andhra Pradesh (USL’s largest contributing state). Volumes in
the state had declined in 1QFY11, on account of retail licence renewal. EBITDA margin will also significantly
expand, as the raw-material cost per case would likely be lower by c10% YoY.

JPMorgan: Bharti Airtel -- Africa: more challenges than reflected

In this note we provide comprehensive feedback from our meetings with
Bharti's competitors in Nigeria, the regulator, infrastructure providers, tower
companies and others. We believe that Bharti in Africa will likely face more
challenges over the next 1-2 years than is being currently factored in, though
we continue to believe that the longer term growth potential in the market is
strong. We remain Neutral on Bharti within our cautious stance on the sector.
• Operational challenges aplenty: A poor electrical grid, security issues,
expense relating to expats and equipment issues translate into higher capital
and operating costs, suggesting little room for efficiency gains. Our sense
from conversations with most industry players is that Bharti may be
underestimating these challenges.
• Competition big and eager: Pricing has moved in several countries already
(Etisalat Nigeria, VOD Ghana, Warid Uganda, all in Kenya), while others
are ready to respond to Bharti. In Nigeria, relative to Bharti/Zain, MTN’s
revenue is 3x larger, its network is 1.5-2x bigger, distribution is its
advantage and it is well placed to invest more if required. Etisalat (#4) is
eager to protect/grow share in our view. On a positive note, usage is low in
Nigeria (1/3rd vs. Ghana) and elasticity is improving (~1 currently).
• Higher capex potential till infrastructure sharing matures: Tower
sharing conversations are becoming more common in Nigeria which we
believe is positive for Bharti. However, we expect this to take time to
mature, since MTN, for strategic reasons, currently prefers a barter system
or rural expansion opportunities.
• Market growth expected: On data, while it is still early days in Nigeria, we
expect lower access charges, better user experience and declining handset
prices to drive strong growth in the next few years.
• Forecast changes: We reduce our already conservative FY11/12E Bharti
Africa revenue by 2%/3% and EBITDA margin by 150bp/210bp. We also
reduce our Q2FY11 estimates slightly for the India business. The impact on
consolidated FY11/FY12 EPS is -6%/-5%.

Motilal Oswal: TATA MOTORS: Sep-10 volumes below estimates

TATA MOTORS: Sep-10 volumes below estimates; Up 23% YoY (~2% MoM decline) to 64,668 units; Buy 

-          Total volumes grew by 23% YoY (~1.9% MoM decline) to 64,668 units (v/s est 77,800 units), driven largely by CVs.

-          Domestic CV portfolio grew 13% YoY (~0.4% MoM) to 35,734 units driven by 28% YoY (~12% MoM) growth in M&HCV volumes and 3.5% YoY growth (~7.9% MoM decline) in LCV volumes. CV volumes are below our estimates of 46,000 unit (including exports).

-          Domestic car volumes grew by 30% YoY (~7.8% MoM decline) to 20,561 units, driven by strong demand for Indigo range. While Indica range sales de-grew by 37% YoY to 6,258 units, Indigo range sales grew by 248% YoY to 8,783 units due to encouraging response to recently launched Manza. Nano volumes were disappointing at 5,520 units (v/s 8,103 units in Aug-10 and 9,000 units in Jul-10).

-          UVs grew 39.7% YoY (~15% MoM decline) to 3,316 units.

-          Exports improved 76.6% YoY (~1.9% MoM decline) to 5,057 units. We await break-up of exports.

-          Tata Motors has raised prices of CVs by Rs40,000 and cars by Rs14,000 to pass on higher RM costs on account of BS III norm implementation from Oct-10.

-          We will revisit our volume assumptions, especially for cars. Our estimates factor in volume growth of 31% in FY11 (implying residual monthly run rate of 82,795 units, residual growth of 26%), 270bp increase in RM cost and further improvement in JLR performance (~14.0% EBITDA margins in FY11 and 13.8% in FY12).

-          The stock trades at 9x FY11E consolidated EPS of Rs120.5 and 7.8x FY12E consolidated EPS of Rs140.6, and normalized PE (adj. for capitalization) of 17x FY11E and 12.8x FY12E. Maintain Buy.

Motilal Oswal: MARUTI SUZUKI: Sep-10 volumes above estimates

MARUTI SUZUKI: Sep-10 volumes above estimates; Highest ever at 108,006 (+29.6% YoY, 3.1% MoM); Buy

-          Maruti's Sep-10 volumes are above estimates with 29.6% YoY growth (~3.1% MoM) to 108,006 units (v/s est 103,000 units). This is driven by 33% YoY growth in domestic volumes and 10% growth in exports.

-          Domestic volumes grew 33% YoY (~2.7% MoM) to 95,148 units (v/s est 92,000 units). Volume growth in domestic market was driven by newly launched Eeco (C segment grew by 67% YoY) as well as recently launched Alto K-10.

-          Inventory build-up at est 3.5-4 weeks at end Sep-10 (v/s 3 weeks in Aug-10) ahead of festive season is due to very strong retail demand.

-          While C segment volumes grew 67% YoY (-2.4% MoM), both A2 and A3 segment witnessed robust growth of 31% YoY (~4.5% MoM) and 43% YoY (flat MoM).

-          Recently launched Alto K-10 has received strong response and contributes ~40-45% of total Alto volumes.

-          Export volumes were above estimates at 12,858 units (v/s est 11,000), a growth of 10% (~6% MoM), led by recent launch of A-Star in non-European markets.Non-EU markets now accounts for ~50% of exports.

-          Volume growth in domestic market will remain robust driven by strong retail demand and launch of Alto-K10 as well as re-launch of Wagon-R CNG and other CNG fitted vehicles (Alto 800, Eeco, Estilo and SX4) in 2^nd week of September.

-          Its volumes would get further boost driven by additional 10,000/month capacity addition through de-bottlenecking from Oct-10. Further, it is focusing on preponing commissioning of brownfield expansion of 0.25m cars at Manesar by 3QFY12 and another 0.25m cars by 4QFY12.

-          We model FY11 volume growth of 22% to 1.24m units (v/s guidance of 1.2m), with domestic volume growth of 26% and export volume de-growth of 2%, implying residual monthly run rate of 107,473 units (v/s 99,496 units in FY11YTD) and a residual growth of 18% vs 26% in 1HFY11. We also model 140bp increase in RM cost, 160bp increase in royalty, translating into 210bp decline in EBITDA margins to 11.2%.

-          The stock trades at trades at 14x FY12 EPS of Rs102.8 and 9.8x FY12 Cash EPS of Rs146.9. Maintain Buy with a target price of Rs1,763 (~12x FY12 Cash PE).

Motilal Oswal: M&M: Sep-10 volumes below estimate at 52,658

M&M: Sep-10 volumes below estimate at 52,658 (est 55,400), up 17% YoY (~24% MoM); Buy

-          M&M’s volumes grew 17% YoY (24% MoM) to 52,658 units (v/s est 55,400), driven by strong growth in UVs and 3Ws.

-          UV volumes improved 19.6% YoY (24.6% MoM) to 27,103 units (v/s est 26,000), driven by newly launched small trucks, Gio and Maximmo. The management indicated that Maximmo truck has been launched in North region, where it has got incremental 25% market share. Also, it recently launched it in one of the southern markets and plans to complete pan-India launch during FY11, which would further drive volumes. Our FY11 estimates factor in 17.5% YoY growth in UV volumes, implying residual monthly run rate of 23,394 units (residual growth of 19%).

-          Tractor volumes grew by just 3% YoY (30% MoM decline) at 17,481 units (v/s est 19,000). Our FY11 estimates factor in 17.5% YoY volume growth for tractors, implying residual monthly run rate of 18,366 units (residual growth of 21%).

-          3-wheeler / small truck volumes grew 41% YoY (~18.3% MoM) to 6,005 units (v/s est 8,500). Our FY11 estimates factor in 47% volume growth for 3Ws/small truck, implying a residual monthly run rate of 7,806 units (~25% residual growth).

-          Supply-side constraints due to shortage of radial tyres, fuel injection equipments and castings will shave off 8% growth in FY11. Among peers, M&M is the worst hit as its entire portfolio is based on diesel powertrain and shortage of diesel fuel injection system is hurting it the most. The company is planning to import components to dilute these constraints. While it faced constraints in 2QFY11, supply is expected to improve from 3QFY11 onwards.

-          Scooter volumes were at 16,569 units. M&M entered the motorcycle segment with launch of two motorcycles, 110cc bike ‘Stallio’ (starting at Rs41,199 ex-showroom) and 300cc ‘Mojo’ (starting at Rs175,000). It has appointed Aamir Khan (a Bollywood celebrity) as its brand ambassador. Its 2W plant has capacity to make 0.5m motorcycles. Our estimates do not factor in any upside/downside from 2W business.

-          Our estimates factor in 22% volume growth in FY11 (implying residual monthly run rate of 51,438 units) and 60bp decline in EBITDA margins to 15.3%. On a consolidated basis, the stock trades at 12x FY11E of consolidated EPS of Rs57.8 and 10.2x FY12E of consolidated EPS of Rs67.9. Maintain Buy.

ACCENTURE 4QFY10: BFSI, Offshoring trend positives for Indian IT says Motilal Oswal

ACCENTURE 4QFY10: BFSI, discretionary traction and Offshoring trend positives for Indian IT companies

Accenture announced its 4QFY10 and full year results. The company reported revenues of US$5.42b (v/s guidance of US$5.15-5.35b) a decline of 2.7% QoQ (an increase of 5% YoY in US$ and 8% in constant currency - CC). Both consulting (-3.9% QoQ) and outsourcing (-1% QoQ) declined marginally after having rebounded in 3QFY10. Outsourcing is the comparable segment for Indian IT players.

The company guided for FY11 revenue growth rate of 7-10% and EPS growth of 13-16%, at US$3-3.08 (up from 12-15% guidance it provided in its Analyst Conference in April 2010). Accenture expects operating margins in FY11 to remain flattish at 13.6-13.7% (v/s 13.5% in FY10). Revenue growth guidance for 1QFY11 stands at US$5.6-5.8b. Order bookings target in the range of US$25-28b (v/s US$25b in FY10) 

c172a50186a0284d25bbfa5e81f8aaee Comments on a] systems integration b] SAP and Oracle demand and c] Work force realignment towards global delivery network, are all positives for Indian IT players.

1 Strong traction in BFSI, a core vertical for Indian IT with 14% YoY growth in CC – first quarter of double digit growth in 3 years –  a positive trend for Indian IT players. Consulting in BFSI saw 21% YoY growth – an indicator of strong traction in discretionary demand. Infosys (36% BFSI contribution) and TCS (45% BFSI contribution) could be beneficiaries.

Global delivery Network headcount increased from 100,000 in the previous quarter to 116,000, a 16% increase QoQ; confirming strong trend in MNC offshoring – a positive for Mphasis – an HP subsidiary. (Guidance of hiring ~64,000 people in FY11, dominated by hiring across Global Delivery Network). Overall headcount increased from 190,000 to 204,000 in Q4FY10.

1 Continued short term nature of outsourcing deals, caution over the macroeconomic situation and continued sluggishness of the Health and Public Services segment were negatives.

Result highlights

-          The company reported revenues of US$5.42b (v/s guidance of US$5.15-5.35b) a decline of 2.7% QoQ (and increase of 5% YoY in US$ and 8% in CC).

-          Net profit for 4QFY10 was US$445.5m, or 66 cents a share, down from $490m, or 73 cents a share, in the previous quarter, but up from US$255m same quarter previous year, which was lesser on US$256m restructuring charge. It reported EPS of US$0.66 (decline of 9.5% QoQ but up 69% YoY due to restructuring charge in 4QFY09).

-          The from EMEA were US$2.2b, up 6% YoY in constant currency (but decline of 3% in US$ terms) after many quarters of decline

-          New bookings during the quarter stood at US$6.5b, with US$3.5b in consulting and US$3b in outsourcing.

-          Guidance of hiring number similar to that in FY10. The company’s gross hiring in FY10 was of the order of 64,000 people. Accenture currently employs 204,000 people. Attrition remained flat at 17% QoQ.

CONSULTING AND OUTSOURCING DECLINE MARGINALLY AFTER REBOUND IN 3QFY10                               ACCENTURE GROWTH DIFFERENTIAL TO INFOSYS (YOY) CONTINUES TO WIDEN

                         

*Aug-10 corresponds to Sep-10 expectations for Infosys

Key positives

-          Strong traction in BFSI, a core vertical for Indian IT with 14% YoY growth in CC – first quarter of double digit growth in 3 years – is a positive trend for Indian IT players. Consulting in BFSI saw 21% growth – an indicator strong discretionary traction. Infosys (36% BFSI contribution) and TCS (45% BFSI contribution) could be beneficiaries

-          Outlook of 7% to 10% CC terms growth in FY11 (v/s guidance of -3% to 1% growth in FY10), indicates improvement in demand environment.

-          The company expects greater shift towards global delivery network, which currently has 116,000 people (v/s 100,000 last quarter). Accenture guided at an addition of a number similar to FY10 (64,000) in FY11, majority of which would be in its Global Delivery Network. We see this as greater acceptance of the offshoring trend. Though a repercussion would be increased competition for Indian IT players from MNCs. We believe Mphasis (HP subsidiary) could be a direct beneficiary of this trend in a scenario of significant upcoming deal renegotiations.  

Key negatives

-          Outsourcing deals continued to be of short term duration, implying larger deals may still be some time away.

-          Outlook on macro environment continues to be cautiously positive on a mixed set of data.